Energy Week

NJ Ayuk's Book:https://amzn.to/3dUujVq

US urges domestic oil producers to raise output
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2283072-us-urges-domestic-oil-producers-to-raise-output
- Jennifer Granholm tells members of the National Petroleum Council to please drill and hire people
- Also says Biden won't return to a crude oil export ban

CHINA DATA: Independent refiners lift run rates to 5-month high as margins hold
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/121421-china-data-independent-refiners-lift-run-rates-to-5-month-high-as-margins-hold
- China indep refineries increasing run rates to enjoy attractive margins
- Is this a good sign for the Chinese economy or not?

Europe facing record low gas storage by winter's end
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/europe-facing-record-low-gas-storage-by-winters-end-2021-12-14/
- Russia hasn't fulfilled its promise to fill up Gazprom's oil stocks
- Russia shouldn't be counted on to keep its promises

The Federal Reserve Faces a Troubling 1965 Parallel
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-14/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-troubling-1965-inflation-parallel
- Argues that the fed needs to aggressively raise interest rates to get inflation down to 2% but the current Fed doesn't seem willing to do this because it would the stock market

European Union stands united on Russia sanctions, top diplomat says
https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-says-studying-russia-sanctions-with-britain-us-2021-12-13/
- Is the threat of sanctions real?
- If you sanction Russian energy it will hurt Europe
- Will Russia actually invade Ukraine? Many think this is unlikely, especially in the winter?

Dr. Foreman and the Monthly Statistical Review
- Surprising things from 2021: strength of demand and lack of investment and political shift that has occured this year
- Trucking and distillate demand strong in November: retail model in America has shifted towards online. gasoline is slightly down compared to 2019 but diesel is up, jet fuel down and materials up. Trucking has buoyed distillate demand.
- shipping helped double double residual fuel demand
- Inflation: fuel prices are contributing to inflation but even if you take food and energy out, inflation is still going up. energy price is elevated and impacts 20-30% of food costs (fertilizer, transportation, etc.) Inflation is making things $350 more expensive for average US household, which most households don't have. GRound up data says this is a pressure point for households.
- Reading the energy data for the future starts with the economy - despite all of the concerns, consensus estimates are showing 4.2% global growth in 2022 and 3.2% global growth in 2023. Economic growth is depending on oil and gas availability and need more to fuel economic growth. Inflation could take the wind out of the global economy, but not sure yet.
- Correlation between spending growth and consumer sentiment.
- Economic indicators are showing economic strength but there are a number of pressure points that could take us off track.
- Oil and gas projects in funnel - anything past point of no return we've seen followed through, other things canceled. LNG projects canceled, petrochemical projects completed not canceled, refining projects canceled?
- majority of global energy investment is in upstream (drilling). If looking at drilling activity as corresponding with investment, we are still down 30% from where we were in 2019.
- International gas markets are a microcosm of what happens with a complete disconnect between supply and demand. Spot prices in Netherlands are showing never before seen prices.
- Monthly average prices in excess of $35 per million BTUs in Europe and Asia
- In US we've pulled back prices to under $4 per million BTU. Gas markets are regionally disconnected and little equalization seen
- Why is there a dearth of investment? Supply chain, Covid, etc. How to remedy that? Lack of skilled labor to replace people when they go out with Covid. Problems getting pipes etc. through Port of Louisiana and trucked to where it is needed. Banks closing off credit lines, multilateral lines don't want to lend internationally to emerging economies. Immense debt taken on by companies is catching up with them. Policy issues - industry could use some help to get back up from recession and policy headwinds are against them, making drilling more expensive. Hard to make long-lived investments in industry when policy is against it even though market shows how much US NEEDS oil and gas drilling.
- Why are prices up? drilling down, imports up, inventories low
- U.S. exports: products exports down, crude oil imports dropped, crude oil exports increased this week. Average net petroleum imports for last 4 weeks is about 1 million bpd for U.S.
- Could potentially see nearly doubling of petroleum imports!
- If the economy is going to contract, recession then maybe we don't need more investment in oil and gas
- If interest rates, what is the implication? US stands out in a negative way in terms of debt - expected to careen out whereas others are expected to remain flat. US has no trouble facing debt now but second only to Japan in relying on short term financing to place 45% of its debt.
- If suddenly take 3 million bpd of US oil exports off the market, could put world into recession. Would be like Abqaiq attack. Have a short term impact to US prices but then would even out. Instantly East and West coasts would see higher prices.
- Exports shouldn't be blamed for higher prices.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Biden Official Heckled by Oil Group After Urging Shale Boost
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-06/biden-official-heckled-after-urging-shale-to-boost-oil-supplies
- was it really a heckle? or just a little pushback?

