00:00.77

Sam Shirazi

Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode we will look at the most competitive races in the Virginia House of Delegates this year.

00:12.77

Sam Shirazi

The main focus will be a preview of the general election. I will do a separate episode about the primaries in the Virginia House of Delegates after the filing deadline passes. So, why should you care about the Virginia House of Delegates elections in Virginia?

00:27.52

Sam Shirazi

Well, here is a fun fact. If Democrats flip the governor's mansion this year in Virginia, it will be the first time an incoming Democratic governor will have a trifecta since 1989 when Doug Wilder won.

00:41.41

Sam Shirazi

So a trifecta means that the Democrats have the governor's mansion, they have the state Senate, and they have the House of Delegates. And so right off the bat, whoever is it is the governor, if they're a Democrat, most likely at this point, it looks like the nominee will be former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, if she gets elected, she will be able to pass bills very quickly because the Democrats have the State Senate, they have the House of Delegates.

01:04.89

Sam Shirazi

She can send her priorities over to the General Assembly and they can work on them. The only time the Democrats have had a trifecta since Doug Wilder was elected was a brief period between 2019 and 2021 when Northam had And when ralph northam had one and Just keep in mind, he didn't come in with a trifecta. That was after the Democrats won in 2019.

01:26.86

Sam Shirazi

So there was only a two-year period in the last 35-plus years where the Democrats have had a trifecta in Virginia. And one of the big problems Governor Youngkin faced while he was governor is that he never had a private trifecta.

01:40.09

Sam Shirazi

And so the Democrats were able to block his bills, and he wasn't able to pass much of his legislative agenda. So in addition, besides being able to pass bills, which is obviously very important, if Democrats win the House of Delegates this year in Virginia, they can place three constitutional amendments on the ballot next year for the voters to decide on amendments and changes to the Virginia Constitution. And the three amendments would be one on reproductive rights, one on marriage equality, and one on

02:11.86

Sam Shirazi

Restoring voting rights to people after they're released from prison serving a felony sentence. Currently, Virginia is one of the only states that bars a prisoner, if someone convicted of felony for the rest of their lives from voting. Unless the governor restores it, the amendment would automatically restore rights once someone is finished with their sentence. So there's a lot on the line, not just...

02:34.47

Sam Shirazi

for the next governor that's coming in, but really for the Virginia Constitution, if those ballots get on the, and if those amendments get on the ballot, I mean, that has long-term implications and it's very difficult to amend the Virginia Constitution. So I think the Virginia House Delegates doesn't get a lot of attention or you know there's some talk that Democrats might be able to pick up seats, but no one really talks about the stakes and why it's important.

02:58.79

Sam Shirazi

for the Virginia House Delegates elections to happen and and what they mean in the grand scheme of things. So I think it's important to not just focus on the horse race, even though most of this podcast is going to be looking at the horse race and who's up, who's down, which districts look competitive.

03:14.57

Sam Shirazi

I did want to mention that you know there are real things on the line and real policies that will be affected by who's elected in the Virginia House of Elections. Having said that, let's turn to the current lay of the land because I know people want to know what are the districts that are really going to be competitive this year.

03:30.30

Sam Shirazi

And so to keep in mind, all 100 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates are up for election. And currently Democrats have a 51-49 majority. But only a handful of those seats will be competitive.

03:44.02

Sam Shirazi

And there are currently eight seats that but former Vice President Harris won in 2024 that Republicans currently hold. And obviously, Democrats are going to be on the offense trying to potentially flip those eight seats.

03:57.20

Sam Shirazi

I think realistically, at this point, there are a few Democratic seats that might be competitive, and I'll talk about them. But I think given the environment, where the party out of the White House typically does well in Virginia elections and some of the issues we've talked about with the firing of federal workers, I think there's a sense that Democrats start off with an advantage in the House of Delegates elections and that if anything, they have the opportunity to flip some seats and we'll we'll talk about which seats might be in play.

