July 17, 2025

Ep. 181: Israeli military analyst: What the generals got horribly wrong

1 hour 3 minutes

With talk of a U.S.-brokered cease-fire/hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas in the news, JNS editor-in-chief Jonathan Tobin is asking whether the proposed agreement will allow the terrorists to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Israel’s two main goals of the post-Oct. 7 war—freedom for the hostages and the eradication of Hamas—are still mutually exclusive. He says it remains to be seen whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can insist on the sort of tough terms that will ensure that the Jewish state’s security isn’t compromised by an agreement that lets the terrorists survive the war they started with unspeakable atrocities.

He’s joined by Israeli military analyst Elliot Chodoff who says that after 22 months of fighting, the Israel Defense Forces are exhausted and are ready for a break in the fighting against Hamas in order to rest and refit its units. He also says that although the terrorist group is not wiped out, the IDF has “smashed” its military formations and capability. What is left are guerilla forces that harass Israeli soldiers and is what he calls the “thug” level, in which operatives of the Islamist group intimidate the population of the Gaza Strip. Those thugs will likely prevent the creation of a planned “humanitarian city” in the southern sector of Gaza as well as any hope of realizing President Donald Trump’s idea of turning the area into a resort.

Chapters

00:00 Ceasefire Negotiations and Hamas's Future

02:53 IDF's Achievements and Costs of War

05:59 Political Dynamics and Military Strategy

08:43 Challenges of Urban Warfare and Guerrilla Tactics

11:46 Economic Implications of Prolonged Conflict

27:15 Taxation and Economic Challenges in Israel

29:35 IDF's Mistakes and Successes: A Critical Analysis

33:39 Intelligence Failures: Understanding the October 7th Attack

38:31 Iran's Strategic Position and Future Threats

50:32 Syria's Role and the Future of Israeli Relations

53:02 The Abraham Accords: Prospects for Saudi Recognition