European Power Prices Climbs in Freezing Cold Weather This Week
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/european-power-prices-climbs-in-freezing-cold-weather-this-week-1.1691679
- US temps are up which is has brought natural gas prices down in the US
- But in Europe, price increase of 69%

Saudis Raise Oil Prices for Asia, U.S. Despite Omicron’s Spread
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-arabia-raises-oil-prices-122146298.html
- Aramco prices January Arab Light to Asia at $3.30 above benchmark
- Amin Nasser says omicron not a threat to demand and market has over-reacted
- OPEC+ message to the market that it believes the global economy will continue to be strong

JP Morgan sees oil prices hitting $125 in 2022, $150/bbl in 2023
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/jp-morgan-sees-oil-prices-hitting-125-2022-150bbl-2023-2021-12-02/
- Why? JP Morgan thinks that OPEC+ will slow down production increases because the prices won't be high enough
- This seems to be a ridiculous assumption to me.
- The bank forecast global oil demand to reach 99.8-101.5 million barrels per day in 2022-23.

China Seeks First Military Base on Africa’s Atlantic Coast, U.S. Intelligence Finds
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-seeks-first-military-base-on-africas-atlantic-coast-u-s-intelligence-finds-11638726327
- Is China's military prowess really as significant as say, Nazi Germany?
- Ryan's read - trying to do whatever they can to keep the top down economy afloat. Investment in Africa is also to create jobs for Chinese
- Is China heading out of Africa?
- Will China invest in African oil and gas production? Especially when western countries are not as interested in investing in oil and gas production in developing countries.
- protecting mineral rights?

OPEC's power was waning. Soon it may have more sway than ever
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/02/energy/opec-market-power/index.html
- "The only producers that have put in the investment that's needed [to sustain long-term production] are Saudi Aramco and Adnoc," said Ellen Wald, author of the book "Saudi, Inc.," referring to state oil firms in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. "That shifts the balance over to OPEC."
- If shale producers don't return to exponential growth they may never be able to challenge OPEC in the same way again?

Global oil CEOs stress need for fossil fuels despite push for cleaner energy
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/houston-oil-conference-speakers-pull-out-over-omicron-worries-2021-12-06/
- Will oil and gas make its case for why fossil fuels are still necessary?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Oil Price Slumps on Fears of New Covid-19 Restrictions
https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-price-slumps-on-fears-of-new-covid-19-restrictions-11637953717
Interesting Black Friday for markets - oil plummeting, stock markets plummeting

Stocks, oil regain some composure after Omicron battering
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-1-pix-2021-11-28/

Germany says working with U.S. on Nord Stream 2 deal
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/germany-says-working-with-us-nord-stream-2-deal-2021-11-28/
- Germany claims it will make "strong public messages" against Russia if it tries to invade Ukraine
- Can Nordstream 2 get online in time to help with European energy crisis or is it mired in bureaucratic mess

Saudi oil minister not worried about new Covid variant
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2278117-saudi-oil-minister-not-worried-about-new-covid-variant
- If not worried about Omicron what are they worried about? stockbuilds and SPR releases
- If OPEC pauses its increases, will that be seen as a win for Biden?

