Hi everyone. I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode, will have Chaz Naticom back on and I'm really excited to have him because this is the first time we can hear from him after State Navigate has launched its forecast for the Virginia Elections and we're going to get into all those details.

00:20.41

Sam Shirazi

So Chaz, thank you for joining me and could you let us know what's the latest with State Navigate and what you have coming down the pipeline?

00:28.90

Chaz Nuttycombe

Hey, Sam. ah for Yeah, first off, thanks for having me back on. i i think your podcast is the one I am listening to listening to the most right now.

00:39.41

Chaz Nuttycombe

so ah ah Pretty much no surprise, I think, to anyone who knows me since I'm a little bit of a workaholic and nerd. But yeah, it's it's been a minute. i don't think I've come on since the... Just about the primary, maybe just before the primary or right after.

00:52.97

Chaz Nuttycombe

And yeah, we we've done a lot since then. Obviously, elephant in the room. And this is kind of why I'm on is we had our forecast launch. had a fundraiser where people were able to see it privately at the end of June. And then about a month later, July 28th, we released the forecast for the House of Delegates.

01:09.14

Chaz Nuttycombe

governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general races. We also, last month in August, we got out a launch in Utah at State Navigate.

01:19.70

Chaz Nuttycombe

And we also finished up our pretty much full framework of the state, which is South Carolina. We call this part the legislature side, just legislature content, which is like you know a profile legislature, a legislator,

01:32.09

Chaz Nuttycombe

How long have they been in there? Where are they ideologically on both the second and first dimensions that W nominate? bills did they introduce and co-sponsored? What committees do they serve on?

01:43.16

Chaz Nuttycombe

That sort of thing. So that and, you know, when it comes to some stuff that I think is relevant for your Virginia audiences that we have coming out really soon, I think like maybe this week or the next at some point this month, let's say that have Virginia W nominate, which I'm really excited about.

02:02.97

Chaz Nuttycombe

You know, ah ah Virginia W nominate or just W nominate for those who don't know it is using legislators voting records to figure out where they are, where they are ideologically in their chamber.

02:14.47

Chaz Nuttycombe

And, Virginia has been proven to be a difficult state. Charlie Kramer, our data science chair, has been working hard at it. and And the reason why it's difficult is because, you know, in 2025, they did this overhaul the LIS.

02:27.71

Chaz Nuttycombe

And we have to, you know, make sure that don't have any errors. we have to clean up the data a little bit, get in a, you know, uniform format. But that should finally be out at some point pretty soon so that, you know, before people go and vote, hopefully before they go and vote, early voting starts on September 19th, that they can figure out, well, is my delegate extreme? Are they moderate?

02:51.69

Chaz Nuttycombe

Are they, you know, just a team player? Right. So we have that coming out. We also ah very soon have Virginia statewide campaign finance coming out. So you're able to see the totals for each statewide candidate, what they've raised.

03:06.14

Chaz Nuttycombe

You're able to see their website and their picture and able to see the list of their received donations. That's coming out. I don't think we're going to be doing a district summary kind of thing like we do for the legislative districts because, um you know, there's one, there's no general election data yet.

03:22.37

Chaz Nuttycombe

And then the other thing is a big feature. this is pretty much final part of what we call phase two of development are the data downloads. So currently on our site, you're able to just, you know, view all this treasure trove of of data on these states.

03:37.45

Chaz Nuttycombe

But soon enough, you're going to be able to actually download it if you want to you know play around with it, use it for your own purposes. Right. My modus operandi is that data is right and not a privilege.

03:52.60

Chaz Nuttycombe

You know, I think that a lot of professionals who, you know, in politics and and lobbying will pay thousands and thousands and thousands of dollars to these, you know, data groups and think tanks, whatever, will have this data on state legislate, state legislatures and state legislators.

04:11.06

Chaz Nuttycombe

and But the you know average Joe does not have access to this data, right? How and you know all demographics, campaign finance, ideology, I mean, you know all that sort of thing is and is unbeknownst to them.

04:26.65

Chaz Nuttycombe

So that's one of the things that we have coming out. And that will include whatever data we have out for Virginia at the time, um which should also include WNOMINATE. so I'm really excited about that.

04:37.50

Chaz Nuttycombe

you know, that's one of the things we've been planning to do all along, uh, and it will be updated regularly for each state. so, uh, and then we have, you know, some other things coming out for Virginia, uh, navigate as we call it, over the next, uh, several weeks throughout the campaign. And, uh, you know, I'm sure I'll be on again. I would love to come on again and, uh,

04:59.50

Chaz Nuttycombe

you know, let your audience know about them. But I would just say to your audience, check state navigate every day, subscribe to our newsletter. You can do that on our homepage and keep up to date with everything that we're working on, including for Virginia and beyond.

05:12.72

Chaz Nuttycombe

So, yeah.

05:13.65

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, well, thanks so much for that overview and and really for putting together State Navigate because I know it's a lot of work and it's just such a cool website. i mean, you can go and look at all the different districts.

05:25.34

Sam Shirazi

You can look at the forecast and we'll get into the forecast because it's it's really impressive. And, you know, this type of work, it's just, I know it's a lot of work. So I really appreciate that you've taken the time do it.

05:36.90

Chaz Nuttycombe

i'm I'm very fortunate. You know, i think that a lot of people, at least maybe a few years ago, thought that I was just like doing C analysis myself.

05:47.37

Chaz Nuttycombe

But I work with a very talented team. I have a board of directors. have a committee. Pretty much every, especially member of staff. And I would say Charlie Kramer as well.

05:59.56

Chaz Nuttycombe

and Alan Zhang are just day in, day out working on this, man. I mean, we are we are, pardon my French, working our asses off because we we care about this level of government and and trying to do it from a nonpartisan approach and just you know putting every bit of data out in the open.

06:21.58

Chaz Nuttycombe

And i am very thankful to God for blessing me with being able to have met every single member of the State Navigate team on all levels.

06:33.21

Sam Shirazi

Well, that I will say the the proof is in the pudding because the the forecast is very comprehensive and that's great to hear that you're you're able to do such good work. So without further ado, I will get into the forecast.

06:46.42

Sam Shirazi

I wanted to spend most of the time in the House of Delegates because I think some of those races are really interesting. But obviously we have to go over the statewide forecast. races So I will just give you the current forecast on your website. I mean, obviously, it changes as new polls and other things come in.

07:02.94

Sam Shirazi

But currently for governor, you have a 97% chance that Abigail Spanberger will win, which is, you know, obviously pretty high. Lieutenant Governor, you have a 90% chance that Ghazal Hashmi will win.

