The Lumber Word

By Ashley BoeckholtBusiness Investing

The Lumber Word episodes

October 29 EP 189: Buy, Buy, Buy? The Lumber Market’s Next Big Trade
Is the lumber market approaching one of the best buying opportunities of the year—or are buyers still too early? In Episode #189, Ashley Boeckholt, Gregg Riley, and Matt Beymer debate a weakening cash market, aggressive mill discounts, low inventories downstream, and the prospects for a seasonal rebound.
Ashley lays out the bearish case, including inventory pressure from VMI programs, uncertain housing demand, and the risk that prices stay low. Gregg argues that buyers with storage and capital should begin building their first-quarter positions in stages. Matt examines seasonal production curtailments, changing Hem-Fir versus SPF values, and the risks of cutting 2027 contracts and VMI commitments.

The conversation also covers November lumber futures and rolling positions, how to bid in a falling market, the psychology of buying when everyone is nervous, and why relationships with wholesalers still matter. The hosts close with what they will watch at the upcoming NAWLA Traders Market in Anaheim.

00:00
Introduction and NAWLA Traders Market preview
01:20
Ashley’s bearish outlook: weak demand and falling lumber prices
02:30
VMI inventory pressure, mill discounts and aggressive bids
04:05
Housing starts, Canadian capacity and downside risk
06:10
Matt compares current conditions with last winter
08:00
Chicago-delivered Hem-Fir versus SPF pricing
09:45
Liquidity, builders and housing-market concerns
12:05
Seasonal curtailments, imports and mill output
13:55
Bull case: low inventories and seasonal market bottoms
16:25
2027 contract and VMI reductions: potential supply risks
17:42
Gregg’s “Buy, Buy, Buy” staged purchasing strategy
19:00
Undervalued items, pricing and mill-net economics
20:35
November futures roll, open interest and delivery
22:40
Futures spreads and unusual cash-market opportunities
24:00
Trading psychology and uncomfortable buying decisions
26:12
Seasonal trading patterns and forest-products stocks
28:48
Buying lessons: compare species and specified tallies
31:14
How to build buy lists and target-price bids
32:22
Matt’s strategy for scaling into and out of positions
35:13
Purchase timing, mill relationships and aggressive bidding
36:18
Wholesalers, trust and liquidity
39:20
Broader distribution and 2027 price transparency
42:23
NAWLA sentiment and what to watch in Anaheim

44 min
October 23 EP 188: Low Inventories, Lower Expectations — What’s Holding Lumber Up?
The lumber market is sending mixed signals. Buyers are keeping inventories lean, mills are struggling to maintain profitability, and housing demand continues to disappoint. Yet lumber is still moving, and certain products are commanding surprising premiums.

This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, and Charles welcome back Mike Logelin of Gulf Coast Shelter for an unfiltered discussion of the North American lumber market heading into the final months of 2026.

From Southern Yellow Pine versus SPF pricing and mill breakevens to weak housing starts, construction labor shortages, and the challenge of making money while holding inventory, the group digs into what buyers, sellers, and traders are experiencing firsthand.

They also debate CME lumber futures, contango, delivery economics, the lack of liquidity in Southern Pine futures, and whether regional basis risk makes effective hedging harder than it should be.
As Gregg puts it: “The only positive that I can find right now is how negative everyone is.”

Is extreme pessimism a sign of a turning point—or is there more pain ahead? Tune in for market insight, honest disagreement, and a few laughs.

Timeline
00:00 Introduction and Mike Logelin returns
01:10 Southern Yellow Pine market conditions
03:20 Mill costs, breakevens, and production curtailments
05:25 Housing starts, permits, and completions
06:00 Construction labor shortages and builder slowdowns
09:45 Panelization, technology, and housing affordability
14:55 SPF pricing and buyer’s remorse
18:40 Southern Pine replacing SPF in certain markets
20:10 Lumber futures, cash pricing, and delivery economics
22:20 Lumber production and demand trends
26:20 Contango, backwardation, and the CME contract
29:20 Hedging when margins disappear
32:25 Market liquidity and distributor profitability
34:25 EFP opportunities and Southern Pine futures
38:00 Regional basis and Southern Pine futures liquidity
41:50 Bearish sentiment and the lumber market outlook
43:40 European lumber imports and freight concerns
45:15 Closing remarks

44 min
October 09 EP 186: Back to the Lumber Futures — Short Funds and the Last Lumber Cowboys
Lumber prices are soft—but the demand picture may surprise you. Scott Hall of Matheus Lumber joins The Lumber Word crew to explain why his company’s lumber volume has held relatively steady, where multifamily business is growing, and what customers are already booking for 2027.