Europe’s Energy Crisis Is About To Get Worse As Winter Arrives
https://gcaptain.com/europes-energy-crisis-is-about-to-get-worse-as-winter-arrives/

Special Guest Rory Johnston
- Toronto-based commodities analysts, formerly for Scotia Bank
- Currently at Price Street and Commodity Context -
- Sign up for his substack at: https://commoditycontext.substack.com
- Data driven, chart-driven to discuss what analysts look at for the common-man
- Where is the oil market right now? oversupplied? under-supplied? - slightly under supplied in a longer-term basis. tremendous amount of inventory flowing out of commercial storage around the world. Competing with new production. The financial is dragging the physical along.
- The financial markets are leading the physical markets which can cause big swings
- We are already in a speculative-liquidation cycle
- Cyclical peak hit back in October
- Financial markets think we are tight, for whatever reason, manifesting with tight markets. But we also have slow clearance on physical. Physical signals have been flashing weak from $40 up to $85.
- Saudi Arabia's primary concern is long-term demand, long-term prices, price dove within OPEC. Oversupplied markets in 2022 is counting on at least 1 million bpd more coming from US shale patch.
- In the past, when prices hit $80, we got over 2 million bpd of production growth. Now we aren't. Not happening yet.
- OPEC thinks we need higher prices to test sensitivity of shale. If we don't get 1 million bpd + of production from shale, then it's a deeply undersupplied market.
- OPEC+ is like trying to turn an aircraft carrier as opposed to a speed boat
- Thinks OPEC will likely stick with the plan, although Black Friday changed the calculus
- JP Morgan doesn't think OPEC+ has capacity to increase production by 400,000 bpd more. Can probably increase for another couple of months but some producers will not be able to reach their baselines. Some will. West African producers may have difficulty.
- Divergence with natural gas prices in US and Europe.
- US natural gas prices went up because big change in US LNG exports - they have grown a lot. Initially LNG exports were a mildly flexible source of demand. good for North American energy security on a long-term basis. But if there was an exceptionally cold winter they could be redirected to domestic use. BUT that won't happen now because LNG export prices are 6 times Henry Hub prices!
- LNG market is still pricey, but North American demand looks a little weaker now based on temperature forecasts.
- European natural gas inventories are already at a low point and the start of cold weather is hitting them. It would take a lot to see that in North America.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Oil prices are finally falling. Thank China and Joe Biden
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/18/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
- Is it really China and Biden? Or was it news of lockdowns in Europe?
- Who knows more? the big banks or OPEC/IEA
- Monthly OPEC meetings a plus?

U.S. asks Japan, China, others to consider tapping oil reserves
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-us-asks-big-countries-coordinate-releases-oil-reserves-sources-2021-11-17/
- Will an SPR release have enough of an impact to help Biden's political ratings?

‘Climate Funds’: Who’s Driving the Increased Demand
https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-funds-whos-driving-growing-demand-11637165424
- who invests in these funds? Mostly women, millennials and high-net worth investors
- are the funds actually helping the climate? the jury is still out.

Dr. Jeff Colgan - New book, "Partial Hegemony: Oil Politics and International Order"
- Is OPEC really a cartel? - is it a group of producers that can actually control market to a certain degree or enough to move prices?
- Argues that OPEC is not actually a cartel - HQ in Vienna, meetings all the time but can't really change what its members do
- Saudi Arabia has market power but it doesn't need OPEC to do that.
- Are the members of OPEC actually greater than the sum of their parts?
- OPEC isn't amplifying their power in any way.
- How do we know this? OPEC members cheat on their quotas 96% of the time (since 1982)
- Has this changed with addition of Russia and creation of OPEC+? But that's a producer to producer relationship. There are 3 really big producers in the world (Saudi Arabia, Russia and US). It matters when they fight, but that will happen without OPEC+ existing at all.
- OPEC used to be a collective bargaining unit and acted as such through its founding until 1973.
- OPEC's announcements and monthly meetings matter because they shape perceptions. But don't impact fundamentals over a period of 3-6 months. Media tends to overreact to OPEC.
- OPEC is constantly being sued in Europe and US for being a cartel. Antitrust suites all the time. OPEC general council doesn't want OPEC to call itself a cartel to avoid legal repercussions.
- Politicians in US also love to have OPEC to blame when prices go up and down as well.
- Information sharing within OPEC is a very valuable part of what OPEC does, especially for poor countries that don't have the money to shell out for data. Though joining OPEC does cost several million dollars a year
- Biden is trying to walk a difficult line with oil - green agenda vs. more oil from OPEC?
- BIden memo to FTC is political theater as well.
- Coordinated SPR release to change market fundamentals and/or perceptions but India and China aren't members of the IEA.
- Original purpose of SPRs were for emergency situations, not just because gasoline is a little more expensive. Bad habit to use it this way. Most of the time these kinds of releases don't move prices much at all - other than after a natural disaster or state of emergency.
- Find him on twitter @JeffDColgan
https://www.amazon.com/Partial-Hegemony-Politics-International-Order/dp/0197546382/

