Energy Week

Energy Week

By Ryan RayNews
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Energy Week episodes

  • 192 - Russian oil production is down and India is buying it at a discount | Dr. Dean Foreman API
    Russia is pumping nearly 10% less oil than before it invaded Ukraine, satellite imagery suggests
    https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-pumping-less-oil-since-ukraine-war-began-satellite-data-2022-4
    - Russian oil production
    - China planning to cut refinery runs significantly due to lower demand (lockdowns) - could this bring global prices down?
    - Will Russia have to continue to cut production if China doesn't buy and it has no more storage capacity?
    - could China be locking down in order to get oil prices to drop for their economy?

    Putin Sets Energy Goals to Reflect New Reality
    https://www.energyintel.com/00000180-4396-d58f-a7cd-ebf7eb490000

    Making Sense of India’s Newfound Love for Russian Oil
    https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/making-sense-of-indias-newfound-love-for-russian-oil
    - India has always been going the "Third Way"
    - It has always been friendly to Russia/USSR AND the west in a bipolar world.
    - India can't be expected to pay a premium for fuel because of their economy, if it's available for a discount.

    Abu Dhabi crude to head to Europe, replace Russian oil
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/frances-totalenergies-ship-abu-dhabi-crude-europe-rare-move-sources-2022-04-25/
    - predictable but will these new patterns last and for how long?
    - How will american producers react? Will they try to lock in new international customers?

    A Persian Gulf Stock Boom Draws Foreign Investors
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-persian-gulf-stock-boom-draws-foreign-investors-11650884401

    Dean Foreman
    - February was the highest demand for any single month going back to August 2005
    - March demand was down but still relatively strong
    - Supply needs to step up!
    - Massive pull for crude oil and refined products out of the United States because international prices higher than domestic prices.
    - Rigs in the 500s now as opposed to pre-Covid rigs in the 800s
    - Production down from December - down by 100,000 bpd until March. Back up in March and in April 100,000 bpd more.
    - March 2022 vs. March 2019, global oil drilling down 22%, down 29% in US
    - productively of oil producers in US is backsliding
    - cost escalation
    - spending on drilling went up by 1/3 between quarters but doesn't necessarily contribute to higher productivity.
    - DUCs - 1 in 3 in US last year. This year more like 1 in 5. Industry isn't relying on DUCs to same extent as last year. Means need more production to sustain current production. Need more investment and more drilling.
    - Prices redetermine costs.
    - trucking markets MAY HAVE reached a pause
    - jet fuel is up
    - more urban commuting but motor gasoline still back to usual but not higher than 2019 levels
    - intermediate products demand has pulled back in March. Not a trend but could be.
    - Is petroleum demand normalizing as economy returns to "normal"?
    - SPR release: will it help with prices since we aren't seeing a supply dislocation?
    - Dr. Foreman says that if they'd just released heavy crude it would have had more of an impact on prices in the US than light crude releases do. 700,000 barrels of the SPr release went to exports. Not all of it, but a significant amount.
    - SPR inventories at their lowest point since 2002. If this continues, we will have lowest SPR reserves since 1984

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
    56 min
  • 191 - Will the Saudis save the day?
    Scoop: Biden advisers weigh Saudi Arabia trip for more oil
    https://www.axios.com/biden-saudi-trip-oil-b7a91070-8045-4155-9120-a35d59fd7603.html
    - Is there any chance that Saudi Arabia will go for this?
    - Saudi Arabia isn't likely to blow up the OPEC+ deal for Biden

    U.S. Officials Meet With Regime in Venezuela, to Discuss Oil Exports to Replace Russia’s
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-officials-meet-with-regime-in-venezuela-to-discuss-oil-exports-to-replace-russias-11646591752
    - Can Venezuela even produce more?
    - What is the goal here for the US? To isolate Venezuela from Russia? TO replace Russian barrels with Venezuelan barrels?

    ESG May Be an Antitrust Violation
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/esg-may-be-an-antitrust-violation-climate-activism-energy-prices-401k-retirement-investment-political-agenda-coordinated-influence-11646594807
    - Does he mean ESG or Climate Activism?
    - Is joining a Climate Action group the same as collusion?

    The Surge in Gas Prices Isn’t Slowing Down
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-surge-in-gas-prices-isnt-slowing-down-11646627663
    - In the U.S., the ability to refine gasoline declined sharply during the pandemic-driven economic slowdown. The market has lost about one million barrels of daily gasoline-refining capacity since early 2020, when the U.S. was producing about 19 million barrels of gasoline a day.

