Energy Week

Oil is closing in on $80 as supply fears stoke prices higher
https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/brent-oil-nears-80-a-barrel-amid-supply-constraints
- what could stem the rising tide of oil prices? Covid lockdowns, Chinese economy?
- domestic travel is up, according to airlines
- will US production ever come back? perhaps more issues at play than just lack of funding - costs of materials, labor has all gone WAY up.

Europe Is Pumping Less Gas as Demand Rebounds, Leaving a Gap Russia Is Filling
https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-is-pumping-less-gas-as-demand-revives-leaving-a-gap-russia-is-filling-11632308400
- despite Europe's rhetoric about the environment, they really want to do business with Russia
- Shutting down major Dutch natural gas field next year because of earthquakes. Instead they are getting it from Russia.

Citigroup sees gas at $100/MMBtu, if winter is cold enough
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/9/23/citigroup-sees-gas-at-100mmbtu-if-winter-is-cold-enough
- If its too cold in China, what does China do? Let people freeze or power factories?

The Climate Case for Property Destruction
https://newrepublic.com/article/162247/andreas-malm-blow-up-pipeline-climate-direct-action
- argues that climate activists should destroy energy infrastructure often enough so that it is too costly for companies to rebuilt and maintain it.
- What is the end point? renewable? deindustrialization?

Investors Bet Environmental Fears Will Crunch Commodity Supply, Lifting Prices
https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-bet-environmental-fears-will-crunch-commodity-supply-lifting-prices-11632350186
- pandemic killed investing in oil AND gas

China Needs to Kick its Coal Habit at Home, Too
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-needs-to-kick-its-coal-habit-at-home-too-11632477842
- Xi says won't finance coal plants abroad (but what about at home?)

Power cuts hit homes in north-east China
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58704221

As OPEC reopens the taps, African giants losing race to pump more
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-reopens-taps-african-giants-losing-race-pump-more-2021-09-27/
- Nigeria and Angola lose a lot of oil to theft! Nigeria was in the top 5 of hot oil being tapped from pipelines. Similar to Pemex and Nigeria

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Natural-Gas Prices Surge, and Winter Is Still Months Away
https://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-prices-surge-and-winter-is-still-months-away-11631986861
- historically speaking crude oil prices actually do warrant new drilling but companies aren't.
- Why aren't companies drilling more? Lack of money? Why isn't the money interested?

Oil falls as storm-hit U.S. supply trickles back into market
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steady-us-storm-hit-supply-returns-slowly-2021-09-17/
- Will Europe be forced to turn to burning fuel oil this winter for electricity when natural gas and coal are too expensive and will that push oil prices up?
- Change in policy could dampen sentiment for movement.

Equinor to pump up gas supply for tight European market
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/equinor-to-pump-up-gas-supply-for-tight-european-market/
- Can Norway save the day for Europe? Perhaps.

Trade group wants restrictions on U.S. natural gas exports
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trade-group-wants-restrictions-us-natural-gas-exports-2021-09-17/
- Will restricting LNG exports help curb US natural gas prices?
- IECA says US natural gas prices would need to double from where they are now to spur more drilling. Chemicals, Food, Materials could become more expensive or face shortages.
- Government intervention in terms of promoting natural gas drilling.

Oil giant Shell sets sights on sustainable aviation fuel take-off
https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/oil-giant-shell-sets-sights-sustainable-aviation-fuel-take-off-2021-09-19/
- How big of a "thing" is this? Crops could be used to feed people - industrial agriculture is NOT sustainable.

China faces a potential Lehman moment. Wall Street is unfazed
https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/16/business/wall-street-evergrande-china/index.html

China’s Evergrande Moment Is Looking More LTCM Than Minsky
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-20/china-s-evergrande-moment-is-looking-more-ltcm-than-minsky

What is China going to do? Ryan's Read: China will do whatever it has to. Can't seperate this story from Taiwan.

