The Lumber Word

By Ashley BoeckholtBusiness Investing

The Lumber Word episodes

August 14 EP 178: Is It Time to Buy? | Sig Thoma on Housing, OSB, Futures & the Next Market Move
The lumber market just dropped roughly $100 in three weeks - but is the selloff creating the next big buying opportunity?
In Episode #178 of The Lumber Word, industry veteran Sig Thoma joins Ashley, Gregg, and Matt for a wide-ranging conversation about what's really happening beneath the surface of the lumber market.
Inventories are getting lean, cash prices are falling well below published levels, and CME lumber futures are carrying a major discount. Sig brings a broader perspective to the conversation, including a fascinating look at a massive lumber buyer whose sheds were nearly empty - a sign that the industry may be running much leaner than many realize.
The crew dives into Southern Yellow Pine, Canadian SPF, Western species, OSB, European lumber, housing and mill profitability. Sig explains why the OSB market has effectively become two different markets, with dramatically different pricing between the U.S. South and West.
Then the conversation gets deeper.
Why aren't more sawmills using CME lumber futures to lock in profitable sales? Could increased futures participation improve price discovery across the entire lumber industry? And could a transparent U.S.-based futures market eventually become part of the argument surrounding Canadian anti-dumping duties and how lumber's true market price is established?
Sig also breaks down the housing problem: mortgage applications have fallen sharply from their June highs, new-home sales remain well below historical peaks, and affordability continues to constrain demand.
The episode finishes with a fascinating discussion about pulp capacity and something most lumber buyers rarely think about: sawmill byproducts. Chips, sawdust, shavings and residual values can materially change sawmill economics - and losing pulp outlets could ultimately influence lumber production itself.
Is this simply an August lumber correction - or is the market setting up for its next major trade?
Timeline
00:00 - Lumber drops roughly $100 & the CME discount
06:00 - Cash lumber, mill pricing & where buyers are hiding
10:40 - Sig's incredible look at extremely lean inventories
14:25 - Southern Yellow Pine economics & Canadian SPF losses
15:00 - Sig breaks down the strange OSB market
17:20 - European lumber arrivals & Eastern SPF
20:00 - Western species vs. CME futures
21:00 - Why aren't more sawmills using lumber futures?
25:00 - Forward pricing opportunities & multifamily
27:00 - Where could the lumber market finally bottom?
29:20 - What happens if you actually take CME delivery?
31:00 - Sig on futures culture & changing the lumber industry
32:20 - Housing, mortgage applications & affordability
35:50 - Southern sawmills, pulp capacity & mill economics
39:45 - Canadian lumber duties delayed
41:00 - Could CME pricing challenge the anti-dumping argument?
44:00 - Manufacturing, tariffs & deglobalization
46:30 - A wild real-world CME delivery story
48:15 - Sig closes with a classic story & market warning
Keywords
Lumber Market, Lumber Prices, Sig Thoma, CME Lumber Futures, Lumber Futures, SPF Lumber, Canadian Lumber, Southern Yellow Pine, OSB Prices, Housing Market, Mortgage Rates, Sawmills, Lumber Duties, Anti-Dumping Duties, Softwood Lumber, Lumber Trading, Building Materials, Wood Products, Lumber Industry, The Lumber Word Podcast
50 min
July 30 EP 177: NAWLA Opens the Doors, Southern Pine Opportunity & Lumber Market Outlook
This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley Boeckholt, Gregg Matt, and Charles welcome Kyle Little, COO of Sherwood Lumber and Immediate Past Chair of NAWLA, for an in-depth conversation on one of the biggest changes in the lumber industry's premier trade organization.

Kyle explains how NAWLA is opening its 2026 Traders Market in Anaheim, CA, November 4-6, to the broader wood products industry, making networking, education, and collaboration more accessible than ever before. The discussion also explores the association's long-term vision and why these changes could reshape industry relationships for years to come.

The crew then shifts to today's lumber market—covering lean inventories, Southern Yellow Pine pricing, Western species, Canfor's Fox Creek closure, multifamily housing demand, futures positioning, and the trading opportunities emerging from historically wide species spreads.

