Energy Week

Energy Week

By Ryan RayNews
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Energy Week episodes

  • 202 - Oil Sinks to Six-Month | Saudi Aramco profit soars | Dr. Dean Foreman from API
    Oil Sinks to Six-Month Low on China Outlook, Iran Supply Boost
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-extends-losses-traders-weigh-225340219.html

    China’s Economy Slows Unexpectedly as Covid and Property Woes Mount
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-economy-slows-covid-property-51660559065

    China's Covid and economic policy:
    - were they using covid policy to try to exert a downward pressure on prices?
    - No one was even considering covid as a thing at beginning of 2020.
    - Prices were getting soft in January 2020 - but if you go back and look at what China was doing in terms of building hospitals, shutting down cities you will see it there.
    - What benefit would it be for China to give up tool to shut down cities and control economy?
    - Unemployment for Chinese youth 20%
    - are they lying about the numbers? what purpose would it serve to make numbers less bad than they are, but still bad? or what purpose would it serve to say things are worse than they are?
    - Is oil really falling because of Chinese economic data or is it because of other things and China is a convenient excuse?

    Saudi Aramco profit soars on higher prices and refining margins
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-aramco-profit-soars-higher-prices-refining-margins-2022-08-14/
    - Aramco putting profits into capex

    Dr. Dean Foreman from API about MSR for July
    - How do we explain falling gasoline prices?
    Crude oil is about 60% of input costs for gasoline. So drop in gasoline prices is due to drop in crude oil prices
    All commodities are slipping due to expected global economic weakness

    Dichotomy in MSR:
    - commercial stocks building but when take into account SPR releases it swaps everything that has happened with commercial reserves. Market is watching commercial inventories
    - Note that July has been the highest domestic crude oil production for the month of July - what does this say about whether we might be heading back to record production rates?
    - At the same time we've got highest petroleum export numbers (9.6 million bpd) since 1947 - what do we know about where this oil is coming from and going to? Highest import numbers as well? How do you think the SPR releases play into this?
    - SPR releases aren't playing a bigger role. Admin taking a victory lap for bringing down prices but really its fears of global recession, commodity weakness, demand destruction.
    - Dire global need for oil and natural gas. Numbers show US is playing really crucial role of provider of last resort.
    - What isn't normal is that we are still releasing SPR when prices are in this environment. We aren't at $135/barrel crude oil. "Interesting that reserve releases have continued."
    - Once the SPR releases clear up, should get clearer read on how supply and demand meshes.
    - What about China? Looks like it is doing well in terms of industrial exports. But interest rate cut suggest China's economy needs triage.
    - What happens if a hurricane hits in late August, Sept, Oct that disrupts production on Gulf coast? U.S. inventories aren't bad around US though east coast its low. Internationally theres a shortage of diesel, but a lot is being pulled from US. Heating oil inventories New England are REALLY low for this part of the year. and Diesel stocks are half of what they were. Price pressure for New England is on! Same issue for mid-Atlantic.
    - Industry is doing hurricane drills, plans to seek waivers, etc. Planning for weather disruptions.
    - How will Europe cope with a cold winter? Anecdotally, German households are stockpiling wood.
    - Believes that China should "muddle through" and some goods from China may become less expensive.
    - Despite more drilling, crude oil production actually decreased between June and July. Still 1 million bpd down from highest in 2019/2020
    - NLGs - lots of associated gas produced in TX, get lots of light oil. If produce dry gas like in OH/PA don't get much light oil. Light oil is what we are exporting and is in high demand for foreign buyers.
    - 1/3 well completions in US last year was a DUC. Latest data for July, is that its way down. Can't get completion crews. Can't grow.
    - More than half of growth in oil production this year coming from private equity. They locked in services.

