Ken Wilcox, former CEO of Silicon Valley Bank, discusses his book "The China Business Conundrum" and the challenges of doing business in China. He explains the concept of "one bed, two dreams," highlighting the disparity in goals between western and Chinese joint venture partners. Wilcox details his bank's entry into China, emphasizing the strategic invitations and control exerted by the Chinese Communist Party. He recounts the extensive regulations and control mechanisms, including a three-year restriction on using Chinese currency. Despite the challenges, Wilcox values the experience, noting the complex interdependence between the U.S. and China.

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at [email protected]  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. 

About this episode’s guest: Ken Wilcox

Ken Wilcox was the CEO of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) from 2001 to 2011, then the CEO of SVB's joint venture with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (SPDB-SVB) in Shanghai until 2015, followed by four years as its Vice Chairman. He currently serves on the boards of the Asia

Society of Northern California, the Asian Art Museum, and UC San Diego's 21st Century China Center, as well as Columbia Lake Partners, a European venture-debt fund. He is on the Board of Advisors of the Fudan University School of Management in Shanghai and an Adjunct Professor at U.C. Berkeley.

Ken holds a PhD in German from Ohio State University and an MBA from Harvard Business School. He has given numerous speeches in both English and Chinese, published a variety of articles in the banking press, and recently wrote the management book Leading Through Culture: How Real Leaders Create Cultures That Motivate People to Achieve Great Things (Waterside Productions, 2020) and its accompanying workbook, How About You? (Waterside Productions, 2023). His account of establishing an innovation bank in China, The China Business Conundrum: Ensure that Win-Win Doesn’t Mean Western Companies Lose Twice, is forthcoming from Wiley.

To connect with Ken, please visit: www.linkedin.com/in/kenwilcoxsvb/

Timestamps for EP259

• Introduction and Overview of the Podcast (0:00)
• Ken Wilcox's Journey into China (4:40)
• Challenges and Strategic Invitations in China (8:10)
• Guanxi and Corruption in Business Relationships (14:13)
• State Control and Joint Venture Challenges (20:42)
• Impact of SVB's Collapse and Final Reflections (40:02)

Takeaways

1. Joint ventures in China often suffer from differing goals between Western companies and their Chinese partners, a phenomenon Ken Wilcox refers to as "One Bed, Two Dreams."
2. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) holds significant control over both private and state-owned companies, making it difficult for foreign businesses to operate independently.
3. Guanxi, a system of mutual obligation and trust, plays a critical role in business relationships in China, but it often involves navigating corruption and complex social expectations.
4. Foreign companies entering China are often targeted for their intellectual property, and the CCP uses strategic partnerships to gain technological insights.
5. Ken Wilcox’s experience with Silicon Valley Bank in China illustrates the frustrations foreign firms face due to slow regulatory processes and overwhelming state control.

Links relevant to the conversation

Ken’s book “The China Business Conundrum”:

https://www.amazon.com.au/China-Business-Conundrum-Win-Win-Companies/dp/1394294166

Previous Economics Explored episodes on China:

China’s Economic Future Under Xi & the Australia-China Relationship w/ Emmanuel Daniel – EP253 

https://economicsexplored.com/2024/09/17/chinas-economic-future-under-xi-the-australia-china-relationship-w-emmanuel-daniel-ep253/

Enterprise China: what western businesses need to know w/ Prof. Allen Morrison  – EP171

https://economicsexplored.com/2022/12/26/enterprise-china-what-western-businesses-need-to-know-w-prof-allen-morrison-ep171/

Why we’re in the Decisive Decade with China & what the West should do w/ Dr Jonathan D. T. Ward – EP182

https://economicsexplored.com/2023/04/09/why-were-in-the-decisive-decade-with-china-what-the-west-should-do-w-dr-jonathan-d-t-ward-ep182/

China, Taiwan & the Indo-Pacific w/ Dr Greta Nabbs-Keller – EP146

https://economicsexplored.com/2022/07/04/china-taiwan-the-indo-pacific-w-dr-greta-nabbs-keller-ep146/

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Marian Tupy, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, discusses his book "Super Abundance" with Gene Tunny. Tupy argues that resources are becoming more abundant relative to global population, a concept he calls "super abundance." He explains that human ingenuity has led to cheaper commodities over time. Tupy refutes Malthusian predictions of resource scarcity, citing examples like the Haber-Bosch process for synthetic fertilizer. He also addresses environmental concerns, emphasizing that economic growth and technological advancements can mitigate issues like ocean and air pollution and resource depletion.