Dr. Dean Foreman and API Monthly Statistical Report
Global natural gas issues:
- For this time of year we have never had higher prices
- Reflects Russian gas inventories are historically low, wind is underperforming & gas needed to prevent brownouts and LNG shipments being snapped up like crazy
- Global natural gas market? Not yet because still so much less being trading internationally than oil
- Rush to get cargoes available.
Domestic natural gas:
- Baker Hughes rig counts have actually gone down despite higher prices
- Should be able to drill all day and make money
- Producers in Gulf Coast have access to premium markets and should be able to export to internationally markets
- Producers in PA, etc. don't have access to global value chain
Are exports to blame for US prices?
- actually exports motivate production. Haynesville is good example. On the margin there is some and it is creating pressure. Seek to place blame, consumer anger.
- We have rolled back prices to before the shale revolution.
- Should be able to drill profitably in every major basin so what's the problem? EIA modelled a healthy drilling response and we haven't seen that. Supply chain issues, risk tolerance issues, workforce issues, policy environment, debt taken on my companies
- Pipeline capacity isn't really an issue. There are some isolated areas that have bottlenecks and there is flaring, but mostly not.
Summer oil demand:
- 23 million bpd of oil demand - higher than 2019.
- Fuels may be switched around (more gasoline and distillate than jet fuel)
- Other oils: intermediate oils naphtha and propylene, etc. historically have been 1/4 of demand, now it's over 30%. In August just under 28%.
- Drilling responsiveness isn't there. What are the odds that we will get 1.8 million bpd of production growth in US between now and end of year? Note likely, especially with how rig counts haven't been growing.
- Some price issues should recede as supply chain issues resolve but with oil and gas, it's a different issue. If the economy remains on track, we will see serious pressure on oil and gas in next year. Lack of investment, long lead time for projects outside the US.
- EIA says global projected highs for oil demand are higher than 2019. IEA has a more bearish view on fossil fuels.
- If supply can't keep up with economic growth then it could push prices up which will stifle demand.
- Numbers economically are scorching hot - so much stimulus and it has had an impact. Even if price inflation overshoots, we will still see a lot of growth.
- Global capital investment has significantly declined. Drilling activity has been muted.

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Economic Costs Accumulate as Countries Worried by Delta Variant Extend Border Closures
https://www.wsj.com/articles/economic-costs-accumulate-as-countries-worried-by-delta-variant-extend-border-closures-11631387873

Is the Delta wave over? Or has it not hit the Northeast?
Can we assume that economic activity and travel isn't going to go back down?

City in China restricts movement amid outbreak
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-city-in-china-restricts-movement-amid-outbreak/a-59157352

City closures will impact gasoline and jet fuel in China
Oil prices in the low $70s put pressure on Chinese economy

Nearly 185,000 b/d of US Gulf oil production returns as Ida recovery continues
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/091021-nearly-185000-bd-of-us-gulf-oil-production-returns-as-ida-recovery-continues

Still 50% of offshore production offline
Shell having particular difficulties getting things back online
Economic Costs Accumulate as Countries Worried by Delta Variant Extend Border Closures
https://www.wsj.com/articles/economic-costs-accumulate-as-countries-worried-by-delta-variant-extend-border-closures-11631387873

European Power Situation

Analysis: Expensive winter ahead as Europe's power prices surge
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/expensive-winter-ahead-europes-power-prices-surge-2021-09-10/

Energy Prices in Europe Hit Records After Wind Stops Blowing
https://www.wsj.com/articles/energy-prices-in-europe-hit-records-after-wind-stops-blowing-11631528258

German Power, Carbon Rise to Record on Soaring Gas Prices
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/german-power-carbon-rise-record-080615144.html

Russia is pumping a lot less natural gas to Europe all of a sudden — and it is not clear why
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/24/russia-is-pumping-less-natural-gas-to-europe-as-nord-stream-2-nears-completion.html

Charging points for electric cars will be preset to turn off for NINE HOURS a day amid fears they will cause blackouts if government hits target for phasing out petrol and diesel
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9982253/Charging-points-electric-cars-preset-turn-NINE-HOURS-day.html

- Is Gazprom deliberately putting the squeeze on the European Union to get Nord Stream II started up?
- Consumers don't have extra money to pay prices?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Connect with our guest: https://twitter.com/GasBuddyGuy