Whether you're a trader, sawmill, distributor, dealer, builder, or housing professional, this episode delivers practical market intelligence you can use immediately.
Episode Timeline
00:00 – Welcome Kyle Little & NAWLA updates
03:00 – Why NAWLA is opening the Traders Market
12:00 – Wood Basics, leadership development & networking
19:15 – Current lumber market conditions
22:45 – Lean inventories and housing demand
25:00 – Southern Yellow Pine outlook
28:00 – Western species, production & wildfire discussion
33:30 – Doug Fir vs. SPF vs. Southern Pine trading opportunities
37:45 – Bullish and bearish market picks
43:00 – Best buying opportunities in today's lumber market
46:45 – Interest rates, housing & what comes next
51:00 – Sherwood Lumber updates and final thoughts
Guest
Kyle Little, COO, Sherwood Lumber
[email protected]
NAWLA: North American Wholesale Lumber Association
2026 Traders Market Information
If you want to meet with the top companies and individuals in the industry, this is a must-attend!
https://nawla.org/events/tradersmarket
Matt Bruno: Executive Director, NAWLA
[email protected]
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
[email protected]
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: [email protected]
Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected]
Matt Beymer: [email protected]
Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]

53 min
July 24 EP 176: Lumber Market Crossroads: Supply Cuts, Futures Strategy & Why Demand Is Better Than You Think
The lumber market may feel quiet, but beneath the surface, major forces are shaping the second half of 2026. In Episode 176 of The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down slowing summer activity, surprising housing data, Canadian production cuts, Southern Yellow Pine trends, and why lumber futures remain one of the industry's most underused risk management tools. Plus, the crew dives deep into species spreads, pricing opportunities, and what separates great lumber traders from everyone else.

Timeline
00:00 – Summer slowdown or just a seasonal pause?
05:30 – Housing starts surprise the market: supply vs. demand
13:00 – Canadian curtailments, fiber shortages & wildfire impacts
17:00 – Southern Yellow Pine futures and managing price risk
25:00 – Why the panel is hedging lumber futures today
31:00 – Species spreads: SPF vs. Doug Fir, Hem-Fir & Southern Pine
35:00 – Why traders love the 'in the weeds' market discussion
39:00 – How great lumber traders are developed—and why training still matters
58 min
July 17 EP 175: Lumber Market Crossroads: Is $700 2x4 SPF Coming? Pine, Western Species & the Next Big Trade
The lumber market may feel quiet—but beneath the surface, major shifts are taking place.

In Episode #175 of The Lumber Word, Ashley Boeckholt, Greg Riley, Matt Beymer, and Charles DeLaTorre discuss why the current market could be setting up for its next significant move. The crew breaks down Canadian SPF, Southern Yellow Pine, Western species, and why inventory positioning may matter more than ever heading into late summer.

Matt shares insights from the Inland Lumber Producers Conference, highlighting how market conditions have become highly regionalized across North America. The conversation also pays tribute to three respected industry leaders whose retirements mark the end of an era in the lumber business.

Other topics include:
• Is SPF 2x4 the cheapest value in North American lumber today?
• Could Western Spruce reach $700 by Labor Day?
• Southern Yellow Pine supply, production cuts, and inventory trends
• Why mills still aren't chasing production despite stronger pricing
• Forward pricing opportunities and why buyers remain cautious
• Canadian shipment trends and what they signal for the second half of 2026
• The importance of mentorship, relationships, and reputation in the lumber industry