    Brazil considers fuel subsidies as global oil prices soar, newspaper says
    https://www.reuters.com/article/brazil-energy-fuel/brazil-considers-fuel-subsidies-as-global-oil-prices-soar-newspaper-says-idUSL2N2VA0R2

    Oil Jumps Near $125 as Chance of Russian Ban Spurs Crisis Fears
    https://www.yahoo.com/now/brent-oil-soars-above-135-230509159.html

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
    39 min
  • 190 - Russia invades Ukraine | Russell Gold on the Texas Railroad Commissioner election
    EU energy ministers to discuss plans for supply shocks from Ukraine crisis
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-energy-ministers-discuss-plans-supply-shocks-ukraine-crisis-2022-02-27/

    Finnish refiner Neste swaps Russian crude for North Sea oil
    https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-neste/finnish-refiner-neste-swaps-russian-crude-for-north-sea-oil-idUSL8N2V35JN

    India's IOC no longer accepts Russian, Kazakh crude on FOB basis
    https://www.reuters.com/article/indian-oil-corpn-oil-russia/update-1-indias-ioc-no-longer-accepts-russian-kazakh-crude-on-fob-basis-document-source-idUSL1N2V31FA

    - Why are firms dropping Russian oil? Is it moral reasons or financial?
    - India’s top refiner Indian Oil Corp will no longer accept cargoes of Russian crude oil and Kazakh CPC Blend cargoes on a free-on-board (FOB) basis due to insurance risk
    - Finland’s Neste has replaced most of its Russian crude oil purchases with other crudes such as North Sea oil due to crisis in Ukraine
    - How long will the fallout from this last?

    Saudi crown prince says kingdom still committed to OPEC+ oil agreement with Russia
    https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/022722-saudi-crown-prince-says-kingdom-still-committed-to-opec-oil-agreement-with-russia
    - OPEC isn't likely to change course, though you never know
    - even when Iran and Iraq were at war, they both stayed in OPEC

    Pressure grows on US, EU to target Russian energy exports as sanctions escalate
    https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/022722-pressure-grows-on-us-eu-to-target-russian-energy-exports-as-sanctions-escalate

    Interview with Russell Gold - Texas Monthly
    @RussellGold
    The Boom
    Superpower
    https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/railroad-commission-sarah-stogner-wayne-christian/

    - Republican primary for commissioner had gone off the rails
    - Winner of the republican primary tomorrow will most likely winning in October, though could still have a runoff. There is a Democrat running unopposed.
    - Incumbent: Wayne Christian. single term. mostly known for not pledging the knee to extremists who want to halt the production of oil and gas. former Tea Party Member. In 1970s he was a member of a Grammy nominated Gospel group.
    - Is flaring really an issue? Not getting any real traction. Big issue is the blackout.
    - Dawayne Tipton: "It is bullcrap that we are a year in and there is no major progress on weatherization." Most normal of the challengers. Roughneck.
    - Tom Slocum Jr.: engineer. Showed off his gun collection on tiktok. Gold plated rifle.
    - Marvin “Sarge” Summers: died in a car accident while on campaign trail.
    - Sarah Stogner: lawyer involved in oil field damage to a landowner's property. joined because didn't think Texas is doing enough to protect landowners. "She rides a pump jack while wearing only a hat, underwear, and pasties."

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
    1 hr
  • 189 - Russia's knocking on the door | Dr. Dean Foreman with the API
    Russia/Ukraine - will Russia invade?
    - What does Russia want? Expansion = national security
    - Will Ukraine allow Eastern Ukraine to separate?

    Crude oil futures slip after opening surge as risk appetite wanes
    https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/petrochemicals/022122-crude-oil-futures-slip-after-opening-surge-as-risk-appetite-wanes
    - What's the risk premium on oil? $10? $7 per barrel
    - Russia prepared to reorient oil and gas exports to China - won't be instantaneous but Russia better prepared to reorient than US and Europe
    - What would the sanctions be? no clue because US and Europe still obfuscating

    Arab oil producers say OPEC+ should stick to current output agreement
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/arab-oil-producers-say-opec-should-stick-current-output-agreement-2022-02-20/
    -
    Mazroui: "We are all hoping for the de-escalation... I think our plan has been working and I don't believe that the market is hugely under-supplied currently. It's the other factors that are outside our hands which are impacting the market." What does a market where we aren't hugely undersupplied look like?

