Hi, everyone. I’m Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout, the 2025 Virginia elections. This episode, we will look at some upcoming special elections in Virginia that will be happening in the new year. And then i also wanted to preview the midterms that will be happening next year in Virginia and what is going on with the really competitive races and potentially with redistricting.

00:37.74

Sam Shirazi

So there will already be one special election for her state Senate seat, and the Democratic nominee has already been chosen. That will be Delegate Mike Jones, and in all likelihood, he will be the next state senator because it’s a very blue seat.

00:51.12

Sam Shirazi

And so that special election will be taking place January 6th. So that’s one special election already for the state Senate seat, the Ghazal Hashmi. is resigning from. Now, Mike Jones has already indicated that he is going to resign from the House of Delegates next year because in all likelihood, i think he’s pretty confident that he’s going to win that race. And so that means his House of Delegates seat is also going to be up for election because there’s going to be a special election and the firehouse primary to pick the nominee in that district will be this Sunday. So this Sunday, the nominee for the district that Mike Jones currently represents, which is the 77th house district will be this Sunday, a firehouse primary.

01:31.21

Sam Shirazi

I would say the front runner is Michelle Mosby. She ran for Richmond mayor last year, and she has also been on the Richmond city council. Okay.

01:41.84

Sam Shirazi

there is There is also another candidate, a community activist and former ACLU attorney, Charlie Schmidt. So I think we’ll see who the nominee is in that district. And the special election for that House of Delegates seat will be on January 6th as well.

01:57.36

Sam Shirazi

So we’re going to have two so two special elections on January 6th, both in the basically the same area of... South Richmond, Chesterfield County, and that’s because there’s the special election for the state senate seat that Ghazal HaShmi currently holds, and there’s a special election for the state for the house of delegates seat that Mike Jones currently holds.

02:17.93

Sam Shirazi

So those are the January 6th special elections. But we’re not done yet with the special elections in Virginia because there will be two more, at least two more special elections, and those will be on January 13th. January 13th, the week after the January sixth special elections, there will be special elections in two House of Delegates seats. And the reason they’re to be those special elections is because Governor Alex Manberger has made a couple of appointments to her cabinet from the Virginia House of Delegates. So first...

02:49.13

Sam Shirazi

She appointed Delegate Candy King to be the Secretary of the Commonwealth. So that means she will have to resign from the Virginia House Delegates. And obviously there will be another special election to replace her.

03:01.54

Sam Shirazi

There’s going to be a firehouse primary to pick the nominee in that district. I think the frontrunner is Margaret Angela frankl Franklin. She has been endorsed by Delegate King. And so I think she’s probably the frontrunner in that district. This is in Prince William County area, another deep blue seat. All these seats are very blue, and so I don’t expect any of them to flip.

03:22.52

Sam Shirazi

So that’s one special election on January 13 for the seat currently held by Delegate Candy King. And there will be one more, at least one more special election on January 13. And that will be for House District 11 in Fairfax County. Not the Congressional District 11, but the House of Delegates District 11, and that is currently represented by Delegate David Bolova.

03:44.21

Sam Shirazi

And Governor-elect Spamberger has nominated him to be the Secretary of Natural Resources, so he will be resigning from the House of Delegates. Again, there will be another firehouse primary to determine who the nominee will be for the Democrats in this deep blue district, and that firehouse primary will be this Tuesday.

04:02.22

Sam Shirazi

And the frontrunner for that firehouse primary is... Delegate Bolivar’s wife, who is Sharon Bolivar, and she got a bunch of endorsements. And so we’ll we’ll see if if anyone else is able to take her on. I think there’s a few other candidates announced. So long story short, there are a lot of special elections early next year in Virginia.

04:22.56

Sam Shirazi

None of them are that exciting because I think they’re very blue seats and very unlikely that any of them are going to flip. I’ll be curious to see if we get any other special elections because conceivably, Governor-elect Spanberger could announce more members of her cabinet being drawn from the General Assembly. And you see this from time to time when There are changes in administration. The new administration will pick members of the House of Delegates or state Senate to serve in their cabinet.

