Election 2026

How do you feel about a million people not voting in this year’s election?

I’m not talking here about people not getting themselves sorted and registering early because of the changes brought in by the Government.

The early cut-off. No more registering on the day.

These a million people with every right to vote, who didn’t. Couldn’t be bothered.

I think it’s a shocker and something needs to be done about it.

Because, if you look at the records over the years, there’s a very clear pattern of more and more people not bothering to vote.

So what do we do about it? I’ve got a solution.

But first, here are the numbers. The Electoral Commission is telling us that, in the election we’ve just had, 74.6 percent of eligible voters took part.

And it’s looking like being the second-lowest turnout ever in New Zealand.

There are about 3.8 million people eligible to vote. About 2.8 million of them voted. Leaving 1 million who didn’t.

Not that this is totally new. A similar amount of people couldn’t be bothered last election, either.

Some people might say, oh so what?

They might think that it just means we have a million people who don’t have the right to complain about the way the country’s being run over the next three years. Because they didn’t vote.

But it’s more than that. Because the more people voting, the more representative our Parliament is.

The more of a mandate the Government of the day has.

So we need to take it seriously. And I think we need to do what they do in Australia and make voting compulsory.

It works and here’s the proof. Since making voting in federal elections compulsory in 1924, voter turnout has never fallen below 90 percent.

Two years before making it compulsory, just 60 percent of people voted in the 1922 election.

In 1924, voting was made compulsory and straight away there was an increase in voter turnout, with 91 percent voting a year later in the 1925 election.

And, as I say, it hasn‘t been any lower than 90 percent since.

Fun fact: The fine for not voting is $20 Australian. Which you would think wouldn't be enough of a stick to get people voting. But it is.

Although, voting is probably so ingrained - or the obligation to vote is probably so ingrained in Australia - the threat of a fine doesn’t really come into it.

Not that everyone in Australia likes being told they're breaking the law if they don’t vote. There have been campaigns over the years to change the rules. But most people are fine with it.

I’d be more than fine with compulsory voting here in New Zealand. It very clearly works in Australia. So why not do the same thing here?

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Don Brash, the former leader of the ACT and National parties, has admitted he wouldn’t give the Finance Minister role to another party if he were in Christopher Luxon’s position. 

But with ACT’s David Seymour gunning for the role, Brash told Ryan Bridge that Seymour was the only person who seemed to care that government debt was “going up like mad”. 

It was unclear who in National could do the job with Nicola Willis leaving Parliament, but Simeon Brown, Erica Stanford, or Todd McClay were possibilities, he said. 

NZ First leader Winston Peters would “obviously” oppose Seymour becoming Finance Minister, but the role couldn’t go to his party as its policies —including keeping NZ Super at 65 and buying BNZ— would mean big increases in public debt. 

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I risk getting slightly ahead of myself, but my anticipation of the Government being returned means some very interesting times for the Labour Party. 

Obviously Hipkins would go and in that is the exposure of one of those things we see increasingly often in the workplace – a lack of talent. 

It still amazes me we can have an unemployment rate of 5.7% with allegedly this massive queue of people desperate for work, and yet gainfully employed are any number of dumpty dos who anyone with any sense of anticipation around quality would quite rightly ask "how is it they're in work?" 

I've seen it in the media over the past decade. The depth of genuine talent these days is puddle shallow and so it is with the Labour Party. 

What Labour, or any party really, needs is an obvious successor, if not two. People who are quite clearly set to go should the circumstances arise 

You see it all the time in sport. But with Labour a schism is building. 

They talk of Michael Wood, and they talk, remarkably, of Craig Renney. 

Both are hardcore unionists. Renney is an overt Pom, not that I have anything against Poms, even if they have been here a while. But if that’s their path they are in for a very long period in the wilderness. 

When Labour have done well, they're a broader church. Think Clark and Lange, think Hawke and Keating, think Blair and Brown. 

The answer is there. Sadly though, often the talent isn't, and so you end up with Gillards and Starmers and, maybe, Woods and Renneys. 

The same way Luxon gets whacked for being out of touch, Wood and Renney don’t stand a chance with working New Zealand. 

They keep saying Barbara Edmonds, but I'm sure that’s only because she is the last one standing, not because she is an obvious leader. 

The same way great players aren't always captains, this applies to the next leader of the Opposition. 

The next leader is a path to competitiveness in 2029, or a gap filler while they tear themselves apart for multiple terms.   

