Lucas and Luna dive into the durable goods orders report, which dropped a surprise 6.2% in April. But they explain why the headline number is misleading—transportation orders can swing wildly. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, actually rose 0.4%. They connect this to the Fed's dilemma: sticky services inflation versus cooling goods demand. With real GDP growth at 1.6% and capacity utilisation creeping up, is the economy sending mixed signals? They also touch on how business inventories are piling up, which could weigh on future production. This episode helps you see past the volatility in monthly data to the underlying trend.

#DurableGoods #BusinessInvestment #CoreCapitalGoods #GDPGrowth #Inflation #FederalReserve #EconomicData #Manufacturing #Inventories #CapacityUtilisation #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #May2026 #DataAnalysis #MacroEconomics

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna break down the difference between the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — and why the Fed prioritises Core PCE. With CPI at 332.4 and Core PCE at 129.3, they explain how each index is constructed, why they diverge, and what that means for the rate path ahead. Plus: a quick look at how breakeven inflation expectations have edged down to 2.39%, even as headline CPI remains sticky. If you've ever wondered why the Fed ignores the number you see in the news, this is your episode.

#CPI #CorePCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #BreakevenInflation #ConsumerPrices #PCEPriceIndex #CoreInflation #SubstitutionBias #FedPolicy #RealEconomy #EconomicsPodcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna explore why capacity utilisation, currently at 76.1 percent, may be a more reliable leading indicator of economic turning points than GDP itself. They discuss the latest industrial production data, the gap between current utilisation and the long-run average, and what this means for inflation and Fed policy in mid-2026. Drawing on historical patterns, including the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, they explain why factories running at 76 percent capacity leave little room for error—and why GDP revisions make it a lagging indicator. A practical guide for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves without getting fooled by noisy quarterly data.

#CapacityUtilisation #IndustrialProduction #GDP #LeadingIndicators #FederalReserve #Inflation #EconomicCycle #Manufacturing #MacroData #BusinessCycle #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #PCE #CPI #JOLTS #LaborMarket

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into capacity utilisation — the often-overlooked metric that reveals whether the economy is running hot or has room to grow. With the latest data showing capacity utilisation at 76.1 percent in April 2026, up from 75.67 in March, Lucas explains why this matters more than the headline GDP number. They explore how capacity constraints are flashing warning signs in sectors like semiconductors and specialty chemicals, even as overall industrial production ticks up. The hosts connect this to the bond market's recent moves — the ten-year yield falling to 4.49 percent — and what it means for Fed policy. Along the way, they touch on the small-cap rally, with the Russell 2000 up over 6 percent in the last five days, as a signal that investors are betting on domestic manufacturing. If you've been confused by mixed economic signals, this episode shows you which number to watch.

#CapacityUtilisation #IndustrialProduction #GDP #FederalReserve #BondMarket #Manufacturing #SmallCaps #Russell2000 #TreasuryYields #Semiconductors #USEconomy #Inflation #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Podcast

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna break down why capacity utilisation — currently at 76.1 percent — is a more reliable forward-looking indicator than GDP or unemployment for gauging inflationary pressure and the next Fed move. Using data from May 2026, they explain how factories running at 76 percent capacity leave room for output without spiking prices, and why a reading above 80 percent has historically preceded rate hikes. The hosts contrast the tame industrial utilisation with a tight labour market and stubborn core CPI of 335.4, arguing that the real story in the macro data is not the headline numbers but the slack or lack thereof. They also touch on the yield curve's recent flattening and what it means for recession odds. A focused, data-driven conversation for listeners who want to read economic indicators like a professional.