04:51.30

Sam Shirazi

I think in this situation, particularly on the House side, I think Spanberger feels pretty confident just plucking people because they have such a big majority. And it doesn’t really matter if if you know there’s all these special elections going on. We’ll see on the state Senate side. you know Obviously, Ghazal Hashmi is already going to have to resign. And so we’ll see if Governor Alex Bamberger wants to pick anyone else from the state Senate. But long story short, there’s a lot of things going on in Virginia state politics that as a result of the administration transition transition, and especially when you go from one party to another, there’s going to be more drastic changes. So anyways, kind of interesting things to be on the lookout for. It’s going to be a little bit of a shakeup in the new House of Delegates because

05:33.97

Sam Shirazi

The people who are leaving are generally more senior. They’ve been around. And so we already have a large class of new members in the House of Delegates. And it’s going to get even bigger because there will be at least three more delegates in the House of Delegates who are coming in because of these special elections.

05:49.84

Sam Shirazi

All right. and But Virginia is not done with elections in the new year. That is because obviously 2026 is a midterm year. And so all 11 congressional districts in Virginia will be up for election. The big question is,

06:04.12

Sam Shirazi

What are the lines going to be? Because the Democrats have proposed these referendum in order to see if the voters want to change the maps in Virginia for the congressional districts.

06:15.40

Sam Shirazi

That still has to be voted again in January. In all likelihood, given the Democratic majorities, that is going to pass. So that’s not really a big deal. I think there’s two possibilities about... things that could stop the new maps from happening. One is the referendum itself. So the voters have to vote on this. It’s not just automatic that the maps will change.

06:34.50

Sam Shirazi

It will need to get approved by the voters. I think most people think that Democrats have a good shot of passing this but because the voters, they’re going to make this into a referendum into Trump because if you like Trump, you’re going to vote against this referendum. If you don’t like Trump, you’re going to vote for the referendum. You’re Essentially, you’re going want the maps to change. We saw this in California.

06:55.74

Sam Shirazi

And so, you know, as we saw in the election this year, President Trump has generally a negative approval in Virginia. And so you would think that that would mean the maps would be able to be changed. However, you know, you never know with referendums and you don’t want to assume anything. Virginia is not necessarily as blue as California. So I don’t think it’s necessarily 100% guaranteed that the referendum will get passed. But I do think the Democrats have a good shot.

07:20.28

Sam Shirazi

Keep in mind, there are legal challenges. So it’s possible that the Virginia Supreme Court or some of the lower courts are going to try to stop the referendum if the Republicans are successful in some of their state lawsuits.

07:32.82

Sam Shirazi

You know, to be perfectly honest, I think In Virginia, the courts tend to be pretty nonpolitical, unlike some other states where you see really activist kind of political judges on either side. In Virginia, the judges really try to be nonpartisan. And so for that reason, my sense is that the court is going to just kind of defer and let the referendum happen. If the voters pass it, the voters pass it. They’re not going to necessarily try to inject themselves too much into the process.

07:58.54

Sam Shirazi

you know That’s my personal opinion. Obviously, judges, you know they they will have to interpret the law and make the decision, but that’s kind of the backdrop to all of this in Virginia. so I think essentially there’s two scenarios. One scenario is the map changes and the Democrats draw a map that they want.

08:14.88

Sam Shirazi

The other scenario is the maps don’t change and we use the existing maps. I think regardless, we’re getting some clarity about how things are going to look next year in some of the most competitive districts. So I’ll go kind of the most competitive to the least competitive on the current map, although the caveat that all of this could change.

08:31.62

Sam Shirazi

So the first district I’ll talk about is the second congressional district. This is based in Hampton Roads, particularly the city of Virginia Beach. The current representative is Jen Kiggins. She was elected in 2022 by defeating the then representative Elaine Luria. However, Elaine Luria is now back for a comeback. So she has announced and she pretty much cleared the field that had already been announced for this year.