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
    50 min
  • 201 - Why did gasoline demand drop? | Shale drillers focus on returns | Goldman cuts near-term oil forecasts
    Gasoline Demand Dip That Spooked Market Sparks Furor Over US Data
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gasoline-demand-dip-spooked-market-205412111.html
    - issues with the data made it look like gasoline demand was below summer 2020 levels
    - difference between wholesale gasoline supplied and retail demand.
    - check out Rory Johnston's report on this (https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/qc-us-gasoline-demand-data)

    Shale drillers double down on returns over output
    https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2358967-shale-drillers-double-down-on-returns-over-output
    - Shale drillers are spending more on drilling, not to drill more or grow production but to pay more for services and goods
    - OXY, Pioneer aren't growing but XOM plans to grow drilling

    Column: European gas oil futures anticipate recession
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/european-gas-oil-futures-anticipate-recession-kemp-2022-08-08/
    - European Hedge fund and money managers are selling off oil futures and US ones are buying them
    - European economic outlook is worse than in US

    Goldman Sachs cuts near-term oil forecasts but remains bullish
    https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/goldman-sachs-cuts-nearterm-oil-forecasts-remains-bullish
    - Forecast Q3 Brent $110 and Q4 $125 but Brent is at $97 now

    Spain Limits Air-Conditioning to Save Energy
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/05/world/europe/spain-air-conditioning-limits.html
    - public buildings air conditioning set to 81, heating set to 66
    - lights to be turned off

    BlackRock Opening South Florida ‘Snowbird’ Office for Dozens of Employees
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/blackrock-opening-south-florida-snowbird-office-for-dozens-of-employees-11659906957
    - ESG? climate change? do they really believe that Florida is going to be underwater if they are moving there?

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
    33 min
  • 200 - Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia | Would a Russian price cap work?
    Ellen's thoughts on Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia:
    Whether this message is understood by the Biden administration is unclear given the fact that Amos Hochstein's statement after the summit was that he was confident that "there will be a few more steps in the coming weeks from OPEC in terms of oil supplies." The only thing the market should expect from OPEC is that after it meets on August 3, it will unwind the last of its cuts from 2020. Quotas will increase, but this may only result in 200,000 or fewer barrels per day coming on the market because most countries haven't been increasing production very much and are producing well below their quotas. Saudi Arabia will be allowed to produce at 11 million bpd but likely won't. If it hits 10.8 million bpd I would be surprised.

    Biden fails to secure major security, oil commitments at Arab summit
    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/biden-hopes-more-oil-israeli-integration-arab-summit-saudi-2022-07-16/

    Oil market reformer says Russian price cap would fail
     https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-market-reformer-says-russian-price-cap-would-fail-2022-07-18/
    - Will just make prices higher
    - How will they convince Russia to accept less money from India and China for their oil?

    California went big on rooftop solar. Now that’s a problem for landfills
    https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-07-14/california-rooftop-solar-pv-panels-recycling-danger
    - “The industry is supposed to be green,” Vanderhoof said. “But in reality, it’s all about the money.”
    - 80% of the panels are recyclable but they often don't end up being recycled.
    - No one talks about back end trade off with renewables

    U.S. crosses the electric-car tipping point for mass adoption
    https://driving.ca/auto-news/industry/u-s-crosses-the-electric-car-tipping-point-for-mass-adoption
    - How can you compare the US to the United States which is very different, much larger, etc. and say that you know this is the tipping point?

    Europe Must Slash Gas Demand Now Before 'Hard' Winter, IEA Warns
    https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/europe-must-slash-gas-demand-now-before-hard-winter-iea-warns/wcm/a7b11d21-07ff-4ef2-b8ad-5ef031c362bf/amp/
    - burn coal and oil!
    - Why not buy out some fracking companies and funnel them supplies, investment, etc.?

