DRUNKENOMICS

Well...at the time this episode was being recorded, there was still a 'speakerless House.' Of course, in an uncharacteristic fashion, they managed to elect a speaker in Mike Johnson within a day of this being recorded; but congrats on getting something done finally. Most of our drams this week, however, was consumed to the discussion of which broad asset class might outperform in the next 12 months (not financial advice) given the headwinds and tailwinds we're seeing along with what the talking heads on Wall Street are talking about. I'll put a reminder in here to check if our thesis actually came to fruition.

Finnd us on Twitter (X), Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL

Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com

Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics

Stay Drunkenomical y’all!

I guess...having a 'speaker-less' house is pretty fun. It's at least funny to observe the kind of clown show we have at our nation's capitol. In case you missed it, Kevin McCarthy was ousted a couple weeks ago from his speakership position and Jim Jordan was the front-runner to fill the void. But somehow, even his political weight can't get him voted in. Then of course, we had a pretty solid inflation print that was spearheaded by rising energy prices. Let's see if the Fed will try to take mattes into their own hands on that end.

Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL

Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com

Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics

Stay Drunkenomical y’all!

CPI data, Fed forecasts, Job Numbers, those are all important figures to pay attention to in terms of global macroeconomics, but it pales in comparison in total importance at times. In case you missed it, there was a very tragic war that broke out in Israel this weekend. Although there are some economic implications, it pales in comparison to the human cost taking place and the human right violations being executed by the terrorist organization that is Hamas. So pardon us for being a day late and being so sobering on our drinking podcast, but this one's rough. Thoughts and prayers for Israel 🇮🇱

Find us on Twitter (X), Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL

Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com

Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics

Stay Drunkenomical y’all!

Welp...we've officially made it to the last quarter of the year; and what a year it's been. Because we're all awake now that September has ended, we can expect to see CPI data come in similar to the way energy stocks performed last month. If you were asleep for the month like Billie Joe of Green Day, I'll fill you in and let you know that energy, particularly oil, had quite a run; which means, I'm not feeling optimistic about inflation data. Also, happy trails Kevin McCarthy.

Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL

Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com

Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics

Stay Drunkenomical y’all!

As the Fed President has mentioned in his presser today, the economy still has yet to see the affects of the tightening monetary policy from last year. Pair that with employment and inflation data that just came in, it shows that the Fed potentially still has room to enact further tightening. Granted, equities and especially fixed income markets are begging for some relief; which means this tug of war will probably result in absolutely nothing happening in Washington this week.

Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL

Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com

Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics

Stay Drunkenomical y’all!

I'm beating myself up for not coming up with the question earlier...but why is the Fed so obsessed the the 2% inflation rate? Historically, inflation has seen an average rate of about 4%. Granted, that does include some difficult cycles of price increases; but that accounted for, is that 2% target rate worth achieving even if it does crater the economy and wage growth? Also, what's this I hear about capital requirements going up?

Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL

Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com

Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics

Stay Drunkenomical y’all!

It seems like the weeks spend digesting the Jackson Hole Symposium turned out to be a real bummer. The Street pretty much decided to focus on the Fed's commitment to that 2% target inflation rate and could see plenty of hurdles we need to navigate to get there. Additionally, we also wanted to talk a little about Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities aka TIPS. It's kind of a foreign subject to some people in terms of how it works, so wanted to discuss how it fits in the world of floating rate bonds.

Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL

Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com

Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics

Stay Drunkenomical y’all!

#Finance #Economics #Economy #FederalReserve #Bonds #stocks

Well so much for that market euphoria. A lot of market observationists were really expecting a Fed victory lap at the Jackson Hole symposium after CPI came in under the Fed Funds rate for multiple consecutive months. However, Jerome Powell expressed a much different sentiment, saying in his speech that their job is far from over and that they're still aiming for that 2% inflation target. Not the worst outcome given that no one's feeling good about the economy; however, not the best outcome since the people that "ruined" the economy when they thought they were fixing it, are still committed to deploying solutions to fix the economy.

Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL

Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com

Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics

Stay Drunkenomical y’all!

As we continue to harp on China for producing less than promising economic data, we also need to observe some promising economic data here in the U.S. With CPI coming in at below 4%, the idea of a soft landing achieved is certainly not off the table. Granted, the idea of a looming rolling recession still hovers over this economic environment, but there's certainly less reason to be scared. However, across the Pacific; the narrative drastically different. China's economic numbers seem far less than promising which could result in a disruption in the supply chain. How you ask?

Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL

Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com

Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics

Stay Drunkenomical y’all!

Some very surprising economic data overseas came in earlier this week; but for sake of continuity, lets start with last week. Tech earnings coming in strong (for the most part) furthered echoed the resiliency of the U.S. consumer base. From there, JOLTS and non-farm payrolls came in weaker than expected giving way for the Fed to potentially pivot; combine that with credit card debt reaching all time highs, you might have a decent story as to why the U.S. consumer still has some fire power. Last but not least, China imports & exports...holy sh*t what a jarring report.

Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL

Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com

Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics

Stay Drunkenomical y’all!