00:00.76

Sam Shirazi

Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode we will review the Virginia primary filing deadline and then we'll explore if the June primary might be the real contest this year in Virginia.

00:16.20

Sam Shirazi

So to kick things off, on the Democratic side, no other candidate filed for governor other than former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger. So she will be the Democratic nominee.

00:27.72

Sam Shirazi

There was not much suspense leading up to the Democratic filing deadline for governor.

00:34.66

Sam Shirazi

Congressman Bobby Scott had toyed with the idea of running, or at least didn't shoot down the idea, but it was pretty clear at the end that he was not going to be filing because he did not gather signatures.

00:47.79

Sam Shirazi

And so as expected, former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger is the Democratic nominee for governor. On the Republican side, things are not so simple.

00:59.24

Sam Shirazi

Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears had already filed her paperwork as soon as she could, and she has qualified for the primary ballot on the Republican side for governor.

01:08.58

Sam Shirazi

And there were two candidates also attempting to make the ballot, former delegate Dave LaRock and former state Senator Amanda Chase. And Dave LaRock on the filing deadline on Thursday,

01:21.49

Sam Shirazi

He said that he did not have enough signatures, so you need 10,000 signatures, valid signatures from voters registered in Virginia, including 400 from each congressional district.

01:34.26

Sam Shirazi

And Dave LaRock said he got about 9,000, which is obviously less than 10,000, so he did not end up filing. So he will not be on the primary ballot in Virginia.

01:45.80

Sam Shirazi

But Amanda Chase did file her paperwork. And so that means it's possible there could be a primary. And I wanted to just break down the process of what's going to happen next, because just because someone files the paperwork doesn't automatically mean that they're going to be on the ballot.

02:02.72

Sam Shirazi

So the biggest obstacle to be on the ballot in Virginia for statewide office this year is the 10,000 signature requirement. And I thought I'd take some time to really break down how to get those signatures and what they have what has to happen in order for those signatures to be counted as valid.

02:20.48

Sam Shirazi

So right off the back bat, the signatures have to be from registered voters in Virginia. You cannot just have random people signing the ballot. They do have to be registered to vote in Virginia.

02:33.36

Sam Shirazi

On top of that, 400 signatures have to come from each of Virginia's 11 congressional districts, basically to ensure that you have some geographic support across Virginia and it's not just concentrated in one part of Virginia.

02:48.20

Sam Shirazi

So those are kind of the basic requirements. But then the actual mechanics of filling out the signature form require some other things to have happen. First, the voter has to print their name.

03:01.68

Sam Shirazi

They have to sign their name. They have to give their full legal address where they reside, and they have to sign and date the signature petition. And if any one of those things are off, then that individual will not be counted towards the 10,000. And one of the things that can go wrong, people don't date it. People don't sign it. People give their partial address. People give their partial name. I mean, you know if you've ever done signature collection you know that there's a lot of ways that this could go wrong, particularly if people are in a rush, they're hurrying.

03:36.36

Sam Shirazi

The person collecting the signatures is doing a lot of different things and is not maybe focused. And and it it often there are many signatures when a candidate submits that are not valid.

03:49.05

Sam Shirazi

And it's often a good idea to submit way over the minimum to ensure that for whatever reason, if any of your signatures are knocked off, you still have the minimum to meet the requirements.

03:59.73

Sam Shirazi

And then on top of that, let's say you fill out a petition petition signature form all correctly, all the signatures are correct. The person who gathered the signatures has to get the petition signature form notarized.

04:11.30

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, that's not a huge barrier, but it does require someone who is authorized to be a notary in Virginia to sign that. And so that is, all those things have to be right. And if anything's wrong on the petition signature form,

04:27.30

Sam Shirazi

form, then the form can get thrown out, the signatures can get thrown out. And so all that's to say is there's a lot of things that could go wrong if you are just trying to get the bare minimum number of signatures.

04:39.14

Sam Shirazi

And the thing with Amanda Chase is she was trying to do this very quickly with a lot of volunteers who may or may not be familiar with all these different requirements. And so there's a lot of room for error.

04:50.66

Sam Shirazi

And I will say this about Amanda Chase. I think she put in her paperwork acknowledging that she does not exactly know how many signatures are valid. she does She's not gone through and validated them all because she said she didn't have the time to do that. So long way of saying...