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
    33 min
  • 199 - Biden heads to Middle East | Kunal Patel with the Dallas Fed
    Biden’s Middle East Trip Is a High-Risk Bid to Reset Saudi Relations
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-middle-east-trip-is-a-high-risk-bid-to-reset-saudi-relations-11657481150
    - will he ask for more oil? no indication more Saudi oil would even bring down prices

    Oil From U.S. Reserves Sent Overseas as Gasoline Prices Stay High
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-us-reserves-head-overseas-gasoline-prices-stay-high-2022-07-05/
    - this isn't a BAD thing but politicians who think it is could do damage by trying to curb oil exports from US.

    Gas Station Owners, Blamed When Prices Rose, Face Risks as Prices Fall
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/gas-station-owners-blamed-when-prices-rose-face-risks-as-prices-fall-11657540801

    Special Guest Kunal Patel from Dallas Federal Reserve Oil and Gas Survey
    https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2022/2202.aspx#tab-questions

    What stood out to you in the Q2 survey results? Anything surprising?
    - 200 upstream firms signed up in district - 137 responded.
    - diffusion indices, give direction of where indicator is going.
    - Challenges around cost increases and supply chain issues. Pace of increases is very strong. strongest it's ever been. Firms are dealing with significant cost increases and time lags.

    Supply chain issues - 47% rated them as "significantly negative" and 47% rated them as "slightly negative." What supply issues rated amongst the most difficult to procure for firms? How do you see this as impacting production?
    - steel tubular rated as good with most significant shortage
    - sand also needed for completions. Firms that want to increase activity above plan don't know where they will be able to get steel, labor or sand
    - tariff exemption on Ukrainian steel is helpful but Ukrainian steel mills aren't able to produce. Executive said, get rid of steel tariffs from other countries
    - Sand could be trucked in but also shortage of truck drivers.
    - Will take 7-8 months to get a new well drilled and producing.

    A number of analysts expect U.S. crude oil production to grow by nearly 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) from December 2021 to December 2022. By how much do you expect U.S. oil production to grow?
    37% said they expect oil production to increase by between 800,000bpd and 1 million bpd but almost as many (34%) said they expect production to grow by less than or equal to 800,000 bpd. Are analysts being too optimistic with their growth forecasts, especially given how executives feel supply chain issues are impacting them?
    - hard to say whether analysts are being too optimistic.
    - higher prices provide incentive to grow. But cost inflation is major. Most people thought costs would increase 10%, but its likely much more than that (maybe 25%). Dallas Fed thinks it will be less than 1million bpd growth

    Government regulations are still a significant factor driving uncertainty for firms but supply chain issues, inflation and labor shortages have eclipsed that - is this a change from earlier surveys?
    - generally higher oil prices mean more money and less uncertainty. Now, prices increased but uncertainty also increased.
    - Lots of comments saying government regulation is important.
    - Kansas Fed asked same question and firms said that government regulations were cause of most uncertainty, not supply chain, labor, inflation etc. Different region - not the Permian. OK, CO, WY.

    mFomePSRV3kJjHHEsiXR

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
    47 min
  • 198 - G7 will stand with Ukraine | Will an export ban help or hurt? | Chet Thompson, CEO of AFPM
    Pledging new sanctions, G7 to stand with Ukraine 'for as long as it takes'
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/g7-hike-sanctions-russia-close-oil-price-cap-deal-us-official-2022-06-27/
    - What can G7 nations do to Russia at this point?
    - Recession could send prices down and that might hurt Russia
    - How can the plan to put a price cap on Russian be implemented?