07:14.67

Sam Shirazi

And then for Attorney General, you have a 91% chance that Jay Jones will win. mean, why do you think that there is such a high chance that the Democrats are going to win these races right now?

07:25.15

Chaz Nuttycombe

I mean, we can we're we're both students of Virginia history. We know how these gubernatorial elections go. Right. um And we we And we we all know or yeah I don't think you need a political science degree to know about.

07:39.38

Chaz Nuttycombe

Thermostatic public opinion, which is, you know, oh, the incumbent party in the White House is bad. I need to move to the left or I need to move to the right, depending on the party.

07:47.63

Chaz Nuttycombe

on, on every single issue. Right. um Right. um So I think that there's a lot of discourse on like, you know, they're, they're, they're, they're Republican campaign. There is, it's not coordinated. And you know, ah ah there's the, the pictures of ah winsome Sears and and John Reed, they aren't holding hands. They aren't hugging or anything.

08:09.27

Chaz Nuttycombe

like that, right? ah ah That's not why they're, they are underdogs in the very least reason why they're underdogs is because Donald Trump is in the white house and Virginia voted for Kamala Harris, uh, by about six points in a r plus one or R plus two year.

08:23.07

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. so, I mean, we can, yes, we can talk about, I think that, That's not to say that I i don't think that campaign ah ah savviness and and fundraising and all that doesn't make a difference. Right.

08:38.85

Chaz Nuttycombe

But at the end of the day, it was carrying most of the weight is that Trump's approval is underwater in a state that voted over for Kamala Harris by six points last year. I think another reason, you know, that and this is one lessons that I and many other forecasters learned in 2024 is that, you know, a lot of the Republican base comes out for these presidential years and they don't come out for these off year elections increasingly.

09:01.04

Chaz Nuttycombe

And so even though that, you know, Donald Trump's approval is better little bit than it was in 2017 at this point.

09:11.12

Chaz Nuttycombe

that, you know, we have, uh, Abigail Spanberger heavily favored. and you know, in, in the LG race and AG race, they're running a few points behind, Jay Jones and Gizal Haashmi running a few points behind Spanberger's margin.

09:24.16

Chaz Nuttycombe

I, I think that, you know, at the end of the day, it is just because Trump is in the white house. so yeah, I, I, I think that's really all it is.

09:36.26

Chaz Nuttycombe

I don't think you need to dig dig dig that deep in.

09:36.52

Sam Shirazi

yeah

09:39.52

Sam Shirazi

Well, yeah I did want to ask, before we get to House Delegates races, because I did want to cover all those, I did have one kind of big picture question about the model or the forecast, because you talk about the kind of fact that Donald Trump's in the White House and that makes sense.

09:55.10

Sam Shirazi

How does the model or the forecast account for that? I mean, is that a metric or is it more you're taking into account presidential approval?

10:02.50

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, so we so we use ah quite a bit of and quite a bit of things in the gubernatorial model. And you know this is mainly a quantitative model. I actually don't really have any control over or really much input on like the statewide margin. My co-forecaster and our development director, um Jack Kirsting,

10:23.63

Chaz Nuttycombe

you know, is I would say pretty much our our lead forecaster. um do a lot of work on the house or House side or state legislature side. I don't really do much on the statewide side, but they are, you know, obviously highly correlated to one another.

10:37.43

Chaz Nuttycombe

so it does use presidential approval. Um, then Jack has a, economic index. I recall everything that's in there correctly, it's changes in the stock market. It is, changes in unemployment.

10:50.95

Chaz Nuttycombe

it is changes in, uh, inflation. inflation. ah and so we go back, I believe it's either 2001 or 2005 to look at the correlation and, and weigh everything properly.

11:04.65

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. at the end of the day, like, again, I mean, it's it's just presidential approval has a very high, statistically high P value in predicting who's going to win the Virginia gubernatorial election.

11:16.23

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. Voters are very reactive, especially here in the Commonwealth. So, you know, Trump had, he was up like what, 10 points at approval. and now he's down at least five, six, something like that in the average. Right.

11:28.37

Chaz Nuttycombe

that's like almost 20 point drop in approval, right? if we're rounding. So, oh you know, we, we use that. And, you know, obviously election results as well, recent election results in you know relation the nation.

11:43.98

Chaz Nuttycombe

So, yeah, that's that's how the statewide stuff works. You can go to our website and you can go to our 2025 forecast methodology. We talk about the state legislature side. We talk about statewide side.

11:57.05

Chaz Nuttycombe

Jack and I wrote that piece. you want to, you know, dig more into the weeds on it.

12:01.62

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, I mean, I i think it's it's just really impressive to have a model like this. So I really appreciate that you've done it. And, you know, I would say most people are probably interested in the statewide offices because they you know are not necessarily living and breathing Virginia politics.

12:16.72

Sam Shirazi

But people like you and me who are much more political nerds, I think the House of Delegates is just super interesting. And and these races, particularly because the Republicans are on defense so much and they're just...

12:28.69

Sam Shirazi

Incumbents who have to, you know really try to survive in this environment. So I wanted to go through the races in the House of Delegates. I'm going to focus on the Republican held seats that are at most risk because realistically, I think most of the Democratic seats are almost certainly going to be safe.

12:47.100

Sam Shirazi

So I'll start kind of the seats most likely to flip to least likely to flip according to your forecast. And we'll try to you know go through each district and kind of hit the highlights in some of these races. So I will start off in House District 57, which is in the Richmond suburbs in Western Henrico.

13:08.04

Sam Shirazi

This is the Republican seat that you think is most likely to flip. The incumbent is David Owen. and you say there's an 88% chance that he will lose.

13:18.90

Sam Shirazi

Chaz, is there anything that the Republicans can do to save this seat?

13:22.82

Chaz Nuttycombe

I mean, there's a 12% chance. I mean, look, somebody's got photos Abigail Spanberger in blackface or are doing something crazy. Sure. know, I keep bringing up like the blackface thing because it's just, you know, Ralph Northam. is It's always on my mind of like, you know, OK, what's an example of a Democrat doing something that can change, change the outcome of of an election?

13:44.11

Chaz Nuttycombe

Not that it really did in 2019, but I think it's because it happened in February instead of November. or October. But yeah, look, think so. I've been doing the house forecast side or house forecast stuff for eight years now. As of last August, I'm just kind of crazy to think about. It's been that long.

