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EP 157: Euro Pressure, Pine Pivots & A Flattening Curve
This week, we welcome Thomas Mende back to break down what’s really happening in the lumber market.
Eastern Spruce is showing selective discounts (especially 16’s), Southern Pine had midweek block buying, and Western low-grade is tight while higher grades sit. Are we finally near equilibrium?
Thomas walks through European production declines, rising log costs, and why tariffs alone don’t drive shipments — economics do. Canadian shipments are down sharply year over year, and when you combine that with slightly softer housing starts, supply and demand may be closer than most think.
We also dig into the flattening futures curve, what that means for hedgers, whether Southern Pine mills are actually making money, and why a flat market might cause the most pain.
If you trade lumber, build with it, or hedge it — this one matters.
Timestamps
Advertiser:
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Product
www.fastmarkets.com
Guest: Thomas Mende
https://www.binderholz.com/
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: [email protected]
Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected]
Matt Beymer: [email protected]
Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]
View all episodes
By Ashley Boeckholt
5
1515 ratings
This week, we welcome Thomas Mende back to break down what’s really happening in the lumber market.
Eastern Spruce is showing selective discounts (especially 16’s), Southern Pine had midweek block buying, and Western low-grade is tight while higher grades sit. Are we finally near equilibrium?
Thomas walks through European production declines, rising log costs, and why tariffs alone don’t drive shipments — economics do. Canadian shipments are down sharply year over year, and when you combine that with slightly softer housing starts, supply and demand may be closer than most think.
We also dig into the flattening futures curve, what that means for hedgers, whether Southern Pine mills are actually making money, and why a flat market might cause the most pain.
If you trade lumber, build with it, or hedge it — this one matters.
Timestamps
Advertiser:
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Product
www.fastmarkets.com
Guest: Thomas Mende
https://www.binderholz.com/
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: [email protected]
Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected]
Matt Beymer: [email protected]
Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]
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