05:08.03

Sam Shirazi

We're still not sure if she would be able to make the ballot even after she submitted her paperwork. And so what happens now is the signatures are in and they will be reviewed to see if they are actually valid signatures of registered voters in Virginia.

05:24.64

Sam Shirazi

And that can take some time because you have to go signature by signature. And we'll see what ends up happening. I don't think we are going to find out for few days what the final call is in terms of determining if Amanda Chase made the primary ballot.

05:40.96

Sam Shirazi

And Keep in mind, if she is determined not to make the ballot, we'll see if she pursues any appeals or legal remedies to try to get on the ballot. So this could still drag on a little bit longer, even though Amanda Chase has filed the paperwork to get on the ballot.

05:58.54

Sam Shirazi

So having said all that, we will just have to wait and see what happens. I think obviously if there is a primary on the Republican side for governor, I will probably do a whole episode on it because it's a big deal.

06:09.77

Sam Shirazi

And it will take a lot of the attention on the Republican side away from former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, who's the Democratic nominee, and shift that to the Republican primary and Republican Winston Sears and Amanda Chase will have to go after each other and and try to win that primary.

06:26.75

Sam Shirazi

Now, again, it may not happen. We just have to wait and see. So I don't want to spend too much time on it right now, but wanted to just give everyone an update of where things stand for the Republican primary for Governor.

06:38.68

Sam Shirazi

Okay, so now let's move on to lieutenant governor. So just because there isn't a primary for governor on the Democratic side, we already know that Abigail Spanberger will be the nominee, doesn't mean there is not going to be a Democratic primary.

06:51.14

Sam Shirazi

There will be a Democratic statewide primary in all parts of Virginia for lieutenant governor and attorney general. And lieutenant governor is the race that has a lot of candidates who have filed and all the candidates have that have made it, I will list them out.

07:08.47

Sam Shirazi

And we can just quickly talk about that. So the Democratic Party has confirmed that Alex Bastani, Ghazala Hashmi, Babur Lateef, Aaron Rouse,

07:19.96

Sam Shirazi

Victor Salgado, and LeVar Stoney have all made the primary ballot. So that is six candidates running on the Democratic side for lieutenant governor.

07:30.60

Sam Shirazi

It will be a crowded race, lot of different people running. I should note that Carl Eggleston had been running for lieutenant governor, but he indicated that he had to withdraw to due to to health reasons, so he will not be on the ballot. But still, we got six Democrats running for lieutenant governor.

07:48.50

Sam Shirazi

So a full ballot of Democrats, and it should be a pretty interesting race. I'll talk a little bit later on about what the primary might look like. So I might as well round up round out the Democratic primaries, at least for statewide office.

08:03.06

Sam Shirazi

For Attorney General, as I mentioned before, there will be a primary. Jay Jones and Shannon Taylor have both made the primary ballot. That will be a one-on-one contest. So the Democrats will have two statewide offices on the primary ballot, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General.

08:19.11

Sam Shirazi

On the Republican side, it appears there will also be a Lieutenant Governor primary. for the Republicans. So Pat Harity had already filed his paperwork and he has been confirmed to be on the ballot. And then right before the filing deadline, John Reed also filed his paperwork and that will be processed. I assume that he will likely be on the ballot. So I think the Republicans will have a statewide primary as well on the ballot in June.

08:49.17

Sam Shirazi

I should note that John Curran had also been running on the Republican side for lieutenant governor. I haven't heard a whole lot. I don't think that he filed his paperwork, but I'm sure I'll find out if I'm wrong about that. But it looks like it will be a one-on-one primary on the Republican side for lieutenant governor.

09:06.24

Sam Shirazi

And then for attorney general, there will not be a primary on the Republican side because Jason Miyares was the only candidate that filed. He's an incumbent. Obviously, it was unlikely that anyone serious would run against him.

09:20.21

Sam Shirazi

And so Jason Miyares will be the Republican nominee for attorney general. Okay, now I should talk about what the primary might look like and if it's it's the real contest this year in Virginia. And what I mean by that is a lot of people focus on November and there's going to be a lot fewer voters who come out on June 17th to vote in these primaries. Now, there'll probably be a several hundred thousand when you take both the Democrats and Republicans, but In the November election, there'll be at least 2 million, I'm guessing, if not more, probably well over 2 million people voting in the general election.