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at [email protected]  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. 

About this episode’s guest: Marian Tupy, Cato Institute

Marian L. Tupy is the founder and editor of Human​Progress​.org, and a senior fellow at the Cato Institute’s Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity.

He is the co-author of the Simon Abundance Index, Superabundance: The Story of Population Growth, Innovation, and Human Flourishing on an Infinitely Bountiful Planet (2022) and Ten Global Trends Every Smart Person Should Know: And Many Others You Will Find Interesting (2020).

His articles have been published in the Financial Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, the Wall Street Journal, The Atlantic, Newsweek, the U.K. Spectator, Foreign Policy, and various other outlets both in the United States and overseas. He has appeared on BBC, CNN, CNBC, MSNBC, Fox News, Fox Business, and other channels.

Tupy received his BA in international relations and classics from the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, South Africa, and his PhD in international relations from the University of St. Andrews in the United Kingdom.

Source: https://www.cato.org/people/marian-l-tupy

Timestamps for EP258

• Introduction and Overview of the Podcast (0:00)
• Explaining the Concept of Super Abundance (2:30)
• Methodology and Stylized Facts (6:48)
• Julian Simon and the Bet with Paul Ehrlich (9:46)
• Future Prospects and Human Ingenuity (12:45)
• Environmental Concerns and Degrowth (22:59)
• Population Growth and Resource Use (33:11)
• Final Thoughts and Future Prospects (34:08)

Takeaways

1. Tupy argues that human ingenuity continuously expands the resource base, making resources more abundant even as populations grow.
2. The concept of "time prices" shows that resources are becoming cheaper relative to wages, supporting the thesis of super abundance.
3. The famous Simon-Ehrlich bet demonstrates that commodities became cheaper over time, disproving doomsday predictions about resource depletion.
4. Technological advancements, such as desalination and agricultural productivity, are key to sustaining resource abundance.
5. Economic prosperity and technological innovation are essential for environmental protection.

Links relevant to the conversation

Marian’s book Superabundance:

https://www.amazon.com.au/Superabundance-Population-Growth-Innovation-Flourishing/dp/1952223393

Simon–Ehrlich wager Wikipedia entry:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager

Regarding the question, “Is it true that the majority of plastic in the oceans comes from Asia and Africa?” see:

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/is-it-true-that-the-majority-o-3aYOSMTyT6m9CcULDm7Iug

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In this episode, Gene Tunny dives into a recent Universal Basic Income (UBI) experiment funded by Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI. Gene explores the key findings of the randomised controlled trial and discusses whether the positive outcomes are enough to convince sceptics. Are UBI recipients more financially secure, or are there deeper concerns about its impact on labour force participation and long-term wealth? Get Gene’s balanced analysis of this major UBI trial and its broader implications.

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at [email protected]  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. 

Timestamps for EP257

• Introduction (0:00)
• Defining Universal Basic Income (UBI) (4:21)
• Overview of the OpenAI UBI Experiment (8:09)
• Positive Findings from the OpenAI UBI Experiment (13:54)
• Concerns and Criticisms of the OpenAI UBI Experiment (21:55)
• Financial Impact of UBI on Household Net Worth (22:50)
• Gene Tunny's Skepticism About UBI (34:17)
• Closing Remarks and Previous Episode Clips (37:57)

Takeaways

1. Mixed Outcomes of UBI: The experiment showed some positive effects, such as increased financial flexibility and well-being, but also concerning results, such as a slight decrease in labour market participation.
2. Spending Behavior: UBI recipients spent more on necessities like food and rent; interestingly, they were more likely to help others financially.
3. Limited Educational and Employment Impact: Younger participants showed interest in further education, but there was no significant boost in human capital or labour productivity.
4. Debate Over Financial Impact: UBI did not lead to clear improvements in recipients' financial health. The study found increased debt in some cases, raising questions about UBI's long-term benefits.
5. AI and UBI: As technological advancements continue, UBI is seen by some as a solution to technological unemployment, though Gene and some experts remain sceptical about the scale of potential job loss.