04:24.35

Sam Shirazi

Having said that, it's not a given that Democrats will win all the Harris seats that former Vice President Harris won in 2024, or even that they'll flip the majority of them. I think there's a lot of factors you have to look at.

04:36.94

Sam Shirazi

You have to look at the fact that Virginia is more Democratic-leaning in federal elections than state elections. So I think people are more likely to vote for Republicans for state elections in Virginia as as compared to federal elections.

04:49.75

Sam Shirazi

Most of the seats that are competitive have incumbent Republicans who've won before. So that's always more difficult to defeat an incumbent. And there's always the possibility of ticket splitting. So there's something called you know ancestral Republican areas, typically in the suburbs where people used to vote for Republicans.

05:05.76

Sam Shirazi

Maybe they didn't love that Donald Trump was a Republican nominee. They might might not have voted for Donald Trump for president in 2024, but for local offices or for state offices, they would be willing to vote for a Republican.

05:19.55

Sam Shirazi

So all that is to say, like when you see the Harris number, I wouldn't kind of fixate on it. The fact that Harris won a district doesn't automatically mean that the Democrats are going win it this year.

05:30.20

Sam Shirazi

And we saw that in twenty twenty three where there were a lot of districts that former President Biden won in 2020 that the Democrats weren't able to win. So just wanted to keep that in mind as we go through these districts.

05:43.64

Sam Shirazi

So let's do a deep dive into the most competitive districts. And I'll kind of go in the order of what I think is more competitive to least competitive. Although, you know, honestly, it's hard to tell right now in some of these districts, we don't necessarily know who the Democratic nominee is going to be yet.

06:01.04

Sam Shirazi

So I will start off and and I'm starting off with the seats currently held by Republicans. I will kind of briefly talk about a few Democratic held seats at the end, but I really do think most of the competitive seats are going to be on the Republican side and they're going to have a lot of defense to do, even though they're already in the minority.

06:20.01

Sam Shirazi

So let's begin with what I think is probably the most likely seat to flip in 2025. And that is House District 57 in Western Henrico and Eastern Goochland.

06:34.35

Sam Shirazi

And so the current incumbent is Republican David Owen. He won that seat in 2023 by about two points. And the thing that I think most people think, the reason why most people think that this is gonna be a pretty competitive seat is the fact that former Vice President Harris won the district by almost nine points.

06:59.14

Sam Shirazi

And so we're talking about Richmond suburbs, very quickly moving towards the Democrats. This was a district that used to be much more friendly to the Republicans, but every cycle is becoming more and more friendly to the Democrats to the point that the Democrats, you know, generally 2024 was not a great year, but in this district, Vice President Harris actually did better than President Biden in 2020. So she improved on President Biden's performance, even though she did four points worse in Virginia overall. So it just gives you a sense of how much more democratic the seat has become

07:32.63

Sam Shirazi

And a couple things to keep in mind. I just wanted to mention that in 2023, this district was the one where Susanna Gibson ran. And obviously there was a story that came out about her doing some online videos that were consensual with her husband that were meant to be private, but eventually...

07:51.67

Sam Shirazi

The recordings were made of them and they were released. And so obviously that was a big story. I think a lot of people kind of fixate on that story. And, you know, that's the reason the Democrats lost the seat.

08:02.43

Sam Shirazi

I think it's very hard to know. It ended up being a pretty close election. And, you know, you never know when something like that comes out, like, it could have been that the seat was going to be close regardless and and she may have lost some voters here but she gained other voters who were sympathetic to she was what she was going through. So long story short, I think there were a lot of structural issues with the district.

08:26.16

Sam Shirazi

The fact that part of the district is in eastern Goochland, which is a very republican area, it kind of outweighed the fact that most of the district in Henrico County was more democratic. So I think it was a it was going to be a tough seat for the Democrats to win in 2023. Now, having said that, I think the district has come, even in these two years, a long way particularly eastern Goochland. So Goochland County is like a really red county.

08:52.67

Sam Shirazi

in the Richmond suburbs, but every cycle it's becoming a little less Republican. And I think it's just gotten to the point where this cycle, if it's a good year for Democrats statewide, I mean, it's gonna be hard for the Republicans to hold this seat, particularly because if former Congresswoman Spanberger is the Democratic nominee. She comes from this area in Western Henrico, so you think she's going to be doing pretty well at the top of the ticket.

09:16.73

Sam Shirazi

And it's you know if if she carries the district by, let's say, five points, which is being you know pretty cautious, she's likely going to carry the district by more than five points. But even five points, it's hard to see ticket splitting to the extent that David Owen is going to be able to win the seat. So Anyways, long story short, I think that this district, House District of East 57, is the one that's most likely to flip.

09:41.46

Sam Shirazi

There are two Democrats currently running. We'll see who ends up winning the primary. I'll talk about that in a different episode. But I just wanted to know that there could be a Democratic primary in this district.

09:52.78

Sam Shirazi

so let's move on to the next district, which is also in the Richmond suburbs in Chesterfield and Hopewell, House District 75. The incumbent is Republican Carrie Conyer. And I think the Republicans feel that she's a pretty strong incumbent and has a good brand in the area. So they're hoping that she might be able to...

10:10.81

Sam Shirazi

Hold on to the seat, even though Vice President Harris won this seat by about six points in 2024. Conyer carried the district by six points when she ran in 2023. So you see how there was a lot of ticket splitting, probably a lot of decent amount of folks who came out and voted for Carrie Conyer in 2023.

10:30.24

Sam Shirazi

Some of them ended up voting for Vice President Harris. Obviously, Democrats strategy is to just get those people to become straight ticket Democratic voters. Carrie Conyers is going to hope that she can win some of those people back, even if they voted for Vice President Harris.

10:44.34

Sam Shirazi

The district's interesting. So it has a pretty sizable African-American population. It's about one third African-American. Obviously, Democrats need to get out those voters. That's the bulk of the Democratic base.

10:55.56

Sam Shirazi

I think the thing that that is interesting is there is also a pretty hefty suburban portion of the district. And those voters are really moving away from the Republicans and towards the Democrats, similar to House District 57.

11:10.30

Sam Shirazi

Another House District 75 is in the Richmond suburbs. And the question becomes, you know, are those voters just abandoning the Republicans in the state elections because they're frustrated by what's going on in D.C.? Or do they kind of make a difference and say, well, we may not like what President Trump's doing, but we like our local delegate.

11:30.01

Sam Shirazi

I mean, obviously the Republicans are hoping there'll be some ticket splitting and and people will who voted for Carrie Conyer in the past will vote for her again. Democrats are hoping people will just vote straight ticket.

11:40.79

Sam Shirazi

We'll see. We'll see what ends up happening. I did want to note there's also likely going to be a Democratic primary in this district, so we'll talk it about it at another podcast when I'm going over the House of Delegates primaries.

11:53.64

Sam Shirazi

Okay. Let's move on to a district that is in primarily Williamsburg area. So this is House District 71. seventy one So it's basically Williamsburg and some of the suburbs of Williamsburg.

12:08.87

Sam Shirazi

And in 2024, former Vice President Harris carried the district by about four and a half points. In 2023, the current incumbent Republican, Amanda Batten, won the district by about two points. And I think in 2023, that was a lot closer than people had expected.

12:27.78

Sam Shirazi

So Amanda Batten is another incumbent where the Republicans think that she has a good local brand and she's able to win some voters who might vote Democratic for president. She might be able to convince them to vote for her.

12:38.85

Sam Shirazi

But I think the fact that she only won by 2% 2020,

12:42.82

Sam Shirazi

2023 was interesting because that wasn't necessarily considered a top tier battleground in 2023. But obviously this year with the presidential number and also the 2023 number, House District 71 will be a top tier battleground.

