Eurizon SLJ Capital

In this episode of 'The Long & Short,' Neil Staines from Eurizon SLJ Capital reviews key macroeconomic developments from the past week for professional investors. 

• Introduction (ECB Policy and Market Reactions): The ECB’s recent 25 basis point rate cut and modest forecast adjustments underscore its cautious approach amid risks from potential U.S. tariffs. Markets may have overestimated the likelihood of a more aggressive policy shift.
• Bank of Japan (BoJ): The BoJ maintained its rates at 0.25%, signalling continued caution in normalising policy despite rising inflation risks. Wage-price dynamics will be crucial ahead of the January meeting.
• Bank of England (BoE): The BoE held rates at 4.75%, with a surprising dissent for rate cuts, despite slower progress on disinflation (notably in wages). We maintain our weaker growth forecast relative to consensus. Fiscal-monetary dynamics will shape 2025 policy expectations.
• Federal Reserve (FOMC): The Fed’s 25 basis point rate cut was set against a more “hawkish” narrative, slowing the pace of 2025 cuts. Fiscal expansion underpins growth and inflation dynamics, with uncertainties linked to the Trump administration’s fiscal policies going forward.
• Inflation Outlook: Despite lingering shocks in housing and insurance, the Fed is optimistic about returning to target inflation, though higher 2024 inflation and Trump-era fiscal impacts add uncertainty.
• Macroeconomic Evolution: The U.S. fiscal backdrop, characterised by large deficits, has driven economic outperformance and inflation. Expectations hinge on whether a Trump administration would pivot toward fiscal conservatism.
• The Long & Short of it: The macroeconomic trajectory will depend on fiscal policies, setting the stage for further monetary policy adjustments in 2025.

00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:25 Last week
01:56 Land of the Rising Wages
03:17 Land of Hope and … more hope
05:01 Land of the free, and the home of the … unchecked fiscal expansion?
07:54 A Story is not just for Christmas
10:06 The Long & Short of it

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

This episode of 'The Long and Short,' an audio blog by Eurizon SLJ Capital, covers the macroeconomic themes from the past week, particularly focusing on recent data and central bank actions. The discussion, based on Neil Staines' LinkedIn newsletter, explores the anticipated rate cuts by the FOMC and ECB, driven by evolving economic indicators and policy directions. It delves into the significance of the November employment report, CPI figures, and ECB's recent rate adjustments. Additionally, it highlights the potential impacts of upcoming Trump administration policies on corporations and consumers and addresses the uncertainties and risk premiums that could shape the economic landscape in 2025.

00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:25 Macroeconomic Landscape and Fed Policy
02:22 Dovish Components
03:21 Growth Risks and Risk Premium
04:59 Inflated expectations?
06:19 The Long & Short of it
07:07 Disclaimer and Legal Information

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead' from Eurizon SLJ Capital, Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the week's macroeconomic themes, focusing on recent central bank actions and their implications for developed and emerging markets. Key discussions include rate changes and outlooks from the ECB, RBA, Bank of Canada, and Swiss National Bank, alongside market expectations for the Fed and Bank of Japan. The episode also touches on UK's economic data and its impact on the Bank of England's policy moves. Additional topics include the potential market volatility and the future of interest rates.

00:00 Market Volatility and Rate Cuts Overview
00:17 Introduction to the Podcast
00:42 Developed Market Monetary Policy Activity
04:16 UK Economic Outlook
05:59 US and Japan Economic Focus
08:52 Conclusion and Upcoming Events
10:26 Final Remarks and Disclaimers

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

In this episode of 'The Long and Short,' Eurizon SLJ Capital delves into significant macroeconomic events and themes from the past week, based on a LinkedIn newsletter by Neil Staines: 

• The nomination of Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary signals a potential shift towards fiscal conservatism, challenging expectations of expansive fiscal policy under Trump, with implications for inflation and the US yield curve.
• Fed minutes from November highlighted signs of a weakening consumer and potential risks in commercial real estate, with uncertainties around the neutral rate but reduced risks of a sharp labour market downturn.
• Mixed commentary from Fed officials points towards a likely 25bp rate cut in December unless significant data surprises emerge, with cautious signals about the pace of rate cuts in 2025.
• Economic data suggests weakening trends, including contractionary ISM indices and subdued Beige Book findings, indicating a slowing but modestly growing economy.
• While corporate sectors may benefit from potential Trump policies, a bifurcation between corporate and consumer economic conditions could lead to heightened volatility in 2025.
• Amid ongoing uncertainty and volatility, the Federal Reserve's December reaction function remains pivotal in shaping global macroeconomic narratives heading into 2025.

