Friday 16th June 2023

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The ECB hit expectations with their rate rise overnight, says NAB’s Ken Crompton. Markets have responded to Christine Lagarde’s clear expectation that there will be another rise at the next meeting. So, we have a slowing economy (technically in recession) with a central bank lifting rates. In the US, where the Fed has also signalled one or two more rises, we saw weaker data overnight, raising the question, will they actually have to go that far? Whilst in Australia the tight labour market – made tighter with higher job numbers yesterday – adds to the challenge for the RBA. And in China, the slowdown is set to promote more fiscal and monetary stimulus. Could that help push the Aussie dollar back into the seventies?

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