08:58.72

Sam Shirazi

seat. She, in all likelihood, will be the Democratic nominee. All the other major contenders dropped out as soon as she entered the race. And so I think it’s, and Luria has gotten a lot of endorsements. I think it’s very clear that the Democrats view her as the strongest candidate. So frankly, even if the seat the lines don’t change, I think there’s a good chance that Elaine Luria could win this seat. Why? Because this district flips back and forth between the parties.

09:24.62

Sam Shirazi

That’s why it flipped in 2022. That’s why it flipped in 2018. And this is one of my favorite facts. The second district, the party that has won the second district has been the majority party in Congress in in the House of Representatives in every election going back till 2008. that means for nine elections in the row, the party that’s won the second congressional district has become the majority party in the white house in that in the House of Representatives. excuse me So you can see why both parties really care about the second congressional district. I think the Democrats particularly really, really want to win this seat.

09:55.68

Sam Shirazi

They want Elaine Luria back in the House of Representatives. I think if they win this seat, I think there’s a good chance they’ll get to the majority. And that’s even before any of the lines change. So I think there’s a good chance the lines change. But even if you don’t change the lines, I think there’s a decent chance the Democrats are going to win this seat. This is a seat that Spanberger won pretty comfortably, I think around eight or nine points.

10:15.48

Sam Shirazi

And so I think it’s just it’s one of those things where if there’s a seat flipping in Virginia, I think the second is is definitely the number one seat most likely to flip. And I guess the other thing I should add is if if there is redistricting and the lines change, I think the way this district is going to change is...

10:34.04

Sam Shirazi

It’s probably going to keep the Eastern Shore. It’s probably going to keep Virginia Beach. It’s just going to become more of a inner Hampton Road seat. So it’ll go Virginia Beach and then parts of the city of Norfolk.

10:45.52

Sam Shirazi

Currently, it doesn’t include any of the city of Norfolk. It kind of goes under, has parts of the city of Chesapeake, and then it goes to Suffolk, and then it goes all the way past Suffolk. So I think it’s going to...

10:58.66

Sam Shirazi

So it’s going to have less rural areas and more urban areas areas in Norfolk. Obviously, the rural areas are more red. The urban areas are more blue. So the Democrats are going to try to make this a more blue leading seat. But as I mentioned, I don’t even know if it’s really necessary, at least for this election, in order for the Democrats to flip it. So definitely a seat to keep an eye out for in the second.

11:19.94

Sam Shirazi

All right. Now let’s go to the next most likely to flip seat. And that is the first congressional district. The current representative is Congressman Rob Whitman. He has represented that district for quite a while.

11:33.23

Sam Shirazi

However, he is facing a very serious challenge from Henrico County Prosecutor Shannon Taylor. I think, you know, there’s other candidates running, but realistically, I think most people have... I have a feeling that Shannon Taylor is the frontrunner to get the primary and she’s gotten a lot of endorsements. So it looks like Shannon Taylor is set to face off with Rob Whitman. The question becomes is how much does the district change? Because the current district voted for Trump, although in 2025 it voted for Spanberger.

12:04.40

Sam Shirazi

So this is a Trump-Spanberger district. on the current lines. And I think it’s going to be very interesting. I think Whitman traditionally has been more popular in the rural parts of the district in the northern neck part of Virginia.

12:17.23

Sam Shirazi

However, the other parts of the the district are trending towards the Democrats, particularly the Richmond suburbs, Henrico and Chesterfield. And then the other part of the district is more towards Hampton Roads, places like Williamsburg,

12:31.28

Sam Shirazi

York County, James City County, those areas are also trending towards the Democrats. So I think Shannon Taylor, even under these lines, has a decent chance of winning this seat. I think it’s going competitive. Rob Whitman’s a strong incumbent. He overperformed Trump.

