Hi, everyone. I’m Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout, the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode, we will first go over some of the fallout about what’s going on in D.C. with the shutdown.

00:11.01

Sam Shirazi

And then I wanted to talk about a bunch of polls that we got this week in Virginia and specifically look at the question of turnout versus persuasion. All right, to begin, let’s talk about the shutdown in D.C.

00:24.48

Sam Shirazi

As of the release of this podcast, the shutdown is still ongoing and there hasn’t really been any indication that it’s going to end soon. And if you remember, one of the factors I had discussed previously about the shutdown was the length of any shutdown. So the longer the shutdown, the bigger the deal it’s going to be in the Virginia elections.

00:45.14

Sam Shirazi

So this one is probably going to be at least a week at this point. And so that’s getting into the territory where it’s starting to become a bigger deal. So I do think the shutdown is going to have a bigger impact on the Virginia elections.

00:57.02

Sam Shirazi

ah Still unclear the overall impact and still unclear which party is going to benefit or perhaps it just doesn’t really affect the Virginia elections in terms of helping one side or the other.

01:09.85

Sam Shirazi

i will say there have been some polls released ah that have been taken before the shutdown, kind of assigning ah blame and which side the voters assign blame to.

01:20.86

Sam Shirazi

I will say that the polls generally have said that President Trump and the Republicans took more of the blame, particularly more independents blame them. ah Now, obviously, that could change. That was a snapshot in time. But that is one data point to consider as the shutdown um fight continues.

01:38.77

Sam Shirazi

And obviously, it also just depends how the shutdown plays out. And so currently, there has been some talk that um the figures within the Trump administration may want to go ahead with further federal layoffs as a result of the shutdown, also known as rifts.

01:55.58

Sam Shirazi

And so obviously, if that happens, there’s going to be more of an impact to what’s going on in Virginia if there are more rifts at the federal level. And so all that is just things to consider as we are analyzing the shutdown right now, because um there is a debate coming up on...

02:13.07

Sam Shirazi

Thursday between the Democratic and Republican candidates for governor in Virginia. It appears that’s going to be the only debate. And I think that’s going to be a really big moment. If the shutdown is still going on on Thursday, I think it’s going to be a major issue in the debate. And that’s going to be one of the many things that um is going to be discussed that is more of a federal fallout from what’s going on in D.C.

02:35.81

Sam Shirazi

And obviously, the beginning of the year, I had called this podcast Federal Fallout. The reason I did that was because I just had this feeling, which was not a huge surprise given everything going on in DC, that the what was going on in the federal government was going to have an impact on the Virginia elections.

02:52.23

Sam Shirazi

Obviously, at the beginning of the year there was more of an impact with Doge and the federal firings. I think um once Elon Musk left the stage, that quieted a little bit, although it’s still in the background. But now with the shutdown, it’s really come at possibly the worst time for the Virginia Republicans because it’s brought all these issues back to the forefront.

03:12.09

Sam Shirazi

We’re talking about not just a shutdown, but we’re talking about federal potential federal layoffs, which would have an important consequence here in Virginia. So I think one possibility is what’s going on in D.C.

03:24.14

Sam Shirazi

is generally going to help the Democrats in in the Virginia elections because there’s more focus on D.C., there’s more focus on Trump, and there’s also another focus, again, on the federal and job cuts potentially. um I do think there’s also a world where the shutdown could potentially help the Virginia Republicans.

03:43.30

Sam Shirazi

you know In theory, if the shutdown is just dragging on and on and people start blaming the Democrats because they they look like they’re being unreasonable and they’re unwilling to vote for the continuing resolution, it could hurt the Democrats.

03:54.60

Sam Shirazi

And there’s also the potential that eventually the Democrats will just – there’s too much pressure on them. They will essentially cave because – and frankly, I think that’s the Republican strategy. I think the Republican strategy right now is to just wait out the Democrats – They feel like eventually the Democrats are just going to vote to reopen the government and then they’ll get the win in the shutdown fight because the Democrats didn’t get what they wanted.

04:17.39

Sam Shirazi

So all that’s to say is, you know, there is a potential that it helps the Virginia Republicans. And and again, i think it’s a it’s a total wild card in this election. um i mentioned it was basically an October surprise. We had something similar happen in 2013.

04:31.29

Sam Shirazi

that I think did change the dynamics of that election and help the Democrats in that election. So we’re just gonna to wait and see. I mean, I wish I had a more definitive answer for people about what the impact of the shutdown is gonna be on the election.

