DRUNKENOMICS

Just a heads up, we do get pretty political at the 38:50 mark. We couldn't cower away from addressing the economic implications of certain political decisions made on the Hill. Nonetheless, Q2 is officially in the books as we say goodbye to June (great band by the way, Goodbye June). July is going to be a daunting month for the economy as we head deeper into QT, go into another earnings cycle, see June's inflation report, await the conclusions of the next Fed meeting, and see Q2 GDP results. Brace y'allselves.

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The Fed once again reversed itself by raising interest rates by 75 basis points even after saying that was out of the question after the last meeting. So here we are, we have a Fed that's playing from behind out of desperation to recover whatever credibility they have left. And yes, they are somehow in charge of controlling money supply and unemployment. Godspeed y'all.

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So now we're in a situation where everyone is looking to the Fed to solve inflation issues. Am I the only one that finds that incredibily discomforting? Also, am I the only one that notices that every projection, forecast, and timeline the Fed makes lasts about 3 days? In the Fed we (don't) trust.

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Now that the 10-year yield is hovering around 3%, the discount rate for equities need re-evaluating. Not to mention, surging commodity prices and supply chain bottlenecks are really cutting into profit margins and company forecasts. Even with this gloom, the markets seem to be consolidating right now; althought no one knows exactly what for. What will be the catalyst for a break out and which direction will it be in?

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Our friend Luke Lloyd, as seen on Fox Business, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, & TD Ameritrade Network, joins us this week for multiple drams of bourbon. Naturally, once properly liquored up, we began discussing the state of the economy, job market, the Federal Reserve, and whether or not we're in the middle of a recession. Always nice catching up with an old friend!

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The consumer sentiment index came in at it's 12-year lows upon the release of April's print. Although the index doesn't tell the whole economic story, it does have it's influence on inventories, manufacturing output, and even employment. So how is this thing measured and how significant is it to our GDP?

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Food shortages around the world have motivated countries to ban commodity exports. First with Indonesian palm oil, then Indian wheat, and now we have a long list of over a doxen countries banning food exports. As if supply chain woes and inflation haven't been bad enough, the world has come to enacting comprehensive protectionism.

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So...how's navigating the carnage since the FOMC meeting been treating you? Seriously though, the bottom is insanely tough to predict and the markets have seen enough dead-cat bounces to make every dip look appealing. But godspeed to all you econoholics, I hope we can put our minds together and time the bottom!

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So...Elon Musk buys Twitter and Disney is in a politcal war with the governor of Florida all in the midst of Q1 earnings season. What a time to have megacap exposure in the markets...if only there was a way hedge against all this uncertainty.

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