Ashley Boeckholt, Gregg Riley, Matt Beymer, and Charles discuss whether SPF, US Species and SYP are finding a bottom, how mill curtailments may be supporting prices, and why freight remains a major challenge. Scott shares how he manages inventory against future commitments, why buying too far ahead can add costs, and what’s driving Texas builders toward Southern Yellow Pine studs.
The conversation also covers tight construction financing, the outlook for housing demand, and a key question: has supply fallen fast enough to keep weak demand from pushing lumber prices
much lower?
Episode timeline
00:00 Welcome and the first Patreon Insiders livestream
01:09 Lumber market overview: seasonal weakness and discounted cash prices
02:37 Spruce outlook: mill economics and potential curtailments
04:51 Southern Yellow Pine: freight and regional price differences
08:32 Meet Scott Hall of Matheus Lumber
10:27 Multifamily demand: steady volume and shifting regional activity
13:23 Booking 2027 projects and the risks of pricing too far ahead
16:02 How builders buy lumber—and how Scott manages inventory
19:19 Inside storage: protecting lumber and panels
20:51 Species switching: Southern Yellow Pine versus Douglas fir studs
22:16 Finger-jointed studs: pricing, availability, and alternatives
25:23 Western lumber update: is Douglas fir finding a bottom?
27:03 Gregg’s bottom call on spruce 2x4s
27:53 Homebuilder pressures and financing structures
30:24 Multifamily financing: contractors putting equity into projects
31:49 Has housing demand bottomed? The outlook into 2027
36:22 Q4 buying, curtailments, and a potentially higher price floor
37:59 Mill profitability and the importance of product mix
40:01 Why Western mills produce different sizes and grades
41:55 The Man in the Arena and lessons from trading every day
43:04 Patreon appreciation and a possible AI addition to the show
46:48 Thanks to Scott and closing remarks
Timestamps match the original recording. Edits or an added intro will shift them.
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
[email protected]
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: [email protected]
Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected]
Matt Beymer: [email protected]
Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]
47 min
September 25 EP 185: Something Has to Give in Lumber — Dustin Jalbert
AI, data centers and lumber? They're more connected than you might think.

Dustin Jalbert, Economist and Director of Wood Products & Timber at Fastmarkets, joins The Lumber Word to break down a North American lumber market where supply, imports, species and demand are all shifting at the same time.

The conversation digs into falling Canadian and European imports, changing U.S. lumber availability, Southern Pine and western-species substitution, sawmill residuals and what the headline lumber numbers may be missing.

Then Dustin takes us into one of the biggest economic stories affecting housing: the enormous investment flowing into AI and data centers. He explains how that boom can compete with residential construction for capital, labor and resources, influence inflation and interest rates, and ultimately affect housing and lumber demand.

The episode closes with the indicators Dustin believes lumber participants should be watching — and a moving tribute from Matt to longtime lumberman Dick Opperman.
Same industry. Deeper conversations.