#CapacityUtilisation #IndustrialProduction #FederalReserve #Inflation #CoreCPI #GDP #YieldCurve #LabourMarket #JOLTS #NonfarmPayrolls #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #PodcastEpisode #May2026

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into a quietly powerful economic indicator: inventory investment. With real GDP growth at 2.0 percent and business inventories rising to $2.71 trillion, they explore how warehouse shelves are contributing to output—and whether the current build is a sign of confidence or a prelude to a correction. They reference the latest Q1 2026 data, the industrial production index at 102.5, and capacity utilization at 76.1 percent. Along the way, they discuss how inventory cycles amplify GDP swings and why the ratio of inventories to sales matters more than the absolute number. A focused look at a macro data point that often gets overlooked.

#GDP #InventoryInvestment #BusinessInventories #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #RealGDP #IndustrialProduction #CapacityUtilization #SupplyChain #InventoryCycle #GDPComponents #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicPolicy #DataAnalysis #InventoryToSales #Macroeconomics

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — historically a screaming recession signal. But with the S&P 500 near 7,500 and unemployment at 4.3 percent, Lucas and Luna dig into why this time may actually be different. They break down the 10-year minus 2-year spread, the role of term premium, and what the curve's recent flattening tells us about Fed policy and the Iran-war inflation backdrop. Plus: why a 'soft landing' could break the old rules, and what investors should watch next.

#YieldCurve #RecessionSignal #FedPolicy #Inversion #TermPremium #BondMarket #TenYearTreasury #TwoYearTreasury #SoftLanding #HardLanding #IranWar #Inflation #MacroData #FixedIncome #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

While services inflation and consumer sentiment dominate the headlines, industrial production has posted a solid gain in April. Lucas and Luna unpack the latest data: capacity utilisation ticked above 76 percent for the first time in months, and the industrial production index hit 102.5, up from 101.81. They explore what this divergence means for the Fed's next move, whether manufacturing is decoupling from the broader economy, and why investors should watch factory output as a leading indicator. With the ten-year breakeven inflation rate steady at 2.40 percent and the Fed in a holding pattern, this episode argues that the real story in May 2026 might not be consumer pain but quiet industrial strength. A focused, numbers-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves without the noise.

#IndustrialProduction #CapacityUtilisation #FederalReserve #Inflation #Manufacturing #RealEconomy #EconomicData #MacroEconomics #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #IndustrialIndex #FactoryOutput #LeadingIndicators #ServicesSlowdown #RateHikes #EconomicDivergence #TreasuryYields

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into the latest GDP data, breaking down why real GDP growth matters more than the headline nominal figure. With nominal GDP at $31.86 trillion but real growth at just 2% annualized, they explore what this means for wages, productivity, and the Fed's next move. They also examine the divergence between the stock market's rally and the consumer sentiment record low, using the S&P 500's 1% weekly gain and small-cap outperformance to question whether the 'soft landing' narrative holds. Specific examples include the 4.3% unemployment rate and the 10-year breakeven inflation at 2.40%. A practical episode for anyone wanting to read economic data like a pro.

#GDP #RealGDP #NominalGDP #EconomicIndicators #FedPolicy #Inflation #StockMarket #S&P500 #SmallCaps #ConsumerSentiment #SoftLanding #WageGrowth #Productivity #MacroData #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 8 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo: Lucas and Luna dig into the latest JOLTS data from March 2026, which shows job openings fell to 6.866 million, down from 6.922 million. They explore why this decline hasn't triggered a rise in the unemployment rate — which held steady at 4.3 percent — and what the Beveridge Curve tells us about the labor market's new normal. The hosts draw on the Federal Reserve's own research to explain how the post-pandemic matching efficiency may have structurally improved, meaning the old rule of thumb that a drop in vacancies leads to layoffs no longer applies. They also connect the tightening labor market to the Fed's current dilemma: inflation is still sticky, but the labor market isn't breaking. This episode is essential listening for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves without the panic.

#JOLTS #JobOpenings #BeveridgeCurve #LaborMarket #UnemploymentRate #FederalReserve #MatchingEfficiency #QuitsRate #HiringRate #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #GDP #CPI #PMI #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #LucasAndLuna

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo