Establish the Edge Fantasy Football

Madison Parkhill (@MadisonParkhill) of RotoViz joins Mike Leone to review the best ball regular season and preview the upcoming playoffs, plus analyzing the good, bad, and ugly of their own teams:

-Extreme strategies rule the day
-Leonard Fournette bias is killing us
-Mike cries over his rookie QB exposure
-How can we get unique "Super Teams" without sacrificing advance rate
-Is ZeroRB set up to smash the Underdog playoffs?

Chris Allen, contributor of 4for4, FootballGuys, and NBC Sports Edge, joins Mike Leone to discuss the impact of weather on fantasy football: At what point should we be worried when it comes to wind and precipitation? How do real NFL teams alter their game plans based on the weather?

Additionally the two talk about:
-Our Bengals
-Mike's Thunderdome victory
-Chris' Home Brewing
-Road Race Training

Rich Hribar (@LordReebs on Twitter) of sharpfootballanalysis.com joins Mike Leone to talk about establish his edge in fantasy football:

-Rich's weekly "The Worksheet" column
-Finding micro edges as the fantasy industry becomes sharper as a whole
-The Konami Code QBs: Why running QBs break fantasy and how that may be changing in today's fantasy football landscape
-The importance of understanding player archetypes in all facets of fantasy - redraft, best ball, Dynasty, DFS, etc.

Joe Holka joins Mike Leone to talk FanDuel tournament strategy as well as how Joe broke into the fantasy sports industry. Among other things, the pair discuss:

-Pricing/Scoring Difference between FanDuel and DraftKings
-How do you go about stacking on FanDuel?
-Do you have to pay up at QB on FanDuel?
-How Joe broke into the industry
-The importance of consistency, quality, and intrinsic value
-Playing long-term games with good people

Make sure to check out Joe's content on his YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/joeholka

Mike Leone answers ETE listener questions on a variety of topics - from DFS to best ball to landscaping:

-When should we be stacking in DFS and how much?
-How do we adjust for the field getting smarter with leverage plays in tournaments?
-What's the opportunity cost of drafting a QB early in best ball?
-Why is it worth paying someone to mow your lawn?

Michael Leone is joined by Pat Kerrane of NBC Sports Edge and Anthony Amico of Establish the Run to mock draft a SuperFlex/TE premium rookie back, adjusting for what we now know five weeks into the NFL season. Among other topics, the trio discusses:

-Trevor Lawrence or Trey Lance as the top QB?
-Which skill player is best - Ja'Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts, or Najee Harris?
-Is it time to give up on Zach Wilson?
-How high does Kadarius Toney rise?
-What to make of the SF RB situation

For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/

Mike Leone goes solo this week, waxing philosophically over how we can apply Daniel Kahneman's new book, Noise, to NFL DFS. Mike outlines:

-why simple models beat human beings at prediction
-the danger of the "illusion of validity"
-how human judgement improves the information we feed the Establish the Run projections
-why we should trust those projections and not be variable or too active in tweaking our judgements on particular cases
-in other words: try to treat decisions based on player ceiling, projected value and field exposure, and correlation - no on how a player makes us feel
-getting outsized rewards for our patience in tournaments
-targeting slow starters with high ceilings like George Kittle and AJ Brown
-knowing when not to be patient and to adjust our priors quickly

For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/
 

Mike Leone and Mark Dankenbring of Establish The Run discuss changes to the ETR staff top 150 rest of season. Conversation includes:

-Why Tyreek Hill is the WR1
-Should we be worried about Kamara, Zeke, and other early RBs
-Cooper Kupp's early season breakout
-Disappointing play calling in Cincinnati
-Being patient with Atlanta players
-How to handle young players going in different directions: Rondale Moore and Brandon Aiyuk

And so much more.

For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/

Mike Leone and Ben Gretch dive into some of the more interesting Week 1 observations as far as team play calling and success and individual usage.

-Will ATL and TEN bounce back?
-Wheel's Up for Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb
-Is CIN low pass rate worrisome despite their success?
-Lot of optimism around the Chargers
-David Njoku, CLE TE1?
-Encouraging W1 usage for a handful of backs: Darrell Henderson, Najee Harris, Jonathan Taylor, and D'Andre Swift

You can check out Ben's work at bengretch.substack.com.

For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/

Mike Leone is joined by Peter Overzet to talk about the concepts you should be applying when playing DFS small field tournaments:

-Common mistakes to avoid
-Thinking macro not micro
-Winning the low scoring slates
-Balancing ceiling and leverage
-Knowing your competitors
-Utilizing late swap

For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/