EA Forum Podcast (All audio)

SUMMARY:

ALLFED is launching an emergency appeal on the EA Forum due to a serious funding shortfall. Without new support, ALLFED will be forced to cut half our budget in the coming months, drastically reducing our capacity to help build global food system resilience for catastrophic scenarios like nuclear winter, a severe pandemic, or infrastructure breakdown. ALLFED is seeking $800,000 over the course of 2025 to sustain its team, continue policy-relevant research, and move forward with pilot projects that could save lives in a catastrophe. As funding priorities shift toward AI safety, we believe resilient food solutions remain a highly cost-effective way to protect the future. If you’re able to support or share this appeal, please visit allfed.info/donate.

FULL ARTICLE:

I (David Denkenberger) am writing alongside two of my team-mates, as ALLFED's co-founder, to ask for your support. This is the first time in Alliance [...]

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Outline:

(02:40) The case for ALLFED's work, and why we think maintaining full current capacity is valuable

(04:14) How this connects to AI and other risks

(05:39) What we're asking for

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First published:

April 16th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/K7hPmcaf2xEZ6F4kR/allfed-emergency-appeal-help-us-raise-usd800-000-to-avoid-1

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

We’ve written a new report on the threat of AI-enabled coups.

I think this is a very serious risk – comparable in importance to AI takeover but much more neglected.

In fact, AI-enabled coups and AI takeover have pretty similar threat models. To see this, here's a very basic threat model for AI takeover:

1. Humanity develops superhuman AI
2. Superhuman AI is misaligned and power-seeking
3. Superhuman AI seizes power for itself

And now here's a closely analogous threat model for AI-enabled coups:

1. Humanity develops superhuman AI
2. Superhuman AI is controlled by a small group
3. Superhuman AI seizes power for the small group

While the report focuses on the risk that someone seizes power over a country, I think that similar dynamics could allow someone to take over the world. In fact, if someone wanted to take over the world, their best strategy might well be to first stage an AI-enabled [...]

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Outline:

(02:37) Summary

(03:29) An AI workforce could be made singularly loyal to institutional leaders

(05:01) AI could have hard-to-detect secret loyalties

(06:43) A few people could gain exclusive access to coup-enabling AI capabilities

(09:44) Mitigations

(12:58) Vignette

The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

April 16th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Tw9vGNKjQzF9YGFa4/ai-enabled-coups-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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This is a link post.

This is a linkpost for the above expression of interest, but I want to add for this audience:

If you

• Watch a lot of shortform (who amongst us...)
• Have a sense of what's successful on platforms like TikTok, YouTube Shorts and Instagram
• Learn and work quickly

Then I think you'll be able to figure out Capcut, Descript and similar very quickly and be a good fit for this even if you've never done it before.

Right now we want to move fast, make a lot of videos and see what works. Having EA and AI context is especially great since you'll be able to find the links, screenshots and captions that best fit the content, though it's not required.

Summary

We’re looking for a video editor who can create excellent shortform videos about transformative AI and its risks given footage, audio and notes.

Location [...]

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Outline:

(01:02) Summary

(01:37) Help make spectacular videos that reach a huge audience.

(01:58) Why this role?

(02:42) Responsibilities

(02:58) About you

(03:34) Role details

(03:44) Application process

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First published:

April 15th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nSHrJhkpP9RvS8MWF/contracting-opportunity-be-a-shortform-video-editor-for-the

Linkpost URL:
https://80000hours.org/2025/04/expression-of-interest-shortform-video-editing-contractor/

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Or on the types of prioritization, their strengths, pitfalls, and how EA should balance them

The cause prioritization landscape in EA is changing. Prominent groups have shut down, others have been founded, and everyone is trying to figure out how to prepare for AI. This is the first in a series of posts examining the state of cause prioritization and proposing strategies for moving forward.

 Executive Summary

• Performing prioritization work has been one of the main tasks, and arguably achievements, of EA.
• We highlight three types of prioritization: Cause Prioritization, Within-Cause (Intervention) Prioritization, and Cross-Cause (Intervention) Prioritization.
• We ask how much of EA prioritization work falls in each of these categories:
  • Our estimates suggest that, for the organizations we investigated, the current split is 89% within-cause work, 2% cross-cause, and 9% cause prioritization.
  • We then explore strengths and potential pitfalls of each level:
    • Cause [...]

