In the first Emmy prediction podcast of the 2014/2015 season (I know, I know...), Awardswatch Emmy Experts Chris Pepper and Jonathan Boehle and myself, Erik Anderson, are honored to have AW alum and Vox.com Culture Editor Todd VanDerWerff join us as we deconstruct the Emmy submission ballots released last week and figure out if Orange is the New Black will suffer or benefit from its category switch from Comedy to Drama. We also take a look at the Guest categories in both Drama and Comedy and see how the 50% rule will affect those categories.

Later on we talk about the rise and fall of Netflix from last year to this year and how its Emmy season could end up and discuss the campaign games of HBO, Showtime and FX as well as if Mad Men will go out with a bang or a whimper. Todd makes his case for FX's The Americans to have a breakthrough year and I commit that Amazon's Transparent will be an Emmy nomination juggernaut. 

Don't forget to follow us on Twitter at @awards_watch and head over to our Emmy Predictions pages for full predictions on everything from Variety Series, Reality Host and TV Movie/Limited Series acting categories.