The political landscape in Albuquerque has reached a fascinating tipping point, as revealed by exclusive polling data that might just predict the outcome of the upcoming mayoral race. The numbers tell a compelling story: incumbent Mayor Tim Keller faces serious headwinds with his unfavorability at 52% and a striking 60% of voters saying it's time for someone new.

Crime and homelessness dominate voter concerns, together capturing over 60% of what residents identify as their top issues. Despite this, the race has become increasingly nationalized, setting up what might be the most consequential dynamic of the election – will voters prioritize their frustrations with local leadership, or will their feelings about Donald Trump ultimately determine their choice?

The polling creates a fascinating tension. While Keller leads with 34% support to challenger Darren White's 21%, the high undecided number (30%) suggests significant voter uncertainty. What makes this particularly intriguing is the direct comparison between Trump's 62% unfavorability in Albuquerque and Keller's 60% "time for someone new" rating. This sets up an election that transcends typical local politics, becoming instead a test case for whether voters can separate their national partisan loyalties from their local concerns.

Additional polling for the New Mexico governor's race shows Secretary Deb Haaland with a commanding lead among Democrats, even winning moderate Democrats by a significant margin. This reflects national polling trends highlighted by Harry Enten showing socialism's growing popularity within the Democratic Party – a jump from +7 points in 2010 to +36 points today, helping explain why progressive candidates often outperform expectations in primaries.

For political observers watching these races unfold, the central question becomes whether New Mexico voters will prioritize local issues like crime and homelessness or vote based on national partisan identities. The answer could reshape politics in the state for years to come. Follow our coverage as we continue tracking the numbers that matter most in determining who will lead Albuquerque and New Mexico into the future.

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