14:04.04

Chaz Nuttycombe

And I think there's really been like really good comparisons with these two gubernatorial elections in 2017, 2021, even though they were very, very different environments, right? Northam winning by nine, Yonkong winning by two,

14:17.72

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. Eleven point Delta there is that, you know, when you have these kind of wave elections, there is always one guy at least or one legislator, I should say, excuse me, who's like nearly DOA or like pretty much an underdog throughout the campaign.

14:35.87

Chaz Nuttycombe

and I think in 2017, you had quite a few of those examples. I think Jim Lemonyon was one of them. I think tag Greeson was one of them. would even say Bob Marshall was one of them, even though, the time Danica Roam, you know, first time I met Danica Rome, she disagreed.

14:50.17

Chaz Nuttycombe

then, you know, because we had it as like solid or likely, and then she, you know, she was saying, well, it's a toss up. And then, you know, she ended up winning by like what, eight, nine, something like that.

15:01.22

Chaz Nuttycombe

you pretty much have these seats that are just like, okay, we, we know this is going to flip, right? for Both parties know it's going to flip. Um, Republic and this is that seat, right in 2021, equivalent would be like Ross Tyler, right? Who barely won reelection,

15:16.50

Chaz Nuttycombe

2019, which is a very friend friendly Democratic environment, Democrats very much struggle in turning out rural black voters. This is a district that is moving to the right or was moving to the right. It's no longer there. It's represented by Otto Washman, the equivalent of it, won that seat in 2021 after nearly losing to Tyler in 2019.

15:34.90

Chaz Nuttycombe

So I think this is that kind of district to where it's like, this is a gimme for the Democrats. They don't have to do much there. And you can see that in main of our the democratic nominees campaign, right? I think that Democrats are in Virginia, not really running so much of an anti Trump campaign as much as they were in 2017, right? Every single,

15:54.14

Chaz Nuttycombe

advertisement and and messaging in 2017 was Trump bad, Trump bad, Trump bad. I think you had a little bit on, you know, ah ah Medicaid expansion. I think that was one thing they really won on that year.

16:04.26

Chaz Nuttycombe

I don't think you really see as much of that. I think Democrats are trying to ah ah remedy the mistakes of that they made last year and actually, you know, run more on substantive issues compared to just Donald Trump is bad.

16:20.57

Chaz Nuttycombe

But this is the one district to where it's like you can do that and get away with it. And you can see that in Navarre's advertisements, right? She just had an advertisement that was literally just, so you know, saying that David Owen is Donald Trump's henchman or whatever, right?

16:35.62

Chaz Nuttycombe

This is a district that has been moving left and left and left, you know, throughout the course of since I've been predicting elections. Right. Henrico has been a major pain point for Republicans to the point where they are not doing pretty much anything this year. Right. The statewide campaign is not really looking much there.

16:54.10

Chaz Nuttycombe

John Reed. Yeah, sure. You can see a sign all over the Western Western Henrico because that's where his father represented. That's where he's from. Right. But, you know, they're they're mainly looking at like where their bases are.

17:05.44

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. Let's let's go back to let's go back to 2017 and work our way forward. 2017 after, you know, you had some of these districts that flip from Romney to Clinton.

17:14.92

Chaz Nuttycombe

had Skyler and Volgenberg winning the open seat that was represented by Jimmy Massey. You had, you John O'Bannon losing to Deborah Rodman, which was an upset. You had Don Adams beating Manoli Lupasi, which was an upset, right? And these are all districts that had portions of Henrico that flipped in 2017.

17:32.25

Chaz Nuttycombe

2018, obviously, Abigail Spanberger flips against that district against ah dave Dave Bratt. 2019 is like the only year where like Republicans won something in Henrico, truly, I would say, which is Siobhan Donovan winning re-election against... Debra Rodman in a little bit of an upset.

17:49.92

Chaz Nuttycombe

They weren't able to flip, though, that House delegate seat that Rodney that was open, that Rodman represented, that Rodney Willett won, which in 2021, right, they targeted that seat again. they got the same recruit because she nearly lost Mary Margaret Castleberg.

18:03.73

Chaz Nuttycombe

And, you know, she tried to flip that seat again. And i I had that seat flipping in that forecast that year because it looked like it was going to be the district that would flip when you looked at where the map was, right? Because it looked like Glenn Youngkin was going to win and there would probably be like a 52 to 48 House of Delegates for the Republicans, which is what our forecast had. it just via a different path, right? When he got itis won and...

18:29.33

Chaz Nuttycombe

Rodney Willett won and then LaSharice Aird lost and I'm forgetting her name. Martha Muggler lost. And then 2023 happens and David Owen pretty much just lucked out, right?

18:43.79

Chaz Nuttycombe

there's never been something like, you know, what happened with his opponent in in my years, at least of looking at elections. And so, you know, we can, people can have an opinion. i think it's fine to have an opinion and debate about like,

18:59.72

Chaz Nuttycombe

You know, was it man made? Was it just the Democratic leadership? Because, you know, David Owen barely won. He won by like two points. Was it Democratic leadership's fault for tri triaging that race?

19:12.02

Chaz Nuttycombe

Or was it, you know, the Democratic candidates fault? Right. So he lucked out against an opponent that got triaged.

19:21.90

Chaz Nuttycombe

And now he's up against an opponent that is running the bare minimum campaign needed to win. And also the other thing here is that this is Abigail Spanberger's home district, right?

19:33.47

Chaz Nuttycombe

I would be surprised if she won this district by anything less than 15 points. I think he's probably going to win it closer to 20 points, even on a good night for the Republicans. This is going to be a very difficult district for them.

19:45.46

Chaz Nuttycombe

so, and David Owen doesn't have like a super moderate voting record. If you actually look at his voting record, right? Like Kerry corner has a pretty moderate voting record. He's a little bit to the right of Kerry corner. I think if he was voting, you know, to the left of Kerry corner and actually in line with it the partisan lane of district and the direction it's moving in, then yeah, this could be a race that is, you know, highly competitive or at least somewhat competitive, but this is pretty near guinea for the Dems.

20:11.26

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, I mean, I think if if there's seats flipping, this is certainly the first seat that's going to flip. So i think you make some good points. I did want to talk the next district, which is a very different district.

20:21.62

Sam Shirazi

It is House District 82. The current incumbent is Republican Kim Taylor. This is Petersburg and then some rural areas around Petersburg. You have it at a 79% chance of flipping.

20:33.33

Sam Shirazi

I guess the specific question about this district, because there is a high black population here, the Democratic bases are black voters. I mean, do you take that into account? Because Harris did win this district in 2024, but I think there's a possibility the turnout could be lower this year and that in an upset, Kim Taylor might be able to survive.