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

New podcast sponsor: https://energyweekpodcast.phonesites.com

Saudi Aramco Raises Oil Prices After OPEC+ Defies Biden
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-aramco-raises-oil-prices-184252526.html
- Large jump in Aramco price of Arab light to Asia
- Messaging from OPEC+ is that they managing the oil market effectively and going a good job at it
- Angry protestors burning the OPEC flag?

Biden noncommittal on a potential Strategic Petroleum Reserve release
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/06/politics/biden-strategic-petroleum-reserve/index.html

Biden could announce action on oil this week -U.S. Energy secretary
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-oil-biden-idAFL1N2RZ0VD

- What could Biden do?
- SPR release? Would be transitory
- Cut federal gasoline tax

Biden admin considering shutting down another pipeline, drawing criticism and dire warnings as winter nears
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-admin-considering-shutting-down-michigan-pipeline
- turns out Biden admin is considering ALL options not just shutting down the pipelien

Russia Keeps Grip on Europe’s Gas Market Despite Putin’s Pledge
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/russia-keeps-grip-on-europe-s-gas-market-despite-putin-s-pledge
- not surprising that Putin didn't keep his promise

U.S. Energy Prices Are Breaking a Historic Pattern. The Results Could Be Severe.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-s-energy-prices-breaking-historic-pattern-51635879750
- higher prices in the summer vs. lower prices in the winter
- dislocation of historic patterns could mean problems with electricity prices regardless of how cold it is

Biden Energy Sec Granholm says cost of heating homes this winter will 'be more expensive' than last year
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-energy-sec-granholm-cost-of-heating-homes-more-expensive

Cold wave sweeps 90 percent of regions across China
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202111/1238366.shtml
China’s daily coal output hits annual high, easing power supply shortage
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202111/1238258.shtml

- China has early cold snap AND coal supplies reach highest levels in years, expected to reach 12 million tonnes soon.
- Have enough for 20 days of use - landmark because means supplies no longer short
- How much of this announcement is propaganda to convince

EPA unveils plan on controls of greenhouse gases and VOCs from oil and gas upstream
https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/government/article/14213378/epa-unveils-plan-on-controls-of-greenhouse-gases-and-vocs-from-oil-and-gas-upstream
- 577 page proposal
- kicking the little companies while they are trying to expand drilling

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

- Goldman Sachs says global oil demand is nearing 100 million bpd and set to exceed this number in early 2022 with jet fuel demand growing.

US energy secretary blames Opec ‘cartel’ for high petrol prices
https://www.ft.com/content/cecf912d-705e-47b0-9ceb-911e7c517fd8
- Is OPEC just an all purpose villain here?
- energy prices are starting to impact consumer spending

Oil Rises on Speculation OPEC May Spurn Biden’s Appeal on Output
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-drops-start-key-week-231313201.html
- SPR release vs. Drop sanctions on Iran?
- If US released 100m barrels of oil, that's only 1 days worth of global oil consumption so it wouldn't have much of an impact on prices

Biden says he worries that cutting oil production too fast will hurt working people
https://www.npr.org/2021/10/31/1050958992/biden-says-he-worries-that-cutting-oil-production-too-fast-will-hurt-working-peo

Prince Charles calls for 'warlike footing' in climate fight as world leaders gather
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/cop26-prince-charles-warn-world-act-climate-change-rcna4217
- Is Prince Charles encouraging using the military to force the end of fossil fuels?