12:56.29

Sam Shirazi

And the Democrat that lost in 2023, her name's Jessica Anderson. She's running again in 2025. twenty twenty five So, you know, Democrats, a lot of their base will be college students and other people in Williamsburg, who are kind of more of a college town type vibe area, that's who they need to get out.

13:17.14

Sam Shirazi

Amanda Batten, she's going to focus on the rural parts of the district, which are pretty red, and then she'll have to win over some of the suburban voters who may have voted for Vice President Harris, but she's going to hope that they're going to, even if they vote for former Congressman Spanberger, they might split their ticket. So again, a district where she's hoping there might be some ticket splitting and the Republicans are hoping that their incumbent, Amanda Batten, would it be able to win in this district.

13:43.19

Sam Shirazi

Okay, so we will move on to another district with an incumbent Republican. This is House District 82. So this is primarily based in Petersburg and some of the rural areas surrounding Petersburg.

13:56.09

Sam Shirazi

The incumbent is Kim Taylor. in 2021 then she was reelected in twenty twenty one and then she was reelected in 2023, in a very close election, she won by just 78 votes after a recount.

14:12.06

Sam Shirazi

And the Democrat who ran against her in 2023, Kimberly Pope Adams, is running again in 2025. twenty twenty five So another race where we're seeing a rematch.

14:23.70

Sam Shirazi

You'll notice that a few of these races, there's rematches from 2025, and there's not going to be a primary in either this district or the 71st district. So House District 82, Vice President Harris won it by about 4%.

14:39.47

Sam Shirazi

And the dynamics of this district are interesting. So you have Petersburg, which is known to be a a area with more African American voters. So that's the base of the Democratic Party in this district.

14:51.92

Sam Shirazi

And then the rural areas surrounding Petersburg, are much more working class white voters, which is more of the base of the Republican Party. So you you really kind of see this dynamic where it's it depends on which party is able to turn out their voters.

15:03.83

Sam Shirazi

I think the Republicans are feeling okay about this district because one, they think Kim Taylor is a pretty strong incumbent. And then two, this district, unlike some of most of the other districts we're going to be talking about, has been moving towards the Republicans. So that Republicans are gaining with white working class voters and they're making you know marginal gains, I would say with African American voters. So they, and this is a more working class district. So I think the Republicans feel this is the type of district we can win in the Trump era. It's not some of these,

15:31.72

Sam Shirazi

suburban districts that are really more well off that the Democrats are doing well in. This is more of a traditional working class district. I think we'll just have to see which party is able to turn out their voters.

15:45.89

Sam Shirazi

I guess the one thing I should note about this district is that there are a decent amount of military installations in and around the district. So I think The fact that some of the workers might be in the district might be affected.

15:59.76

Sam Shirazi

That's something that the Democrats would be able to use. And we'll see if Kimberly Pope Adams is able to win this time in this district with a rematch against Kim Taylor. Okay, let's move on to House District 89. This is in Hampton Roads based in Suffolk and Chesapeake.

16:17.99

Sam Shirazi

This is one of the few districts where a Republican is retiring. So incumbent Republican delegate Baxter Ennis is retiring. He won by 2% in 2023, but the Vice President Harris, former Vice President Harris, was able to win the district in 2024 by about three points.

16:35.65

Sam Shirazi

So again, type of district that's a little bit more working class, has a decent African-American population. There are a few Democrats running, so we'll see if there's a primary and who might win the primary.

16:46.58

Sam Shirazi

And there's also likely going to be a primary on the Republican side, so we can talk about those dynamics in another episode. but Again, it just depends how much of a swing there is against the Republicans based on some of the changes to the federal government and Hampton Roads area, military, they're going to be affected by some of the changes that are going on in D.C. So another district that I think is going to be interesting to watch how things shake out there.