04:43.88

Sam Shirazi

I do think given that it’s gonna be at least a week, I do think it’s gonna have some impact on the election. The question becomes again, who does it help? Does it hurt one side? too too unpredictable right now. I think we’ll get some more polling um on this specific question that might help answer some of the question. But again, i think i think it’s a wild card. And I’m going talk about all the Virginia polls that we’ve gotten so far. And I think all of them have pretty much were right before the shutdown. So I think it’s important to keep in mind while the polls right now are looking pretty good for the Democrats, it’s not taking into account this potential shift with the shutdown. So I’m not going to

05:22.57

Sam Shirazi

speculate too much about how the shutdown is going to impact the election until I have some more data and I can kind of give you a more definitive answer. I did want to talk about the polls and I’m going to do that in a minute, but just kind of want to reiterate that the shutdowns, this total wildcard could completely change the election um if it continues. And, you know, if it’s getting into later in October and the shutdown still going on,

05:43.41

Sam Shirazi

i mean, that’s pretty much going to be the dominant issue of the campaign. And so while there isn’t a lot more else to say about it right now, I do want to kind of keep in mind that it is going to be a major issue um in the election going forward.

05:56.24

Sam Shirazi

All right. Now let’s go talk about something that’s a little bit more certain, which are these polls that came out again before the shutdown, but still good to have more Virginia polls. And we got a bunch of Virginia polls this week. I will try to go through them pretty quickly to not...

06:10.57

Sam Shirazi

get too bogged down in each poll. However, i did want to discuss each poll, and then I’ll talk a little bit about this thing about turnout versus persuasion at the end. So in terms of the polls, I think we got two good nonpartisan polls this week, which I was really happy about because We’ve been getting um kind of inconsistent polling and some of it’s been more partisan polling. And I had specifically been waiting on a poll from the Washington Post because they have a collaboration with the Schar School at George Mason.

06:43.00

Sam Shirazi

And frankly, I find that these polls are very high quality polls, particularly in Virginia. I think they know how to poll Virginia. Their past polls have been pretty accurate. So in 2024, their last poll had Harris up by 6%. And that was exactly the margin that she won Virginia by. And I still remember in 2024, people were a little bit surprised by that last poll because it was closer than other polls had showed and it was closer than 2020. And in hindsight, I think that was a little bit of a warning sign to Democrats that maybe the election wasn’t this huge cakewalk that they thought it might be with Trump and that actually they might be in some trouble.

07:20.51

Sam Shirazi

And you know obviously it was one poll, so you you know you’d never knew if it was 100% accurate. um But in hindsight, the Schar school ah poll for 2024 was pretty accurate. And so that’s why when their 2025 poll finally came out, and this is their first poll in a long time, I was excited because I do think of the polls, and I mentioned before,

07:41.44

Sam Shirazi

There are some polls I pay more attention to, and this is one of them. All right, so I’m just going to go through the numbers first. In the Washington Post-Shar school poll, it had for the guy governor race, Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger at 55%.

07:55.99

Sam Shirazi

For the lieutenant governor’s race, it had Winston Merle Sears at 43%. For lieutenant governor, it had Ghazal Hashmi, the Democratic nominee, at 49%, and the Republican nominee, John Reed, at 45%.

08:08.92

Sam Shirazi

For Attorney General, it had the Democratic nominee, Jay Jones, at 51%, and it had the Republican nominee, Jason Meares, at 45%. It also had a couple other interesting nuggets in here. So the Trump approval was 55% disapprove, 45% approve.

08:26.33

Sam Shirazi

And the Yunkin approval was 50% approved and 46% disapproved. And I thought the Trump approval was especially interesting because to be perfectly honest, this is not um that bad of an approval for President Trump in Virginia. Remember, President Trump has never won Virginia. He lost it three times in a row.

08:45.23

Sam Shirazi

ah He got about um this number in 2024. So it’s not like he’s lost that much support. ah He’s down negative 10. But still, the Democrats at the top of the ticket with Spanberger are up by 12%.

09:00.86

Sam Shirazi

So even in a poll, so that tells the Trump number tells me the poll itself is not super friendly to the Democrats. Because if it was super friendly to the Democrats, Trump’s approval would probably be closer to 60% disapproved.

09:12.98

Sam Shirazi

But he’s only at 55% approved. But then Spanberger also at 55% in terms of her number. And this is one of the highest numbers I’ve seen for Spanberger in terms of just pure margin.