Special Guest GTherm
- integrating water flooding, Co2 flooding and water pulsing to impact well
- generating electricity from wells to run oil field and using that electricity for other purposes
- CO2 is valuable and can be captured and injected back into the reservoir for CO2 flooding without having to pay for CO2. Can also inject it into a vertical greenhouse to increase agricultural output.
- electricity produced won't go into the grid, but can be used to feed data centers, for high energy processes like cement.
- Bitcoin mining centers are huge in amount of electricity they consume - more than traditional data centers. Pilot program to provide power to bitcoin mining center in Texas. Clean operating data centers too.
- This system is used for depleted fields. Optimized existing processes and combined them into a fully integrated system.
- Better than carbon capture? Profitability is key.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Wall Street projects a “higher for longer” era for oil prices
ttps://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/10/22/wall-street-projects-a-higher-for-longer-era-for-oil-prices
- An era has to be long enough to change how the industry functions
- Citigroup Inc. said in a report this month that crude below $30 and above $60 looks unsustainable in the long-term.
- Ed Morse thinks prolonged over $50 will bring 7 million bpd on the market

Nearly half of American companies say they are short on skilled workers
https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/25/economy/business-conditions-worker-shortage/index.html
- will "labor shortage" (companies' inability to hire workers) create permanently elevated business costs?

Solar and Wind Force Poverty on Africa
https://www.wsj.com/articles/solar-wind-force-poverty-on-africa-climate-change-uganda-11635092219
- Africa can’t sacrifice its future prosperity for Western climate goals
- Neo-imperialism to impose a narrative that Africa can't access fossil fuels and must be consigned to solar/wind which isn't nearly as effective at providing electricity.
- OPEC is sympathetic to this message. Will Africa save OPEC? Can OPEC save Africa?

Tesla shares rise after Hertz says it will buy 100,000 electric vehicles
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/25/tesla-shares-up-on-news-hertz-will-purchase-100000-electric-vehicles.html
- Good idea for Hertz because Teslas will be a big draw for people who want to drive Teslas on vacation.

Ahead of COP26, Saudi Arabia Resists Calls to Cut Oil Investment
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ahead-of-cop26-saudi-arabia-resists-calls-to-cut-oil-investment-11634911150

Special Guest Rhett Bennett of Black Mountain Co.
https://www.blackmountainoilandgas.com
- Drilling situation in the US: real issues from labor situation. Labor is always a bit of an issue in Permian, but also in Eagle Ford. On the drilling side as well. Supply chain issues, also exacerbated for oil industry because of severity of downturn.
- metals aren't available to implement transition in the way needed for transition
- Sees oil over $100, higher natural gas prices this winter
- Price increases will drive activity higher. Private companies are drilling a lot, public companies more constrained.
- "If you are private, it's a beautiful scenario." Inputs on the cost side of the ledger haven't risen nearly as much as the returns side of the ledger.
- Haynesville wells pay for themselves in 90 days - but they are quite dry, Permian wells are more heavily oil weighted.
- 2022 budgets: lots of E&Ps will want to increase drilling activity 20-30% and will want budget increases of similar amount. But will also have inflationary pressures that will hit production targets and so many will fall short.
- E&Ps did better consolidating during downturn that service companies so there's still a lot of competition in service sector
- Consequences of capital starvation. Shale is a treadmill. If you hop off, looking at 50-60% decline rate.
- Underground carbon sequestration (CCUS) - will it be economical without legislation on carbon tax in the US? CCUS in Australia - lots of capacity for sequestration in Australia.
- Lots of countries don't have the right geology to inject and store carbon. Potential for this to become an import/export industry.
- Sees battery tech as competitive with ICE engines. Problem is materials and minerals.
- Metals and mining has had capital starvation for decades now. Average mine takes 7 years to go from discovery to production.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Ellen R. Wald, Ph.D.
2:21 PM (0 minutes ago)
to me, Ellen

