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Biden gives Chevron permit to restart Venezuelan oil saleshttps://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/26/biden-chevron-permit-venezuelan-oil-sales-00070836
Chevron can resume key role in Venezuela's oil output, exportshttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-issues-expanded-license-allow-chevron-import-venezuelan-petroleum-2022-11-26/- this might add barrels to the market, but if might not because it might just shift oil from the black market to the legal market and not actually add barrels- Chevron isn't likely to restart production in a significant way because the license only goes for 6 months and significant investment and infrastructure repair is needed.- Might help Chevron recoup some lossesRussian Oil Is Already Trading Far Below Europe’s Proposed Cap https://finance.yahoo.com/news/price-russian-oil-now-try-113456772.html- Urals trading at $51.76/barrel on Monday Mov 28
- Is there any way to do a price cap and keep Russian oil on the market?
- Poland wants $30/barrel but Greece, Malta, Cypress want a higher cap because they make a lot of money shipping Russian oil or want compensation
- What's more important to Europeans - shipping jobs or hurting Putin?
Oil prices erase 2022 gains as China's protests spark demand worries https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-drops-more-than-1-chinas-covid-protests-fuel-demand-worries-2022-11-28/
- Protests in China: unlike Tiananmen Sq, where Chinese people don't know what happened, now there is WeChat and people can see before the gov quashes it.
- Technology does change things but is it enough to get ahead of the government? The government can just cut the internet.
- Will the protests mean more oil demand or less oil demand? China could come out with a jobs program which would be good for demand. Could also beat the war drums about Taiwan to crush dissent.
Column: U.S. diesel shortage starts to ease
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-diesel-shortage-starts-ease-kemp-2022-11-24/
- "The increase was small but runs against the normal trend for a drawdown at this time of year and indicates high prices and a slowing economy are starting to rebuild inventories"
- Runs against what Dr. Foreman said last week about the US economy and that distillate indicators show the economy is strong
- If oil prices keep going down, will distillate follow?
Energy Companies Expect More Friends in Washington as Republicans Take Over Househttps://www.wsj.com/articles/energy-companies-expect-more-friends-in-washington-as-republicans-take-over-house-11669517278- is there anything they can do for oil? ensure no windfall tax- the issue is the regulatory state not legal issues
Frackers Say Oil Production Slowing in the Shale Patch
https://www.wsj.com/articles/frackers-say-oil-production-slowing-in-the-shale-patch-11667743226
- problem is that frackers are drilling in gassier areas
- will likely get more production in 2023 because of rejiggering where they drill, etc.
- WSJ very different interpretation of info from what Ryan sees in Permian based on research - article will be out from Hart Energy soon
- Lots of evidence that there's plenty of profitable drilling - lots of wells break even at $40/barrel.
Beijing's biggest district urges residents to stay home as COVID cases rise
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-covid-cases-steady-many-beijing-businesses-schools-shut-2022-11-20/
- Is China moving away from zero-Covid or not?
- Why is Xi pushing forward? Likelihood of mass death is low, so what's going on?
- Is zero-Covid an employment scam? How do you transition people who work these jobs to elsewhere?
- Impact on the oil market about news about Covid from China. Could have moved the market.
- China has probably signaled to Aramco what it’s going to do, so they already know and aren't trading on headlines. Aramco probably knows about China's zero-covid policy more than others.
Saudi Arabia Eyes OPEC+ Output Increase Ahead of Restrictions on Russian Oil
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-eyes-opec-production-increase-ahead-of-embargo-price-cap-on-russian-oil-11669040336
- WSJ reported that Saudi wants an increase of 500,000 bpd at Dec 4 meeting
- Saudi denies this
- Best indication of China's zero covid policy is what OPEC is doing
Monthly Statistical Review - Interview with chief economist from API, Dr. Dean Foreman
API | MSR: U.S. Petroleum Markets Buoyant in October, But Have Entered a Winter of Uncertainties
- stories of different parts of the economy and uneven recovery. Interest rates hurt some businesses but not others.
- U.S. is plowing itself towards recession with rate increases.
- Consumer economy is hurting with rate increases
- Projections from EIA, fuel switching, and other data shows no recession because close to record oil demand.