17:14.61

Sam Shirazi

Okay, so all the districts I've talked about so far, I would say those are probably the top, top tier battlegrounds. Not to say that there aren't other districts that are going to be competitive and are going to be battlegrounds and and that could flip, but those are the real top ones.

17:29.48

Sam Shirazi

The next districts I'm going to talk about are more reach districts. And it a lot depends on who the candidates are and how much the parties end up investing in these races. So I will start with House District 86.

17:44.83

Sam Shirazi

So this is in Hampton and Pocosin in Hampton Roads. The current delegate is Republican A.C. Cardoza, and he won by a lot in 2023. He won by almost 13%, but there was a big swing in 2024. Democrats carried this district by about one point, or former Vice President Harris carried the district by about one point.

18:06.90

Sam Shirazi

And part of the difference in those numbers is because the district has a decent African-American population, I think, There was more turnout in a presidential year, and that helped the Democrats in this district in 2024. AC Cardozo also benefited in 2023 by the fact there was a really competitive state Senate seat in part of the district. And so that turn that led to a lot of Republican turnout.

18:30.33

Sam Shirazi

So just keep that in mind. I don't know how competitive this will be. It really just depends on... One, can Democrats turn out African-American voters in this district? And two, is there any sort of backlash to some of the changes to the federal government? And do we see that in Hampton Roads? So we'll see how competitive this race is.

18:50.20

Sam Shirazi

i did want to talk about another district in the Richmond suburbs. So this is House District 73. This is in Chesterfield. And I think a lot of people were surprised by this district specifically because it really...

19:05.49

Sam Shirazi

Most people did not expect the Democrats to carry this district in 2024. So former Vice President Harris won this district by one point. And that was after in 2023, the current incumbent Republican, Mark Early, won the district by 9% in 2023. So again, we're seeing we're seeing a big swing.

19:23.25

Sam Shirazi

Why? Because Chesterfield is a suburban district and it's just moving towards the Democrats.

19:29.65

Sam Shirazi

It used to be known as known as one of the most Republican counties in Virginia, But in the Trump era has become more democratic.

19:37.36

Sam Shirazi

And this part of Chesterfield, you have more upper income people, college educated voters, they're really swinging towards the Democrats.

19:50.28

Sam Shirazi

Okay, so speaking of suburban districts that have traditionally been Republican, I wanted to talk about House District 64. That is in Middle Stafford County, and this is the first Northern Virginia seat that we're going to be talking about.

20:03.95

Sam Shirazi

The current Republican delegate is Paul Milde, and he won in 2023 by 9%.

20:10.56

Sam Shirazi

In 2024, it was much closer and President Trump won the district by around 2%.

20:15.60

Sam Shirazi

So the reason i I want to talk about this district is Northern Virginia. So if you think about Northern Virginia, that is kind of the epicenter of where a lot of the federal fallout is happening and a lot of federal workers are are affected. And this district in Middle Stafford likely, and don't know the exact numbers, but imagine has a decent amount of federal workers.

20:34.65

Sam Shirazi

So this is a type of district that if we're seeing a big backlash to what's going on in D.C., Even though it's traditionally a Republican district, I think could be in play. And it's really one of those districts to keep an eye on if there's going to be a backlash to what the Republicans are doing in D.C.

20:53.58

Sam Shirazi

All right. I know I'm going through a lot of districts. I will go through the last ones a little bit more quickly just because I think it's not as clear how competitive these are going to be. I think a lot really just depends how big of a backlash there'll be to what's going on in D.C. So I'll talk about a couple Northern Virginia seats.

21:11.68

Sam Shirazi

So there's House District 30. This is in Western Loudoun and Western Falk here. The incumbent Republican delegate is Gary Higgins. He was elected in 2023. The 2024 margin was about Trump plus one.

21:27.99

Sam Shirazi

And this is more of a traditionally Republican part of Loudoun County. But again, Loudoun, Northern Virginia, lot of federal workers. If you're seeing a backlash, this is the type of place where there could be a backlash.