Links relevant to the conversation

Bloomberg article “Sam Altman-Backed Group Completes Largest US Study on Basic Income”:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-22/ubi-study-backed-by-openai-s-sam-altman-bolsters-support-for-basic-income

OpenResearch’s website:

https://www.openresearchlab.org/

Pete Judo’s video on UBI experiment failing:

https://youtu.be/oyoMgGiWgJQ?si=j3T-3yaEL5Rajcpw

NBER working papers on the study

The Employment Effects of a Guaranteed Income: Experimental Evidence from Two U.S. States:

https://www.nber.org/papers/w32719

The Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers on Consumption and Household Balance Sheets: Experimental Evidence from Two US States:

https://www.nber.org/papers/w32784

Two Computer Scientists Debunk A.I. Hype with Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor:

https://youtu.be/M3U5UVyGTuQ?si=qcqSflHCf837GisA

AI can do only 5pc of jobs, says MIT economist who fears crash:

https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/ai-can-do-only-5pc-of-jobs-says-mit-economist-who-fears-crash-20241003-p5kfil

Previous episodes:

https://economicsexplored.com/2022/05/03/a-ubi-advocate-on-its-benefits-and-costs-ep137-show-notes-transcript/

https://economicsexplored.com/2022/02/13/ubi-universal-basic-income-w-ben-phillips-anu-ep126/

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Qin En Looi, a partner at Saison Capital, discusses the venture capital landscape, particularly in emerging markets like Southeast Asia, India, and Latin America. Saison Capital, backed by Credit Saison, focuses on early-stage investments and has $150 million in assets under management. The firm has seen three exits and emphasizes the potential of Web3 and decentralized finance (DeFi). Looi highlights the efficiency and cost advantages of DeFi, citing examples like Thala, a decentralized currency exchange, and Helix, which tokenizes private credit. He also notes the geopolitical implications, such as near-shoring to Mexico, and the positive impact of the recent Fed rate cut on private investments. NB This episode contains general information and should not be considered financial or investment advice. 

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at [email protected]  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. 

About Qin En Looi, Partner at Saison Capital

Qin En Looi is a seasoned venture capitalist with a wealth of experience in fintech, B2B commerce, and web3 startups. At Saison Capital, he leads pre-seed and seed investments and advises multiple Southeast Asia-based web3 startups. His previous roles include co-founding Glints, the leading talent ecosystem in Southeast Asia, and earning recognition from Forbes 30 Under 30. Qin En is also the creator and host of the successful podcast “Parents in Tech.”

Timestamps for EP256

• Introduction (0:00)
• Venture Capital Terminology and Investment Strategy (3:19)
• Evolution of Venture Capital and Web3 (5:49)
• Qin En Looi's Journey into Venture Capital (9:56)
• Investment Focus on Web3 and Decentralized Finance (12:29)
• Helix and the Future of Private Credit (20:02)
• Geographic Expansion and Global Opportunities (26:34)
• Concerns About Geopolitical and Economic Tensions (33:59)
• Impact of Fed Rate Cuts on Private Investments (36:40)
• Final Thoughts and Future Outlook (39:27)

Takeaways

1. Web3 Opportunities in Emerging Markets: Southeast Asia and Latin America are ripe for blockchain and decentralized finance innovations, with venture capitalists looking to capitalize on these growing markets.
2. Blockchain and Financial Inclusion: Qin En argues Blockchain technology offers faster and more efficient financial services, helping to increase financial inclusion in underserved regions.
3. Decentralized Finance (DeFi) as a Game Changer: Qin En argues DeFi platforms such as decentralized exchanges are transforming traditional financial models by enabling permissionless, trustless transactions.
4. Private Credit on Blockchain: According to Qin En, tokenizing real-world assets like private credit offers new ways to reduce costs and increase liquidity, opening up more investment opportunities.
5. Geopolitical Risks and Global Expansion: VC firms like Saison Capital are navigating geopolitical tensions by expanding into new markets such as Mexico, taking advantage of nearshoring trends.

