Job openings surged to 7.6 million in April 2026, the highest in nearly two years, complicating the Federal Reserve's path forward. Lucas and Luna dig into the JOLTS data, unpacking why a hot labor market doesn't necessarily mean rate hikes ahead. They connect the dots to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — core PCE at 3.3% — and explore how geopolitical shocks like the Iran war are distorting the numbers. With the yield curve still inverted and capacity utilization ticking up, the hosts ask whether the economy is sending mixed signals or just rebalancing. A must-listen for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves mid-2026.

#JOLTS #JobOpenings #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #CorePCE #Inflation #LaborMarket #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #YieldCurve #CapacityUtilization #IranWar #GeopoliticalRisk #Business #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why producer prices—specifically the producer price index—may be a more accurate leading indicator of Fed policy than the consumer price index. Using fresh data from June 2026, they explain how rising input costs at the factory level are filtering through to core inflation, even as CPI shows a slight cooldown. Lucas traces the transmission mechanism from PPI to CPI, highlighting recent energy inflation distortions from the Iran war, while Luna questions whether the Fed's focus on core PCE misses the pipeline pressure. A must-listen for investors and business leaders trying to read the macro tea leaves.

#ProducerPrices #PPI #CPI #FedPolicy #Inflation #CoreInflation #EnergyInflation #IranWar #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #FOMC #SupplyChain #InputCosts #BusinessCycle #FexingoBusiness #EconomicsPodcast #BusinessPodcast

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In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore why producer price index (PPI) data may offer a timelier signal of inflationary pressure than the consumer-focused CPI. With core PCE running at 3.3% annually and energy inflation stubbornly persistent due to the Iran conflict, the hosts examine how input costs for manufacturers—such as energy, raw materials, and logistics—are feeding into wholesale prices before reaching consumers. They reference April's PPI report showing a 0.5% month-over-month increase in final demand goods, and discuss how this pipeline pressure complicates the Fed's rate decision. Drawing on comments from Fed officials Kashkari and Goolsbee, the episode argues that PPI's predictive power is often overlooked in favor of lagging consumer price data. Tune in for a fresh take on inflation indicators and what they mean for your portfolio.

#ProducerPriceIndex #PPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #CorePCE #EnergyInflation #IranWar #Manufacturing #SupplyChain #WholesalePrices #EconomicIndicators #MonetaryPolicy #Kashkari #Goolsbee #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MacroData

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In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the growing gap between nominal and real GDP growth. As of Q1 2026, nominal GDP hit $31.82 trillion while real GDP (chained 2017 dollars) reached $24.15 trillion. That $7.67 trillion spread reflects nearly four years of cumulative inflation. The hosts explain why nominal GDP captures total spending power in the economy—including inflation—while real GDP strips out price changes to show actual output. They explore how this divergence affects everything from tax revenue to corporate earnings to household purchasing power. With the Fed still fighting above-target core PCE inflation at 3.3% annually and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.38%, understanding which GDP measure to watch is critical for investors and policymakers. Lucas traces how nominal GDP growth outpaced real GDP growth through the post-pandemic recovery, and why the gap matters for your portfolio. Luna asks the smart questions about whether nominal GDP should get more attention in a high-inflation era. No jargon, no fluff—just a clear, data-driven conversation.

#NominalGDP #RealGDP #GDP #Inflation #CorePCE #CPI #FederalReserve #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #BreakevenInflation #Investing #PortfolioStrategy #USEconomy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #MacroEconomics

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In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the gap between nominal and real GDP growth, using the latest data (Q1 2026 nominal GDP at $31.82 trillion, real at $24.15 trillion) to explain why inflation-adjusted figures can paint a deceptive picture. They discuss how nominal growth signals corporate revenue potential, while real growth reveals actual economic expansion. With core PCE inflation stuck at 3.3% and energy costs elevated due to the Iran war, the hosts break down what investors should watch: nominal GDP as a proxy for top-line earnings growth, and real GDP for productivity trends. They also touch on capacity utilisation at 76.1% as a leading indicator. The episode includes a brief, organic listener-support mention.