Oil steadies as Hurricane Ida weakens, OPEC+ in focus
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-hurricane-ida-pounds-us-crude-patch-louisiana-2021-08-30/

Louisiana refineries slammed by Hurricane Ida
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2248918-louisiana-refineries-slammed-by-hurricane-ida

Colonial Pipeline expects to resume service after assessing Ida’s impact
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/29/colonial-pipeline-halts-gasoline-deliveries-to-the-us-east-coast-due-to-hurricane-ida.html

- As far as hurricanes go, not as much damage to oil infrastructure and refining as we have seen in the past
- Refining issues could persist due to power outages and lack of feedstock
- Unclear when any of that can restart given the fact that Louisiana is experiencing severe power outages and many refineries may have to contend with flooding conditions which can keep them offline for quite awhile and can cause damage.
- Gasoline prices are up 2% in anticipation, although the storm comes right as summer demand for gasoline is starting to wane.
- Some good news from ExxonMobil's Baton Rouge refinery - reported no significant damage from the hurricane. But they are still shutting down units and flaring gas. Once they have access to necessary feedstocks and support from third-party utilities they expect to return to normal production.

OPEC+ faces mixed market signals after US pressure to increase oil supplies
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/082721-opec-faces-mixed-market-signals-after-us-pressure-to-increase-oil-supplies

OPEC+ could reconsider output increase, says Kuwaiti oil minister
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-could-reconsider-output-increase-says-kuwaiti-oil-minister-2021-08-29/

- Unlikely for OPEC to change its plans to increase oil production by 400,000 bpd
- Kuwait suggested this might be possible, but unlikely given that Brent is still above $70

Climate Change to Be Treated as Public-Health Issue
https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-change-to-be-treated-as-public-health-issue-11630315800
- plan to reduce GHG emissions from the healthcare system??

Interview with GasBuddyGuy Patrick DeHaan:
- tremendous recovery with gasoline demand this summer
- driving season remained resilient despite Delta variant
- demand starting to slip as driving season coming to an end
- EIA implied demand last week 9.7 million bpd, GasBuddy slightly lower 9.3 million bpd
- News about Covid cases surging hasn't impacted gasoline consumption distribution
- Power outages from Hurricane Ida are very extensive, refining down due to power outages and no RVP wavers given out by EPA. Would allow refiners to distribute fall gasoline early (before Sept 15).
- Bottlenecks due to Ida at various levels will persist for days or longer. Refineries need power, nitrogen, oxygen, etc. We could see sizable inventory draws in PADD3
- Could see crude oil inventories rising due to refineries offline.
- Colonial temporarily shut down 2 lines, could squeeze PADD1 inventories
- Gasoline from Great Lakes may go south or east to make up for losses there.
- Even before storm well formed, inbound gasoline deliveries to PADD1 seen and will continue now that Louisiana refineries offline.
- Products and blending components may be diverted to areas in the US
- Expect to see abnormal numbers in EIA data for weeks, 3 or 4 weeks but contingent on how long it takes refineries to start churning out products again.
- Will also depend on how long it takes for products to start flowing through pipelines

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Oil jumps 4% on weaker dollar after seven days of losses
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/23/oil-markets-covid-dollar.html

Crude Oil Surges; Rebounding After Torrid Week
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crude-oil-surges-rebounding-torrid-092802254.html

- Can oil really hit $80 by the end of the year?
- Last week's selloff was overdone, so oil is rebounding now.
- Plenty of reasons to see demand suffering due to coronavirus
- Sentiment is a real thing with the oil market. Perception of how coronavirus will impact demand has a real impact.

California's clean grid may lean on oil, gas to avoid summer blackouts
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/californias-clean-grid-may-lean-oil-gas-avoid-summer-blackouts-2021-08-11/
- Irony of building "temporary" natural gas plants to keep the lights on in California, which claims to have a "clean" grid
- could the governor recall impact

US nears proposal of biofuel targets for 2021-22
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2246546-us-nears-proposal-of-biofuel-targets-for-202122
- biofuel mandates could be lowered for 2021 and 2022
- is the RFS really worthwhile at this point?