Links relevant to the conversation

Saison Capital: https://www.saisoncapital.com/

Information on United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) which replaced NAFTA:

https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement

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Chris Ball, CEO of Hoxton Wealth, discusses the company's focus on wealth management for internationally mobile individuals, particularly in Dubai. Hoxton Wealth, with offices globally, offers fee-based services to high net worth and mass affluent clients, emphasizing comprehensive financial planning. Ball highlights the use of AI for administrative tasks and the challenges of property investing in the current political climate. He also addresses the debate on retirement income withdrawal rates, advocating for a balanced approach between needs and wants. Ball mentions the impact of geopolitical risks and economic trends on their business and the importance of risk-tailored investment strategies. NB This episode contains general information and should not be considered financial or investment advice. 

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at [email protected]  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. 

Timestamps for EP255

• Introduction (0:00)
• Hoxton Wealth's Services and Client Base (4:59)
• Challenges in Property Investing and Political Climate (5:14)
• Client Profiles and Financial Planning (5:28)
• Investment Strategies and Risk Management (14:43)
• Cryptocurrency and Geopolitical Risks (20:35)
• Economic and Demographic Trends (23:59)
• AI in Wealth Management (31:58)
• Technology and Client Communication (34:37)
• Final Thoughts and Contact Information (35:44)

Takeaways

1. The complexity of Global Wealth Management: Managing assets across multiple jurisdictions requires expertise in different tax regimes and regulatory environments, especially for high-net-worth individuals and ex-pats.
2. AI’s Role in Financial Planning: While AI may not replace human financial advisors, it helps streamline administrative tasks, reduce costs, improve efficiency, and allow advisors to serve more clients.
3. Property Investment Challenges: Rising interest rates and increasing regulation make property investments less attractive, especially for those looking for passive income in retirement.
4. Retirement Strategies Vary: Wealth management clients need personalized plans that balance their wants and needs for a comfortable retirement.
5. Crypto’s Place in Wealth Management: Chris Ball believes cryptocurrencies are here to stay. However, investors need to be prepared for volatility and risk with crypto, making it unsuitable for many traditional clients.

Links relevant to the conversation

Chris’s business, Hoxton Wealth: https://hoxtonwealth.com/

Chris’s bio: https://hoxtoncapital.com/staff/chris-ball/

Chris Ball’s LinkedIn page: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrisballhx/

Fundsmith Equity Fund, mentioned by Chris in the episode: https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/

Controversy over Dave Ramsey’s retirement withdrawal rate recommendation:

https://youtu.be/Rc1nJj4vE_w?si=_7fVgjShgFKg6VX-

https://youtu.be/kghKiz1Mi_8?si=2jAP9DtWKN-LoR50

https://youtu.be/dM6Jqm7PPpg?si=pPvYh08bieusPBzO

Info on tax in UAE:

https://taxsummaries.pwc.com/united-arab-emirates/individual/taxes-on-personal-income  

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Show host Gene Tunny responds to listener feedback about the private versus public sector's role in wealth creation, particularly addressing externalities like environmental harm and whether governments should fund facilities like Men’s Sheds. He also explores the efficiency of the private sector compared to government spending.

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at [email protected]  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. 

Timestamps for EP254

• Introduction (0:00)
• Externalities and Market Efficiency (4:47)
• Government's Role in Addressing Externalities (11:30)
• Coase Theorem and Market Failures (19:43)
• Government Spending and Efficiency (26:31)
• Men's Sheds and Government Support (32:51)
• Scott Prasser's Critique of Government Spending (39:43)
• Balancing Government and Private Sector Roles (45:49)

Takeaways

1. Externalities in Wealth Creation: Private markets can overlook externalities such as pollution or public health impacts, justifying government intervention in some cases.
2. Incentives for Efficiency: Due to market competition, the private sector generally has stronger incentives for efficiency, while government projects typically lack the same discipline.
3. Government Spending Criticism: Many government projects, particularly those done for political reasons, are inefficient and do not consistently deliver expected benefits.
4. Cost-Benefit Analysis is Crucial: Government spending should be evaluated through cost-benefit analysis to avoid wasting public funds.
5. Coase Theorem and Market Solutions: While private negotiation can theoretically resolve externalities (as per the Coase Theorem), it typically does not work in practice due to high transaction costs and imperfect information.