    3 states with shuttered nuclear plants see emissions rise
    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/17/3-states-with-shuttered-nuclear-plants-see-emissions-rise-00009034
    - The rise in emissions follows the closure of three nuclear facilities in Massachusetts, New York and Pennsylvania since 2019

    U.N. pact may restrict plastic production. Big Oil aims to stop it
    https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/un-pact-may-restrict-plastic-production-big-oil-aims-stop-it-2022-02-18/

    Big banks fund new oil and gas despite net zero pledges
    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60366054

    https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/595002-five-ways-that-biden-could-help-reduce-spiking-consumer-costs-at?rl=1

    API With the Monthly Statistical Report for January
    - API | MSR: Record Demand, Flat Production, U.S. Remains Petroleum Net Importer
    - Total US petroleum demand highest in January - with petrochemicals for plastics in VERY high demand.
    - Can this trend continue or will it normalize? Investments made on belief that this will endure.
    - How important is it? 7 million bpd. Really solid even if took out demand for petrochemicals
    - DEI: technically we are still in a declared recession but DEI gives indications of industrial production. Positive slowing at diminishing rate of growth
    - Shows industrial side of US economy continuing to do quite well.
    - Relative dearth of domestic crude oil production appears to have eroded the feedstock advantage of many U.S. refiners, which in turn reinforced lower refinery throughput and capacity utilization rates.
    - Average of 6 rigs added per week for 1st 6 weeks of year but compared to 2019, oil rigs are still down 40%. Going to take awhile to catch up
    - Will refiners need to import? US is net importer in January. A little over $3/barrel difference between US crude production and imports. That covers the cost of importing. Refining advantage has eroded.
    - Price advantage in terms of operations and feedstock has eroded and is showing.
    - Big drop in refined product exports in December. EIA showing global oil demand back above 2019 levels but demand for US exports down 2 million bpd.
    - Impact on NGLs, propane, etc. ethane has been between 30 and 40 cents/gallon. Its up but not too much. Propane has doubled from 60 cents to $1.20/gallon. US petchems rely on propane to make products. Asian producers use naptha to make ethylene. US producers use ethane or propane to make ethylene. NGL extraction at record high (5 million bpd) in January.
    - propane use has quietly expanded with US energy revolution
    - investment update coming next month
    - basically still have a moratorium on drilling. FERC, etc. not authorized to issue new LNG permits WHILE we are trying to assure allies in Europe that we can send them natural gas. could generate investment to get it going to help Europe but it's not moving anywhere.

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
    59 min
  • 188 - Christine L. Williams Gaslighted: How the Oil and Gas Industry Shortchanges Women Scientists
    Russia, China ink new energy deals amid rising Ukraine tensions
    https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/020422-russia-china-ink-new-energy-deals-amid-rising-ukraine-tensions
    - Russia is already looking more towards the East
    - Is this a diversion of the current or in addition too?
    - Russia not all that concerned about finding markets for its oil

    Should Europe use more long term LNG contracts?
    https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-lng-contracts/explainer-should-europe-use-more-long-term-lng-contracts-idUSKBN2KC1DB
    - EU discouraged long-term LNG contracts because they didn't want consumers locked in to certain providers and think it inhibits free flows of gas. But also they don't want consumers to be locked into fossil fuels contracts.

    Oil falls on positive signals from U.S.-Iran talks
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-after-signs-progress-us-iran-nuclear-talks-2022-02-07/

    Iran deal with oil sanctions relief not a sure bet despite latest US waiver: analysts
    https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/020722-iran-deal-with-oil-sanctions-relief-not-a-sure-bet-despite-latest-us-waiver-analysts

    Interview with Christine Williams and Gaslighted: How the Oil and Gas Industry Shortchanges Women Scientists

    - most research done on women scientists leaving oil and gas industry was about people reflecting on why they left the industry. This study follows them in real time.
    - targeting women for layoffs happens in all fields but especially acute in oil because of boom and bust
    - changing culture of layoffs or change biases of managers that work against women scientists?
    - mothers are particularly targeted by biased views. "motherhood penalty." Of women who lost jobs, so many were mothers of young children. Why are mothers targeted? Meanwhile fathers are protected from layoffs.
    - female entrepreneurship is the silver lining
    - culture of layoffs breeds "culture of yes men" in industry so its particularly acute in oil industry. Culture of layoffs breeds culture of conformity.