21:40.18

Sam Shirazi

And so we'll just have to wait and see how big of an of a backlash is there to what's going on in D.C. And, you know, as I mentioned, that the title of this podcast is Federal Fallout.

21:50.68

Sam Shirazi

And I think a lot of these districts will will have to see basically how big the federal fallout is to what's going on in D.C.

21:59.76

Sam Shirazi

The last thing I should mention about this district is the Democrat running. His name's John McAuliffe. I don't think he's going to face a primary. He's raised a decent amount of money. And I think if he's able to kind of mobilize voters in Western Loudoun who are maybe affected by what's going on in D.C., he'll have a decent shot in this district, even though it's traditionally been more of a Republican district.

22:22.73

Sam Shirazi

All right. So stick with me. We got another Northern Virginia seat. This is House District 22. And this is in middle Prince William County, which is one of the few remaining, and I would say, traditionally Republican areas of Northern Virginia.

22:37.63

Sam Shirazi

The current delegate is Ian Lovejoy. He won in 2023 by about five and a half points. But the 2024 margin roughly... was roughly Harris plus one.

22:50.38

Sam Shirazi

And so I think this is a type of district that on a kind of good night, again, Democrats would be able to flip. Really depends on are the Republicans having a tough night with what's going on in D.C.? Are federal workers fed up? Are they coming out?

23:07.14

Sam Shirazi

And the one thing to keep in mind with this district is you have former delegate Elizabeth Guzman. She ran for state Senate. And then last year she ran for Congress and she came up short in both those efforts at the primary.

23:22.09

Sam Shirazi

But she's trying to make a comeback and try to win this district that is fairly diverse and has a decent Hispanic population. So we'll see how that goes. Having said that, again, it is a more traditional Republican district.

23:33.66

Sam Shirazi

So I wouldn't assume it's necessarily going to flip, but I do think type of district, if there's a blue wave, could flip in November. Okay, two more Republican districts, then we'll talk about a few Democratic districts.

23:48.34

Sam Shirazi

I wanted to talk about House District 66. This is in Spotsylvania, just south of Fredericksburg. You have Republican Delegate Bobby Oroch. He was elected in 2023 with 11 half However,

24:05.75

Sam Shirazi

however President Trump only won the district by about 2% in 2024. twenty twenty four So you're seeing that this is a district that is traditionally Republican, maybe on for the state elections voted Republican, but for whatever reason, the federal elections is more Democratic and President Trump isn't as popular in this type of district, particularly because there probably are so some federal workers here that are also affected by what's going on. And the Democrats have Nicole Cole, who is a on the Spotsylvania school board. So I think she's an elected official and and would bring her previous experience to the to the campaign trail. So think it could be competitive.

24:48.04

Sam Shirazi

A lot of these districts, it's really hard right now to know because we don't quite have all the information about where the parties are spending their money. I think that's one thing to look at is our party spending here.

25:00.60

Sam Shirazi

and are they allocating their resources to this district versus the other district? you know I know I've talked to about a lot of these districts. A lot also depends on how much of a backlash there is to what's going on in DC. you'll You'll hear me saying it as kind of a broken record, but it really is true because so many of these districts are dependent on federal government for jobs and spending.

25:22.72

Sam Shirazi

Okay, last district that's a Republican held one and is a different district, different part of Virginia. It is House District 41 that's based in Blacksburg and some rural parts of Southwest Virginia. It's really the only competitive seat in Southwest Virginia.

25:39.10

Sam Shirazi

The current delegate is Chris Obenshain. He was elected in 2023 by about one point, a very close race where he defeated Democrat Lily Franklin by 183 votes.

25:53.58

Sam Shirazi

But Lily Franklin is back this time and she is seeking a rematch. The district is about it's kind of this strange district because you have the college town of Blacksburg, which is pretty Democratic, and then you have these rural red areas.