Links relevant to the conversation

Relevant previous episodes:

Government vs Private Sector in Wealth Creation:

https://economicsexplored.com/2024/07/05/government-vs-private-sector-who-generates-wealth-ep247/

White Elephant Stampede:

https://economicsexplored.com/2022/10/17/white-elephant-stampede-w-scott-prasser-ep161/

Coase theorem paper - “Does the Coase theorem hold in real markets? An application to the negotiations between waterworks and farmers in Denmark”

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479711003331

Urbis review of Men’s Sheds:

https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2022/01/review-of-support-for-the-men-s-shed-movement-current-state-report_0.pdf

Beyond Blue Report on Men’s Sheds:

https://mensshed.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Ultrafeed-beyondblue-Mens-Shed-in-Australia-Final-Executive-Report-2013.pdf

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Show host Gene Tunny talks with Emmanuel Daniel, founder of The Asian Banker, about China's evolving economic policies under Xi Jinping. They explore China’s state intervention, the country's property sector, and the global implications of Xi's economic vision. Emmanuel also shares insights into Southeast Asia's rise, focusing on Indonesia's growth prospects. The conversation concludes with a discussion of Australia’s role in the region, its economic ties with China, and its alliance with the US and UK.

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at [email protected]  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. 

What’s covered in EP253

• Introduction (0:00)
• China's Property Sector and Economic Challenges (6:32)
• State's Role in Economic Development and Social Infrastructure (15:20)
• China's Economic Growth and Productivity (29:15)
• China's Geopolitical Challenges and US Relations (35:58)
• Southeast Asia and the Rise of the Rest (44:50)
• Australia's Role in the Region and Economic Ties with China (53:38)
• Final Thoughts and Future Directions (56:07)

Takeaways

1. China’s State Activism: The Chinese state has reasserted itself in the economy, implementing policies restricting private sector growth with the objective of promoting long-term social stability.
2. Challenges of State-Led Development: There are limitations to what the state can achieve compared to the dynamism of private markets, especially in frontier technologies.
3. The Socialist-Capitalist Tension: China’s current policies reflect a unique blend of socialism and capitalism (aka socialism with Chinese characteristics), with the state playing a more prominent role than in Western economies.
4. Global Implications: China's economic trajectory under Xi Jinping will profoundly affect global markets, particularly as the state asserts more control over private companies.
5. Rise of Southeast Asia: Countries like Indonesia are emerging as economic powerhouses, with domestic consumption and political stability driving their growth.

Links relevant to the conversation

About this episode’s guest Emmanuel Daniel:

https://www.emmanueldaniel.com/biography-and-contact/

Economics Explored ep171 on the Enterprise China model:

https://economicsexplored.com/2022/12/26/enterprise-china-what-western-businesses-need-to-know-w-prof-allen-morrison-ep171/

Reuters report “Indonesia minister says Musk to consider offer to build EV battery plant in country”:

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/indonesia-minister-says-musk-consider-building-ev-battery-plant-country-2024-05-20/

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Show host Gene Tunny interviews Russell Harrison, CEO of Spartans Boxing Club. They discuss the rise of boutique boxing gyms, the benefits of boxing for fitness and mental health, and the challenges of expanding a fitness franchise globally. Russell describes how Spartans uses technology to enhance the member experience and how boxing training can benefit corporate executives and employees. Hear from Russell about Spartans’ "White Collar Boxing" events, where high-performing corporate executives and professionals undergo 12 weeks of boxing training, culminating in a black-tie gala event. 

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, please email us at [email protected]  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. 

What’s covered in EP252

• Introduction (0:00)
• Ensuring Safety in Boxing (3:13)
• Fitness Benefits of Boxing (6:01)
• Training and Techniques at Spartans Boxing Clubs (8:32)
• Expansion into the Australian Market (10:20)
• Boutique Fitness Market and Franchise Model (13:43)
• Gender Balance and Market Demographics (35:03)
• Corporate Wellness and Holistic Health (35:20)
• White Collar Boxing (43:10)
• Final Thoughts and Future Plans (45:16)

Takeaways

1. Community-Driven Gyms: Spartans Boxing Club focuses on creating accessible, community-oriented gyms that cater to a wide demographic, including families and professionals.
2. Franchise Success: Spartans Boxing's franchise model is designed to be mutually beneficial, with a focus on providing value and support to franchisees.
3. Holistic Wellness: Beyond physical fitness, Spartans Boxing integrates mental health programs, showing the importance of a holistic approach to well-being.
4. Global Expansion: Spartans Boxing has successfully expanded into multiple countries by adapting its business model to local markets and regulations.
5. Boutique Fitness Trends: The rise of boutique gyms like Spartans Boxing reflects a shift towards more personalised, community-focused fitness experiences.