09:57.34

Sam Shirazi

But for the primaries, you might get, you're going to get less than 25% that. Probably, I'm guessing. I'm guessing we may get up to half a million in both primaries.

10:11.49

Sam Shirazi

And so we'll see. We'll see what those races look like. You know, on the Republican side, a lot depends on if there's actually going to be a primary for governor. If there's a primary for governor, you're going to see a lot more turnout.

10:24.01

Sam Shirazi

And we could see a lot more people showing up in June for the primary. If it's just lieutenant governor on the Republican side, I mean, it's hard to know how many people are going to come out for that.

10:36.16

Sam Shirazi

It's probably only and only going to be pretty hardcore Republicans who are going to show up for lieutenant governor primary in June.

10:42.24

Sam Shirazi

On the Democratic side, I think you're going to have more turnout because in the lieutenant governor's race, there's a lot of people running and there's also an attorney general race on the ballot. So you're going to have two of these races.

10:54.55

Sam Shirazi

And the reason I say, you know, is this the real primary? I don't want to get too far ahead of myself, but as I talked about in my special bonus episode about the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, I mean, things are looking kind of dicey for the Republicans.

11:10.97

Sam Shirazi

And so there's a decent chance that if former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger wins and she wins by a decent margin, she's just going to take the entire ticket with her. And so if that ends up happening,

11:23.53

Sam Shirazi

then but the primary in June is going to basically determine who's going to be the next Lieutenant Governor and the next Attorney General because they're going to win.

11:33.89

Sam Shirazi

They'll get on the ticket with Abigail Spanberger and then she's going to carry the ticket. And realistically, there isn't a whole lot of ticket splitting these days. And so the Democrats are just going to sweep the statewide offices. That's what's happened in the last four Virginia elections.

11:46.86

Sam Shirazi

The party that's won the governor's race has swept every other statewide office. So I say that because I think there's a lot on the line in the June 17th primary. Oftentimes people focus on the general election. a lot of people don't vote in these primaries.

12:00.12

Sam Shirazi

But I think it's really important that people vote both in the primary and the general election because obviously the and the person who wins the general election has to win the primary first. And so – You can't become lieutenant governor or attorney general without winning the primary.

12:14.62

Sam Shirazi

So I just think it's it's important that people not just focus on November. I think June 17th is going to be an important date as well. I should also quickly note that there will be a number of primaries for the House of Delegates. I will go over all that in a separate episode because that's a lot of different races.

12:32.44

Sam Shirazi

A lot of the House of Delegates races, however, will not have primaries because only one candidate has filed for either the Democrats or Republicans. So there's actually going to be a fair amount of House of Delegates races that won't have a primary in June.

12:45.77

Sam Shirazi

There will be some that that do have primaries, and obviously I'll go over that in another episode. I'm still waiting on the final list of primaries, which the Department of Elections will put out, but I'm guessing the majority of House of Delegates districts will not have a primary. So it's actually going to be the minority of districts that will have primaries, and that's because – incumbents A lot of them are in safe districts. They haven't faced primary challengers.

13:10.36

Sam Shirazi

And then the people who are running against them often, especially if it's a safe red or blue district, there isn't going to be a lot of people who want to run. And so there might not be a primary.

13:21.18

Sam Shirazi

Long story short, we'll have to wait and see what's going on with the House of Delegates. I'll obviously do an episode on the House of Delegates primaries once the final list of candidates who will appear on the primary ballot comes out.

13:33.88

Sam Shirazi

Okay. I wanted to just pivot a little bit and talk about one other thing before I wrap this episode up, and that is about the Republicans' chances this year. As you can tell, I've kind of taken the view that things are not going super great right now for the Republicans in Virginia.

13:51.01

Sam Shirazi

few reasons for that, obviously the firing of federal workers and their continued restructuring of the federal government – The name of this podcast is Federal Fallout. A lot of the premise of the podcast has been that that is going to have an impact in Virginia.