26:06.80

Sam Shirazi

And so President Trump actually carried the district in 2024. But I would caution a little bit. 2024 was a little bit weird in that Republicans did better than expected with young people. And it's unclear if they're going to be able to keep doing that.

26:20.82

Sam Shirazi

So I think if there's a backlash among young voters, this is the type of district that's going to be put into play. And then the other thing I should mention, both with this district and the Williamsburg district, is that there are lot of college students in these districts. And oftentimes they're not super engaged in politics. They may be aware there's a governor's race.

26:40.17

Sam Shirazi

And the thing with Virginia is it has same-day voter registration. So even if a voter doesn't meet the voter registration deadline, they can go down to their local precinct.

26:50.50

Sam Shirazi

They can fill out a voter registration form. It will be a provisional ballot, so it doesn't automatically get counted. the registrar would review the voter registration. If the person is eligible to be a voter,

27:05.99

Sam Shirazi

Then the voter's ballot will be counted. And we saw that in 2023 where Lily Franklin was able to turn out a lot of students. A lot of them use same day registration. It wasn't quite enough for her to win in 2023, but it was a very close race. And I think a lot of people were surprised by the margin.

27:23.50

Sam Shirazi

And Lily Franklin did better in 2023 than most people expected. And I think that's why in 2025, even though this is a Trump district, it's going to get a lot of attention because if she's able to get, if Lily Franklin is able to get students to come out and vote, this is the type of district that could flip. So As you can see, we've talked a lot about Republican districts. I think realistically, those are go the seats that are going to be most in play this year. And the Republicans are in a tough spot because they have a lot of incumbents. They have a lot of incumbents they have to defend.

27:54.20

Sam Shirazi

They have a lot of Republicans in areas where there are a lot of federal jobs and are dependent on federal spending. And so if there's a backlash, like those those Republicans may be feeling the heat in November.

28:04.37

Sam Shirazi

Having said all that, I don't think it's necessarily impossible for... the Republicans to win a majority. I think it's going to be difficult, but I don't think it's impossible. There are a few seats in play if the Republicans have a good night, where if they have if they're able to flip two seats, they'll be able to get a majority.

28:23.94

Sam Shirazi

So I'll talk first about House District 21. This is in Western Prince William County. The incumbent is Josh Thomas. And I think This is the seat that probably the Republicans have the best shot at flipping.

28:39.02

Sam Shirazi

And Josh Thomas in 2023, he was able to win in the closest race by a Democrat. He won by, but it was still a three and a half point win in 2023. And then former Vice President Harris won the district by about five and a half points.

28:53.59

Sam Shirazi

I think why the Republicans feel they might have a shot here is this is, it's a kind of a combination district where there's some suburban, more well-off voters, and then there's working class and also Hispanic areas. And I think the Republicans feel like they're doing better in the working class Hispanic areas.

29:08.92

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, in theory, they might be able to flip the seat. I think the issue for the Republicans is Josh Thomas is pretty strong incumbent. And then obviously, Western Prince William County in Northern Virginia. A lot of workers affected by what's going on in DC.

29:21.92

Sam Shirazi

So I don't know how much momentum the Republicans are going to have in a district like this to try to come in and flip it. Similar story with House District 65. This is in Fredericksburg.

29:32.82

Sam Shirazi

the Incumbent is Delegate Josh Cole. He won by 6% in 2023. Former Vice President Harris won the district by almost nine points 2024.

29:45.42

Sam Shirazi

Pretty tough numbers for the Republicans. Again, Northern Virginia, federal workers, and Fredericksburg is also a college town. So I think all those things make this a difficult seat for the Republicans to try to come in and flip.

29:56.32

Sam Shirazi

Last district I will talk about, thanks for everyone who's cook gone through all these districts with me, is House District 97. That is in Virginia Beach. The incumbent is democrat Democratic Delegate Michael Fegans. He won by about 5% in 2023.