12:44.54

Sam Shirazi

So I don’t want to assume it would automatically flip under the current lines. But I think, you know, Shannon Taylor got in before it was obvious that Virginia Democrats were going to redistrict. And I think that’s because she had a feeling this this seat was going to be potentially competitive. And then, you know, throw into that the fact that this district might actually change under.

13:05.40

Sam Shirazi

a new map that might be drawn. And I think this could really become a very good pickup opportunity for the Democrats. How would it change? I mean, my guess would be that some of the rural areas in, you know, Northern Neck, that part of Virginia, that’ll be connected to a Northern Virginia seat.

13:22.19

Sam Shirazi

And so it’s just essentially going to become a bluer district because again, you’re going to swap out, uh, more rural areas for more suburban areas closer to Richmond. So anyways, interesting seat with the first district. I think even if the lines don’t change, I think this is likely a very competitive seat in 2026.

13:40.95

Sam Shirazi

Now, before the lines changing, I mean, I think those were the two districts that Democrats, both in Virginia nationally, thought that they had a decent chance of flipping. However,

13:52.37

Sam Shirazi

The point of of changing the lines was not just for the 1st and 2nd District. It was potentially to get more seats out of Virginia. And I think the big debate among Virginia Democrats is probably going to be what kind of map do they want? And we’ve heard we’ve heard a lot of rhetoric about wanting a 10-1 map. So what does 10-1 mean?

14:11.93

Sam Shirazi

That means the Virginia Democrats would re-write a map so that the districts in Virginia would elect 10 Democrats and one Republican. Currently, there are five democrats there are five Republicans and six Democrats, so we have a six five map.

14:46.06

Sam Shirazi

Currently in the 5th Congressional District, the Congressman is John McGuire. He was elected in 2024 after he defeated the incumbent Bob Good in a primary, and that was a very... a competitive primary, but John McGuire was able to pull it out. I mean, realistically, John McGuire is a pretty, know, right wing member of Congress, uh, for a district like this.

15:05.82

Sam Shirazi

However, it’s not, ultimately it’s kind of a light red district. And even, uh, in this election in 2025, Earl Sears carried this district. So Spanberger didn’t win it.

15:16.29

Sam Shirazi

And I think realistically, yeah know, unless there’s like a really crazy blue wave, Under the current lines, I think the Republicans have a decent shot of of retaining the seat.

15:25.62

Sam Shirazi

And it you know it could be in single digits potentially, but I think it’s very hard. you know Obviously, in 2025, there was a blue wave in Virginia. Even under that scenario, Spanberger wasn’t able to carry the district. So I think it’s it’s kind of hard to imagine the current lines Democrats being able to flip this seat. However, we may not be under the current lines in 2026. Why is that? Because obviously Democrats may want to change this district. And I think there’s a lot of different ways you can redraw it You could kind of make it a Charlottesville to Roanoke district and kind of just include some urban areas.

15:58.75

Sam Shirazi

And then the rest would just be, you you know, the rural areas would be put into the other Republican districts the Democrats are willing to keep. But the fifth would just become a essentially a blue sink. You put all these like blue areas together and you create a blue leaning district. It probably wouldn’t be overwhelmingly blue, but I think it would be blue enough that the Democrats would win. And I think that possibility was enticing enough that a former congressman has decided to run again, and that congressman is Tom Perriolo. He was first elected in 2008 in the blue wave that carried a lot of Democrats across the line across the country in 2020.

16:35.87

Sam Shirazi

two thousand and eight However, he lost in 2010 after the red wave in 2010. And the district was redrawn a little bit. And I think ever since then, there’s been a couple times where Democrats have tried to win it, but it’s essentially become a red seat.

16:49.02

Sam Shirazi

However, I think former Congressman Perriello is very interested in the comeback. And again, he’s gotten a lot of endorsements. I think pretty quickly people are getting behind him. And so, again, this is one of those districts where it seems like Perriello has a good shot of winning the primary. and i think it’s going to be interesting if the district changes. You know, I think Perriello certainly has a good shot of winning this primary and potentially the general election, depending on how how the lines look.