09:24.45

Sam Shirazi

what’s that What that’s telling me is everyone pretty much who disapproves of Trump is voting for Spanberger. So again, I’ve said this since the beginning of the podcast that these off these um Virginia governor’s election often become a referendum on the president.

09:38.01

Sam Shirazi

If this poll is correct, it is essentially become a referendum on Trump. If you like Trump, you are voting probably for the Republicans. If you don’t like Trump, you’re voting for the Democrats. Overall, that’s good news for the Democrats because Trump has 55% disapproval according to this poll.

09:53.64

Sam Shirazi

And obviously, look, 12% margin at the top of the ticket. I mean, that’s going to be tough for anyone to overcome with one month left in a campaign. i will say that, um you know, the shutdown is a wild card and we we can’t take anything for granted. But this was not a great poll for the Republicans.

10:12.36

Sam Shirazi

All right. And I wanted to talk about one other nonpartisan poll that we got, and that was from Emerson. So I’ll give you the numbers quickly for the Emerson poll. For governor, it had Smair Burger at 52%.

10:23.58

Sam Shirazi

And then it had Winston Merrill Sears at 42%. For the Trump approval, it had disapproved, was 46% approved, 41% disapproved. prove yu k approval was forty six percent approve forty one percent disapproved And I like getting these two polls pretty close to each other because you can compare and contrast.

10:41.35

Sam Shirazi

And frankly, they’re pretty similar. The Trump approval is pretty similar. And then the Spanberger margin is pretty similar. In in Emerson, she’s at 10 percent. In Washington Post, she’s at 12 percent.

10:54.06

Sam Shirazi

And keep in mind with Emerson in New Jersey, very recently they found a tie. And so this is not necessarily a pollster. I think Emerson’s a pretty good pollster, pretty nonpartisan. They’re not a pollster that’s necessarily super favorable for the Democrats.

11:07.64

Sam Shirazi

They found a tie in New Jersey, but then they they’re finding Democrats are doing 10% better than in Virginia. So again, the nonpartisan polls taken prior to the shutdown are giving us a pretty clear signal that the Democrats are doing well.

11:21.25

Sam Shirazi

Spanberger is above 50%. She’s getting at least all the ah Harris 2024 voters to back her, if not getting all the Trump disapprovers to back her. so um you know,

11:33.79

Sam Shirazi

It doesn’t take a genius to look at these polls and say that things are going pretty well at the top of the ticket for the Democrats. I did want to just talk about one other poll ah briefly because, you know, to to give you a sense of what some other polls are looking like. So there’s a polling organization called Trafalgar.

11:50.09

Sam Shirazi

I will say that they’ve had a mixed record in the past and they’re definitely more... I would say leaning towards the Republicans in terms of their alignment. But I wanted to give you their numbers just in in terms of you having all the numbers in terms of polls that came out this week. So for governor, of the Trafalgar poll found Spanberger 47%. It found ear Sears Lieutenant Governor, it had Hashmi at 48% and Reid at 44%. For Attorney General, it had Jones at 49% and Mears at 45%.

12:20.61

Sam Shirazi

And you know keep in mind, again, this is similar to other Republican internals or Republican-aligned polls, which typically show Spanberger up about 5%.

12:31.83

Sam Shirazi

So almost all the internal Republican polls or Republican-aligned polls have shown Spanberger at 5% in recent weeks. um weeks But compare that to the nonpartisan polls. Nonpartisan polls typically have spam murder up by about 10%.

12:46.86

Sam Shirazi

So while it’s helpful to have these Republican polls, you also want to keep in mind that there might be a little bit of um you know different numbers than what the nonpartisan polls are finding. Okay, so now that we have all those numbers out of the way, we can kind of think about why is the race where it is?

13:03.30

Sam Shirazi

And I often get this question about turnout versus persuasion. So but people on both sides will ask me kind of essentially the same question. What’s more important in election, turnout or persuasion?

13:15.75

Sam Shirazi

So turnout is the idea that you just need to really motivate your boy your base to go vote. Whereas persuasion is the idea, no, what you really need to focus on are the voters in the middle, the swing voters.

13:26.82

Sam Shirazi

And I often give the same answer, which is basically you got to worry about both. the The elections, the campaigns where you do really well, it’s when you both have turnout and you have persuasion.

13:38.79

Sam Shirazi

So you think about 2021 with He was able to win because he brought out his base. He had a lot of turnout among Republicans, and he was able to persuade some of those voters in the middle to back him.