- Employment picture has been strong in nation. Despite stress points and unevenness, its not a bad picture.
- Growth in industrial side of the economy.
- Is the Permian in trouble?
- G7 price cap could be a disruption in the making. Could take 1 million bpd of crude off the market and 500,000 bpd of products off market.
- East coast is more exposed and dependent on trade with Europe because of lack of refining capacity and depends on trade with other regions and the transportation of it.
- Market logistics are more of the same of what we saw in March and April as things get rerouted. Russian crude has to go by water because it's not going to Europe. Additional market penetration to India, China, etc. Is there any market left there? With refined products - also logistical. Typically products are shipped out of refineries in Baltic and spend 3 days going to Rotterdam. But now they have to spend more time going to Asia. Shipping and insurance issues are also a logistical issue. Short term disruption during change without any political hardball being played by Putin.
- "Total U.S. exports of crude oil and refined products eclipsed a record 10.0 mb/d for a second straight month, and U.S. petroleum net exports rose to 2.1 mb/d, which was the highest for any month on record since 1947." Do you foresee this changing when the SPR releases stop? --> some of the SPR has been exported but not a lot of it. A lot of it is still getting placed domestically through pipelines and barges.
- Two months ago 10.4 million bpd of total gross exports was a record. Double digit million bpd export numbers are stunning.
- As imports have gone down, we have net exports going up.
- Hunkering down and building business to continue to supply oil domestically.
- EIA projects a backslide in exports but by year end next year it comes back.
- The US has become a stronger domestic provider of its own oil within our own value chain.
- But need more infrastructure in oil in order to have low prices at home and lots of exports
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Fossil fuel producers flex their muscle at UN climate summit
https://www.ft.com/content/a29c1204-70cf-46c1-b266-780788bfa048
- Fossil fuel companies invited to COP27 for the first time
- Are they hijacking the conference with their money?
- Definitely seem to be hijacking the headlines
- Does it mean that the climate camp is admitting that fossil fuels are still necessary and they are just trying to get them to pollute less?
EPA to strengthen proposed rule on methane emissions from oil, gashttps://www.ogj.com/general-interest/government/article/14285643/epa-to-strengthen-proposed-rule-on-methane-emissions-from-oil-gas- the rules are written for big oil (Exxon) not little oil. Then big oil absorbs little oil- zero emissions on pneumatic pumps, more stringent regulations on flaring but won't say what those regulations are- use remote sensing to detect methane leaks
Saudi Arabia says US ties are solid as it defends oil policyhttps://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-says-us-ties-are-solid-as-it-defends-oil-policy- “We have had a disagreement with regard to the oil market,” Mr Adel Al-Jubeir
- “Saudi Arabia and China have a huge interest at stake,” he said. “China is our largest trading partner. We have large investments in China and Chinese companies have large investments in Saudi Arabia.” - Saudis are making clear that US-Saudi relations might be "solid" but China is Saudis biggest trading partner.
Opec cuts oil demand growth forecast againhttps://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2390758-opec-cuts-oil-demand-growth-forecast-again- OPEC wants to defend $80/barrel oil- But with inflation is that really more like $65/barrelChina refiners slow down Russian oil purchases as sanctions nearhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-refiners-slow-down-russian-oil-purchases-sanctions-near-trade-2022-11-14/- "There are, of course, many concerns and much confusion regarding to the upcoming price cap, but people think the December-arriving cargoes should be safe (to buy)," a China-based trader said.- Is the slowdown really related to the sanctions or not needing as much oil?- China can't afford $120 barrel oilhttps://www.enverus.com/newsroom/enverus-unearths-full-north-america-inventory-in-basin-by-basin-deep-dive/
Link to Dallas Fed Energy Conference: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/events/2022/22energy
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China’s Xi Jinping to Visit Saudi Arabia Amid Global Reshufflinghttps://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-jinping-to-visit-saudi-arabia-amid-global-reshuffling-11667818979Chinese-Saudi relationship is developing beyond oil. Not sure exactly where that will come. Perhaps tourism? It's not an attempt to push out the US from its position with Saudi Arabia. but China definitely won't criticize Saudi Arabia. Energy Sticker Shock Grabs Spotlight Before Midterms
https://www.wsj.com/articles/energy-sticker-shock-grabs-spotlight-before-midterms-11667817002
More than 50% of Americans said their number 1 concern is the price of gas and consumer foods. 25% said the cost of housing and rent is their biggest concern. Shows that Americans are REALLY concerned about the cost of the living. Will this translate into a win for Republicans in midterms? Or will Biden try to push the windfall tax on oil companies?