17:16.19

Sam Shirazi

And I will just tell you a little bit about a fun fact about myself. I was actually in Charlottesville in 2008. And I saw how Tom Perriello’s campaign was run back then. It was a good campaign. i think he outran the top of the ticket and he was able to flip that race in in a really close race. And I think most people didn’t expect him to flip it. And so I think it was really interesting watching that race in 2008. And now here we are all the way back in 2025, 2026. And we could have Tom Perriello back in Congress.

17:43.77

Sam Shirazi

Why? Because when he was elected the first time, he was relatively young. And you know he’s not too old even today, even though he was a congressman. 15 years ago. So definitely interesting seeing a couple of these comebacks, both in the second and fifth district. And I think those three districts, you know I don’t want to say it’s impossible for someone else to win the nomination, but I think the nominees are starting to get set to a certain extent in those districts. I think in the second district, Elaine Luria seems like she has the best shot of winning the nomination. In the first district, it seems like it’s Shannon Taylor.

18:15.27

Sam Shirazi

And in the fifth district, it’s Tom Perriolo. All right, so here’s the big wild card. The big wild card is the 6th District because there’s a lot of different ways it could be shaped if the maps change. Currently, the member of Congress is Republican Ben Klein, and this is a pretty red district.

18:34.20

Sam Shirazi

I think... No matter how big of a blue wave, it’s almost impossible for the Democrats to be able to flip this seat because it’s just currently as it’s drawn, it’s a lot of red areas. i mean, there are some blue pockets, but really it’s it’s a pretty red area. And so I think under the current maps, the Congressman Klein would be pretty safe.

18:51.07

Sam Shirazi

However, obviously, if the Democrats go all in, and they say, you know what, we’re going to draw a 10-1 map, that means 10 Democrats, one Republican, the sixth could become a Democratic-leaning seat. And I think that’s really interesting because i don’t think it has a clear front-runner in terms of who would be the nominee if the sixth district...

19:11.84

Sam Shirazi

became more of a Democratic-leaning district. I did want to throw out some names of people who may run. So Sam Razul, he’s a delegate from Roanoke. He has already announced that he’s exploring running for Congress. He basically left it open. He’s like, I don’t know if I’m going to run in the 5th, the 6th, or possibly another district. So I think... Sam Razul would be an interesting candidate from Roanoke.

19:33.40

Sam Shirazi

There’s talk that a former delegate, Wendy Goditas, potentially could be running for Congress. and i And if I had to guess, she would probably be running in the 6th District. so And she comes from more northern Virginia, kind of closer to Winchester area.

19:47.48

Sam Shirazi

So it’d be the other end of the Shenandoah Valley. So that would be kind of interesting if she decided to run. There’s another candidate, Beth Macy. She was known for being a journalist and an author, and she wrote a book called Dope Six. So I think she’s she’s also gotten a good amount of coverage in terms of her run. And so I think the Six could be a really competitive primary, again, depending how the lines are drawn.

20:09.26

Sam Shirazi

And so I think that’s kind of the wild card right now. You know, the first, second, fifth, we kind of know what’s going to happen. The sixth is, you know, totally unpredictable. And, you know, I think i think the question really comes down to how aggressive did the Democrats become in drawing the lines. And the reason there might be some tension is...

20:27.52

Sam Shirazi

You know, my sense is the House of Delegates and the state Senate Democrats are pretty, pretty ambitious. You know, you you heard Speaker Don Scott of the House of Delegates say that he’s looking into a 10-1 map.

20:39.28

Sam Shirazi

State Senator Luis Lucas has been very vocal about wanting a 10-1 map. So I wouldn’t be surprised if the General Assembly starts drafting something that looks close to 10-1. I will be curious to see how Governor Spanberger fits into all this. I think she has been a little less vocal about being you know super pro- changing the lines. I think she’s been a little bit more measured. My sense from her is that she’s basically going to say, you know, let the voters decide. We’re going to do a referendum. If the voters say yes, I’ll respect it. If the voters say no, i I’ll respect it.