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
    59 min
  • 187 - Amid rising prices US courts block offshore lease
    Court blocks latest GoM offshore lease sale, wants more greenhouse gas calculations
    https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/government/article/14232851/court-blocks-latest-gom-offshore-lease-sale-wants-more-greenhouse-gas-calculations
    - must run additional calculations on emissions contribution to global climate change
    - “failed to include a calculation of potential impacts on global fossil fuel consumption if the lease sale were not held at all.”

    Before Ukraine Standoff, U.S. Pitched Its ‘Freedom Gas’ to Europe and Found Few Takers
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/before-ukraine-standoff-u-s-pitched-its-freedom-gas-to-europe-and-found-few-takers-11643538604?mod=djem_EnergyJournal
    - Poland did sign contract with US LNG providers
    - wouldn’t Russia want to find other buyers for its oil if it plans to invade Ukraine and its oil will be sanctioned?
    - Russia isn’t concerned about American retaliation?

    Biden to meet Qatar leader as Europe energy crisis looms
    https://apnews.com/article/afghanistan-russia-ukraine-coronavirus-pandemic-joe-biden-business-dfff33604f12df2665d060abb3ff8705
    - What does the US expect Qatar to do? Most of its supply is contracted to Asia and Asia isn’t likely to resell to Europe.

    Explainer: Why U.S. natural gas prices spiked by a record 70% on Thursday
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/why-us-natural-gas-prices-spiked-by-record-70-thursday-2022-01-28/
    - Short seller got caught on last day of contract, low volume

    Oil Prices Could Reach $100 This Year. It’s Bad for Oil Producers, Too.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/oil-prices-could-reach-100-this-year-its-bad-for-oil-producers-too-51643275801
    - question for OPEC: Does $90 Brent incentivize more drilling than $75 Brent?
    - Given where inventories are, is $90 Brent too high?

    Oil forward curves signal tight market, supporting price rally
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-forward-curves-signal-tight-market-supporting-price-rally-2022-01-31/

    EIA forecasts OPEC production will grow in 2022 despite recent production outages in Libya
    https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51078

    Ukraine, Russia conflict could hit US steel industry
    https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2295822-ukraine-russia-conflict-could-hit-us-steel-industry
    - suppliers send from Black Sea, which could be cut off if there is military activity
    - could source from Canada

    OPEC oil output rises by 210,000 bpd in January, survey shows
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-oil-output-rises-by-210000-bpd-january-survey-shows-2022-01-31/

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
    42 min
  • 186 - Will the Russia & Ukraine conflict send prices soaring?
    Saudi Arabia expands share in China oil market, Russia lags
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/saudi-arabia-expands-share-china-oil-market-russia-lags-2022-01-20/

    Oil could jump to $150 a barrel this quarter on the back of an 'adverse supply shock' from Russia-Ukraine tensions, JPMorgan says
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-russia-ukraine-tensions-150-per-barrel-supply-2022-1
    - would need to get 2.3 million bpd of oil off the market to see this jump in Q1
    - Is this possible if US and allies impose sanctions?
    - Will Russia invade Ukraine? Key is

    Oil slumps as Russia-Ukraine tensions, Middle East conflict unsettle traders
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-edges-lower-as-traders-monitor-russia-ukraine-tensions-middle-east-11643031454

    Russian crude exports to US highlight risks to Ukraine talks for Biden
    https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/012122-russian-crude-exports-to-us-highlight-risks-to-ukraine-talks-for-biden
    - US imported average of over 700,000 bpd from Russia between Jan and Oct 2021

    How a Russian-Ukraine conflict might hit global markets
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/how-russian-ukraine-conflict-might-hit-global-markets-2022-01-21/

    US putting together 'global' strategy to increase gas production if Russia invades Ukraine, officials say
    https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/23/politics/us-gas-production-strategy-russia-ukraine-invasion/index.html
    - This isn't very much considering what the US has done in the past

    Germany’s Reliance on Russian Gas Limits Europe’s Options in Ukraine Crisis
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/germanys-reliance-on-russian-gas-limits-europes-options-in-ukraine-crisis-11642939203
    - Europeans are dependent on Russian gas
    - Germany has different opinion of "incursion" and "response" than others
    - Want to do business with Russia

    European oil refineries exposed as fears of Russia invading Ukraine grow
    https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/012122-european-oil-refineries-exposed-as-fears-of-russia-invading-ukraine-grow

    Don’t believe Putin’s propaganda. Sanctions are hurting Russia.
    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/dont-believe-putins-propaganda-sanctions-are-hurting-russia/

    - If the US bans Russia from the SWIFT system would Russia move to using bitcoin or other crypto-currencies?
    - Will it be over in Q1? - Ryan and Ellen think yes!