TIMELINE
00:00 — Where is the lumber market right now?
The crew opens with inventories, falling prices, freight costs and slowing seasonal demand.
05:03 — AI and lumber? A preview of what's coming
Dustin explains why seemingly unrelated parts of the economy eventually intersect with lumber.
~08:00 — Canadian duties and the supply question
What changing Canadian lumber duties could mean for production, curtailments and SPF returning to the
U.S. market.
13:17 — Lumber imports are falling
The Fastmarkets data on Canadian and offshore imports and why apparent supply doesn't necessarily
equal actual consumption.
15:23 — Canada and Europe disappear from the supply picture
Dustin breaks down where billions of board feet have shifted and why the numbers need context.
18:06 — Who benefits from fewer imports?
U.S. producers, Doug Fir, Southern Pine and the changing competitive landscape.
19:11 — Is species substitution coming back?
Matt discusses SPF, Hem-Fir, Doug Fir and how modern purchasing systems changed the industry's willingness to substitute species.
21:25 — Southern Yellow Pine's changing position
Why the SYP market can tell a very different story from the lumber futures screen.
25:05 — Sawmill residuals: why chips and sawdust matter
Dustin explains the economics of residuals and why they're an important part of keeping a sawmill
profitable.
34:08 — MAIN EVENT: AI, data centers and housing
The conversation turns to the enormous capital flowing into AI infrastructure.
35:34 — Why lumber people need to pay attention to AI
Dustin explains how AI investment is contributing to broader economic growth and why that matters to
lumber.
~37:00 — Data centers competing with housing
Capital, labor and other resources get pulled toward massive data-center projects.
38:42 — Can AI help keep interest rates higher?
Dustin connects growth, inflation, Treasury yields, fiscal deficits and the AI investment boom.
40:12 — The AI wealth effect
How stock-market gains may be supporting higher-income consumers and helping create a floor under
housing demand.
42:00 — Housing affordability & cash buyers
Mortgage rates, demographics and why some buyers can still participate despite historically difficult
affordability.
44:02 — Work from home changed housing demand
Dustin discusses mobility and how remote work has permanently altered where some people can live.
46:03 — What happens next for lumber?
Matt summarizes the pressures hitting the industry and the potential for volatility.
47:04 — Remembering Dick Opperman
Matt gives a heartfelt tribute to a longtime lumberman, friend and mentor — and a reminder to thank the
people who helped you along the way.
49:37 — What lumber people should be watching
Dustin discusses closures, operating rates, downstream indicators and other data beyond daily lumber
prices.
51:00 — New Fastmarkets indicators & market sentiment
A look at new tools designed to better understand where market participants think conditions may be
heading.
52:03 — Closing thoughts with Dustin

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
[email protected]
www.fastmarkets.com
Guest: Dustin Jalbert
Economist/ Director, Wood Products and Timber
Fastmarkets
[email protected]

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: [email protected]
Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected]
Matt Beymer: [email protected]
Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]
53 min
September 25 EP 184: How Random Lengths Really Reports the Lumber Market — Mary Hansen
What goes into a Random Lengths lumber price assessment?

Mary Hansen of Fastmarkets Random Lengths joins The Lumber Word for a behind-the-scenes look at some of the methodology behind lumber market reporting. Mary explains the difference between a reporter and an economist, how market information is gathered through multiple channels, why confirmed transactions carry weight, and how volume, timing and market context factor into an assessment.

We also dig into some of the Random Lengths data and tools subscribers may not realize they're already getting — including European 2x4's; spruce pricing, Southern Pine Prime adders, historical data, dashboard pricing and alerts — plus what Mary is currently hearing across the lumber market.
Same industry. Deeper conversations.
TIMELINE

00:00 — Meet Mary Hansen of Fastmarkets Random Lengths
Mary's path from journalism to mortgages and eventually commodity reporting.
05:28 — What does a Random Lengths reporter actually do?
Mary explains her markets, reporting days and the process of gathering market information.
07:25 — Reporter vs. economist
Why reporting and assessing today's market is very different from forecasting where prices are going.
09:08 — How the Random Lengths methodology works
Confirmed transactions, volume, recency, discounts, one-off trades and the hierarchy of market
information.
13:05 — Turning all that information into assessments
How Mary organizes the data, works through individual items and coordinates with other reporters.
16:04 — Inside a major Random Lengths reporting day
What happens behind the scenes as the team works toward publication.
29:30 — What Random Lengths subscribers may be missing
Ashley starts digging into information that's already available but may be overlooked.
29:52 — European 2x4 16' spruce pricing
Where to find the European spruce assessment and why it matters to North American traders.
32:17 — Southern Pine Prime adders & new assessments
Mary points out another piece of market data hiding in plain sight.
35:45 — Using the Fastmarkets dashboard
Historical prices, exports, charts and ways subscribers can use the online data.
36:45 — Prices can hit the dashboard before the PDF
A useful discovery for anyone waiting for the traditional Random Lengths publication.
40:05 — What else comes with Random Lengths?
The broader suite of reports, analysis, international coverage, forecasts and market information.
42:52 — Daily Southern Yellow Pine pricing & alerts
Using the dashboard and email alerts to follow daily SYP pricing.
44:45 — What Mary is hearing in today's lumber market
Mill discipline, freight and diesel costs, U.S.–Canada trade and just-in-time buying.
47:08 — The relationship side of the lumber business
What surprised Mary most after entering the industry.