Whether you're a lumber trader, sawmill executive, wholesaler, retailer, builder, or simply follow North American wood products markets, this episode delivers practical market intelligence and industry insight you won't want to miss.
Simple Timeline
00:00 – Episode 175 begins and current lumber market overview
02:00 – Why SPF 2x4 appears undervalued compared to other lumber products
06:00 – Customer visits, building relationships, and selling opportunities
07:00 – Matt's recap of the Inland Lumber Producers Conference
09:45 – Honoring retiring lumber industry leaders
17:30 – Mentorship and why relationships define long-term success in lumber
18:00 – Southern Yellow Pine market update with Charles
20:00 – Western species, Douglas Fir, Hem-Fir, and current trading conditions
23:00 – Distribution inventories, buying strategies, and market positioning
25:45 – Forward pricing opportunities and why buyers remain hesitant
27:00 – Dimension lumber discussion: 2x10s, 2x12s, and seasonal production trends
33:00 – Canadian production, stud mills, and profitability
37:00 – Pulp markets, fiber supply, and residual economics
39:30 – Canadian shipment data, inventory outlook, and what's next for the lumber market.
47 min
July 09 EP 174: Running Out of Wood? Russ Taylor on the Market Nobody Saw Coming
Russ Taylor of Russ Taylor Global returns to The Lumber Word for a deep dive into one of the most fascinating lumber markets in years. The crew discusses shrinking North American production, tightening inventories, Canadian export trends, Southern Pine pricing, mill profitability, tariffs, transportation, and why supply—not demand—continues to drive prices. With production capacity permanently removed across North America and limited ability to quickly restart mills, the panel explores whether higher prices are here to stay into late 2026. If you trade, manufacture, distribute, or simply follow the lumber industry, this episode delivers market intelligence you won't want to miss.
Timeline
00:00 – Soccer banter before shifting into lumber markets.
02:00 – Current SPF and Southern Pine market conditions and regional pricing.
08:00 – Russ Taylor reviews Canadian production and export data.
15:00 – Mill profitability, duties, tariffs and North American cost structures.
21:00 – Why supply constraints are outweighing demand.
28:00 – Southern Pine production, logistics and trucking challenges.
34:00 – Wood chip markets, pulp demand and byproduct economics.
35:30 – 30-, 60- and 90-day market outlook and pricing expectations.
41:00 – Canadian shipments, tariff timing and closing market outlook.
Guest: Russ Taylor
WWW.russtaylorglobal.com

Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
[email protected]
49 min
June 25EP 173: The Lumber Market Just Changed—and Most People Haven't Noticed
Episode Summary
Episode #173 welcomes returning guest Mike Wisnefski of Westline Capital for an in-depth discussion on the evolving lumber market. The panel explores lessons from the Southern Pine Conference, why the CME Southern Pine futures contract could benefit from monthly expirations, and how better participation could improve liquidity. Mike shares how private equity ownership is changing sawmill decision-making, while the group examines why Western and Eastern lumber markets have tightened despite mixed economic headlines. The conversation also dives into inventory strategy, options pricing, reload capacity, trucking, and the growing importance of disciplined risk management. Finally, the hosts debate housing policy, builder demand, infrastructure, and why regional economics continue to drive long-term lumber consumption. This episode offers practical insights for wholesalers, retailers, mills, traders, and anyone following the North American lumber industry.
Timeline
00:00 – Introductions, Chicago sports, and welcome back to Mike Wisnefski.
02:00 – Southern Pine Conference recap—networking, collaboration, and supply chain partnerships.
04:00 – Private equity ownership of sawmills and changing mill economics.
05:30 – Future of the CME Southern Pine futures contract and ideas for improving liquidity.
10:00 – Cash settlement, delivery points, and regional pricing challenges.
15:00 – Western lumber market strength, improving order files, and species updates.
18:00 – Dimension shortages, 2x10 pricing, and shifting production patterns.
20:00 – Eastern market tightness, European imports, and shrinking inventories.
25:00 – Housing legislation, permitting challenges, and rebuilding constraints.
31:30 – Regional migration, affordability, and long-term housing demand.
34:00 – Inventory strategy, reload economics, and why distributors are regaining value.
40:00 – Options pricing, risk management, and disciplined trading strategies.
44:00 – Closing thoughts on market structure, hedging opportunities, and the second-half outlook.
Guest: Mike Wisnefski from Westline Capital Strategies Inc.
[email protected]

Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
[email protected]
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: [email protected]
Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected]
Matt Beymer: [email protected]
Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]
54 min
June 18 EP 172: Lumber Market Rally: Inventory Panic, Freight Crunch & Why Prices Could Keep Climbing
Matt Layman returns to The Lumber Word for an in-depth discussion on one of the hottest topics in the lumber industry: the summer lumber rally. With inventories running lean, freight markets tightening, and mills extending order files, the crew explores whether lumber prices still have room to run.