Hydrogen lobbyist quits, slams oil companies’ “false claims” about blue hydrogen
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/08/ex-lobbyist-slams-blue-hydrogen-says-it-would-lock-in-fossil-fuel-dependence/
- Blue hydrogen is only less carbon intensive if carbon is captured at every step of the way, and that is unlikely.
- just because you don't see the pollution at the end result doesn't mean its not a carbon intensive process

Carbon taxes could hurt Russia more than sanctions, says oil tsar
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/carbon-taxes-could-hurt-russia-more-than-sanctions-says-oil-tsar-kommersant-2021-08-23/
- border adjustment taxes for carbon on aluminum, iron ore, pipes, electricity, cement could have major impact on Russian exports.

Nord Stream 2: Russia must not use gas pipeline as weapon, says Merkel
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-58301099
- Is the concern over Russia's threat to the EU overblown? Is Europe really afraid of Russia?
- Is it mostly a Ukrainian-Russian issue and western Europe isn't concerned?
- If the EU is confident about doing businesses with Russia to the extent that they are willing to rely on Russia for 40% of their natural gas, then why is the US afraid of Russia?

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Oil prices drop amid faltering demand outlook in China
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/16/oil-markets-demand-outlook-in-china-covid.html
- Is it Delta variant? Is is lockdowns? Is it crackdowns on independent refiners?
- Are there larger economic forces at play in Chinese demand?
- Can China put pressure on OPEC to provide what they want?

OPEC+ sees no need to speed up oil cuts easing despite U.S. calls
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-sees-no-need-speed-up-oil-cuts-easing-despite-us-calls-sources-2021-08-16/
- Doesn't cost Biden any political capital to call for lower oil prices
- No surprise that OPEC said no
- OPEC is already increasing production

China Has Thousands of Hydropower Projects It Doesn't Want
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/china-has-thousands-of-hydropower-projects-it-doesnt-want
- government planning is not as great as people make it out to be
- going to have to fix these dams
- China can pull off a lot of amazing projects but also does a lot of really idiotic stuff

Modi says India will soon unveil $1.35 trln infrastructure plan
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-modi-says-135-trillion-infrastructure-plan-be-unveiled-soon-2021-08-15/
- infrastructure spending plan will increase oil demand
- have to generate economic growth after killing medium and small businesses

Rosneft to chase production growth
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2244244-rosneft-to-chase-production-growth
- future is still oil for Russia
- Rosneft is expanding its oil production capacity

Dr. Dean Foreman on the Monthly Statistical Report
- Demand is back, and so is the economy! Summer travel and pent up demand for travel
- Comparing summer demand to November 2019 demand is still a little off, but If compare July 2021 to July 2019 only off a little bit.
- Gasoline demand is strong into August
- Lowest crude oil inventories since December 2019. Drawn down 16% year on year. A little under 7% of lowest point of last 5 years.
- Refinery utilization is very strong (91%). ONly 2019 did we average higher. Exports are down. Still a net exporter for refined products, though more crude oil imports.
- Distillate economic indicator - overheating economy and facing inflationary pressures. This is correlated with Univ Michigan consumer sentiment survey,
- Petrochemicals have been the strongest area of sustained growth for US oil. Continuing need for plastics. Record demand in July. 5.6 million bpd consumed.
- Creeping up of oil directed rigs this year. Have generally been range bound in production in US and only just broke out of that range for June and July - 11.3 million bpd. Good sign for where crude oil production might go, but will take awhile. Natural gas is another story. 6 month future prices are $4/million btu and would indicate more natural gas drilling activity. Why aren't we seeing this? Capital constraints and people constraints.
- If you are in Appalachia and want to drill you are finding yourself constrained by a variety of factors including no way to export it and pipeline constraints bringing it to domestic markets.
- There is a real cost to being a net importer again.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

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Oil falls in biggest weekly decline in months on demand worries
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-oil-set-biggest-weekly-loss-since-oct-delta-variant-fans-demand-worries-2021-08-06/
- Is the $80 oil call under threat?
- Oil company stocks are holing pretty steady, despite good earnings and falling oil
- Is it Delta? What IS Delta, and why do we need to know?