20:52.56

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, I think that's fair. I don't necessarily disagree with that. I mean, look, both both parties know that the Achilles heel for Abigail Spanberger is their standing with black voters. Right.

21:07.56

Chaz Nuttycombe

And ah ah you look at her electoral record, go back to her 2018 primary and look where she performed the worst outside of, you know, where her opponent, Dan Ward, if I recall his name, you know, he won his home base.

21:20.64

Chaz Nuttycombe

But then he performed pretty well in, you know, heavily black areas. Right. And then you go to 2022 and you look at compared to the environment that year and and whatnot. She performed pretty poorly with black voters in Prince William.

21:35.02

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. Her whole shtick, her whole strategy is just absolute Assad margins with college white educated suburban voters that are affluent.

21:48.34

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. Not just in Henrico. She did that in Spotsy, right? Spotsylvania. That was part of her victory as well. So. I it's just and she just doesn't have an appealing profile, I think, is part of why she's ah done poorly with black voters in the past. Right.

22:05.56

Chaz Nuttycombe

She's pretty much the epitome of like where where Democrats have made gains over the Trump presidency Trump era, let's say, you know, going back to 2016. um Right.

22:15.52

Chaz Nuttycombe

White, affluent woman, college educated, lived in California for a little bit. Now she's moved back home, who is from like a a short pump, Virginia, you know, to the point of where like you have Glenn Sturdivant.

22:30.86

Chaz Nuttycombe

Republican center from Chesterfield saying don't short pump my Chesterfield. Right. um So it's like the epitome of like where Democrats are making gains no matter the environment.

22:43.37

Chaz Nuttycombe

So and and then, you know, there is something about just Democrats not doing well with being able to get out black voters south of the Appomattox River. I think that's the big divide. And I wrote a little bit about that and what I call the curse of hope. Well, for House District 75, which you get to in a bit.

23:02.06

Chaz Nuttycombe

I think that Pope Adams is an OK candidate who I think can win. You know, our forecast has her winning. I think that if there is a path to victory for Taylor, who, yes, you know, we only give her a 21 percent chance of winning.

23:18.04

Chaz Nuttycombe

It's going to be Abigail Spanberger's fault. in not being able to get out black voters. And the thing about this district, uh, is that it's not a matter of like who turns out more right on like, you know, partisan base, it's a matter of who turns out less, right?

23:33.76

Chaz Nuttycombe

this is, you don't really have many college educated voters here. and you have like, uh, you know, very low prop voters on for rural whites and, you know, black voters in Petersburg and like, you know, just outside of Petersburg and Dinwiddie.

23:52.94

Chaz Nuttycombe

And then another thing that I think is worth mentioning, Sam, that, you know, I've i've mentioned I may write about this later. I think I may just write on it until like after the election to actually use the latest election results may as well.

24:05.57

Chaz Nuttycombe

But this actually may be a violation of this district, a violation of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, meaning that is it is a legal racial gerrymander.

24:15.86

Chaz Nuttycombe

I'm not saying that's my opinion. I'm saying that the you, that there could be a lawsuit, you know, uh, to buy 20, 29 redraw district, to where would create a safe Republican and a safe democratic district.

24:29.16

Chaz Nuttycombe

Uh, and I think it's really going to shake out depending on who wins these, this C and then house district 75. Right. and, and the reason why I think that there's a strong legal argument,

24:40.20

Chaz Nuttycombe

is is for several reasons. One, um know, in the jingles test, has to be, you know, like community of interest a cohesive racial group that has political preference, which obviously black voters are in pretty much most places in America, but especially South side.

24:55.62

Chaz Nuttycombe

south the Appomattox River, I should say, where it's very racially polarized. And this is the other thing, right? I think House of Sisters 82 is only plurality black. And what you could do is you could draw district where as part of that you know, prong of the Jingles test under the RAS to, you draw a district that's just Petersburg and Hopewell, right? Everybody talks about the tri cities areas, tri cities area, right? Which is Petersburg, Hopewell, and then, colonial Heights, right?

25:24.16

Chaz Nuttycombe

colonial Heights is, you know, a white flight city or white flight, pretty much Richmond suburb. That is an independent city. And so I think it's going to depend. And it's not to say that Democrats are going to sue. You could see Republicans sue, right?

25:38.60

Chaz Nuttycombe

Like in, in Wisconsin, is a very smart strategy done by the speaker of the Wisconsin, Wisconsin assembly, Robin Voss, after the state Supreme court signed off on governor Evers map that he appealed Voss or, you know, his, his cohorts did to this U S Supreme court that the map was not compliant with the ah VRA S2.

26:05.25

Chaz Nuttycombe

And so they got a better map out of that. So like if both of these seats flip, which our forecast has 75 75 is a little bit harder for the Democrats.

26:15.70

Chaz Nuttycombe

if both of these seats flip, you could see the Republicans actually suing because then they gain a seat. Right. So I think that's something to watch over the course of the remaining of the decade, no matter how this seat goes. And it's tied to House District 75 as well.

26:31.82

Chaz Nuttycombe

so, you know, this, this district again is, is plurality black and not only again with the cohesiveness and whatnot of communities of interest, but when you have such levels of po racial polarization, right, pretty much every black voters, Democrat, every white, uh, voter is a Republican. There is his, you know, you can look back at Virginia election maps in Virginia history, and this is a area to where, you know, desegregation was, or sorry, segregation was,

26:58.85

Chaz Nuttycombe

was very popular amongst white voters, right? And that's why you can't just draw like a plurality black district in Alabama or like even just like 51, 52% black a lot of cases, right?

27:10.80

Chaz Nuttycombe

It has to be a certain percentage African-American. And you can draw a district that is that allows for black voters in this community of interest in this area who have a political preference to draw the, you know, to, to be able to vote in a member of their group, a member of their political preference and choice by uniting Petersburg and Hopewell.

27:35.91

Chaz Nuttycombe

And I know why there were special masters, you know, took the, you know, put the map in this position. It's to, you know, make a map that was fair on a partisan balance, a statewide balance that is as to the T having ah ah a small enough mean median difference, which is, you know, what a lot of people do to figure out is is a map of gerrymander is a map fair.

27:59.92

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. maybe some cases you use the efficiency gap that was invented, you know, almost 10 years ago. so they, they did that, because, you know, has district 82 did vote for Yunkin, right? They need to create another Yunkin district. And the same thing was 75.

28:13.99

Chaz Nuttycombe

there wouldn't have been enough, uh, partisan balance on the map had they actually united the district. So I think this is something that we should be looking for in the next couple of years. And the question is like, is there a lawsuit and if who, who's suing the Dems or the Republicans?