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Outline:

(00:37) Executive Summary

(03:09) Introduction: Why prioritize? Have we got it right?

(05:18) The types of prioritization

(06:54) A snapshot of EA

(16:45) The Types of Prioritization Evaluated

(16:57) Cause Prioritization

(20:56) Within-Cause Prioritization

(25:12) Cross-Cause Prioritization

(30:07) Summary Table

(30:53) What factors should push us towards one or another?

(37:27) Possible Next Steps

(39:44) Conclusion

(40:58) Acknowledgements

(41:01) en-US-AvaMultilingualNeural__ Modern geometric logo design with text RETHINK PRIORITIES

(41:55) Appendix: Strengths and Pitfalls of Each Type

(42:07) Within-Cause Prioritization Strengths

(42:12) Decision-Making Support

(42:37) Comparability of Outputs

(44:18) Disciplinarity Advantages

(45:45) Responsiveness to Evidence

(46:48) Movement Building

(48:06) Within-Cause Prioritization Weaknesses and Potential Pitfalls

(48:12) Responsiveness to Evidence

(50:54) Decision-Making Support

(52:45) Cross-Cause Prioritization Strengths:

(53:06) Decision-Making Support

(54:49) Responsiveness to Evidence

(56:08) Movement Building

(56:22) Comparability of Outputs

(56:45) Decision-Making Support

(57:14) Cross-Cause Prioritization Weaknesses and Potential Pitfalls

(57:20) Comparability of Outputs

(58:01) Disciplinarity Advantages

(58:41) Movement Building

(59:09) Decision-Making Support

(01:00:27) Cause Prioritization Strengths

(01:00:32) Decision-Making Support

(01:02:01) Responsiveness to Evidence

(01:02:52) Movement Building

(01:03:28) Cause Prioritization Weaknesses and Potential Pitfalls

(01:04:28) Decision-Making Support

(01:06:08) Responsiveness to Evidence

The original text contained 23 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

April 16th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZPdZv8sHuYndD8xhJ/doing-prioritization-better-2

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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This is a link post.

There is some (inconclusive) evidence that biodiversity conservation, replacing dirt flooring, and reducing environmental noise exposure might be much more cost effective areas for global health funding than we currently price in. These findings are, in my view, 'big if true' - with a big 'if'.

If you know of additional important research on these topics or are working on any of these areas, I'd be interested in your thoughts!

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First published:

April 15th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/RroW26kQfFqjsoK5f/big-if-true-three-health-interventions-worth-a-closer-look

Linkpost URL:
https://newsletter.deenamousa.com/p/big-if-true

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

The original Map of AI Existential Safety became a popular reference tool within the community after its launch in 2023. Based on user feedback, we decided that it was both useful enough and had enough room for improvement that it was worth creating a v2 with better organization, usability, and visual design. Today we’re excited to announce that the new map is live at AISafety.com/map.

Similar to the original map, it provides a visual overview of the key organizations, programs, and projects in the Al safety ecosystem. Listings are separated into 16 categories, each corresponding to an area on the map:

• Advocacy
• Blog
• Capabilities research
• Career support
• Conceptual research
• Empirical research
• Forecasting
• Funding
• Governance
• Newsletter
• Podcast
• Research support
• Resource
• Strategy
• Training and education
• Video

We think there's value in being able to view discontinued projects, so we’ve included a graveyard for those.

Below the map is also a [...]

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First published:

April 15th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/QmGy3ZNgrt9Z52fks/map-of-ai-safety-v2

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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This work has come out of my Undergraduate dissertation. I haven't shared or discussed these results much before putting this up. Message me if you'd like the code :)

TLDR

• Life satisfaction (LS) appears flat over time, despite massive economic growth — the “Easterlin Paradox.”
• Some argue that happiness is rising, but we’re reporting it more conservatively — a phenomenon called rescaling.
• I test rescaling using long-run German panel data, looking at whether the association between reported happiness and three “get-me-out-of-here” actions (divorce, job resignation, and hospitalisation) changes over time.
• If people are getting happier (and rescaling is occuring) the probability of these actions should become less linked to reported LS — but they don’t.
• I find little evidence of rescaling. We should probably take self-reported happiness scores at face value.

