“In 2019, the chance for a weak to moderate El Niño is definitely on the table.” - Dr. Philip Klotzbach

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Sandy, Katrina, Dennis—these are the names of catastrophic storms that devastated millions of people and left billions of dollars in damages.

Hurricanes are sure to happen, but how can our increasing knowledge and advancing technologies help us better predict their behaviors?

On today’s episode of FNO: InsureTech—we are joined by Dr. Philip Klotzbach to discuss all things related to hurricanes.  Phil Klotzbach is a Research Scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, and among many achievements—he developed the two-week forecasts currently being issued during the peak months of the hurricane season between August-October. He has published over two dozen articles in peer-reviewed journals such as Journal of Climate and Weather and Forecasting.

Tune in to this episode to hear Dr. Philip Klotzbach’s insights, so you can better understand the trends and science of hurricanes.

“With forecasting, you learn a lot more when you bust than when you have a good forecast.” - Dr. Philip Klotzbach

(click to tweet)

The FNO: Tips

• Large-scale signals in the atmosphere and in the ocean can predict hurricanes
• El Niño is warmer than normal temperature in the central/tropical Pacific
• The higher damage done by hurricanes is largely because more people are living on the coast
• Due to technological inadequacies, much of the storm-tracking data from the past isn’t reliable
• Tropical cyclones’ primary fuel source is warm ocean water, whereas mid-latitude cyclones thrive off the gradient of temperature
• Especially in the Gulf of Mexico, hurricane storms can appear out of nowhere
• The number of systems coming off the coast of Africa doesn’t change year-to-year (around 60-70)
• The more southern the storm is coming off Africa, the worse the damage will be
• Vegetation in the chaparral climate is designed to burn

Resources

• National Hurricane Center
• Seasonal Hurricane Predictions
• Tropical Tidbits

 

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