Links relevant to the conversation

Spartans Boxing Club:

https://spartansboxing.com/

A study reporting “Boxing appears to be an effective treatment for persons with Parkinson’s disease”:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9837687/

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This episode delves into the work of Good Business Lab (GBL), co-founded by Professor Achyuta Adhvaryu. GBL focuses on innovative workplace interventions to improve worker well-being and firm productivity, and it typically evaluates these interventions using Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs). Show host Gene Tunny and Ach discuss the effectiveness of soft skills training programs and the importance of worker voice in creating a more engaged and productive workforce. They discuss methodological issues regarding RCTs and whether the Hawthorne effect is a concern. Ach is Tata Chancellor’s Professor of Economics and Director of the 21st Century India Center at UC San Diego.

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, please email us at [email protected]  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. 

About this episode’s guest: Professor Achyuta Adhvaryu

Achyuta Adhvaryu is the Tata Chancellor’s Professor of Economics at the School of Global Policy and Strategy and is the inaugural director of the 21st Century India Center at UC San Diego. Adhvaryu’s research interests are in development economics, organizational economics and health economics, and his experience in organizational development make him well-suited to lead our new center. Prior to this role, Adhvaryu was a professor at the University of Michigan and an assistant professor at the Yale School of Public Health.

https://gps.ucsd.edu/faculty-directory/achyuta-adhvaryu.html

What’s covered in EP251

• Introduction. (0:00)
• Achyuta's Early Career and Research in East Africa (1:53)
• Historical Examples of Private Sector Impact (17:03)
• Good Business Lab's Approach and Findings (21:45)
• Methodology and Measurement of Impact (37:56)
• Hawthorne Effect and Replication of Findings (43:33)
• Economic Development and Convergence (49:44)

Takeaways

1. Soft skills training can significantly improve productivity, even in blue-collar settings.
2. Worker voice, when effectively harnessed, can reduce turnover and absenteeism while boosting productivity.
3. Good Business Lab demonstrates the practical value of academic research when applied to real-world business challenges.
4. A growing body of evidence supports the integration of worker wellbeing initiatives into business strategies globally.

Links relevant to the conversation

Good Business Lab:

https://goodbusinesslab.org/

UC San Diego 21st Century India Center that Ach directs:

https://india.ucsd.edu/

Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

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Show host Gene Tunny and Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox explore the recent insights Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser shared on monetary policy at the 2024 Economic Society of Australia (QLD) business lunch. They examine the RBA's data-driven approach to interest rates,  the equilibrium real interest rate concept, and the impacts of Quantitative Tightening (QT). Michael is one of Australia’s leading market economists and RBA watchers, and he led the Q&A session with the Deputy Governor at the lunch. 

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, please email us at [email protected]  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. 

What’s covered in EP250

• Introduction. (0:00)
• RBA's monetary policy decisions and the influence of high US debt on interest rates. (4:13)
• The equilibrium real interest rate. (10:29)
• Monetary policy, inflation, and interest rates. (14:16)
• Central bank balance sheet unwind and its potential impact on interest rates. (21:42)
• US budget deficits, bond yields, and quantitative tightening. (27:09)
• Chinese RMB's decline in international reserve currency status. (34:18)

Takeaways

1. RBA's Data-Driven Approach: The Reserve Bank of Australia relies on actual data more than forecasts when making interest rate decisions.
2. Criticism of Overconfidence: RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser criticised the unwarranted confidence with which some commentators argue for monetary policy moves.
3. Implications of Quantitative Tightening (QT): The recent period of quantitative easing has complicated the relationship between government budget deficits and bond yields. However, there are concerns that as QT continues and deficits remain high, this relationship could reassert itself and lead to higher long-term interest rates than otherwise.

Links relevant to the conversation

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s Beware False Prophets speech:

https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2024/sp-dg-2024-08-12.html

Chris Joye’s article ‘Arrogant RBA boss should stop trying to muffle opponents’:

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/arrogant-rba-boss-should-stop-trying-to-muffle-opponents-20240813-p5k25p

Kevin M Warsh: Financial market turmoil and the Federal Reserve – the plot thickens 

https://www.bis.org/review/r080415e.pdf

Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.