30:13.04

Sam Shirazi

Former Vice President Harris won the district by about 8% in 2024. And if you think about it, Virginia Beach, sometimes the Republicans are able to win these difficult seats because turnout might not be there or because they're able to convince voters because Virginia Beach is more of an area that sees swings between elections. I think the problem, again, for the Republicans is that Virginia Beach, military-dependent district, federal A lot of federal employees, federal dollars in this district. So again, I just think where the Republicans have to win this year are tough districts where they're just impacted by what's going on with the federal government.

30:50.74

Sam Shirazi

So I don't want to say it's impossible for the Republicans to win a majority, but I do think right now it is a a pretty steep hill for them to climb. And as you as you saw, most of the districts I talked about have Republican incumbents.

31:05.19

Sam Shirazi

And realistically, you know one strategy Republicans could could say to themselves is, we have a lot of incumbents. The incumbents are going to expect to get support from the party. And we should just focus on protecting our incumbents and possibly minimizing our losses so that next election, we will have a chance to win back the House of Delegates. Because I mean, it's very early. It's hard to know what's going to happen. But I think one of the dangers for the Republicans is if there's a big wave, Democrats pick up a lot of seats.

31:36.06

Sam Shirazi

you know Once you get into a hole in the House of Delegates, it might be hard hard to dig out of that hole. It might take a few cycles. And I think Republicans don't want to be in that position where there they're in a pretty big hole in the House of Delegates.

31:48.65

Sam Shirazi

And the reason I'm sounding a little bit more optimistic for the Democrats is because on Tuesday of this week, there was a special election in Pennsylvania for a state Senate seat, and the Democrats were able to flip that seat. And that was a pretty Republican district.

32:08.22

Sam Shirazi

I think President Trump won the district by about 15 points in 2024. Now, special elections are always weird, but I mean, when you're seeing Democrats flip seats like that, I think that should give Republicans some warning signs.

32:21.96

Sam Shirazi

I think another warning sign for the Republicans was that the nomination of Elise Stefanik to be ambassador to UN was pulled. So Elise Stefanik, she's a house member from New York.

32:34.95

Sam Shirazi

She was nominated to be UN n ambassador, but the Republicans started getting a little nervous about the special election for her house seat in New York. So they pulled the nomination, which is pretty drastic thing to do. And they wouldn't have done it unless there was a reason to do it. And so I think,

32:52.25

Sam Shirazi

you know If national Republicans are looking at that environment and getting nervous, you know obviously Virginia Republicans shouldn't be super comfortable because Virginia is much more impacted by what's going on at the federal government.

33:03.83

Sam Shirazi

Having said all that, on the next podcast, I do want to talk about something that's going to important that's going to happen this upcoming Tuesday in Wisconsin. Wisconsin will have a Supreme Court race. And oftentimes these races become very polarized and the national parties come in.

33:18.72

Sam Shirazi

The Wisconsin race, Elon Musk is spending money through his PAC. So I think it's basically going to be a a little bit of an early preview of what might happen in Virginia later on this year.

33:31.09

Sam Shirazi

And I think both sides are really going to be looking at this Wisconsin Supreme Court race to see what the political temperature is right now. So there's a lot going on. I'm going to try to do my best to cover it.

33:42.03

Sam Shirazi

I think keep an eye out for Tuesday with the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Who knows if the Republicans do well? Maybe I'll have to revise some of my thoughts on the House of Delegates. But right now, I would say Democrats are looking pretty good to keep their majority and possibly gain some seats.

33:59.63

Sam Shirazi

Having said that, it's not impossible for the Republicans to get a majority, but I do think it's going to be a pretty uphill climb for them to do that this year. so That's the Virginia House of Delegates. I tried to do my best to quickly go over the races. I will do more podcasts on the primaries for the House of Delegates, and I'm sure we'll talk more about the Virginia House Delegates later this year.

34:18.96

Sam Shirazi

So for now, that's it for Federal Fallout. Thank you for listening, and I will see you next week.

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