28:26.82

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um,

28:27.47

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, well, it's certainly going to be interesting to see how it shakes out. And I agree with you. I think district and the 75th district, which we'll get to, I think are going to be really interesting when the final results come in. Before we get to 75th, I did want to go to a couple, few to other districts that are more likely to flip.

28:43.22

Sam Shirazi

So I will go to House District 89, which is an open seat in Hampton Roads. You say that the Democrats have a 73% chance of winning it, or your your forecast says that. I guess the question I had, this is a little bit of a more working class suburb in Hampton Roads.

28:59.76

Sam Shirazi

Could you see a scenario where you know Democrats are doing well in more like highly highly educated, wealthier suburbs, but maybe in working class suburbs like this struggling more?

29:08.32

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, I mean, here's a thing, right? I mean, 82 is very working class, right? It's full of black working class and white working class voters. and But this district still moved to the left on the presidential level just a little bit, if I recall correctly.

29:21.24

Chaz Nuttycombe

It is 28% black, but the issue is that Republicans are bleeding support in the traditionally Republican parts in Chesapeake City in this district.

29:30.40

Chaz Nuttycombe

But you still have quite a bit of ah ah black voters in this district to where if Spanberger is struggling, then yeah, this could be a Republican hold. I think one of the issues here, I noted this way back in like maybe somewhere between like February to April, is that The Republicans got a bad recruit here because they nominated a former ICE officer.

29:52.48

Chaz Nuttycombe

And again, who could have possibly predicted that thermostatic opinion wouldn't go away? Right. Voters are moving much more liberally on immigration as the Trump administration has implemented their policies.

30:05.80

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. ah ah Machiavelli once said the people are fickle. So. and they nominated, the Republicans did, they, they nominated uh, someone for this swing district, with an agency that is at the forefront of the immigration conversation. is,

30:27.88

Chaz Nuttycombe

A very salient issue. And that is losing a lot of support from voters as well. So that's kind of one of the things right now at the time when the Republicans nominated him, um you know, you know, immigration was not moving as much to the left as it has been over the last several months.

30:47.82

Chaz Nuttycombe

But it was not a forward thinking decision to, you know, how went once the sea opened up to get a like ice officer in there, probably their best potential recruit would obviously be like military, right? The Samson roads.

31:04.20

Chaz Nuttycombe

get someone from like Chesapeake and you know, that like was in the Navy or something. Right. But they weren't able to recruit. uh, someone with that profile. So they went with ice officer. I think they, bit off more than they can chew on the immigration issue.

31:19.20

Chaz Nuttycombe

yeah, I mean, this, this district that moved a little bit to the left, you know, it's a democratic tilting district. you know, I, I'm not really have, I don't have much others else to say on that race. Other than that it is the third, most likely then pick up,

31:35.35

Chaz Nuttycombe

You know, Dems are, but you know, I've seen 73% chances, which is what we could, know, our forecast gives the Dems go the other way plenty of times. So you could definite definitely see the seat holding for the Republicans.

31:50.35

Sam Shirazi

All right, well, let's talk about another Hampton Roads district. This is House District 71. The current incumbent is Republican Amanda Batten. You say that, or the forecast says the Democrats have a 73% chance also to flip this district.

32:04.29

Sam Shirazi

Chaz, do you think that having a strong incumbent like Amanda Batten makes a difference or and does your forecast take that into account at all?

32:11.62

Chaz Nuttycombe

i I don't know that I would call Amanda Batten a strong incumbent. mean, look, she's never run a competitive race and she ran against somebody who got triaged by the House Democratic Caucus and only won by what? 1.8, 1.9 percent, something like that. Right.

32:29.14

Chaz Nuttycombe

so not only that, but i yeah, I would say she's particularly weak incumbent. She has one of the most conservative voting records in the house of delegates, right? She's not like anywhere near where the rest of the kind of swing district members are.

32:44.22

Chaz Nuttycombe

And you can see this in W nominate for Virginia. Once we get it out, she's in the top 10, um, most conservative members of the house delegates, uh, that voting record, I think is, is probably going to bite her in the ass this November, with the electorate, uh, that's going to make up her district, right? This is a white college educated affluent district, that is moving to the left and very much, trended to the left, uh, last time.

33:11.33

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. so i think that's, I just don't think she's a strong incumbent. now what and Now, what I will say is that, right, you she's a a white blonde woman from the suburbs, right?

33:28.31

Chaz Nuttycombe

So that kind of... Profile like when you're a Republican right voters can take shortcuts and say oh it's it's a it's a white blonde woman from the suburbs she's she's a Republican but she's probably moderate right.

33:41.39

Chaz Nuttycombe

Some voters do that, but I think that the Dems have a lot of fodder to work with on our voting record. but you know, at the same time, you know, I mean, they the Democrats re-nominated the nominee that, uh, you know, they triage last time.

33:58.76

Chaz Nuttycombe

Uh, I think she's running, uh, Jessica Anderson. I think she's running a stronger campaign, more serious campaign than last time. and you know, yeah, she's, she has about the same, odds of winning in houses or 89,

34:13.72

Chaz Nuttycombe

I can see Amanda Batten winning. and I think if it is, it's because of ticket split voters. and i think the Republicans also have a lot to work with, vice, couldn you know, vice versa, uh, with, uh, you know, Anderson, because of, you know, this various videos and and stuff from social media that she had, she's a big TikTok star, right?

34:36.33

Chaz Nuttycombe

she has millions of views on TikTok. and. you know, the Republicans are probably going to use it in advertising and whatnot, which, you know, I would be astonished if they didn't, because they need to drive her negatives down.

34:49.43

Chaz Nuttycombe

sorry, they need to drive her negatives up. Excuse me. So it's it's just going to I think both of them have liabilities as nominees and both parties are going to exploit that in the general.

35:02.88

Chaz Nuttycombe

So there's a little bit of a chance, but I would be kind of surprised if Batten won and unless there is a much more Republican environment than, you know, what polls in our in our forecast and everything else shows that there likely is.

35:17.99

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, well, I mean, I think that's a fair correction to me. I mean, i think the Republicans perceive her as a strong incumbent. I think the question of whether she's a strong incumbent may be slightly different. And I guess we'll get the answer in November. I think if she's able to survive, then she's a strong incumbent. I think if she loses, probably...

35:34.74

Chaz Nuttycombe

you

35:35.19

Sam Shirazi

Not as strong. So we'll get the answer one way or another in November. Okay, let's move on to House District 22. This is in the D.C. suburbs in Nova, middle Prince William County. The current incumbent is Republican Lovejoy.