    Output from OPEC+ to go down in 2023 as sanctions take their toll on Russian volumes
    https://www.offshore-energy.biz/output-from-opec-to-go-down-in-2023-as-sanctions-take-their-toll-on-russian-volumes/

    Oil prices could slump to $75 a barrel in a recession — or jump to $150 if European sanctions slam Russian supplies, BofA says
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-brent-crude-recession-outlook-europe-russia-sanctions-bofa-2022-6
    - a recession could hurt Russian revenue

    US Export Ban Likely to Backfire, Market Players Say
    https://www.energyintel.com/00000181-732e-d443-a9db-f7aee6290000

    Interview with Chet Thompson, CEO of AFPM
    - Represent US refining industry
    - 7 of the refiners they represent got letters from President about the price of gasoline and diesel suggesting that prices are high because they are sitting on refining capacity.
    - Refiners don't love where gasoline and diesel prices are today either
    - Had been engaging with Biden admin for weeks about how to help with supply/demand imbalances so tone and rhetoric or letter caught off guard.
    - Public should appreciate that refiners aren't holding back capacity.
    - Industry is running at 94% capacity, which is basically full out
    - President Biden's policies are participating to situation. Anti-fuel producer rhetoric is high
    - Thursday meeting was constructive, hopefully some good outcomes
    - Regulatory uncertainty - what keeps industry up at night? Regulatory uncertainty was the number one answer.
    - How is an industry supposed to prepare and comply with regulations when they are habitually late or unclear?
    - Tailpipe emissions standards basically mean 17% EVs
    - California wants to ban ICE by 2035!
    - Crude is to refining industry, what flour is to a baker.
    - Refining has much smaller margins historically - they are NOT big oil
    - Refining industry doesn't like crude oil prices where they are now.
    - Crude oil has no value without refining.
    - Educating public on role of refining in gasoline. Without refining there is no energy security. pressing folks to understand that for a long time.
    - 60% of gasoline price is crude oil. Refining is a little higher component of gasoline price than it has been. 25% range, according to EIA. The rest is marketing.
    - Of the 150,000 gasoline stations, 95% are independently operated, not the company that is the brand name on the station.
    - How to make the message stick? Historically people have taken it for granted that gasoline is less than a bottle of water and that you can take kids to school, heat houses for granted. Now people are taking notice.
    - Loss of refining capacity in US. Why? regulatory policies. 40% of all shutdowns, RFS contributing to shutdowns. People are more open to having these conversations now that gasoline is so expensive.
    - We take responsibility to provide energy very seriously
    - Producing and refining energy is important to our country. lifeblood of communities. we need to produce products that the world needs in a clearer, safer way and they are doing it.
    - Should talk about evolutions not transitions
    - Shouldn't transition until we are actually ready
    - Right now folks are talking about the margins we are making. A couple years ago we were talking about negative crude. Our guys were losing millions of dollars. Refiners and manufacturers couldn't shut down, had to go to work and produce fuels and petrochemicals that were needed to get through Covid era even when experiencing huge losses.
    - policies they admin CAN adopt that will bring down prices but that won't come through hostile policies. President should get out in front of a refinery and say "this industry is important" and "adopt policies to further US independence and good things will follow."

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
    48 min
  • 197 - We need more production | Dr. Dean Foreman API
    Drilling vs returns. U.S. oil producers' tradeoff as windfall tax threatens
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/drilling-vs-returns-us-oil-producers-tradeoff-windfall-tax-threatens-2022-06-13/?taid=62a72ca5802cad0001f87694
    - will the US pass a windfall tax?
    - lockdowns have helped created this situation
    - market responds to incentives. interference in market has gotten us to this spot. why take it out on oil and gas companies.
    - if we were to windfall tax these companies, is there any indication that this money will be used to anything beneficial to consumers

    High Oil and Gas Prices Test Drive a Global Carbon Tax
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-oil-and-gas-prices-test-drive-a-global-carbon-tax-11654956001

    Biden looking to address oil refinery capacity, White House adviser says
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/biden-looking-address-oil-refinery-capacity-white-house-adviser-says-2022-06-10/
    - "He is looking for what he can do administratively, whether that's working with oil companies and refineries asking them, 'We recognize your back capacity challenges - what can we do to help you maintain your refining capacity and bring more oil online?'"

    US set to resume onshore leasing next week
    https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2340345-us-set-to-resume-onshore-leasing-next-week
    -will there be interest in these leases? is the acreage of interest to drillers?