1. Background: The Happiness Paradox

Humans today live longer, richer, and healthier lives in history — yet [...]

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Outline:

(00:25) TLDR

(01:19) 1. Background: The Happiness Paradox

(02:50) 2. What is Rescaling ?

(04:31) 3. My Approach: Use Actions, Not Memories

(06:07) Method & Data

(06:52) 4. Results

(06:55) Exits Actions & Happiness with a Life Domain

(08:04) Exits Actions & Overall Happiness

(08:52) 5. Conclusion

(09:43) More Stuff to do here

The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.

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First published:

April 15th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/poPG5xpH4uGBJzv4Z/some-evidence-that-people-aren-t-getting-happier-over-time

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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The CEA Events Team is hiring for three program lead positions: EAGx Program Lead, AI Special Events Lead, and Meta Special Events Lead.

If you're passionate about building the effective altruism community and want to help us create more impactful discussion spaces, apply by this Thursday, April 17th, 11:59 pm BST!*

The initial application is relatively light, you can apply for all three roles by applying to one and expressing interest in the other two.

*Note: these roles have been open for several weeks; this is just a final reminder.

Why join the Events team?

The CEA Events team creates high-quality discussion spaces that connect, inform, and inspire people in ways that help them have a greater positive impact on the world. We're expanding three of our key programs:

• EAGx—organizing conferences around the world for those familiar with EA concepts to build their networks and find high-impact [...]

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Outline:

(00:51) Why join the Events team?

(02:58) Who are we looking for?

(03:40) What are the roles?

(04:57) Other information

(05:22) How to apply

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First published:

April 15th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HXkLpG7DB3drQmpF3/the-cea-events-team-is-hiring-for-three-program-lead

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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This is a link post.

Hi, I'm sharing this blog post I wrote with Giving What We Can about my experience earning to give. I hope it's helpful to others trying to figure out how much to donate.

tl;dr:

• A few existential crises prompted me to recalibrate: moving unexpectedly, realizing I had wanted kids, the 2024 election and climate change, homophobia in my personal life, and career anxiety.
• Julia Wise's writings and Susan Wolf's essay "Moral Saints" greatly helped me.
• I found a more sustainable balance by shifting from a framework of "each starfish matters" (maximization) to "help the starfish I can," which better recognizes my limits.
• I'm still excited about effective giving, the 10% Pledge, and especially effective volunteering!

Feel free to ask me any questions, DM me, or email me at ericarellano [at] me.com!

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First published:

April 14th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XtidprjXxitKvmbXL/my-experience-going-from-donating-60-to-10-of-my-income

Linkpost URL:
https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/en/blog/recalibrating-for-sustainable-giving

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

This is a link post.

None of this article was written with AI assistance.

Introduction

There have been many, many, many attempts to lay out scenarios of AI taking over or destroying humanity. What they tend to have in common is an assumption that our doom will be sealed as a result of AI becoming significantly smarter and more powerful than the best humans, eclipsing us in skill and power and outplaying us effortlessly.

In this article, I’m going to do a twist: I’m going to write a story (and detailed analysis) about a scenario where humanity is disempowered and destroyed by AI that is dumber than us, due to a combination of hype, overconfidence, greed and anti-intellectualism. This is a scenario where instead of AI bringing untold abundance or tiling the universe with paperclips, it brings mediocrity, stagnation, and inequality.

This is not a forecast. This story probably won’t [...]

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Outline:

(00:18) Introduction

(01:58) The story of Slopworld

(22:05) Slopworld ingredients

(46:42) Analysis

(50:40) Conclusion

The original text contained 5 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

April 14th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Sd3X5mWAEzyNaPamT/slopworld-2035-the-dangers-of-mediocre-ai

Linkpost URL:
https://titotal.substack.com/p/slopworld-2035-the-dangers-of-mediocre

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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