Crazy’ Bets on $200 Oil Invade the Options Market
https://www.wsj.com/articles/crazy-bets-on-200-oil-invade-the-options-market-11634463002
- Will WTI go over $100 per barrel
- Options don't mean that traders actually think that oil will go to that high but the best indicate directional moves

Energy Crisis Prompts Asia to Turn to USA for Oil
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/energy_crisis_prompts_asia_to_turn_to_usa_for_oil-18-oct-2021-166745-article
- Asian buyers are buying more US sour crude cargoes for delivery in November and December
- Mostly because WTI is trading at a $3 discount to Brent

Will $80 Oil Open Shale's Spigots?
https://www.energyintel.com/0000017c-85a2-d141-a17c-a5fad5170000
- What if US rig count suddenly increases? Will that change OPEC's calculus?
- If Permian increases, U.S. natural gas production will increase too.

Coast guard: California oil pipeline may have been dragged by cargo ship
https://news.yahoo.com/coast-guard-california-oil-pipeline-191111477.html
- Is there anything that can't be blamed on container ships and the global supply chain?


https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/576600-how-utilities-could-offset-the-coming-winters-record-high-energy?rl=1

Dr. Dean Foreman from API Energy
- highest gasoline prices since 2014!
- highest natural gas prices since 2008!
- domestic markets are relatively well supplied but Europe and Asian markets are short
- D-E-I indicator: tracks roughly with the year on year change in industrial production. Still positive, signalling that the broader economy in US should continue to grow though there were some manufacturing indicators in U.S. that indicate industry beginning to slow.
- Will energy prices start to weigh on economic growth? Not seeing this in the D-E-I indicator but there are some concerns over this, especially with Fed policy.
- Oil prices have risen but there's no shortage. With gas, there is a shortage in Europe and Asia. Spot cargoes going for many times the average.
- Some drilling response in U.S. Adding 7-10 rigs/week. Drilling picking up in lag. Is that enough to meet EIA predictions? According to EIA, US needs to add 1.8 million bpd to hit $60-$70 per barrel.
- Cost escalation in oil industry is significant. That is going to make break-even prices increase a lot. Supply chain issues, tariffs on steel and other materials, labor shortages.
- Hard to catch up to lack of investment. In Q2 only saw about $37 billion in investment. Compare to $68 billion at same point in 2019. Only half of what we saw during Great Recession adjusted for inflation. Capital projects down $110 billion year on year.
- If you pile on policy from Biden admin saying that they want half of all US electricity to come from solar by 2030 how do you get funding for a multibillion dollar natural gas drilling project in Pennsylvania approved?
- Highest for the month of September of NGL production! Economic decision to take NGLs out of natural gas.
- Illinois has the second lowest stores on record as of last EIA report.
- US has pretty much maximized output of LNG for the terminals we have.
- 20.6 million bpd of petroleum demand in US - record high for September.
- Refined products exports lowest since May 2020: why? Some issues due to Hurricane Ida but also US trending to become net petroleum importer as opposed to exporter. Broader trend over last 6-7 months is that US is back to net importer.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Oil Price Jumps Above $80 and Natural Gas Races Higher, Turbocharged by Supply Shortages
https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-price-jumps-above-80-and-natural-gas-races-higher-turbocharged-by-supply-shortages-11633943832
- all of the oil companies are saying they aren't going to drill, prices go up, they can also make a killing trading.

Why Energy Stocks Could Get Hurt by Rising Prices
https://www.barrons.com/articles/energy-oil-natural-gas-prices-51633742601
- argument that energy prices too high could hurt the economy by derailing economic growth
- this in turn could derail energy companies themselves

India is on the brink of an energy crisis, as coal reserves hit critical lows
https://fortune.com/2021/10/08/india-is-on-the-brink-of-an-energy-crisis-as-coal-reserves-hit-critical-lows/
- Central Electric Authority says they have 3 or fewer days of coal supply

India says it has ample coal stocks for power sector
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-says-it-has-ample-coal-stocks-power-sector-2021-10-10/
- Coal Authority says there is ample coal - meaning 4 days supply

A Scary Energy Winter Is Coming. Don’t Blame the Greens.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/05/opinion/energy-climate-iran-nuclear.html
- at the very least the EU carbon credit policy is pushing up energy prices in Europe and exacerbating the situation.
- But so is the idea that need to stop investing in fossil fuel development.

