DRUNKENOMICS

So...we've been on our good news bears train for a bit now; but with recent economic data released along with us all surviving the first Fed week of 2024, we may find ourselves back in a situation where good news is bad news. With numbers coming in strong, this leaves the Fed more room to be hawkish (which is what I meant at the 30min mark when I misspoke), meaning tightness around financial markets. Also happy almost S&P 5k.

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As we approach a unique business cycle where the economy is seemingly strong despite inflation pressures, the walls may seemingly be closing in as this giant debt maturity wall approaches. Economists believe this may compel the Fed to step in, but who says that's even within their job description. On the bright side, markets as a whole seem optimistic about the massive cash balance still left on the sidelines...

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Welcome to 2024 everyone, hope you all had a great holiday season! Because we have yet to see any sort of "landing" in 2023, hopefully we can see a good economic resolution and turning point in 2024. Either way, we're still on our good news bears train because why not. But with the bulk of cash uninvested on the sidelines along with the Federal reserve potentially cutting rates a few times this year, we could be ok. At least I hope so :)

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Another December to remember thanks to this post Fed Santa Claus rally. However, tensions in the Middle East brewing could finally get us off our Good News Bears train. In any event, it's been a great year y'all! Loved drinking with you guys & we'll see you again in the new year!

Cheers,

Drunkenomics

Welcome to probably the last big week of the year in terms of economic data being reported. With CPI and another Fed meeting coming out this week, we decided to remain cheery as we head into our holiday season. All that being said, we remain in the camp that a lot of economic troubles are easing due to economic and consumer resilience; which means the Fed will most likely not waver in terms of their hawkish posturing. But, more to come as we head towards the last presentation of the year! Cheers,

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First off, hope you all had a great week off; also, we had to amend some things we said after a few drinks last episode. Something about IRA's being tax-sheltered. Anyways, with all the doom news going on, we had to provide some good news to talk people on the consumer level off the ledge. However, there are things to be concerned about. Although, for the most part, the economy is in pretty decent shape. So cheers to that.

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It's Thanksgiving already?? I guess with time flying so fast, we all could probably have a dram to retirement plans and ways we can make sure we're financially stable when we get to that point in our lives where we think about how time flew by so fast. Therefore, we had some gravy backs to the three pillars of retirement along with the current state of Social Security. No need to repeat this at the dinner table this week unless you really want to...

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There you have it; CPI came in slightly lower than expected, but Fed posturing still implores the economy to put up with a "higher for longer" environment. With that, a shower thought I had recently made me think about the millennial plight; being that we are by far the most indebted generation with not only our own debt to service, but also the debt of the extremely fiscally irresponsible federal government. And the interest expense on that will be other worldly.

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Happy week after Fed week everyone! Hope you were all able to recover swiftly from your hangovers this last weekend because this US Government balance sheet is nothing but sobering. Upon viewing the Fed day interview with Jeff Gundlach on CNBC last week, it looks like the US consumer along with the US Government has a serious debt problem that a "higher for longer" attitude will only add fuel to the implosion. Not trying to call wolf...just saying...

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Well, the Fed decision is out now; looks like the tone and stance of the Fed is still pretty hawkish pending some sort of major economic catastrophe. But the main question now becomes: when does the Fed their terminal rate? Also, when will the Fed officially begin lowering their effective rate? Seems like money managers all over the world are trying to get a pulse on this. That and the UAW strike.

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Stay Drunkenomical y’all!