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A man familiar with the role believes the finance portfolio doesn't just come down to who's best for the job. 

ACT's leader David Seymour believes it's no longer tenable for National to demand the portfolio after his party received its highest share of the votes in Saturday's election. 

He's making the case for himself to become Finance Minister. 

Former National Finance Minister Steven Joyce told Mike Hosking parties in whatever coalition eventuates aren't going to have the same preferences or requirements. 

He says there are bigger things to think about, and Seymour will likely trade off this role for something else. 

Joyce is also warning Seymour to be careful what he wishes for, as in holding the portfolio, he would have to be a lot closer to National than he might like to be. 

“The three parties together aren’t going to sign up to ACT’s preferences in terms of fiscal policy ... so he would have to be the Finance Minister presiding over what he would see as a highly watered-down version of what he would like to do.” 

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FIRST WITH YESTERDAY'S NEWS (highlights from Monday on Newstalk ZB) Everyone Has Their Reckon/Podcast Roulette

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In a surprise to no one tonight's topic of choice upon Marcus' return was a debrief of Saturday's election.

Listerners called in to chat the grand coalition, the MPs who missed out, compulsary voting, and who will be the next speaker? 

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ACT's leader says everything is negotiable - as speculation about him becoming the next Finance Minister, if the coalition return to power continues to swirl.

National leader Chris Luxon says his party keeping that portfolio is non-negotiable.

David Seymour says the coalition need to ask themselves what the best configuration is to make sure they have a fighting chance of a third term in three years time.

"Now, I'm not particularly wedded to myself being in any particular position, but what I do take exception to is this tone that only National ministers can do things competently." 

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Chris Bishop says he's had a rough couple of days, after finding himself out of Parliament after 12 years. 

The National front-bencher phoned his Hutt South opponent, Labour's Ginny Andersen, to concede - saying special votes are unlikely to overturn her provisional 889 vote lead.

The electorate's gone back and forward between the two since 2017. 

Bishop says he's still processing what's happened, but this might not be the last we see of him. 

"I still think I've got something further to give in terms of public life - and what that looks like, I don't know. So I'm not ruling it out, but it's two days after the election, it's a pretty bruising loss." 

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So the talk has already turned, not surprisingly, to whether either of the Chrises will keep their jobs after the election.

Let's deal with Chris Hipkins first.

Chippy's gone, right?

The only thing that's going to save him is if he somehow defies  the odds and, against all expectations, wins enough seats through the recount and special votes in the next three weeks to form a majority with Opportunity. If, and only if, he becomes Prime Minister is his job safe.

If he doesn't, he's gone.

I mean, there is no way Labour can want to get spanked that badly in 2029. There's no way Labour can go into the 2029 election with Chris Hipkins. By then, he'd have already lost two elections for the party, especially not when his main contender, Michael Wood, has just been re-elected to Parliament.

And don't kid yourself that Michael Wood doesn't want the job. I asked him on air about taking it and he only told me to "calm the farm". He didn't say no.

Now let's deal with Chris Luxon.

I think he's safe, at least for now.

Even though the National Party only came in at 29 percent, which is nothing to be proud of, it's better than the 25 percent to 26 percent that a couple of the polls were predicting. Plus, that result is somewhat masked by the overhang, which supersizes National's numbers again.

Sure, he's lost a huge amount of authority through that low result, and he's lost a huge amount of authority by making himself look silly over Opportunity. And sure, he might yet have to make himself look even sillier by giving up some very juicy portfolios to his partners.

But National is probably, odds are, back in Government, which is the thing that matters most to them.

Plus, if you're going to roll a leader, there has to be an event that triggers it. A coup needs a catalyst. You need something that MPs are afraid of losing. That thing has just happened. It was the election.

There isn't another trigger on the horizon, at least in the short term.

I think Luxon is safe for at least a couple of years, which should give him enough time to bow out on his own terms and find himself a flash job if he wants one.

The rule is basically this: both Chrises will probably be gone by 2029, one much sooner than the other.

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Greens co-leader Marama Davidson agrees the left has longer odds of forming Government, but it's still possible.

The party has had its highest vote ever on provisional results - scoring 13.3 percent. 

But it could only form a Government with Labour, Te Pati Māori and Opportunity if special votes switch Saturday night's figures. 

Davidson says hope isn't lost. 

"It does also depend on the electorate results being fit for some of the seats that are out there, and that means that it could even end up being one seat - for a left Government majority." 

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