GAS PRICE DECLINE HALTS AS GREAT LAKES SOARS
Price of gasoline finally starting to decline, though diesel supplies remain tight in the North and Northeast.
China Weighs Zero-Covid Exit But Proceeds With Caution and Without Timeline https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-weighs-zero-covid-exit-but-proceeds-with-caution-and-without-timeline-11667826209 Is this a result of poor economic results?
What would this do to China's oil consumption?--> also read: "I spent 10 days in a secret Chinese Covid detention centre" https://www.ft.com/content/77622627-9433-445a-a763-a547b77b58ed
UAE will remain oil and gas supplier as long as there is need https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uae-will-remain-oil-gas-supplier-long-there-is-need-president-2022-11-07/Never Too Early to Prepare for Next Winterhttps://www.iea.org/reports/never-too-early-to-prepare-for-next-winterIEA recommends "more rapid deployment of energy efficiency measures, renewables and heat pumps is needed to reduce the risk of a worsening energy and gas crisis." These are not policies that will help. Could suggest building more LNG regasification terminals.Ryan's Latest:
The Permian Basin Has a People Problem: https://www.yahoo.com/video/permian-basin-people-problem-043000319.html
US backs Opec calls for more oil, gas investment https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2385879-us-backs-opec-calls-for-more-oil-gas-investment- The US' top energy envoy Amos Hochstein today supported calls for investment in oil and gas to increase globally alongside spending on the transition to a lower-carbon energy system.
- Say one thing in one environment (Adipec is a safe space to call for more oil and gas investment) and then another when they are speaking ot voters
- Hochstein says we need more investment in oil and gas AND clean energy because they are on "different timelines"Oil is all that Putin has left, U.S. presidential advisor Amos Hochstein sayshttps://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/31/oil-is-all-that-putin-has-left-presidential-advisor-amos-hochstein-says.html
- “Oil is the only thing they have left in that economy … Putin has destroyed the rest of the economy,” - Why don't they do everything they can to lower the price of oil because that would actually hurt Russia's economy.Natural-Gas Prices Have Plunged Into Autumn
https://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-prices-have-plunged-into-autumn-11667084564
- Analysts warn that unusually cold weather could send prices soaring anew this winter, especially in the Northeast where maxed out pipelines have effectively capped output from Appalachia’s prolific producers.- Europe having an unseasonably warm autumn but that doesn't mean it won't be cold later.
Biden admin has discussed slow-rolling military aid to Saudis, including Patriot missiles, as payback for oil production cuthttps://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/biden-admin-discussed-slow-rolling-saudi-military-aid-payback-oil-prod-rcna54505
- this is a can the politicians say they did everything they could to bring down oil prices? or is this something that would actually happen.
Special Guest John Belizaire from Soluna Computinghttps://www.solunacomputing.com/video/soluna-partners-with-texas-wind-farm-to-build-flagship-data-center-in-the-state/- want to make renewable energy a global superpower- up to 30-40% of the power generated by renewable power plants is never used because the grid can't handle it. - Solana uses that energy for computing. Find power plants that have wasted power and build specialized data centers on site to use for computing power.- Focus on computing that is resilient to loss of energy but needs a lot of energy. Focusing on blockchain and crypto-mining. Monetize quickly. They use it.- Data centers are NOT 24-7 - they want to run computing models that aren't time dependent. - do bitcoin mining for 3 years and then convert to other uses. crypto great "bootstrapping industry"- Need distributed computing network - lift and shifting jobs to other facilities if lacking energy.- facility isn't fixed source of energy consumption. can be bigger or smaller depending on needs of grid. like lego blocks.- "green electrons power their computing" looks good on ESG reports.
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