The conversation begins with a recap of the Southern Pine hedging seminar hosted by StoneX and Westline Capital, where attendees discussed the future of lumber risk management, liquidity challenges, and why more companies need to gain hands-on experience using futures markets.

The group then shifts to the cash lumber market, breaking down strength in SPF, Southern Yellow Pine, Hem-Fir, and Douglas Fir. Matt shares what he's seeing in the Pacific Northwest, while Gregg and Ashley discuss supply constraints, delayed shipments, trucking shortages, and why buying lumber is becoming harder than selling it.

They also analyze the latest housing starts data, debate whether demand is stronger than many expect, and discuss how lean inventories throughout the supply chain continue to support higher prices despite widespread economic pessimism.

Plus: freight disruptions, rail delays, inventory management, futures trading lessons, Elon Musk, SpaceX, and Ashley's outlook for where lumber prices may be headed through July and beyond.

If you're a lumber dealer, wholesaler, manufacturer, builder, trader, or investor looking to stay ahead of the market, this episode is packed with actionable insights.

Topics Covered
Lumber Market Outlook
SPF Lumber Prices
Southern Yellow Pine (SYP)
Hem-Fir & Douglas Fir Markets
Lumber Futures & Hedging
Freight & Trucking Costs
Rail Service Challenges
Housing Starts Analysis
Inventory Management
Lumber Industry Economics
SpaceX & Market Psychology
Summer 2026 Lumber Rally
Timeline
00:00 – Matt Layman Returns to The Lumber Word
03:00 – Southern Pine Futures, Hedging & Market Participation
07:00 – Risk Management: How Lumber Companies Should Think About Futures
15:00 – Trading Lessons: Winning, Losing & Market Discipline
16:00 – SPF, Hem-Fir & Douglas Fir Break Higher
21:00 – Is Southern Yellow Pine Finally Joining the Rally?
27:00 – Housing Starts: What the Headlines Missed
30:00 – Elon Musk, SpaceX & Economic Optimism
34:00 – Ashley's Bullish Case for Lumber
38:00 – Freight Bottlenecks, Rail Delays & Inventory Shortages
44:00+ – Why Buying Lumber Is Harder Than Selling It
Episode Takeaway

The lumber market continues to be driven by one simple reality: inventories remain too low while supply struggles to keep up. Despite negative sentiment around housing and the economy, buyers continue to chase wood, mills are extending order files, and freight remains a major constraint. The panel agrees that the path of least resistance for lumber prices remains higher until inventories are rebuilt and supply catches up.

Guest: Matt Layman
www.laymansguide.com
[email protected]

Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
[email protected]
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: [email protected]
Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected]
Matt Beymer: [email protected]
Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]

56 min
June 11 EP 171: The Bull Market Nobody Believes In (Yet)
The lumber market may be sending its clearest signal of 2026: supply is shrinking, inventories are lean, and futures are leading the charge higher. In Episode 171, the crew welcomes industry veteran Kip Fotheringham for a deep dive into the forces reshaping North American lumber markets.

From tightening SPF supply and Southern Yellow Pine transportation challenges to Canadian curtailments, futures fund short covering, and the surprising resilience of housing demand, the group lays out the bullish case that's beginning to unfold. They debate whether we're in the first inning or the third inning of a larger rally, examine why major funds are potentially abandoning short positions, and discuss how shrinking production capacity could collide with steady demand to create a much tighter market through the summer.

The conversation also explores Berkshire Hathaway's investment in homebuilding, multifamily construction strength, pulp mill closures, fiber supply challenges, and the Longview explosion's potential impact on Western sawmill production. If you're a lumber buyer, trader, mill operator, or builder, this episode offers a roadmap to the risks—and opportunities—developing beneath the surface of today's market.