13:50.79

Sam Shirazi

That’s how he was able to win in 2021. needed both. I think there are scenarios where maybe you could win with one or the other, but again, the really big wins are done when you have both. So if you’re a campaign, you want both turnout and persuasion.

14:04.48

Sam Shirazi

And I will give you an example in ah democratic history, not too long ago, but 2008, obviously there were a lot of um things going right for the Obama campaign, but they were able to get their turnout up.

14:16.58

Sam Shirazi

They were able to persuade voters in the middle that gave you a landslide. um That’s the kind of thing that you want to do. You want to get your base excited and turning out and you want the voters in the middle to back you.

14:29.62

Sam Shirazi

And I think sometimes there’s this false choice presented that, oh, no, all you need to focus on is your is your base. Just turn out your base and who cares about voters in the middle? um Or who cares about your base?

14:41.08

Sam Shirazi

You just need to focus on the voters in the middle. ah you know Again, i think it’s important to think about both and you need both. I think the advantage just structurally that Spanberger has, and again, this is an advantage that the party out of the White House typically has in the Virginia governor’s election.

14:56.24

Sam Shirazi

The structural advantage she has is that her base is going to be fired up. So a lot of Democrats, they’re frustrated at what’s going on in DC. They want to send a message. They’re going to come out and vote. And so the Spanberger campaign knows that they’re going to get a certain amount of votes from the base.

15:11.74

Sam Shirazi

And so that means they can spend more of their time focused on the vote the voters in the middle. They can try to persuade voters. And you’ve seen her do that with a lot of focus on cost of living, ah talking about you know, the tariffs and those issues. And yes, she’s trying to tie them to to Trump, but it’s not this super red meat stuff that maybe you would think the Democratic base would like. She’s more focused on everyday concerns people have, you know, gossip groceries, those types of things, because she has that space, because she knows her base is going to turn out, given how angry they are at what’s going on in D.C.,

15:45.93

Sam Shirazi

I think the problem that Winston-Merle Sears has had, and this is again the problem the party in the White House has, is their base is never fully engaged in the Virginia elections because they’re generally happy because Trump is in the White House right now, or if it it’s a Democratic president, you have a Democratic, ah the Democratic base is not necessarily as fully engaged. That was part of the problem in 2021.

16:06.37

Sam Shirazi

And so I think what Earl Sears, she has to do both. She has to both engage her base and she needs to persuade the voters in the middle. And I wanted to talk about one other issue this week that came up, and it’s been the focus of the Winston-Murl Sears campaign that she’s had so much focus on the trans issue. And I think even some Republicans are now but starting to speak out and saying, you know, maybe she’s starting to go a little bit overboard in terms of the focus on the trans issue. And I’m going to read to you something that former Lieutenant Governor of Virginia, Bill Bowling, he’s a Republican. He’s still a Republican. He voted for President Trump in 24.

16:45.73

Sam Shirazi

I will say he’s more of an establishment Republican, but he’s still a Republican. And this is what she wrote he wrote because Winston Meryl Sears released a new ad that was focused on the transgender issue this week.

16:57.88

Sam Shirazi

And ah Bill Bowling said, quote, I guess... um The thought is that this issue will turn out the conservative base and maybe cut into Spanberger’s support in Northern Virginia localities where these issues are being hotly debated.

17:11.03

Sam Shirazi

But if this is all the Sears campaign has to talk about, I think they are in serious trouble. And so we’re seeing even... Republicans are starting to question the Earl Sears strategy of just focusing on the trans issue.

17:23.43

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, I wanted to just step back and kind of explain what the Earl Sears campaign was trying to do and why it might not be totally crazy. Because I’ve been hearing certain things about like, why is Earl Sears spending so much time on the trans issue? I wanted to kind of explain it from their perspective, where what they might have gotten right and I think what they might have gotten wrong.

17:42.65

Sam Shirazi

So if you remember, in July, there were some panic pieces that came out and the Republicans were really nervous because they thought they were going to lose the the election in July. And so there was a reboot of the Winston-Marcel Sears campaign. She made some changes in her campaign.

17:55.06

Sam Shirazi

In August, they started talking more about the trans issue. There was obviously the incident in Arlington, which gave them injection of energy. And so that’s kind of how ah the July-August timeframe looked like.

18:06.96

Sam Shirazi

And to be perfectly honest, I think in August, in august purely from... a political standpoint, I think there was some, it did make sense to a certain extent to try to do something to energize the base. Because as I said, they had a turnout problem. They needed to get the base energized in order to at least get to a certain number this year in Virginia.