    Saudi cuts crude supply to some Chinese refiners in July, sources say
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/saudi-cuts-crude-supply-some-asian-refiners-july-sources-2022-06-10/
    - where will oil that isn't going to China refineries end up? Europe?

    Interview with Dr. Foreman and the Monthly Statistical Report
    - Continuation of same from April
    - energy demand depends on overall level of economic activity. We are still historically above average (3% growth)
    - Prediction of 2 million bpd of global oil demand growth. before Russia/Ukraine demand was outstripping production
    - Slight increase in oil production. Is it enough to move the needle?
    - Refining products is at or above 5 year range. But without as much upstream production the refiners are drawing down inventories.
    - As a result of Russia/Ukraine sudden record pull for US oil and products out of US. 9.6 million bpd of US gross petroleum exports. Means we are critical to global supply.
    - Have to look at, especially on coastal areas of US, stocks are below 5 year average.
    - API quarterly a year ago was showing that supply gap was coming. Starts with investment and then goes to drilling. Weekly data showed that a supply gap was coming. EIA methodology relies on older data, so leads to some inaccuracies.
    - 3 months ago the world deficit of supply was quantified at 3 million bpd. May outlook now is 4.2 million bpd.
    - Big disagreement between EIA and IEA about how much oil from Russia is off the market.
    - Lots of uncertainty about how much supply is there -- this is impacting price setting. Russian oil production is more likely to be more resilient than expected but can they ship the oil?
    - Policies attacking industry are culpable.
    - A ban on petroleum oil exports would be ugly - coastal areas need the most trade and would be hit hardest. The reason the east coast has higher price increases than the west coast is because trade with Europe isn't functioning the way it was. Can't get products from the middle of the country because they are being exported.
    - heating oil stocks are critically low on the east coast.
    - strategic reserves that are there to back up commercial reserves but they are being drawn down because of the unprecedentedly large releases.
    - 40% of what is released is getting exported.
    - US refiners need heavy oil to run their crackers at full speed but US SPR releases have all been light oil, which explains why so much is being exported. There is heavy oil in the SPR, but its not being released.
    - still down more than 1 million bpd of production. If you went hard, you could grow that much, we've seen it. BUT lower rig productivity (down 20% year on year as of April), fewer DUCs - only 4% of new wells were DUCs in April now. Have almost exported in terms of production. Gap of 25% in terms of drilling activity compared to 2019.
    - industrial side of the economy is still growing but more slowly. consumer sentiment, preliminary reading, for June is lowest since the survey was started. Consumers are WORRIED.
    - Critical that we see, with sincerity, the policy proposals to incentivize US production. If none, it will be hard to dig ourselves out of the hole we are in.

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
    53 min
  • 196 - China looks to reopen | Lululemon raises prices | Biden uses defense act
    U.S. to let Eni, Repsol ship Venezuela oil to Europe for debt
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-us-let-eni-repsol-ship-venezuela-oil-europe-debt-sources-2022-06-05/
    - will this even help Europe that much because VZ doesn't make that much oil?
    - is this a prelude to more relaxing of sanctions?

    Biden invokes Defense Production Act to boost solar panel manufacturing
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-invokes-defense-production-act-boost-solar-panel-manufacturing-rcna32120
    - How is this going to help anyone? Is there a shortage of US solar panels?

    Inflation: Lululemon is raising prices as petroleum costs bite
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-lululemon-is-jacking-up-prices-by-10-103801531.html

    COLUMN-Oil bulls emboldened by EU sanctions and China easing lockdowns: Kemp
    https://www.reuters.com/article/oil-global-kemp-idAFL1N2XT0R8
    - What is the reason behind China's relaxing on restrictions? economy? elections?