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
[email protected]
www.fastmarkets.com
Guest: Mary Hansen
Editorial Team Leader
Fastmarkets
[email protected]
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: [email protected]
Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected]
Matt Beymer: [email protected]
Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]
50 min
September 18 EP 183: Nobody Wants Lumber — Even With Inventories Running on Fumes
The lumber market is heading into Q4 with an unusual setup: inventories across the supply chain appear extremely lean, yet buyers still aren't willing to take much risk.
In Episode #183, Ashley, Matt, Gregg and Charles dig into what's actually trading versus published prices, growing price disparities between mills, tightening truck availability, rail issues and the increasingly important role of freight. The group also breaks down housing starts, builder headwinds, interest rates and what declining demand could mean for mill production and lumber prices into year-end.
With 2x4 looking increasingly vulnerable while several other items remain historically expensive, the conversation turns to the real question for Q4: What should you own, what should you sell, and where is the opportunity?
Timeline
00:00 Housing & the Q4 Setup
02:03 Lumber Inventories Running Low
04:03 Less Lumber Than Last Year?
06:06 The Hedging Problem
08:04 Trucking Gets Ugly Again
11:07 Hem-Fir, SPF & Real Prices
13:05 Futures vs. Cash
14:23 Huge Mill Price Disparities
15:37 Are Contract Buyers Overpaying?
16:24 Southern Pine Pricing
19:04 Freight Becomes the Wild Card
22:00 Hem-Fir vs. SPF
24:13 What Changes This Market?
28:20 Rates & Housing Affordability
30:39 Are Builders Slowing Down?
32:04 The Bearish Q4 Case
34:25 Navigating Q4
35:28 Where Opportunities Still Exist
36:21 Apathy Defines the Market
36:39 What to Own & What to Sell
38:06 Marry, Date or Dump
39:03 Where Pine Prices Could Go
39:44 Final Thoughts

Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
[email protected]
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: [email protected]
Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected]
Matt Beymer: [email protected]
Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]

42 min
September 11 EP 182: The Lumber Market Is Strongly Sideways
The lumber market is moving plenty of volume—but not necessarily going anywhere. This week, Ashley, Gregg and Charles are joined by Bart Charles to break down a market that is strongly sideways. The crew digs into Spruce, Hem-Fir and Southern Yellow Pine, the growing opportunity in forward pricing, tight supply in key items, and why getting aggressively long or short could be a mistake right now.
With futures offering opportunities to lock in Q1 business, limited production keeping a floor under prices, and housing demand still fighting affordability, the question becomes: Where is the next real opportunity in lumber?
Timeline
00:00 Bart Charles joins the show
01:49 Housing, existing-home inventory & demand
04:18 Is the lumber market “strongly sideways”?
06:19 Coastal Hem-Fir vs. Inland pricing
09:52 Breaking down Hem-Fir and Spruce
13:54 Southern Yellow Pine market update
15:13 Diesel prices, trucking & freight costs
17:03 Where does the lumber market go from here?
19:24 Gregg: The market is “sharply sideways”
21:05 Forward pricing & futures opportunities
23:01 Are buyers willing to pay Q1 premiums?
29:48 Supply reductions, demand & price risk
31:25 Mortgage rates and housing affordability
32:33 Tight inventory and replacement costs
34:28 Are traders still short lumber?
35:09 Short opportunities in Southern Pine
37:03 “Sharply Sideways” becomes the episode theme
39:33 Why getting too long—or too short—could hurt
39:51 Locking in Q1 margins
40:15 Why there’s no good inventory hedge right now
41:12 The “O’Hare Hedge”
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
[email protected]
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: [email protected]
Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected]
Matt Beymer: [email protected]
Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]