14:05.37

Sam Shirazi

So you have that. And then... This week, we also saw what President Trump called Liberation Day with an announcement that there was going to be a lot of tariffs.

14:16.81

Sam Shirazi

The stock market was not super pleased with that and stocks were down and there was a lot of turmoil in the financial markets. And a lot of companies are starting to get nervous because of the risk that that could lead to an economic downturn.

14:31.24

Sam Shirazi

And so that is also not in the background, and it is not necessarily great news for Virginia Republicans that people are also getting nervous about the overall economy while the Virginia economy is being delta blow by what DOGE is doing in DC. So there's a lot going on right now for Virginia Republicans.

14:53.29

Sam Shirazi

Now, having said all that, I don't want to pretend like the race is over. There's no chance that they could win. And so I did want to just talk a little bit and think through, you know, how they could potentially make a comeback in this race.

15:06.62

Sam Shirazi

I think one possibility is that DOGE wraps up its work. There have been reports that at the end of May, when Elon Musk's temporary employment with the federal government comes to an end, he may move aside.

15:19.60

Sam Shirazi

And there's a world where DOGE kind of does its thing and there's some restructuring in the federal government. And then that's kind of the end of it. And everyone moves on. So while it's a big story right now, maybe by November, it's not as big of a deal.

15:33.52

Sam Shirazi

That's possible. I think the danger in that is that obviously... The people who are affected, if you were laid off, you're still going to be probably upset about that in November. And the fact that the project might have ended is not really going to be that much comfort to you. So I'm not sure how much of a change game changer that would be for the Virginia Republicans, but it's something that could take it out of the news. And in theory, the less that there is news about layoffs of federal workers, the better it would be for Virginia Republicans.

16:03.89

Sam Shirazi

And I think the tariffs are tricky because right now they're causing a lot of havoc in the financial markets. Again, it's possible that either of the markets just take the take the tariff but the hit right now and then they kind of go on and and the economy continues. It's also possible. I think one of the reasons the stock market is a little bit in flux right now is people don't know what's the end game because on the one hand, President Trump seems really serious about these tariffs and he has always wanted to do tariffs and this is his chance to do tariffs.

16:35.83

Sam Shirazi

But on the other hand, you're also seeing hearing some of conflicting things like, well, these tariffs are just being used as a negotiating position and I think there's a hope that maybe – Countries will come and make deals with President Trump and then he'll lower the tariffs. And so in the long run, the tariffs aren't really going to be a huge deal because it's just going to cause some changes to some of the trading relationships and some of the rules between the U.S. s and other countries.

17:03.15

Sam Shirazi

But it's not going to fundamentally cause a huge shift in things. And again, i think that's a really open question. It's hard to know right now. I think the markets are starting to realize that maybe President Trump is serious about the tariffs. And I think some of the losses recently have been because the markets are coming to that realization. There was a hope that maybe and this was more of a negotiating tactic or that it wouldn't cause that big of an impact to the economy.

17:28.59

Sam Shirazi

think now we're seeing that it is going to have an impact on the economy. The question is, Is the impact in April and then things kind of recalibrate and everyone continues on and then the economy is pretty much okay in November? Or is this really kind of a long-term readjustment of the U.S. economy?

17:47.70

Sam Shirazi

It may cause short-term recession while things change. It's hard to know. Obviously, that's going to be one of those things that is going to be in the background of the Virginia governor's race.

17:58.54

Sam Shirazi

And so what are some of the issues that the Virginia Republicans are going to go be running on this year? And I think it's a little bit scattered. So sometimes you'll see them post about immigration. Sometimes you'll see them post about trans issues. Sometimes you'll see them post about COVID.

18:12.37

Sam Shirazi

Sometimes it's about President Biden. And so you have all these different things that the Virginia Republicans are throwing out there to just see what sticks.

18:24.83

Sam Shirazi

And I get it from a political standpoint that you're you're obviously trying to focus on other things, but I just don't know how much it's going to break through in a way that will connect to voters because obviously the Republicans had a fair amount of success when former President Biden was in office, but it's always easier to be in opposition. And now that the Republicans are in power in DC, they have a record they have to defend and

18:49.79

Sam Shirazi

I think posting about all these other things, while I get it, you're trying to fire up your base. I'm not sure how much that's going to resonate with voters in the middle who are expecting Republicans to be in charge of things and take some responsibility for some of the things that are going on.