    Biden Has ‘Only Bad Options’ for Bringing Down Oil Prices
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/05/business/biden-oil-saudi-arabia.html

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
    40 min
  • 195 - ESG out of style? | Garret Golding from Dallas Fed
    White House LNG Task Force Compared to Secretive Cheney Oil Group
    https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/white-house-lng-task-force-compared-to-secretive-cheney-oil-group
    - criticized for lack of transparency

    HSBC suspends banker over climate change comments
    https://www.ft.com/content/8e1a16ea-bf63-45f8-81af-dc41c0df4e06

    Energy crunch causing ESG to fall out of favor, warns ex-BP CEO
    https://www.worldoil.com/news/2022/5/20/energy-crunch-causing-esg-to-fall-out-of-favor-warns-ex-bp-ceo/

    Ukraine war creates new tensions for ESG investors
    https://www.ft.com/content/b2869451-0899-4e02-8fc8-23d6d2ba9d17

    - ESG: is it the first thing to go now that there's high oil prices?
    - Elon Musk calls out ESG because Tesla isn't in top ten from S&P but Exxon is
    - How can an oil and gas company be higher rated than an electric car company? Lots of reasons that have to do with biases in ESG ratings
    - Are ESG investors missing out of rally in oil and gas? not necessarily.
    - Can shale companies operate at higher interest rates?

    Special Guest Garret Golding from Dallas Fed
    https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0510
    - long term decline in refining capacity in US - most acute in Northeast.
    - delicate balance completely blown up by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Diesel/distillate market went haywire.
    - Europe grabbing barrels from Gulf Coast and Northeast can't get Gulf Coast barrels due to Jones Act and backwardation.
    - But this is changing! Lots of distillate going to New York. Colonial distillate system is now full.
    - Will prices drop? Hopefully.
    - Regional dynamics impact retail prices
    - drop in oil prices is asymmetric with gasoline prices. Retail prices come down 3 times more slowly than oil prices. Much slower decline angers people but its how the market functions. Retail prices don't climb up at same wholesale levels. Store owner margins get compressed on the way up so they need to make up for it on the way down.
    - Diesel is actually a less expensive fuel to produce but other factors are making it more expensive
    - Middle distillates, lots of emphasis on producing more jet fuel and now diesel fuel. Refinery configurations aren't set up for it.
    - Price spike may not persist
    - Shortages not a real possibility for midwestern agricultural industry. price will be more a problem.
    - volatility and high prices are arguably as bad for producers as they are for consumers. Demand destruction/recession would be bad. E&Ps would be happy with $80/barrel and are happy with $100 NOW but don't want it to remain. Would rather have stability over years than triple digit prices.
    - high cost of drilling is huge issue for E&Ps and its getting worse, not better. Equipment orders are getting more backed up. Well casing, coil tubing. Big limitation on all the calls for them to produce more. Couldn't even if they wanted to. Labor is another piece. They are hiring but not adding as many as they would like. No improvement in labor bottlenecks over the last few months.
    - Find out more at www.dallasfed.org. Tuesdays and Thursdays publish pieces. Heavy energy focus. Survey once a quarter. Lots of data available there as well.

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
    48 min
  • 194 - Aramco reports record profits | Domestic flights fall by 17$ | Dr. Dean Foreman with the API
    Oil giant Aramco reports record first quarter as oil prices soar
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/15/aramco-worlds-largest-company-reports-record-first-quarter-as-oil-prices-soar.html

    - Aramco not doing share buybacks like other oil companies. Awarding 1 share for every 10
    - increasing capacity to 13 million bpd by 2026/2027 but will they ever produce that much?
    - the longer Saudi Arabia fails to produce up to its OPEC quota the more people will believe they can't. Damaging narrative could push oil prices up more.

    Domestic flight bookings fell by 17% in April as air fares continued to rise
    https://www.businessinsider.com/domestic-flight-bookings-fell-17-in-april-as-fares-continue-to-rise-2022-5
    - can't go anywhere for less than $700?!
    - will this crimp the economy and demand?