35:50.32

Sam Shirazi

Your forecast has the Democrat, Elizabeth Guzman, with a 64% chance of winning Chaz, do you think Elizabeth Guzman might be a little bit too progressive for this district? Or do you think in this type of environment, people just kind of vote straight ticket and the individual candidates don't matter as much?

36:07.17

Chaz Nuttycombe

I think that, I mean, yes, Elizabeth Guzman is very much a progressive, right? Uh, there's, there's no denying that. and And that could be one of the reasons if, if Lovejoy does win, which again, there's only a 64% chance he loses, right?

36:20.35

Chaz Nuttycombe

So there's very much room for an upset here. that's pretty much a tilt democratic race. I think that, uh, her progressive stances would be one of them. No, this district actually, unlike a lot of these swing districts, moved to the right. Right. It's part of Nova it's in Prince William County and it's affluent. It's white and affluent.

36:40.21

Chaz Nuttycombe

And it moved to the right in 2024. And I think part of it is because, you know, Nick Monarch, as I pronounce his name, Monarch or Minnick, however you pronounce his last name.

36:51.43

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. TV station up in Nova, you know, really honing in on, know, local government up there. You know, when you, when ah ah all politics is local, right?

37:05.19

Chaz Nuttycombe

I mean, there's, there's a really good example of like, you know, down ballot stuff or down ballot issues trickling up to the top. I think the, it's actually a very famous academic beef because people like these two academics wrote this paper on like, uh, something about shark attacks, uh, in presidential election hundred years ago, I think but Woodrow Wilson losing support or whatever because of shark attacks in the town of New Jersey.

37:29.68

Chaz Nuttycombe

But anyway, so yeah, I think if you look at the election results in 2023, I think you can see the same thing again with like Arlington, right? With, you know, the the pervert getting in in the high school swimming pool or whatever, or locker room, know, earlier in the year.

37:48.82

Chaz Nuttycombe

I think that the this could be a... um um um ah another Achilles heel for Democrats this year is that, you know, I think the main focus and the main driver right in 2017 was like, oh yeah, Nova's Nova's going to drive this big margin and Democrats are going to make a whole bunch of gains here.

38:05.11

Chaz Nuttycombe

And now it's really like Richmond, I would say, right? Because Richmond moved to left and Nova bolted hard to the right 2024. and twenty twenty four And part of that is demographics.

38:15.08

Chaz Nuttycombe

And so, you know, what is going to be interesting is, know, this is big issue 2023 data centers, right? In Prince William County. had a lot of rural areas that were really upset with the data centers that were being proposed by the local government.

38:28.45

Chaz Nuttycombe

And, you know, I think it'll be interesting to see if the Dems, Governor Youngkin just recently, you know, voices support for data centers. I could see the Dems taking that out of context and trying to tie Lovejoy to it, even though Lovejoy is anti-data center. Right. That was one thing he really ran against on in 2023.

38:46.85

Chaz Nuttycombe

And yeah, so i this is it's a tight it's a tight race. You know, i this is a district that very barely voted for Kamala Harris and and Tim Kaine.

38:58.70

Chaz Nuttycombe

and if I recall correctly, voted for the Republican candidates in the, in the U S house last last year. Um, I think, and love joy one by four in, in a D plus two environment. So, this is, this is going to be a tight race.

39:12.51

Chaz Nuttycombe

no matter, no matter who wins, I think.

39:14.69

Sam Shirazi

All right, well, let's go back to the Richmond area to House District 75. And the incumbent here is Carrie Conyer. She, coiner, I always get that wrong.

39:24.45

Chaz Nuttycombe

Pointer.

39:27.02

Sam Shirazi

So thank you. So you have in your forecast, the Democrats have a 63% chance of winning this district. However, it was a Harris plus six district. So why do you think ah ah she has a better chance of holding on even though the district on paper might be bluer than some of these other districts.

39:45.15

Chaz Nuttycombe

So I really recommend, i think one of the, the, my favorite articles I've written this year for state nav. not that I've written a lot, but, is, is the, dis is the, um, house house district 75 P piece, which is titled are Democrats hopeless and hope. Well,

40:02.36

Chaz Nuttycombe

And so this is this is what I call the curse of Hopewell. Hopewell, going back to like 2001, at least, has moved to the right, trended to the right, especially relative to the gubernatorial result.

40:17.28

Chaz Nuttycombe

I would say instead of swaying a trended heavily to the right in every single gubernatorial election compared to his previous presidential result going back to 2001. And part of it is because that Democrats are really poor at turning out black voters south of the Appomattox River.

40:35.40

Chaz Nuttycombe

Hopewell is a big part of this district. The other part is where Coiner is from, which is Chesterfield, which is another big supporter for base. And so, you know, they they just black voters, the Democratic base here just does not turn out.

40:49.95

Chaz Nuttycombe

They come out every four years. They don't in the gubernatorial, right? it was like Biden plus 15 in 2020 and then it voted for Glenn Young and barely. And then even in 2017, Ralph Northam barely won the city, right? I think that's something a lot of people memory hold.

41:05.12

Chaz Nuttycombe

So, yeah and I don't think that Democrats got a a strong candidate here in Lindsay Doherty. You know, they had this three way primary between candidates who, you know, I don't think we're really strong. Lindsay Doherty also in a district that's pretty much the same in its makeup almost in 2019.

41:24.33

Chaz Nuttycombe

and twenty nineteen She lost against Coiner by 11. Now, this is probably going to be a much tighter race than that election because the Democrats are actually trying to go against Coiner, right?

41:34.25

Chaz Nuttycombe

They didn't really lift much of a it finger against her until like the Susanna Gibson story came out in September. That's when they're like, we have this money. We have to find another seat. Let's go here.

41:44.93

Chaz Nuttycombe

And so Coiner won by like 5%. um Another thing is that, yeah, like Coiner has the most moderate record voting record in the Virginia General Assembly, bar none. And you'll see that in Virginia W nominate when it comes out month.

41:57.94

Chaz Nuttycombe

so she has a lot of crossover appeal. she's one of the top performing Republicans, especially in a swing district compared to the partisan lean of the district.

42:08.25

Chaz Nuttycombe

so that's one of the, that's, there's quite a few things working for the, Republicans here. Yes, we do have Carrie Coiner down by 2.2, by she That very, tight.

42:19.55

Chaz Nuttycombe

sixty to three percent chance she lose is that is very very tight And again, this is one of those things to where it's like, if the curse of hope, well continues, right. and it kind of, it wasn't actually that bad in 2021 when you look at the trend, right. There was a big rightward swing in, in, uh, Virginia compared to 2020 and it kind of moved in line compared to 2017 and 2013, et cetera, et cetera.

