Consumer sentiment has hit a record low, even as the stock market rallies. Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect between how Americans feel about the economy and what the hard data says. They examine the University of Michigan sentiment survey's all-time low, the role of inflation expectations, and why the jobs market and GDP growth tell a different story. Using real-time data from May 2026, they unpack the gap between perception and reality, and what it means for the Fed's next move.

#ConsumerSentiment #RecordLow #Inflation #UniversityOfMichigan #FedPolicy #GDPGrowth #JobsMarket #StockMarketRally #EconomicDisconnect #DataAnalysis #Economics #Business #May2026 #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #PodcastDiscussion #MarketPsychology

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As Kevin Warsh is sworn in as Federal Reserve chair on May 22, 2026, the central bank faces a new inflation threat from the Iran war. Lucas and Luna examine Warsh's hawkish academic record, his 2008 crisis experience, and how today's 4.56 percent ten-year Treasury yield and rising CPI of 332.4 constrain his room for error. They explore whether Warsh will break from the Powell playbook by preemptively hiking rates to anchor inflation expectations, or wait for the data to confirm a slowdown. With consumer sentiment at a record low and the ten-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.40, the episode drills into one specific decision: the timing of the next rate move. Listeners will understand why Warsh's first FOMC statement is the most consequential since Volcker's 1979 appointment.

#KevinWarsh #FederalReserve #Inflation #IranWar #InterestRates #CPI #TreasuryYield #FOMC #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicIndicators #TenYearYield #BreakevenInflation #ConsumerSentiment #WarshFed #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData

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In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore how the AI economy is reshaping the American Dream, with a surprising twist for blue-collar workers. Drawing on recent data and a CNBC headline from May 19, 2026, they discuss how automation and AI are not just displacing jobs but also creating new opportunities in manufacturing, logistics, and skilled trades. They examine the latest industrial production index (102.5, up from 101.81), capacity utilization (76.1%), and job openings data (JOLTS at 6,866,000) to show why workers with hands-on skills may be poised to win in this new era. The conversation also touches on the broader macroeconomic context, including the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh and consumer sentiment at a record low. A thoughtful look at who really benefits from technological change.

#AIEconomy #BlueCollarWorkers #AmericanDream #Automation #LaborMarket #IndustrialProduction #CapacityUtilization #JOLTS #KevinWarsh #FederalReserve #EconomicIndicators #Manufacturing #SkilledTrades #TechAndJobs #EconomicData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics

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In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.2, a contraction signal that contradicts strong jobs and GDP data. They dig into the divergence between hard and soft data, what it means for Fed policy under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh, and why markets are pricing in a July rate hike despite a manufacturing slowdown. Using specific data points from May 2026, they explore whether the PMI is noise or a leading indicator, and what the bond market's reaction tells us about investor sentiment.

#ISM #ManufacturingPMI #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #BondMarket #GDP #JobsReport #Inflation #RateHike #EconomicData #SoftData #HardData #Contraction #LeadingIndicator #Economics #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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The bond vigilantes are back and they are already pushing long-term Treasury yields higher even before the Fed meets in July. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down exactly how the 10-year and 30-year yields have climbed over the past week, and why market-based breakeven inflation rates are actually falling. That decoupling — higher nominal yields but lower inflation expectations — means the vigilantes are targeting fiscal deficits and term premium, not just inflation. Lucas walks through what incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will inherit, and why the July FOMC meeting is already being priced in. Luna pushes back with data on real GDP growth and core PCE, asking whether the economy is actually overheating or just normalizing. They land on the key question: will Warsh hike in July to appease the bond market, or will he hold the line?

#BondVigilantes #FederalReserve #TreasuryYields #KevinWarsh #JulyFOMC #InflationExpectations #TermPremium #FiscalDeficit #10YearTreasury #30YearTreasury #BeigeBook #RealGDP #CorePCE #BreakevenInflation #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData

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Lucas and Luna unpack the return of bond vigilantes as the 10-year Treasury yield hits 4.57% and the market prices in a July rate hike. With Kevin Warsh set to be sworn in as Fed chair, they explore how bond market discipline is forcing the Fed's hand, drawing on Ed Yardeni's warning and the latest CPI, PCE, and jobless claims data. They discuss what this means for inflation expectations, the 10-year breakeven rate at 2.44%, and the broader economic outlook for mid-2026.

#BondVigilantes #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #TreasuryYields #InterestRates #Inflation #CPI #PCE #EdYardeni #JulyHike #10YearTreasury #BreakevenRate #JoblessClaims #FOMC #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData

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On the debut episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna tackle the biggest macro story of May 2026: inflation is accelerating again, and the bond market is forcing the Federal Reserve to reverse course. With the CPI hitting 332.4 and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate sitting at 2.48%, traders now see the next Fed move as a hike — not a cut. Lucas breaks down what's driving the resurgence, from sticky core services to the AI investment boom, and explains why the incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh faces an immediate credibility test. Luna presses on the labor market disconnect: unemployment at 4.3% yet job openings are falling. They discuss what the 'bond vigilantes' are signaling and whether the economy can absorb another rate increase without cracking. This is a conversation for listeners who want to read the macro data like a professional — not just the headlines.

#Inflation #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #CPI #BondMarket #InterestRates #EconomicIndicators #GDP #LaborMarket #JOLTS #YieldCurve #BondVigilantes #Economics #MacroData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #PodcastDebut #MonetaryPolicy

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