Confidence is essential in business, but unchecked overconfidence? That’s where things fall apart.

Don Moore, a leading expert on decision science, breaks down why most people—especially successful ones—tend to be too sure of themselves in areas they know little about. We dig into why business owners struggle to evaluate risk, why past wins can make you blind to future mistakes, and how probabilistic thinking can keep you from making overconfident (and expensive) decisions.

KEY TOPICS

• How the sunk cost fallacy keeps business owners stuck in failing ventures.
• How market predictions based on ‘gut feeling’ often backfire.
• What AI reveals about human overconfidence.
• Why your biggest blind spots exist in areas where you think you’re most knowledgeable.

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CHAPTERS

00:00 – Intro: Defeating bad decision-making in life & business

02:00 – Why new parents are overconfident

05:30 – The Dunning-Kruger effect in parenting and beyond

07:40 – What is over-precision, and why does it matter?

12:20 – The dangers of overconfidence in business and investing

16:55 – Why successful people struggle with decision-making

19:20 – The power of having language for decision-making biases

21:45 – How thinking in probabilities leads to better choices

24:05 – Market predictions, uncertainty, and decision paralysis

26:20 – How hobbies and competition keep us humble

28:50 – The behaviors that make people more (or less) overconfident

31:05 – The surprising gift of criticism

33:25 – Parenting, teenage rebellion, and overconfidence

36:50 – Overconfidence in parenting decisions

39:10 – Avoiding regret and learning from imperfect decisions

41:20 – Why most people misinterpret their financial wins

43:45 – Is AI overconfident? The risk of machine-generated certainty

46:00 – The problem with certainty in AI, investing, and life

48:30 – Why demanding 100% certainty keeps you stuck

50:30 – What Sanger has learned from hosting Decidedly

55:10 – The importance of embracing uncertainty in business and life

57:35 – Don’s top decision-making tip for business owners

57:47 – Where to connect with Don Moore

58:16 – Key Takeaways

59:29 – Message from the Producer

CONNECT WITH US

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Thank you to Shelby Peterson of Transcend Media for editing and post-production of the Decidedly podcast.

SANGER’S BOOK:⁠A Life Rich with Significance: Transforming Your Wealth to Meaningful Impact⁠

SHAWN’S BOOK: ⁠Plateau Jumping: What to Change When Change Is What You Want⁠

MAKING A FINANCIAL DECISION?

At ⁠Decidedly Wealth Management⁠, we focus on decision-making as the foundational element of success, in our effort to empower families to purposefully apply their wealth to fulfill their values and build a thriving legacy. 

LEARN MORE: ⁠www.decidedlywealth.com⁠

CONNECT WITH DON MOORE

Don’s Faculty Website: https://haas.berkeley.edu/faculty/moore-don/ 

Don’s Lab Website: https://learnmoore.org/ 

X: @donandrewmoore 

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/don-moore-01725b/ 

Books: https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B083M5M6X4/allbooks?ingress=0&visitId=54bc4249-8552-4de4-bbed-b4ac6d41d5ec&ref_=ap_rdr  

Don Moore holds the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership at the Haas School of Business at the University of California at Berkeley. His research interests include overconfidence, including when people think they are better than they actually are, when people think they are better than others, and when they are too sure they know the truth.  He is only occasionally overconfident. 

Expertise and Research Interests 

• Ethical Choice 
• Decision-Making 
• Overconfidence 
• Negotiation