#NominalGDP #RealGDP #Inflation #CorePCE #CapacityUtilisation #GDPGrowth #FedPolicy #IranWar #EnergyInflation #PortfolioStrategy #Economics #MacroData #EarningsGrowth #Investing #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #May2026

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On this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down how the ongoing Iran war is creating a distortion in core inflation readings. With the Fed's preferred PCE gauge showing core inflation at 3.3% annually, but energy prices adding $450 to the average household's annual costs, they examine whether stripping out energy prices still makes sense when the shock is prolonged. They also look at capacity utilisation hitting 76.1% — a level that historically signals pricing power — and ask whether the Fed is looking at the right numbers. A focused conversation on measurement, war, and the limits of core inflation in 2026.

#IranWar #InflationData #CoreCPI #PCE #FederalReserve #EnergyPrices #CapacityUtilisation #EconomicIndicators #GDP #CPI #PMI #Economics #MacroData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #LucasAndLuna #InflationMeasurement

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This episode digs into the JOLTS data released on May 30, 2026, which shows job openings falling to 6.866 million, the lowest since early 2021. Lucas and Luna explore what this decline means for the Fed's rate path—especially with core inflation still running at 3.3 percent and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent. They focus on the puzzle of falling openings without a spike in layoffs, the Beveridge curve shift, and why the Fed may need to see either higher unemployment or a sharper drop in openings to feel confident about cutting rates. The conversation also touches on how the Iran war's energy costs add a layer of uncertainty to the inflation outlook, and whether the labor market is signaling a soft landing or a slow-motion recession.

#JOLTS #JobOpenings #BeveridgeCurve #FedRateOutlook #LaborMarket #Inflation #CoreInflation #Unemployment #EconomicIndicators #MonetaryPolicy #SoftLanding #EnergyInflation #IranWar #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #FedWatch

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Lucas and Luna dive into the April 2026 inflation and wage data, showing that while average hourly earnings rose to $37.40, core CPI climbed to 335.4 and core PCE hit a 3.3% annual rate. They explain why real wage growth has turned negative for most workers, how the Iran war energy shock is compounding the squeeze, and what this means for consumer spending and Fed policy. A data-driven look at the gap between headline wage numbers and actual purchasing power.

#WageGrowth #CoreInflation #RealWages #AverageHourlyEarnings #CoreCPI #CorePCE #FederalReserve #IranWar #EnergyInflation #ConsumerSpending #LaborMarket #PurchasingPower #Inflation2026 #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #WageSqueeze

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In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why energy inflation is skewing the way we read core CPI and the Fed's preferred PCE gauge. With the Iran war pushing household energy costs up by nearly $450 annually, the hosts examine how stripping out food and energy might be masking persistent price pressures in other sectors. They explore the gap between core CPI (3.3% annual rate in April) and the headline number, discuss whether the Fed's focus on core measures is still valid during a geopolitical energy shock, and look at what the breakeven inflation rate of 2.39% signals about market expectations. Packed with specific data from the latest releases, this episode offers a practical guide to interpreting inflation reports when energy prices are anything but normal.

#CoreCPI #EnergyInflation #IranWar #FederalReserve #PCEPriceIndex #InflationData #BreakevenInflation #ConsumerPrices #GeopoliticalShocks #FedPolicy #Kashkari #Goolsbee #EconomicIndicators #CPI #MacroData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics

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Business inventories have surged to $2.7 trillion, adding a volatile twist to GDP growth. Lucas and Luna break down how inventory accumulation boosted first-quarter growth to 1.6 percent annualized, why the build-up may reverse in coming quarters, and what the 76.1 percent capacity utilisation rate tells us about whether companies are producing ahead of demand or sitting on unsold goods. Drawing on the latest data through April 2026, they explain why inventory cycles are one of the most misunderstood components of GDP and how investors should read the signal without getting whipsawed. A practical look at the real economy behind the headlines.

#GDP #InventoryCycle #CapacityUtilisation #BusinessInventories #SupplyChain #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #FederalReserve #IndustrialProduction #RealGDP #InventoryBuild #WholesaleInventories #RetailInventories #EconomicGrowth #2026Economy #BusinessCycle #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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