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
    46 min
  • 185 - As oil prices rise, China looks at a SPR release | Dr. Dean Foreman with the API
    Two Anne Arundel power plants announce plans to transition from coal to oil, get green light from Maryland Public Service Commission
    https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/environment/bs-md-brand-shores-ha-wagner-coal-to-oil-psc-approval-20220113-zdwx3gcwjvbtzjn3blqdhyqux4-story.html
    - what benefit will switching from coal to oil provide? power plant says it will only operate at 8% of capacity to emit less emissions because oil costs more

    Oil's bull run rolls on despite possible China reserves release
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-eases-investors-eye-us-oil-release-china-demand-concerns-2022-01-14/
    - people traveling ahead of Lunar New Year incase of lockdowns
    - won't have much of an impact on prices, at least outside of China
    - What's going on with inflation in China? is it an issue?

    China's 2021 oil refinery output rises 4.3% to record on strong demand
    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-2021-oil-refinery-output-rises-43-record-strong-fuel-demand-2022-01-17/

    U.S. talks to energy firms on EU gas supply in case of Russia-Ukraine conflict
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-us-talks-energy-firms-over-eu-gas-supply-case-russia-ukraine-conflict-2022-01-15/
    - companies say that there isn't oil to spare
    - Russia supplies 1/3 of natural gas to Europe

    Europe’s Governments Face a Reckoning as Energy Prices Surge
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/europe-governments-face-reckoning-energy-050012699.html
    - energy prices dropped 10% on news of more LNG cargoes, slightly higher temps

    Special Guest Dr. R Dean Foreman on Dec 2021 MSR
    - Demand strength has been resilient - turned up by Omicron. More driving, less flying, higher diesel, more intermediate petrochemicals needed for medical plastics
    - IEA shows 101 million bpd demand in December 2021
    - Continued global very strong demand growth
    - strongest distillate demand since 2014 driven by trucking
    - Lower exports of refined petroleum products in December - seeing level of refining activity has ratcheted up but still lowest throughput. We are now importing more and the difference between WTI and Brent is lower. Dearth of domestic production. Such a minimal difference has reduced margins and made US refining less desirable abroad.
    - We are seeing both a drop in refining activity relative to where it would have been in 2019. Also exports are down. Getting a double whammy hit. Feedstock isn't cheap anymore.
    - Inventories exclude SPR tracking. We are using SPR to politically manage prices. But if economy globally stays on track and supply can't keep up, may actually need SPR reserves to alleviate shortages
    - Crude oil inventories below 5 year average
    - Market needs barrels to make ends meet. Investment is needed in new oil production.
    - If you take apart EIA Short Term Energy Outlook - last year EIA was showing 5 million bpd demand rebound but less production rebound. This year think we will see 3.5 million bpd demand rebound but MORE production to come from US. But can't see with US drilling activity can't see how we can get to 1.2 million bpd of growth as an average. We will need to add barrels every week to get to what EIA thinks we will be doing.
    - The DUCs aren't completely gone but are cut in half at least in Permian. Half of completions in Bakken were DUCs last year. But even with more DUCs we will need more production growth.
    - Refiners have adapted to lower jet fuel demand. They can change the mix if needed. But if jet fuel demand comes back can the market accommodate it?
    - Jet fuel had been strengthening and then collapsed in December
    - Urban gasoline deliveries down but rural gasoline deliveries up
    - Economy in US and Europe, despite all the headwinds, is strong. Need to make sure things remain affordable for consumers.