42:43.47

Chaz Nuttycombe

so yeah, like if the curse of hope, well, comes back and it's, it's not dead. Like it seemed like it may be dead relative to the environment 2021. Um, Then and, you know, Abigail Spanberger continues to have a poor standing with black voters.

42:59.84

Chaz Nuttycombe

Then, yeah, Kerry Coiner can win. She's far from done. This is a very tight race. But, you know, yes, the district and and district's partisan lean and the environment we project.

43:12.47

Chaz Nuttycombe

shows that this would probably be ah ah seat that narrowly goes to the Democrats. so I think this one in 82, because there's, they have a large black voting base south of the Appomattox river are two two seats. I wouldn't be surprised if they, if the Republicans outperformed them by a few points.

43:35.41

Chaz Nuttycombe

But again, it it's that's just my opinion. i don't put my opinion into the forecast. I don't go with my gut. um You know, or like, I think those are the only two to where it's like, like in the back of my head and my gut, I'm thinking like, I think they may do a little bit better, right?

43:51.26

Chaz Nuttycombe

I don't think there's really any other district on like vice versa on the Democratic side, besides like maybe 73, which we'll get into here a bit towards like, I think the Democrat is going to do a little bit better, right?

44:02.30

Chaz Nuttycombe

So yeah.

44:03.22

Sam Shirazi

Well, I made this joke online. We'll see if the Democrats will have to cope well in hopewell and super corny.

44:10.92

Chaz Nuttycombe

And that's pretty good. Oh man I wish I had that in my piece. You should have given that to me.

44:17.36

Sam Shirazi

Well, let's move on to the next district. And I think this is your favorite district. It is the only one really in Western Virginia. It's House District 41. This is the last seat where you currently have the Democrats more likely to win this district. It's House District 41. Chris Obenshain is a Republican.

44:35.74

Sam Shirazi

You give the Democrats a 59% chance of winning this seat. you know Even though this was a Trump district, why do you think the Democrats have a slightly better chance this year?

44:44.84

Chaz Nuttycombe

I actually need to make a note to myself because I just completely I mean, I've i've been slammed with with work and whatnot. But I haven't checked the ah voter registration numbers on this district in a while, which are very important.

45:00.90

Chaz Nuttycombe

for, you know, like for August. so yeah, this, this is how sister 41, which is, um the entire town of Blacksburg, lot of rural areas in Montgomery County, a tiny slice of Christiansburg and Eastern Roanoke County, um, like some exurbs in rural areas and like Catawba.

45:18.45

Chaz Nuttycombe

And we could talk about, you know, whether this district was just and so instead of uniting Blacksburg with Radford and keeping those towns together to create a more Republican district is entirely different conversation.

45:30.58

Chaz Nuttycombe

But, yes, this was the second tightest race in 2023. And ah ah they this is a rematch between Lily Franklin and Chris Obenshain.

45:41.51

Chaz Nuttycombe

And so this district voted for Trump by like three points in, I think, like 2.8. or something like that in 2024. twenty twenty four would have to check here.

45:53.88

Chaz Nuttycombe

But yeah, so this is going to be it really a test of 2.9% voted for Trump Um, this is going to be a test of what ground are Democrats clawing back with college students, right?

46:07.94

Chaz Nuttycombe

a big thing that really moved this district to the right in the presidential level, right? It voted for Trump barely in 2020 was because Blacksburg moved like five points to the right. If I recall correctly, something just about there.

46:20.87

Chaz Nuttycombe

so, you know, because Republicans, especially Trump made games with college age students, And so, you know, I made this point in the previous episode, like maybe the Republican leaning college students are, you know, because their college students are low prop, low propensity voters and are unlikely to come out.

46:38.72

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. could be something that works in Franklin's favor. The voter registration is looking a lot better for Franklin than it did in 2023 at this point. I'll say that it's looking really good for her campaign.

46:51.76

Chaz Nuttycombe

yeah This was one of the things in 2023 that I noted to where it was like, you know, one of the things that made it like a lean R to likely R race throughout most of the forecast. Right. I think it ended up at lean R in the final

47:04.43

Chaz Nuttycombe

It started out as safe far So she she made it competitive. the voter registration numbers in 2023 looked really poor, right? I mean, the the Virginia Tech Democrats just became to gain and gain it to gain their strength.

47:17.03

Chaz Nuttycombe

This is a district that zigs and zags. It's not really trending to the right. It's not really trending to the left. It kind of is like very much a when you look at how it it voted.

47:30.14

Chaz Nuttycombe

And yes, I am going to write on this district, but I want to I want to wait for a game day because I want to go down. interview, uh, open chain and Franklin, hopefully. And like, you know, it's game day in Blacksburg kind of vibe. Right.

47:41.40

Chaz Nuttycombe

but, uh, this is district that zigs and zags. It's not moving to the left or to the right. so, you know, it's going to be interesting to see what Democrats do with trying to get out, the college students. It's going be interesting to see as well. If like, you know, maybe turning point USA gets involved, um,

47:56.86

Chaz Nuttycombe

and trying to win over college students and whatnot, right. ah ah Seeing what they can do to continue to make ground. But like the issue is, if you look at like thermostatic public opinion and and which demographics are moving, the left, because they're not happy with Trump policies, it's young voters, right.

48:13.15

Chaz Nuttycombe

Uh, and it makes sense. You know, I think I said this before is that this, you know, when you're at that point in your life, you're still developing your, your worldview, right. Your, your political affiliations, your ideological leanings, your,

48:25.96

Chaz Nuttycombe

opinions on on life. So you are you're very much ah susceptible to, i guess I guess, be reactionary to events. And that includes the incumbent party, right? there called These 18 to 22-year-olds or 23-year-olds, whatever, were very unhappy with the Biden administration. That's why they moved to the right, right?

48:47.26

Chaz Nuttycombe

They lost their like, you know, maybe high school graduation. They lost some of their college time because of lockdowns and covid. And they blame that on the Democrats and Republicans ran on that heavily in twenty twenty one. And that's one of the reasons the district flipped. And there are other reasons that also are the equivalent of district flipped in twenty twenty one. There are also other reasons.

49:05.94

Chaz Nuttycombe

which was that the Democratic incumbent had a DUI scandal and was stealing his opponent's yard signs the night before the election. But yeah, this is the tightest seat ah ah in the, or sorry, a second tightest seat in the House of Delegates.

49:20.42

Chaz Nuttycombe

We have Chris Obenshain down by 1.5% with a 59% chance of losing. I wouldn't be surprised at all if this held to the Republicans.

