New data indicates that American manufacturing is shrinking. The index of leading economic indicators has been signaling recession for more than a year. But what about consumer spending? Or the tight labor market? We called up some forecasters to sift through this pile of data and talk about the challenges of predicting where the economy is going right now. Plus: We meet the AI chatbots that lawyers are already using and take a closer look at how the economic boom in Houston is leaving the working class behind. But first, our panel of experts recaps a big week for the Federal Reserve.