Timeline
00:00 – Lumber, Airports & Industry Reach
Portland Airport gets a surprising shoutout, and the crew shares a story highlighting how The Lumber Word continues to influence industry conversations.
03:30 – Are We Early in a Bull Market?
The panel debates whether the lumber rally is just getting started and what buyers should be doing right now.
07:00 – Transportation Becomes the Story
Escalating trucking costs and regional supply constraints are changing how lumber moves across North America.
09:00 – Canada's Supply Problem Gets Real
Discussion on curtailments, mill economics, and why North American production continues to shrink.
15:00 – Why This Summer Feels Different
The crew explains why inventory positions, contract reductions, and tariff pressures have created an unusual setup.
22:00 – The Longview Explosion & Fiber Fallout
A major disruption in the Pacific Northwest raises new questions about residual markets and future sawmill production.
25:00 – Smart Money is Buying Housing
Berkshire Hathaway, Japanese investors, and multifamily construction all point toward longer-term confidence in housing demand.
30:00 – Funds Are Covering Shorts
Kip breaks down what the futures market is signaling and why short-covering could fuel a larger move higher.
35:00 – What Could Derail the Rally?
The group examines the biggest risks to their bullish outlook and what buyers should watch over the next 30 days.
44:00 – Final Take: Bullish Until Proven Otherwise
The episode wraps with a discussion on shrinking supply, steady demand, and why the market's biggest surprise may still be ahead.
Guest: Kip Fotheringham
Lumber Trader and Market Expert
[email protected]

Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
[email protected]
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: [email protected]
Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected]
Matt Beymer: [email protected]
Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]
46 min
June 05 EP 170: Freight Is Eating the Lumber Market
This week on The Lumber Word, the crew tackles the biggest issue in lumber today: freight. From Buffalo reloads buried under railcars to Southern Pine mills struggling with transportation costs, the conversation centers on how logistics—not mill prices—are driving the market. The team discusses tightening inventories, shrinking North American supply, species substitution, and why prompt wood may be worth more than ever. Gregg doubles down on his bullish lumber outlook, while the group debates whether SPF is significantly undervalued heading into the second half of 2026. If freight remains tight and supply stays constrained, the market could be setting up for a stronger move than many expect.
Timeline
0:00 – Back From the Road – Travel stories, reload visits, and market observations.
2:00 – Buffalo Is Jammed – Railcars are arriving fast and unloading slowly.
5:00 – Chicago Reload Expansion – New capacity could become a major advantage.
7:00 – Freight Is the Story – Higher trucking costs are changing lumber economics.
11:00 – Pine Mills Hit the Brakes – Transportation issues may be limiting production.
15:00 – Contract Pricing Gets Tested – Suppliers are absorbing freight pain.
18:00 – Rail vs. Truck – Why transportation knowledge is becoming a competitive edge.
23:00 – Greg's Bull Case – Less supply, steady demand, and higher prices ahead.
29:00 – Prompt Wood Wins – Inventory ready to ship is commanding a premium.
32:00 – Lean Pipelines Everywhere – Buyers may be more undercovered than they realize.
35:00 – Second Half Setup – The crew sees more reasons for lumber to rise than fall.
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
[email protected]
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: [email protected]
Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected]
Matt Beymer: [email protected]
Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]
57 min
May 21 EP 169: Commando Lumber Trading: Tight Wood, No Trucks, No Hedge
The crew breaks down a lumber market that feels calm on the surface but is getting tighter underneath. Trucking is a disaster, inventories stay lean, mills are not panicking, and buyers still have not adjusted.
0:00-4:00 - College kids, Waymos, and bad decisions after midnight
4:00-9:00 - SYP stabilizes but trucking wrecks pricing
9:00-15:00 - Freight market insanity and disappearing trucks
15:00-22:00 - Spruce stays steady while inventories thin out
22:00-28:00 - Canadian curtailments and supply fears build
28:00-34:00 - Reloads emptying and buyers still underbought
34:00-39:00 - Futures, no hedge, and bullish summer bets
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
[email protected]
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: [email protected]
Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected]
Matt Beymer: [email protected]
Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]
54 min

About The Lumber Word

From the publisher's feed

The Lumber Word is the weekly podcast for the North American lumber and building materials industry. Three lumber industry veterans break down lumber prices, market trends, supply and demand, sawmill production, inventories, transportation, housing, and the forces moving the physical lumber market.