18:27.79

Sam Shirazi

And so in August, I think the focus on the trans issue made sense to a certain extent if you’re the Winston Earl Sears campaign. Because, again, it’s an issue that they think it doesn’t turn off the the middle voter, but it really excites their base and they need it based excitement. So in August, it kind of made sense for that to be part of the campaign.

18:48.68

Sam Shirazi

However, I think the issue Winston-Marcel Sears had, and I actually flagged this all the way back in August, if you listened to the podcast back then. is that at some point they would need to shift to the voter in the middle because this is not the type of issue that wins the voter in the middle, in my opinion. And it’s not just my opinion. There’s also polling backing that up. So both in the Washington Post poll and in the Emerson poll, the trans issue is just not the top priority for voters. It’s just...

19:15.41

Sam Shirazi

you know, well below the other ones. Economy is always the top issue for most voters. And so while I think the trans issue to a certain extent made sense in August for the Winston Earl Sears campaign, in October, it’s not the issue you want to be running on because the voters in the middle, they don’t necessarily care about it. They care much more about the economy.

19:32.88

Sam Shirazi

The Washington Post and Emerson polls show this. If you dig down into those polls in terms of the issues, the vast majority of voters are much more concerned about the economy than they are trans issues. So I think the salience of the issue is not what the Winston-Marcel Sears campaign ah thinks it is.

19:49.42

Sam Shirazi

And I think they’ve probably started to get the message that they need to shift ah messaging to to maybe more of the economy. If I had to guess, they’re going to focus on the car tax issue. So If you’re familiar with Virginia, Virginia has a car tax, which is burst basically a personal property tax with some exemptions where essentially you have to pay a tax on your car and most people don’t like it. And obviously...

20:13.62

Sam Shirazi

Politically, it’s popular to get rid of it. ah you know You can debate about the policy and how are you going to make up the lost revenue? And are you goingnna have to cut services? are you goingnna have to raise taxes other places? But obviously, from a political standpoint, it makes sense. And it it makes sense to the point that the Spanberger campaign has also talked about how they that she’s open to potentially repealing the car tax. So I think that The Earl Sears folks are going to try to maybe go down that road. You know, the problem is a little bit ah too little too late.

20:41.37

Sam Shirazi

Also, like this is not necessarily the most important single policy in the world. So while, yes, it’s pretty popular, like, are you going to suddenly shift 10% of voters just off the car tax? um We’ll see. But I do think they they might shift their focus a little bit. And obviously, the trans issues got gotten to the point where they got enough, they got them as much mileage as they could from it, but it’s it’s getting old. and And I honestly had flagged in August that the danger for the Republicans was they were going to beat a dead horse. And at some point, people just get, they get the message. And, and you know, you can’t just talk about one thing over and over again, especially an issue like this that,

21:18.65

Sam Shirazi

Well, I know some people on both sides have passionate views about it. The reality is most people, they’re trying to get through the day. um They’re trying to pay groceries. They’re trying to pay rent. There’s stuff going on with the shutdown. um you know Most people are not thinking about this issue every single moment. And so you know as a campaign, you just have to be realistic about what is it that is exciting your base versus what’s going turn out your base versus the things that the average voter in the middle cares about. And so I think that’s the challenge with turnout versus persuasion. You you need to do things that will get your base excited.

21:57.18

Sam Shirazi

But at the same time, you can’t forget the voters in the middle. You have to be able to persuade them. And I think right now, given the polling, Spanberger definitely has the right formula. Her base is excited. They want to turn out. They’re angry at what’s going on in D.C.

22:10.54

Sam Shirazi

And yet, because of her money, because of the focus on economic issues, she’s able to win the voters in the middle. She’s winning independents. That’s why you see that she has such a big lead in these polls right now.

22:22.26

Sam Shirazi

All right. One last thing. And it’s kind of similar to the persuasion thing I talked about earlier, because there had been a few stories that have come out this week. To be perfectly honest, I don’t necessarily have the time to go in the ins and outs of each story. There was one story about Lieutenant Governor candidate John Reed, and there was a couple stories about the attorney general candidate Jay Jones.

22:44.61

Sam Shirazi

Again, um I don’t want to necessarily spend a whole bunch of time talking about it because it’s still unclear how much of an impact it’s going to have on the race ah for both those ah races.

22:55.99

Sam Shirazi

But I did want to talk about ticket splitting and also the issue of persuading voters down ballot, because I think One of the things I’m grappling with is how much ticket splitting there’s going to be this year. I think I’ve been pretty consistent saying there’s not going to be a lot of ticket splitting.