Oil majors tread cautiously in Permian shale
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2242395-oil-majors-tread-cautiously-in-permian-shale
- pioneer not expecting to do any major acquisitions
- How much is ESG, Covid, fear of OPEC, paying down debt, Biden admin fear, fear of uncertainty

Utilities Eye Mini Nuclear Reactors as Climate Concerns Grow
https://www.wsj.com/articles/utilities-eye-mini-nuclear-reactors-as-climate-concerns-grow-11627905600
- 345 megawatt reactor will cost $1 billion, $50 to $60 range per megawatt-hour

Climate chief warns of ‘catastrophe’ and then backs oil and coal plans
https://metro.co.uk/2021/08/08/climate-chief-warns-of-catastrophe-and-then-backs-oil-and-coal-plans-15058669/

Aramco posts nearly 300% leap in second-quarter profit on global demand recovery
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/08/saudi-aramco-posts-near-300percent-leap-in-q2-profit-on-global-demand-recovery.html

More Oil Shipped as Dakota Access Pipeline Expansion Starts
https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2021-08-06/more-oil-shipped-as-dakota-access-pipeline-expansion-starts
- pipeline expansion is going through, rate of oil increasing

Infrastructure Bill Has Big Wins for Oil, Climate Advocates Say
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-06/biden-s-agenda-is-tainted-by-oil-interests-say-climate-advocates
- big oil wins $10 billion for carbon capture and LNG plant in Alaska wins loan guarantees, $8 billion for hydrogen but not necessarily green and blue
- $21.5 billion to create an Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations!

'This is no way to make policy': Cryptocurrency advocates express frustration with bipartisan infrastructure language
https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/07/politics/cryptocurrency-infrastructure-bill/index.html
- Provision will expand number of cryptocurrency users who would have report filings to the IRS

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-07-29/biden-trade-policy-can-advance-climate-goals-with-infrastructure

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

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On this episode of the Energy Week Podcast, Ryan Ray and Ellen Wald talk about Chinese demand, Q2 earnings, and the cost of solar.


Oil prices slide on worries over China economy and higher crude output
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/02/oil-markets-china-economy-opec.html
- highest gasoline consumption
- broke record for TSA screenings showing Americans are on the move
- Chinese economy slowing based on higher raw material costs, flooding issues and other
- Can we expect China to keep having double digit growth

Vitol's Muller expects China to release 25-30 mil bbls from strategic oil reserves in Q4
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/080121-vitols-muller-expects-china-to-release-25-30-mil-bbls-from-strategic-oil-reserves-in-q4
- China’s way of saying oil prices are too high for them
- will it help cool off oil prices?
- How long can China play the SPR game?

Exxon, Chevron Beat Q2 Forecasts But Contrast On Paying Shareholders More
https://www.investors.com/news/exxon-stock-chevron-stock-exxon-earnings-chevron-earnings-q2-2021/
- both companies beat expectations but share prices fell
- when will they put money into capex?

Behind the Rise of U.S. Solar Power, a Mountain of Chinese Coal
https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-the-rise-of-u-s-solar-power-a-mountain-of-chinese-coal-11627734770
- People want to buy the cheaper solar panels even if they are produced using lots of coal fired energy

U.S. Blames Iran for Drone Attack on Israeli-Linked Tanker
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-blames-iran-for-drone-attack-on-israeli-linked-tanker-11627848609

Rising gasoline prices signal trouble for climate change action
https://www.axios.com/gas-prices-climate-change-325881b1-fa78-41c9-8cb3-1d56d0ed9328.html
- higher prices mean people don’t want to pay for renewables, EVs

‘Greenflation’ threatens to derail climate change action
https://www.ft.com/content/49c19d8f-c3c3-4450-b869-50c7126076ee
- All of the products we need to combat climate change like copper and aluminum are getting too expensive because demand for producing them is up.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-07-29/biden-trade-policy-can-advance-climate-goals-with-infrastructure

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Oil falls as coronavirus, slower China imports hit demand
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-little-changed-coronavirus-floods-threaten-demand-2021-07-26/
- how much impact will floods in China actually have on demand?
- and what about the teapots? their quotes are down in H2

Chinese oil companies fill void in Iraq
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/07/chinese-oil-companies-fill-void-iraq
- But do Chinese companies provide the quality needed? In Iran, largely unsatisfied. Will Iraq suffer similar issues?