21:25.18

Sam Shirazi

And I think that, you know The question is going to be, do the Democrats release the map before the referendum? Because I don’t think they’re under any legal obligation to release the map. They’re basically telling the voters, what you’re voting on is, should the General Assembly have the power to draw new maps?

21:41.38

Sam Shirazi

Yes or no? And if the voters say yes, I mean, the the General Assembly can draw the maps after the referendum. And you know I’ll be curious to see how much does... Governor Spanberger get involved? Does she just kind of defer to the General Assembly? Does she just end up saying, you know, whatever they they come up with is fine with me? You know, I think that’s all going to have to get worked out. I’m sure the National Democrats are going to be pushing for as many seats as possible out of Virginia because the Democrats don’t have that many opportunities to be able to pick up seats through redistricting. And so it’s just like a lot of interesting dynamics next year for the midterms. And, you know, Virginia is is going to be on the front lines because a lot of these states, you know, frankly, either because of

22:25.72

Sam Shirazi

gerrymandering or because of these independent commissions, I mean, there aren’t that many competitive races next year. I mean, there are some, obviously, but the map is not what it used to be. I mean, in certain years, you might have dozens of seats seats that might be up for play.

22:39.82

Sam Shirazi

I think this next cycle of the midterms, I think given redistricting and gerrymandering and all that, I mean, we could be seeing a relatively smaller playing field and Virginia could be a decent chunk of the playing field.

22:52.63

Sam Shirazi

And depending on how the lines are drawn, I mean, some of the districts might not even be that competitive. I mean, if if you really wanted to start gerrymandering, it’s possible the second district is not going to be that competitive. And, you know Democrats don’t even really have to try that hard. I mean, I’m sure they will still work to win that seat, but it makes your life a lot easier when you’re able to draw the lines the way you want them to.

23:13.11

Sam Shirazi

And so I think there’s a lot of unknowns about the midterms. Does Virginia redistrict? Does it not redistrict? If it redistricts, how much does it redistrict? These are all kind of unknowns right now. I think behind the scenes, you know, the big movers and shakers are trying to figure out their next moves. You’ve already seen all these announcements. We may get more announcements.

23:33.46

Sam Shirazi

And I think all that is kind of building up to a really exciting midterm for Virginia because it’s going to be one of the top focuses for the house battleground.

23:43.73

Sam Shirazi

You know as I noted, there’s a state Senate, there’s this a U S Senate seat up for election in 2026 with Mark Warner. i think realistically, that’s probably going to be pretty uncompetitive. given the environment and given Mark Warner being an incumbent. So not super interesting for the Senate side of things, but I think in the House side next year in Virginia, it’s going to be really, really interesting. It’s going to be one of the top states people will be talking about.

24:06.38

Sam Shirazi

And particularly if we have the referendum, think it’s going to be a really interesting campaign. Obviously, the Republicans are going to and be totally against it. The Democrats are going to go all in. try to win these, the referendum so that they can win some more seats.

24:20.45

Sam Shirazi

And so, yeah, all that’s to say is Virginia, the elections never stop. We just, you know, it’s hard to believe that it’s been, you know, less than two months since we had the election this year. And we’re already talking about primaries and special elections and referendums. And, you know, it just never ends in Virginia. I appreciate everyone who’s been listening to me this year. I think,

24:40.27

Sam Shirazi

I’ll have an episode next week. I’m starting to kind of wind down the podcast, at least for this year. i will have one more to just kind of give you final thoughts before the holidays. Hopefully people have found the podcast interesting. You know, I’m Virginia elections. Obviously it’s one of those things that, You never know what’s going to happen. And I think we’re going to have a fun 2026 in store for everyone. Serious. I mean, it’s fun to to kind of follow everything, but it’s obviously very serious too, because these are going to decide really important issues. So anyways, appreciate everyone who’s listened to this episode. This has been Federal Fallout and I’ll join you next time.

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