    Can China preserve both its economy and its zero-tolerance COVID-19 policy?
    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-05-06/can-china-preserve-both-its-economy-and-its-zero-tolerance-covid-19-policy
    - Will China just never open up again?
    - Will it keep its people inside China?
    - Impact on Belt Road initiative. Tourism to places. What does it mean to US companies with offices in China?
    - How much of global oil demand is based on global travel between China and rest of world?

    Dr. Dean Foreman and API
    - highest quarter of US petroleum demand in history. but US economy contracted in Q1.
    - Tale of 1st 2 months and last 2 months. January and February were very high. Pulled back in March and April data shows big drop. 19.3 million bpd demand.
    - Biggest change is in intermediate products in petrochemicals. Consumer goods are slowing down.
    - Motor fuels and price repression: seeing some of that. gasoline demand has leveled off even though seasonally it should be going up. Distillate demands going down. Over $6/gallon for diesel in some states is causing fuel substitution.
    - Supply side: would suspect that given drilling activity increases should see more oil and did see that - increase of 100,000-200,000 bpd but NLGs went DOWN.
    - Demand outpacing supply, which didn't increase on whole.
    - Fewer DUCs, rig activity not increasing. Oil services costs are escalating.
    - All of this means need even more drilling activity to get back to 2019 production levels. Demand is back at 2019 levels.
    - Started year as net importer. But with Russia/Ukraine now having record pull for US exports. Crisis period with global refiners pulling oil and product out of US, adding to price pressure. Normally being an exporter is a good story, but when you are short on product that's bad for prices.
    - Trade is working great on West coast, but East coast not doing well because they generally trade products with Europe, and that's under pressure in Europe.
    - Historically has been very resilient system but unprecedented times and discontinuities and uncertainties about how much Russian crude is lost from market.
    - Likely we are seeing demand destruction. Summer driving season increase will be muted. But with airline prices up, people may drive more (fuel substitution).
    - lowest commercial crude oil inventories since 2014. normally through April 2022, year to date, you would be building up inventories as refiners draw on inventories to spool up for summer driving season. Average build over decade (excluding 2is 020) 40 million barrels. This year 1.8 million barrels.
    - SPR. DoE wants to replenish SPR soon. Signaling to market that starting in fall would like to replenish. Expect supply response.
    - EIA thinks less than 1 million bpd lost. But IEA saying as much as 3 million bpd lost by May.
    - Price reaction to uncertainty over how much Russian oil is lost to market.
    - If we release 180 million barrels from SPR over next several months will have lowest inventories since 1983.
    - Political reactions to high prices: NOPEC legislation (lift anti-trust legislation) Price controls (unlikely to get much political support), proposals to re-ban oil exports from US.
    - No US policies are supporting return to big production

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
    45 min
  • 193 - China buys more from Russia | Nigerian airlines to halt operations | India buys more LNG from Russia
    China's Imports From Russia Hit Record on Energy Price Rises
    https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/chinas-imports-from-russia-hit-record-on-energy-price-rises
    - China IS importing more oil from Russia despite the Chinese lockdowns and news that a major Chinese oil company claims they don't plan to increase imports from Russia

    India Buyers Grab Discounted Russia LNG Shunned by Rest of World
    https://m.economictimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/india-buyers-grab-discounted-russia-lng-shunned-by-rest-of-world/amp_articleshow/91438534.cms
    - If war ended tomorrow, how much would oil prices drop?

    Nigerian airlines to halt operations over rising jet fuel costs
    https://www.reuters.com/article/nigeria-airlines/update-1-nigerian-airlines-to-halt-operations-over-rising-jet-fuel-costs-idUSL2N2WY2EW

    California AG subpoenas Exxon for details on role in global plastic pollution
    https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/california-ag-subpoenas-exxon-details-role-plastic-waste-crisis-2022-04-28/

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
    25 min

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Ellen Wald and Ryan Ray discuss the week's events in energy, and what it all means to you.