23:10.51

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, my gut is still telling me it’s most people don’t necessarily split their ticket. It’s just the reality that voters like to pick the blue team or the red team and they just go straight down the ticket. They don’t think too much about each candidate.

23:24.20

Sam Shirazi

ah You know, it’s just an easy thing to do because, you know, who’s going to spend time researching every single candidate? Obviously, if you’re listening to this podcast, you’re probably the type of person that might. But most people, they’re not necessarily living and breathing politics. They’re not thinking about this stuff all the time.

23:40.19

Sam Shirazi

And so the question becomes, OK, how much of there how much could there be ticket splitting? And I think there certainly is a possibility that that at least ah for a certain amount of voters, that they will probably split their ticket either way. And so I don’t think we’re going to get 100% exactly the same margins for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general.

24:02.44

Sam Shirazi

the The challenge is when you have a race where Spanberger is winning by this much, and um again, unless something changes, and i and I don’t know if it will, ah you know, with the shutdown, you know, assuming Spanberger gets a double digit win, which is what the Emerson and and Washington Post polls are showing,

24:19.70

Sam Shirazi

you know Yes, there will probably be a certain amount of ticket splitting, but I just don’t know if it’s getting to the point where you can overcome 10% at the top of the ticket. maybe Maybe if the Republicans or the Democrats spend a lot of time investing in individual races, um maybe, but even then it’s going to take a lot lot of time.

24:39.83

Sam Shirazi

By the time you know the average voter learns about something, it takes some time. so I’m you know keeping an eye on it. I really do hope we get new polls in October that will both talk about the shutdown and also take a look at the lieutenant governor and attorney general races a little bit more closely.

24:57.01

Sam Shirazi

you know The reality is most people in the world are not living and breathing Virginia politics. I know if you’re listening to this podcast, it’s probably something you’re passionate about. I obviously spend a lot of time thinking about Virginia politics. That’s why I did this podcast.

25:12.39

Sam Shirazi

But I’m also mindful, and I think this is one of the hardest things to do when you are very politically engaged, is to think about the average voter. you know What are they actually thinking about in terms of politics? What are they seeing?

25:24.09

Sam Shirazi

And I think um I want to be a little bit um humble and don’t want to take, presume anything and too much one way or another without some sort of data backing me up. Because I do think the reality is most voters,

25:39.34

Sam Shirazi

They are um you know worried about their lives. They’re worried about the economy. They are not necessarily following every single story. and And I think the extra challenge this year in the Virginia elections is what’s going on in D.C. is really dominating things. So the shutdown in Northern Virginia is a big story.

25:56.28

Sam Shirazi

And everything going on with Trump and Congress and federal cuts and this and that, I mean, most voters, i mean, that’s more of what they see in their news to the extent they’re even watching the news, because frankly, some people just want to tune out the news these days. And so I’m mindful that that’s what’s dominating a lot of what’s going on. um The Virginia specific issues, Virginia specific questions,

26:20.58

Sam Shirazi

I’m just unsure about how much that’s seeping through to the average voter. And we’ve really seen this since 2005, where the Virginia elections essentially just become a referendum on the incumbent president.

26:32.44

Sam Shirazi

And so to the extent the Emerson and Washington Post polls are showing that that’s kind of what’s happening, um that is telling me that people are just going to vote straight ticket. And I don’t know how much these individual stories are going to matter.

26:44.55

Sam Shirazi

Now, I’m trying to keep an open mind. I’m obviously going to look at the data as it comes in. I want to look at more polling, both nationally and Virginia, about the shutdown, which party is taking more of the blame. I also want to take a look at more Virginia polling that’s been conducted in October that looks at the Attorney General, Lieutenant Governor of race.

27:00.87

Sam Shirazi

And I’m going to keep my mind open, but right now, you know my gut is still telling me there’s not going to be a lot of ticket splitting. So let’s just see how it plays out. um I’ll probably cover it more in future podcasts as we get more information. but Yeah, I mean, Virginia elections are certainly ah a wild ride. There’s a lot going on. I appreciate everyone who’s been listening. I’m trying to do my best to cover everything. And I will keep everyone updated. I’m i’m keeping a look at everything and trying to you know be reasonable, trying to be objective about what I’m seeing, try to report it as best I can. i appreciate everyone who’s been listening. And this has been Federal Fallout, and I’ll join you next time.

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