49:31.01

Chaz Nuttycombe

But I think when you look at and this is going to be something that comes out in this piece for me on this district profile in a couple of weeks, when you look at how this district usually goes, it does rather zig than zag.

49:42.42

Chaz Nuttycombe

and And you'll see what I mean when we look at the actual precinct results in relation to the national or national statewide environment, whatever. so I, I would be a little bit surprised, if, if this district didn't flip.

49:55.68

Chaz Nuttycombe

I think it would also spell very damning, trouble for Democrats, with young voters, in, in the future that I think, I think the Republicans held this seat.

50:05.38

Chaz Nuttycombe

It would, defy, you know, uh, public polling that's showing that young voters are moving back to the left because they're unhappy with the Trump administration or something.

50:15.66

Chaz Nuttycombe

and I think it would solidify the belief that and Gen Z is, or the younger Gen Z, I would say, is, is quite conservative. so I, I, yeah, I'm really interested in this district.

50:27.54

Chaz Nuttycombe

am, uh, excited to, at some point, you know, maybe this month or October, visit my alma mater and, and profile this seat. I have very good memories in Blacksburg and I remember just being very anxious on election night or election day ah ah within this seat because, you know, we had Chris Obenshain winning and then i show up to campus and of bringing out the beer pong tables to get for get room for students to vote.

50:58.08

Chaz Nuttycombe

And I was thinking if I get every single district right in the house except my own, I'm going be so pissed. So, yeah.

51:05.84

Sam Shirazi

Well, I hope you make it back to Blacksburg for a game, and but Virginia Tech might actually win one if you're if you go. Yeah.

51:11.00

Chaz Nuttycombe

Oh, come on, man. Come on. don't have to go there.

51:16.24

Sam Shirazi

It's all right.

51:16.70

Chaz Nuttycombe

It's too fresh.

51:18.96

Sam Shirazi

Well, I suspect they'll get a win eventually. So let's let's move back up to NOVA for House District 30.

51:21.62

Chaz Nuttycombe

We will.

51:26.05

Sam Shirazi

There is incumbent Republican Gary Higgins. You say that he has a 53% chance of winning. this is So we're now we're in the seats that the Republicans are more likely to win than the Democrats.

51:37.97

Sam Shirazi

But the Democrat John McAuliffe just rolled out an ad focused on data centers. Do you think that could be a secret to success for John McAuliffe to be able to flip this seat?

51:48.71

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, I think I think maybe that could be something, um know, we didn't really touch. i I think I think it was Ali or it was either me or Ali, our managing editor, who did a piece on this district about a month ago.

52:06.50

Chaz Nuttycombe

And it's really interesting when you look at Percival politics. Percival is a town in Western Loudoun. ah is Western Loudoun in northern Fauquier counties.

52:18.35

Chaz Nuttycombe

And that town moved to the left on the presidential level, even though this district probably we don't know for sure, flipped from, uh, uh, Biden to Trump.

52:31.90

Chaz Nuttycombe

it, we're not sure because of the precinct changes. but it probably did. So this is a narrow Trump district. we know that narrow Trump district in 2024,

52:42.82

Chaz Nuttycombe

the, the thing about Percival it's so interesting, right? And this has been going on through the year. there's this new site candidates that are elected. and they tried to abolish the police in Percival and they got a lot of, uh, flack for it.

52:58.93

Chaz Nuttycombe

And, Higgins has taken, the, the mayor's money, uh, has received a donation from him. You know, the mayor that wants to, Get rid of the Percival Police Department.

53:09.74

Chaz Nuttycombe

So this is like a rare instance to where the Democrats can say, you ah right, like like Republicans in 2023 are running ads on like this candidate is fun, is funded by D is is taking support and funded by defund the police groups.

53:25.36

Chaz Nuttycombe

Technically, Gary Higgins is taking support from defund the police politicians. Hell, abolish the police politicians. So it's a it's really interesting. And so we pointed this out because I think that's yes, data centers are going to be very important in this district.

53:42.02

Chaz Nuttycombe

I am interested in how Percival goes. Right. don't think there's they're going to be able to get. Yeah, they are going to be able to get recalls on the ballot this year. they want to recall the town council.

53:51.80

Chaz Nuttycombe

So I think that's something interesting. And yeah, Democrats are trying to run a little more of a right wing campaign here just because they did vote for Trump. is very wealthy and white.

54:01.71

Chaz Nuttycombe

I would be surprised if Spanberger did not win this district unless there is a big Nova backlash to what's going on in Arlington and against local government and all that. Right. Kind of similar to 2021.

54:13.15

Chaz Nuttycombe

wouldn't be too surprised. but yeah, we have, we this is the tightest seat in the house. a few weeks ago, it was the open chain seat was the tightest seat in the house. This is our plus 0.7% with a 53% chance that Higgins wins. So literally a toss up.

54:29.20

Chaz Nuttycombe

not going to be surprised if either party wins it, not going to be surprised if we get this one wrong.

54:33.81

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, it's definitely going to be tight. So we'll just have to wait and see who's able to pull it out. Moving down back to the Richmond suburbs. This is House District 73. The current incumbent is Mark Early and you give him a 58% chance of winning.

54:49.65

Sam Shirazi

this district, do you think this is the year it could flip or do you think it needs a little bit more time and maybe in 2027 it flips? Yeah.

54:57.47

Chaz Nuttycombe

I think it would definitely flip this year. So this is what i was saying is that there are like three seats to where it's like in the back of my head, I'm thinking like, you know, that one party may outperform the forecast.

55:10.05

Chaz Nuttycombe

I would say this is probably the most likely seat that the Dems outperform. And it's because just che this district is moving so far to the left. It's the most leftward trending district in any seat in the House of Delegates.

55:22.68

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. And we we are actually about to ah finish up a profile of the district. So you'll see that. And I'm not even talking about the presidential results. You go down the state legislative results you look at the compared to the environment and it's moving to the left at light speed.

55:36.45

Chaz Nuttycombe

Early had a shell of an opponent in 2023 and he won by about nine points. district went from like Trump plus what? Maybe somewhere somewhere between five to seven points.

55:47.70

Chaz Nuttycombe

Maybe eight. I don't remember. it voted for Harris by about a point last year. And this is Abigail Spanberger territory, right? They're going to work hard in Chesterfield. So and early voting record is, I would say conservative.

56:03.17

Chaz Nuttycombe

It's not like ah ah man a man of bat and conservative, right? Early voting, like where the rest of the like swing member district members of the house of Republican caucus are right.

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