DRUNKENOMICS

Remember when the Fed said inflation was transitory 3 years ago? Funny how that thesis played out. From there, remember when last fall & winter when the Fed talked about how much progress they made on inflation? Also funny how that thesis played out when revisions came around. Now, the Fed is boasting about the strength of the economy. This time, I must admit...they're really making me nervous.

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Welp. I finally did it; I had enough drinks and tried to solve all the world's problems while the mics were hot. Sorry if the ideas suck, but at least we were able to talk about the recent inflation print, elections among some of the BRICS countries, and the Fed meeting from earlier today. But seriously, it'd be nice to have a world where we didn't all depend on the Fed to solve the problems they indirectly create.

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As another wave of graduates enter the work force, we try our best after a few drams and brews to provide our encouragement to our econoholics as they go about their job search. But first, we talked about some geopolitical suspicions along with some factors that potentially keeping investors awake at night...at least according to a Goldman Sachs survey.

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Another drink leading to another conversation about the Federal Reserve; especially since this is the first time we drank together since the May Fed meeting. But it's funny how volatile markets are whenever anyone from the Fed speaks in a public setting. It seems like all markets care about anymore is their progress on taming inflation.

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Happy Fed week everybody! Or is it unhappy? Either way, we can all agree that the Fed's fight against inflation is starting to look like the The Battle of the Morannon in Lord of the Rings, except without the help of the ring being destroyed. Other facilities are being used in efforts to tame inflation, especially the unwinding of the balance sheet, but it all begs the question: what's the point?

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So...if you've been paying any attention to the markets lately, you might've noticed that there has been some major volatility lately. Most of this can probably be explained by the recent hawkish Fed posturing that took place back in the first week of the month. Though this outlook didn't come as a huge surprise to us, the bond markets seemed to be totally caught off guard as bond yields shot up; even in the high quality space. I guess it's a good time to pour ourselves a stiff one...

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It's pretty easy to have a robust economy and inflated housing market when the government deficit is still running rampant and has no real signs of slowing down. Additionally, core inflation has been revised upward, likely indicating that the Fed is slightly further away from their goal of taming inflation. But while we're here, cheers to the middle class.

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And not the corporate kind, but the kind as tax payers to the government. Anyways, more & more data is suggesting that the broader economy is resilient, giving the Fed no reason to lower rates (as we've seen today). However, as the debt maturity wall approaches, the Fed or Federal Government may be forced to take on other easing measures to mitigate some debt reinvestment risk from the maturity wall. Granted, any of their solutions usually always leads to more problems or higher taxes, which is why I want my clawback.

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AI Optimism has certainly led to some unusual price action in the stock markets. As a result, it seems as though the volatility skew has flipped on its head & shifted over to the call side of the options chain, driven by FOMO. But while we're still talking about AI, is this something that's even actionable? How long will it take to implement? And does it have the potential to wreck the consumer base?

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The Fab Four/Mag Seven, as we all know, has really spearheaded the recent strength and momentum in the major markets. But could there potentially be some risks or external factors that could potentially arrest their momentum? Well, of course there are; but on the other hand, they could also not ever come to fruition. Also, retail sales number for January are noteworthy; you get a chance to look at them yet?

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