00:00 Introduction to the Long and Short
00:25 Scott Bessent's Nomination and Fiscal Policy
01:56 Minute detail
03:04 Talking the Talk
04:26 Walking the Walk
05:35 A Furc in the road?
06:23 The long and short of it…
07:10 Disclaimer and Legal Information

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

In this week's episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead' by Eurizon SLJ Capital, Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss essential macroeconomic themes for professional investors. The discussion includes anticipation around Japan's Bank of Japan meeting, insights into China's economic stimulus impact, analysis of the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate expectations, and political and economic events in Europe. The episode also highlights the upcoming focus on the U.S. CPI data and Federal Reserve reaction in December, as well as market expectations in Canada. 

00:00 Introduction and Overview
01:02 Focus on Asia: Japan and China
03:36 European Market Insights
07:00 North American Market Outlook
09:35 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead', Matt Jones from Eurizon SLJ Capital discusses major macroeconomic themes and market events to watch with Neil Staines. The discussion covers the impact of geopolitical uncertainties, upcoming PMI data from various regions, labour cash earnings in Japan, and critical U.S. economic data that could influence Fed decisions. Additionally, the episode touches on central bank actions in New Zealand and Australia, projecting their future monetary policies. 

00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:39 Global Macro Dynamics
01:16 Key Economic Indicators to Watch
02:24 Focus on Australia and New Zealand
03:58 U.S. Economic Outlook
06:11 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Introducing the ‘Long and Short’, an audio version of the LinkedIn newsletter by Neil Staines of Eurizon SLJ Capital, which discusses macroeconomic themes from the past week and has been produced for Professional Investors. Key topics include the Bank of England's recent rate cut and its updated inflation projections influenced by the UK Budget. The discussion moves to the impact of the US election on global markets, focusing on President Trump's fiscal policies and the implications for inflation and the US yield curve. Additionally, the episode examines the Fed Minutes, highlighting concerns in commercial real estate and selective business hiring. The core macroeconomic view suggests continued disinflation and growth moderation in the US, predicting a soft landing with higher equities, bonds, and a weaker dollar.

00:00 Introduction to the Long and Short

00:25 Bank of England Policy Update

01:08 UK Economic Outlook

01:46 Pricing President Trump

03:06 Three. That’s the magic number!

03:59 Just a Minute

05:16 The Long & Short of it…

06:02 Disclaimer and Legal Information

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead' by Eurizon SLJ Capital, Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the sell-side narrative surrounding Trump's impact on the markets, central bank activities in various countries, and key macroeconomic data to watch in the upcoming week. The discussion also touches on the potential implications of US fiscal and monetary policy interactions on the dollar and broader market trends. 

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:25 Welcome and Introductions
00:50 Central Bank Activities and Policies
03:07 Upcoming Macro Data and Market Focus
04:33 US Election Impact on Markets
08:01 Conclusion and Closing Remarks

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead' by Eurizon SLJ Capital, hosts Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss anticipated macroeconomic trends and key events for the coming week targeted at professional investors. They delve into significant data points such as Eurozone GDP, US ISM services for October and employment reports from New Zealand and Canada. Key central bank meetings, including the RBA, Norges, Riksbank, Bank of England, and FOMC, are also highlighted with expected policy impacts. The episode concludes with a discussion on the US elections.

00:00 Introduction and Welcome
00:30 Key Global Data Points
02:21 Central Banks' Upcoming Decisions
05:43 US Election and Market Impact
08:19 Conclusion and Closing Remarks

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead' by Eurizon SLJ Capital, Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the significant macroeconomic events expected next week. They delve into the UK's budget and its potential impact on the macroeconomic environment, predictions for the Japanese election, China PMI data, and European central bank rate cuts. The episode also covers key indicators for the US, including top-tier earnings reports, employment data, and GDP. 

00:00 Introduction and Welcome

00:30 UK Budget and Economic Outlook

02:53 Global Economic Highlights

05:14 US Market and Election Insights

08:12 Conclusion and Closing Remarks

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.