This week, we welcome Thomas Mende back to break down what’s really happening in the lumber market.
Eastern Spruce is showing selective discounts (especially 16’s), Southern Pine had midweek block buying, and Western low-grade is tight while higher grades sit. Are we finally near equilibrium?
Thomas walks through European production declines, rising log costs, and why tariffs alone don’t drive shipments — economics do. Canadian shipments are down sharply year over year, and when you combine that with slightly softer housing starts, supply and demand may be closer than most think.
We also dig into the flattening futures curve, what that means for hedgers, whether Southern Pine mills are actually making money, and why a flat market might cause the most pain.
If you trade lumber, build with it, or hedge it — this one matters.
Timestamps
00:00 – Market pulse: Spruce, Pine & truck spreads06:30 – Southern Pine block buying & 16’ pricing10:00 – Europe shipments, tariffs & rising log costs17:30 – Western market: low-grade squeeze21:30 – Housing starts & real wood usage math27:00 – Canadian shipment declines31:00 – Futures flattening: what it means35:30 – Mill closures & Southern Pine profitability40:00 – Softwood Lumber Board & CLT demand growth45:00 – Tariff ruling update & market outlookSenior Economist Wood Product
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