19:04.86

Sam Shirazi

But I also wanted to to say that there is a universe where let's say Governor Youngkin gets really involved in the race this year, or maybe Elon Musk decides to donate a lot of money. Maybe he steps back after what happened in Wisconsin and isn't the face of the Republican Party, but he still is giving his money to the Republicans. And while obviously the Democrats will tie up try to tie the money to Musk, it's a little bit harder if he stays off the campaign trail to make the race about Elon Musk.

19:34.72

Sam Shirazi

And then you can see President Trump coming in, maybe campaigning in rural areas. And so the Republicans find a way to get their base excited and they turn out. And that'll at least you know put them in contention.

19:48.20

Sam Shirazi

I think the big question or the issue for the Republicans is if you look at 2021, things were going well for them. They basically had the political winds at their back. In the summer, there was the withdrawal from Afghanistan and all the issues that happened there.

20:03.82

Sam Shirazi

There was COVID. People were getting tired of all the COVID restrictions and the masks, and the Republicans really were able to use that energy. And then you had Governor Youngkin running He had his own money and he was getting a lot of support. And so you had a really good environment for Republicans in 2021.

20:21.38

Sam Shirazi

And still he only won by two, even though the Republicans had everything going for them in 2021. and He was able to reach independent voters and more moderate voters and convince them to vote for the Republicans.

20:35.42

Sam Shirazi

And the question is, like, how do the Republicans do that this year? and i mean, obviously, they're going to be talking about the issues they like to talk about immigration, crime, immigration. is And, you know, I'm sure that there will be some people who support that, their positions on those things.

20:50.72

Sam Shirazi

Question is become it becomes, is is this the year where they're going to be able to get enough moderate voters to come out and to get the rural turnout that they're able to win like they did 2021, which it was a close election, even with all the things going right for them in 2021?

21:08.83

Sam Shirazi

I wish we can get a good high quality poll of the Virginia governor's race. I think it's been a while since we've gotten a poll and i just it would be nice to get a little bit of a pulse check.

21:18.74

Sam Shirazi

to see where things are. i think the last polling had showed former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger up by a little bit. We can kind of see if shes that lead has grown. Is it roughly where it was?

21:31.80

Sam Shirazi

And I think that would be helpful. Obviously, we just have to wait for the next poll to come out. But i do I do think it's a valid question to just think about you know what is the coalition that Republicans are going to put together to get to roughly 50% to win this race?

21:48.18

Sam Shirazi

And you know I guess the one reason I should try to tampen down some expectations for Democrats, I think I remember in 2021 around this time, around this time So I remember 2021 around this time when there were some suggestions, well, maybe Republicans are going to have a shot in Virginia in 2021.

22:07.03

Sam Shirazi

And a lot of people kind of batted that down. No, Virginia is a blue state. Biden just won Virginia by 10 points. And obviously by November, the Republicans were able to turn things around and then they won that race in 2021.

22:21.14

Sam Shirazi

So I don't want to pretend like that's impossible. But again, what's the difference between 2021 and 2025?

22:28.53

Sam Shirazi

2021, we had a Democratic president. 2025, obviously, we're Republican president. And so i I think we'll just have to see if that historical pattern of the party that's not in the White House just gets a big boost in the Virginia governor's race, and that's just too hard to overcome.

22:42.20

Sam Shirazi

I don't want to belabor the point. I think we'll just have to to wait and see. But it's going to be an interesting year this year in Virginia. i will try to talk about the general election every once in a while, but I did want to just draw people's attention to the primary. It will be on June 17th.

23:00.33

Sam Shirazi

Early voting starts soon, about a month away. Early May will be the start of early voting in Virginia. So really not that far away.

23:09.55

Sam Shirazi

I think the primary this year in Virginia is going to be really important and it's not going to get the same amount of attention as the general election and the governor's race, but I do think it's really important. So follow along. Next few episodes, we'll be talking about different aspects of the primary. And so I appreciate everyone listening.

23:25.97

Sam Shirazi

I will join you next week on Federal Fallout.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com