EV Batteries: The Next Victim of High Commodity Prices?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ev-batteries-the-next-victim-of-high-commodity-prices-11626950276
- China controls 40% of supply chain when it comes to components of EV battery manufacturing.

Big Oil Companies Push Hydrogen as Green Alternative, but Obstacles Remain
https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-oil-companies-push-hydrogen-as-green-alternative-but-obstacles-remain-11627297201
- it's expensive and really hard to do with alternative or renewable energy.

US rethinks sanctions approach
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2237748-us-rethinks-sanctions-approach
- reviewing sanctions policy is probably a good idea since they haven't achieved anything, and what were they designed to achieve anyway?

U.S. weighs crackdown on China's import of Iranian oil
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-weighs-crackdown-chinas-import-iranian-oil-2021-07-23/
- Would this really do much to pressure Iran anyway?

Opec+ issues August, September quotas
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2237794-opec-issues-august-september-quotas
- gasoline demand up last week, but have we reached the limit of how much gasoline demand we will see this year?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Dr. Dean Foreman and June MSR

https://www.api.org/products-and-services/statistics/apis-economic-industry-outlook

- validating what we’ve seen
- Urban driving activity on the gasoline side + tourism
- Jet fuel demand is up, June is the strongest month so far. 4th straight month of increase for jet fuel. 8% increase from May. Still 1/5 below where it was in 2019. International travel hasn’t picked up yet.
- petrochemicals: medical plastics and packing plastics demand continuing from last year. double digit gains from last year.
- Total demand for distillates has basically peaked, but on growth on a year to year basis its showing strong economic activity and industrial growth. Strong sign of growth.
- Refining picking up, inventories there, ready to be used. Crude oil inventories are edging down. Indication that supply for crude oil isn’t keeping up with demand. We are importing more of what we need. We have an issue looking out over next year. When we consider demand growth with drilling activity even with strong productivity at well level, we need to see more drilling activity than we’ve been seeing to keep up.
- Inventories are at the bottom of the 5 year band. Relatively low. But the upper end of the band was expanded with major inventory builds in 2020.
- Permian doesn’t have pipeline constraints but other basins have pipeline constraints so there may be hesitancy to invest in more production. But they can all be profitable at recent prices.
- Pickup in crude oil exports from US in June. Pull from international demand. Exports will soon be blamed for lifting prices in the US.
- Inflation: Federal reserve needs to look harder at oil and gas and inflation, especially impact on consumers. EIA has assumed that domestic drilling would be and will be stronger than it has been.
- Natural gas outlook: drilling activity low, spot prices for natural gas high, futures curve, would seen like its economic to do dedicated natural gas drilling. There is some pick up in Ohio and Pennsylvania drilling but lack of associated natural gas from fracking.
www.api.org


Building Solar Farms May Not Build the Middle Class
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/16/business/economy/green-energy-jobs-economy.html
- operating solar and wind plants aren’t the same as oil, gas and nuclear plants and don’t require the same type of skilled workers or as many so when plants shut down, workers are losing jobs

European aircraft movements rising: Eurocontrol
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2235622-european-aircraft-movements-rising-eurocontrol
- flights are up to 23,000 compared to 36,000 on the same day in 2019.

Emissions could hit new record by 2023 without more spending on clean energy
https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/renewables/less-than-15-of-covid-19-recovery-spending-went-to-green-energy
- even with more spending on clean energy emissions will rise

Oil firms after slide but COVID-19 and supply concerns remain
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-after-rout-rising-covid-19-cases-opec-supply-deal-2021-07-20/

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