Guest
Bart Charles
[email protected]

41 min
September 04 EP 181: Are the Funds Now the Smart Money in Lumber?
Is the lumber market finally trying to put in a bottom—or is this just another bounce before seasonal weakness takes over?
This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, and Charles break down the latest action across SPF, Southern Yellow Pine, Hem-Fir, studs, and CME lumber futures. The guys discuss the growing disconnect between September futures and the cash market, the possibility of taking delivery against September, and why some buyers may want to start covering needs rather than waiting for the perfect bottom.
Charles takes a deep dive into Southern Yellow Pine, where sharp price swings, tighter production control, freight volatility, and execution risk are making the market increasingly difficult to trade. The conversation also turns to Southern timberland, falling pulpwood demand, mill closures, and what cheap Southern fiber could mean for lumber production longer term.
Then Ashley raises a bigger question: Who is really the smart money in lumber today—the industry or the funds? The guys examine how large systematic and trend-following funds can stay with positions far longer than physical traders expect, ignore traditional ideas like cost of production, and potentially push lumber much farther in either direction than the industry thinks makes sense.
The episode wraps with signs of bottoming in futures, narrow Southern Pine, SPF dimension and studs, the possibility of a trading bounce into September expiration, and where November futures could run into resistance.
Timeline
00:00 – Opening, Lumber Word merch & potential Traders Market appearance
02:50 – Cash market update and seasonal weakness
04:20 – September vs. November futures and the cash/futures discount
06:30 – Could taking September CME delivery make sense?
08:00 – Is SPF beginning to find a trading bottom?
09:00 – Stud values and major relative-value opportunities
11:10 – Southern Yellow Pine: 4-inch strength and shrinking discount windows
12:45 – Pine volatility, freight costs and huge moves in wides
14:00 – How well is the CME Southern Pine contract tracking cash?
15:45 – Short covering or the beginning of a real market bounce?
20:00 – Why buyers with business on the books may want to start covering
22:00 – Market headwinds: tariffs, mortgage rates and housing demand
25:30 – Seasonal weakness, freight risk and the importance of execution
28:20 – "No edge, no hedge" and finding an advantage in today's market
32:15 – What is happening to Southern U.S. timberland?
33:20 – Cheap Southern fiber, pulp mill closures and long-term implications
38:45 – Industry vs. funds: Who is really the smart money?
40:00 – Why large funds can push lumber beyond industry expectations
42:10 – Cost of production, shutdown economics and lost Canadian production
43:15 – Bottoming signals across futures, Pine, SPF and studs
44:30 – November futures resistance and the September/November spread
46:00 – Closing thoughts

Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
[email protected]
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: [email protected]
Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected]
Matt Beymer: [email protected]
Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]

48 min
August 28 EP 180: $500 Lumber? The Market Is Sending a Message
The lumber market is getting interesting again—and the signals aren’t exactly lining up.
Ashley, Gregg, and Matt break down a market where demand remains “punky,” western species flailing, studs are showing slight signs of life after deep counters, and lumber futures are trading at a steep discount to cash. The big question: Is November lumber really headed toward $500—or is the futures market getting too bearish?
Gregg lays out the technical case for why $500 is at least possible, while Matt sees real value developing at current levels and argues that some of the best buying opportunities may be showing up right now. Meanwhile, Ashley asks the question every trader should be asking: Where is the edge?
The guys dig into forward pricing, inventory strategy, hedging when the board is at a discount, Canadian tariffs, shrinking contract business, and why 2027 could bring more open-market buying—and potentially more volatility.
The takeaway? This probably isn’t the market to be a hero. Stay liquid, turn inventory, buy value, sell the overvalued stuff, and be ready when the market finally shows its hand.
1.Timeline
00:00 — Episode #180: What’s the market telling us?
01:37 — Housing demand remains “punky”
05:00 — Western species bounce and the buying starts
09:20 — Can lumber really rally into the fall?
11:45 — Is November futures getting too cheap?
14:25 — Forward lumber pricing and the opportunity for buyers
17:00 — Where is the edge in today’s lumber market?
18:10 — September/November futures positioning
19:30 — The $500 lumber bomb gets dropped
21:25 — Canadian tariffs, mill economics and supply
25:00 — Should buyers start putting out aggressive Q4/Q1 numbers?
26:45 — How do you manage inventory if lumber falls to $500?
29:00 — Carry less inventory, hedge actively and stay opportunistic
30:20 — What happens if November trades at a huge discount to cash?
33:00 — Could 2027 bring fewer contracts and more open-market buying?
37:30 — Less contract business could mean more volatility
40:15 — Looking ahead to the 2027 lumber market
44:40 — Ashley’s lesson: You can get long faster than you think
46:35 — The low-inventory strategy heading into fall
49:00 — What lumber items still have value—and liquidity?
50:20 — $500 lumber: prediction or just a possibility?
52:25 — Are studs signaling the next cash-market rally?
53:45 — Matt’s game plan: If cheap 2x4 shows up, buy it
53:55 — Southern Yellow Pine starts bouncing off the lows

Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
[email protected]
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: [email protected]
Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected]
Matt Beymer: [email protected]
Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]

53 min
August 21 Episode 179: Don’t Sell the Bottom
The lumber market has cooled off — but has it found a bottom?
This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt and Charles break down a market where you can seemingly “sell as much lumber as you want and not make any money.” Eastern SPF has taken a serious haircut, studs are showing signs of life, Southern Pine has firmed from its lows, and low inventories throughout the supply chain could make the next move happen fast.
The crew digs into SPF, Southern Pine, Doug Fir, studs, 2x4 and 2x6, where real business is trading, and whether the recent bounce is the beginning of something — or just another short-lived rally in a seasonally softer second half.
They also tackle the bigger picture: ugly housing data, mortgage rates, Treasury debt buybacks, CME futures versus cash, forward Q4 business, and what potentially opening more federal land to logging could mean for western sawmills and timber owners.
But the real conversation is about risk.
Why are people selling forward business below acceptable risk? When should you walk away from an order? Is the market already too short? And after a strong first half of 2026, should traders be shrinking inventory and waiting for the next real opportunity?
Matt sums it up: don’t buy or sell in a panic. Charles warns against the market’s “false sense of security.” And the crew debates whether every rally between now and year-end may be an opportunity to sell.
Less inventory. Less risk. Better decisions. And don’t sell the bottom.
Another unfiltered hour of lumber markets, trading strategy, housing, futures and plenty of Lumber Word banter.
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
[email protected]
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: [email protected]
Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected]
Matt Beymer: [email protected]
Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]

er market has cooled off — but has it found a bottom?
This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt and Charles break down a market where you can seemingly “sell as much lumber as you want and not make any money.” Eastern SPF has taken a serious haircut, studs are showing signs of life, Southern Pine has firmed from its lows, and low inventories throughout the supply chain could make the next move happen fast.
The crew digs into SPF, Southern Pine, Doug Fir, studs, 2x4 and 2x6, where real business is trading, and whether the recent bounce is the beginning of something — or just another short-lived rally in a seasonally softer second half.
They also tackle the bigger picture: ugly housing data, mortgage rates, Treasury debt buybacks, CME futures versus cash, forward Q4 business, and what potentially opening more federal land to logging could mean for western sawmills and timber owners.
But the real conversation is about risk.
Why are people selling forward business below acceptable risk? When should you walk away from an order? Is the market already too short? And after a strong first half of 2026, should traders be shrinking inventory and waiting for the next real opportunity?
Matt sums it up: don’t buy or sell in a panic. Charles warns against the market’s “false sense of security.” And the crew debates whether every rally between now and year-end may be an opportunity to sell.
Less inventory. Less risk. Better decisions. And don’t sell the bottom.
Another unfiltered hour of lumber markets, trading strategy, housing, futures and plenty of Lumber Word banter.
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
[email protected]
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: [email protected]
Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected]
Matt Beymer: [email protected]
Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]

58 min

About The Lumber Word

From the publisher's feed

The Lumber Word is the weekly podcast for the North American lumber and building materials industry. Three lumber industry veterans break down lumber prices, market trends, supply and demand, sawmill production, inventories, transportation, housing, and the forces moving the physical lumber market.