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
    58 min
  • 184 - Recapping what's happen over the past few weeks and Kunal Patel with Dallas Fed
    How Institutional Investors See the Future of Oil and Gas
    https://www.bcg.com/publications/2022/how-investors-see-future-of-oil-gas
    - 70% of institutional investors think oil prices will stay above $60 per barrel through 2024
    - Want more clarity on firms' energy transition plans
    - Nearly 2/3 of institutional investors believe peak oil demand will happen by 2030 (really?! With emerging markets this cannot possibly be the case)

    Hochul calls for ban on natural gas in new buildings
    https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/588584-hochul-calls-for-ban-on-natural-gas-in-new-buildings
    - wants 2 million electrified homes by the end of the decade with at least 800,000 of those homes for low and middle-income residents

    Kazakhstan Unrest Pushes Up Uranium and Oil Prices
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/kazakhstan-unrest-pushes-up-uranium-and-oil-prices-11641497655
    - produce 40% of the uranium output that is sold to utilities in US and other Western countries and China
    - Some slowdown in oil output but seems to be resolved

    Biden to ramp up regulatory push on climate
    https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2290155-biden-to-ramp-up-regulatory-push-on-climate
    Dallas Fed Energy Survey
    interview with Kunal Patel, Research Department, Senior Business Economist, 11th district (Texas and New Mexico)
    https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2021/2104#tab-report

    - Activity in the oil and base continues to expand, particularly the upstream sector
    - Cost pressures are a big deal, cost to operate/run leases
    - Employment continues to expand but not as robust as from 2010-2014
    Q3 survey asked about hiring - 2/3 of firms said they are having trouble because of lack of applicants. Other reason was that potential applicants looking for higher pay.
    - Outlook continues to improve
    - Uncertainties continue as well - regulatory a big piece of it. Covid 19, getting additional capital,
    - Oil and gas execs expect price to end up at $75 per barrel
    - More wells being developed on pads, larger pads, fewer rigs needed. More wells/rig being completed.
    - OPEC NOT cited as a reason for uncertainty anymore. Perhaps feeling more confident about OPEC
    - Large firms listed #1 priority as pay down debt (responsible for 80% of production) Small firms (under 10,000 bpd) #1 priority to increase production.

    Q1 Survey release will be March 23, 2022
    - what breakeven price do E&P firms need.
    Oil Price And Production Insights For 2022 From Dallas Fed Energy Survey
    https://www.investing.com/analysis/3-oil-price-and-production-insights-for-2022-from-dallas-fed-energy-survey-200613820

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
    51 min
  • 183 - Can the EU escape their energy crisis?
    US shale producers face spending hikes
    https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2284916-us-shale-producers-face-spending-hikes
    - some mixed messaging in terms of costs of production. some are saying that improvements in efficiency offset increasing costs
    - DUCs being finished means that costs are going up, also salaries and cost of material
    - public companies only reinvested 46% last Q, but private companies spent much much more. Private sector firms account for 2/3 drilling

    Europe’s rollercoaster energy market is now at the mercy of weather
    https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/europe-s-rollercoaster-energy-market-is-now-at-the-mercy-of-weather-20211220-p59j3d
    - How will energy crisis in Europe and potential shut down of industrial plants impact Europe's GDP?
    - Can it be seperated from Covid policies?

    Russian gas exports to Europe via Yamal pipeline fall again
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-gas-exports-europe-via-yamal-up-after-saturday-drop-2021-12-19/

    EU leaders agree on new sanctions with U.S. if Russia invades Ukraine
    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/eu-leaders-consider-new-sanctions-against-russian-surprises-2021-12-16/
    - Would cutting Russia off from the SWIFT network make it impossible for Europeans to pay for Russian natural gas, etc.
    - biggest geopolitical energy issue through the end of 2021 and into 2021

    China's largest LNG importer to buy supplies from US developer Venture Global
    https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/lng/122121-chinas-largest-lng-importer-to-buy-supplies-from-us-developer-venture-global
    - Chinese companies signed nearly half of the supply deals - 45% - thisyear
    - China top buyer of US LNG in 2021

    China’s energy transition: Walking a thin line between decarbonization and disruption
    https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/blogs/energy-transition/121721-china-energy-transition-decarbonization
    - closing coal mines was actually due to safety, not environment

    Electric vehicle stocks tumble after Manchin rejects Biden’s climate and social plan
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/20/electric-vehicle-stocks-tumble-as-bidens-climate-and-social-plan-flops.html

    Battery Storage Soars on U.S. Electric Grid
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/battery-storage-soars-on-u-s-electric-grid-11640082783
    -1 gigawatt is roughly enough to power 350,000 homes for a handful of hours. US is on pace to add six gigawatts this year and another nine gigawatts in 2022.
    - California is driving much of the U.S. battery market’s expansion. It is racing to secure power to make up for the impending closure of several gas-fired power plants as well as a nuclear facility that provides nearly 10% of the electricity generated in the state.

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    42 min

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Ellen Wald and Ryan Ray discuss the week's events in energy, and what it all means to you.