Vessel's Odyssey Reflects Iran's Oil Sale Woes
https://www.energyintel.com/0000017c-59b9-dee7-a97c-5bfdcfa60000

Southwest Airlines shares tumble after mass flight cancellations, carrier weighs more cuts
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/11/southwest-airlines-shares-tumble-after-mass-flight-cancellations-.html
- could jet fuel demand be impacted by cancelled flights?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Why California is shutting down its last nuclear plant
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/02/why-is-california-closing-diablo-canyon-nuclear-plant.html
- why, if California is trying to increase clean energy while in a power crunch?
- safety concerns, but the nuclear chief says that there are no safety concerns and Diablo Canyon could safely operate for 40 years?
- consumers won't buy the nuclear power

China’s Government Secures Fuel Supplies for Winter as the Country Battles a Power Crisis Threat
https://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/47690/20211003/china-fuel-supplies-power-crisis-threat.htm

China Relaxes Coal Mine Safety Efforts on Electricity Crisis
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-relaxes-coal-mine-safety-004516612.html

Boris Johnson Plans Fossil Fuel-Free U.K. Power Grid by 2035
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-04/u-k-s-johnson-plans-fossil-fuel-free-power-grid-by-2035
- will Britain's power grid even have power unless a lot of nuclear power plants in the next years
- The U.K. will reserve a key role for nuclear power in the nation’s electricity system as a backup for renewables in a plan to phase out natural gas by 2035.
- Fossil fuels will no longer be used to generate power by the middle of the next decade as the U.K. tackles the double threat of climate change and an energy supply crunch that has sent prices spiraling to record highs. The government says the plan is “a landmark move to end Britain’s dependency on volatile fossil fuels.”
- But renewables are also quite volatile

Climate change could cost the U.S. up to 10.5 percent of its GDP by 2100, study finds
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/08/19/climate-change-could-cost-us-up-percent-its-gdp-by-study-finds/
- weather disasters may be more intense, but over time more wealth is accumulated so obviously the cost of the damage will be more. Especially, wealth is concentrated in areas more prone to weather damage, like on the beach, near fault lines, areas where wildfires happen & the beach in Florida.

Interview with Mark Rossano on China:
- check out Mark's YouTube channel (PrimaryVisionNetwork), FracSpreadCount and Private Equity Fund
- Is China really going to secure energy at all costs? Who/when said this? Said in front of shuttered coal mine (because it was unsafe). Unsafe mines were cleaned up at the beginning of the year.
- Costs? political, human, price? weighted towards political and human. Need to expedite bringing mines back. Also, context of fight with Australia - if China goes out to Australia they can resolve issue and bring in their coal.
- Will China choose power to residential areas or maintain factory output? China is actually allowing price fluctuation. But have also vowed that there won't be cuts to residential power.
- Slashed steel production, which really cuts down on power usage.
- Timing also an issue. In September China tries to run ahead of "Golden Week" - getting products ready and shipped by holiday season. But now they are on the other side of that. Typically in Oct/Nov drop in industrial throughput.
- could see more "Malaysian crude" coming into China (Actually Iranian crude)
- big buildup of crude sitting offshore in China, meanwhile teapots are cutting runs. 68% utilization rate (2018 levels now).
- State refiners have cut runs 7%. Fuel oil is at a 6 year high and only time have had more fuel oil in storage was in 2014. Trying to preserve incase need to burn fuel oil in power plants.
- China's perspective on OPEC meeting - more concerned about price than volume. Volume is there, the type of crude that Asia wants to buy has plenty. What are they waiting for? Pulling more from Iraq.
- Does China need to see a $1 cut in OSPs to really make a difference and would this seem like a slap in the face to the White House if Aramco raises OSPs to the US?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com