Eurizon SLJ Capital

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead' by Eurizon SLJ Capital, Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the key macroeconomic themes and data to watch in the upcoming week. As the US has a quiet week with President's Day and the end of the earnings season, the focus shifts internationally. Key data includes Japanese Q4 GDP, rate decisions from the RBA and RBNZ, and Japanese CPI. Global flash PMIs and the German election will also be closely monitored. The discussion touches on the implications of US policy on tariffs and the Russia-Ukraine situation, noting a shift towards a more negotiated and less confrontational path on tariffs. The UK economic outlook is also explored with significant upcoming data releases and their impact on the Bank of England's monetary policy. 

00:00 Introduction to Global Macro Factors
00:30 Welcome and Introductions
00:55 Upcoming Week's Global Economic Data
03:27 Focus on Tariffs and Geopolitical Themes
06:22 UK Economic Data and Bank of England Outlook
08:49 Conclusion and Closing Remarks

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' Matt Jones and Neil Staines from Eurizon SLJ Capital discuss global macroeconomic themes set to shape the upcoming week. They explore the Trump administration's fiscal policies, the impact of tariffs and trade relations with China, and the anticipated data releases, including CPI, PPI, and retail sales. The episode also delves into the UK's monetary policy following a recent rate cut by the Bank of England and its implications for inflation and economic growth. Additionally, the show touches on upcoming releases of Chinese economic data and the expected fiscal and monetary interactions in the US. 

00:00 Introduction to Fiscal Policies and Market Views
00:27 Welcome and Introduction of Hosts
00:52 China's Economic Outlook and Global Impact
02:42 US Fiscal and Monetary Policy Analysis
05:07 UK Monetary Policy and Economic Projections
07:12 Weekend Sports Highlights and Closing Remarks

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

In this edition of The Long & Short, Neil Staines examines how swift US policy shifts contrast with Europe’s slower regulatory pace, shaping economic competitiveness and market sentiment.

• The US is enacting policy changes rapidly, while Europe remains stuck in slow-moving regulatory debates, which are impacting economic competitiveness and market sentiment.
• While the new US administration has drawn attention, the Federal Reserve's latest meeting underscored a slowing pace of rate cuts, reinforcing a more cautious monetary policy stance.
• Despite minor hawkish changes in the FOMC statement, Chair Powell emphasized a balanced stance, highlighting that policy rates remain restrictive and maintaining the implicit dovish bias.
• The Fed's policy trajectory depends on four key variables tied to the new administration—tariffs, immigration, deregulation, and fiscal consolidation—all of which influence hashtag#inflation, the labour market, and the yield curve.
• The ECB cut rates as expected but hinted at a more optimistic growth outlook. Real wages are rising, credit affordability is improving, and the global trade recovery is supporting European exports.
• While many factors shape the global hashtag#macro landscape, the most significant driver remains the economic and fiscal policies of the new US administration, with the Fed - and possibly global markets - pausing until more clarity emerges.

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' Matt Jones from Eurizon SLJ Capital is joined by Neil Staines to discuss key macroeconomic themes of the upcoming week. The episode focuses on the Federal Reserve and ECB policies, recent PMI data, and anticipated economic indicators such as the US ISM Manufacturing, JOLTS, ADP, and non-farm payrolls. It also examines the ECB's recent rate cut and its implications for inflation and growth in the Eurozone. The UK's economic outlook and potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England are also discussed, along with a roundup of significant earnings reports from major corporations. 

00:00 Introduction and Market Focus
00:21 Welcome and Introductions
00:53 US Economic Data and Fed Policy
03:33 European Central Bank and Eurozone Outlook
05:37 UK Economy and Bank of England
07:59 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

In this episode of 'The Long and Short', an audio blog by Eurizon SLJ Capital, Neil Staines discusses the macroeconomic themes from the past week. Key topics include anticipated interest rate cuts in the UK, the impact of fiscal policies on employment and inflation, the US Presidential Inauguration amidst the World Economic Forum in Davos, the usage of tariffs as a negotiation tool by President Trump, and a freeze on Federal civilian hiring. The episode also outlines expectations for US inflation trajectories and anticipates the focus of upcoming ECB meetings and potential German fiscal easing. This newsletter targets professional investors and provides in-depth insights into the current economic landscape.

00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:24 UK Economic Outlook
00:32 US Presidential Inauguration
03:10 US Tariff Policies
04:47 Federal Hiring Freeze
05:46 US Inflation Trends
07:19 Looking Ahead: Europe and the US
08:15 Disclaimer and Legal Information

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

This episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead' by Eurizon SLJ Capital features Matt Jones and Neil Staines discussing the key macroeconomic themes and market focuses for the upcoming week. They analyze the impact of recent political events including President Trump's executive actions and the World Economic Forum in Davos, and delve into the implications of upcoming data releases and central bank actions in the US, Europe, Australia, China, and emerging markets. Key topics include the ECB's potential rate cut, US inflation trajectory, and global trade negotiations. 

00:00 Introduction and Market Focus
00:47 Political Focus: US Presidential Inauguration and Global Events
02:38 Global Economic Outlook: China, Australia, and Emerging Markets
03:32 European Central Bank and Economic Indicators
05:15 US Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook
07:34 Weekend Preview: Sports and Leisure
08:21 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

In this episode of "The Long & Short," Neil Staines examines how global markets are bracing for shifts in monetary policy, fiscal dynamics, and the evolving trade landscape:

• Markets are increasingly pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of Japan in January 2025, reflecting a shift in Japan's monetary policy towards normalisation despite global divergences.
• UK fiscal pressures and a weaker-than-expected economy could prompt the Bank of England to cut rates faster than markets currently anticipate, especially under a benign inflation scenario.
• The U.S. Presidential Inauguration and the World Economic Forum in Davos will dominate global market sentiment, with significant attention on U.S. policy direction.
• Front-loading in global trade due to expected Trump tariffs adds complexity to growth and inflation expectations, creating the potential for market volatility if policies disappoint.
• Scott Bessent’s confirmation hearing highlighted a fiscally conservative bias with an emphasis on deficit reduction and tariffs as a multi-purpose tool for economic strategy.
• The uncertainty around trade policies may have a greater negative impact on global markets than tariffs themselves, emphasizing the high anticipation of Trump 2.0’s economic direction.

00:00 Introduction to The Long and Short
00:50 Monetary Policy in Japan
02:13 Waking the Doves?
03:56 Village People versus Global People
04:39 Buy Now, Pay Later?
05:43 Hearing differently?
07:47 The Long & Short of it…
08:29 Disclaimer and Legal Information

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss key macroeconomic themes influencing financial markets. They highlight the inauguration of the Trump administration as a major event, alongside discussions on US inflation trends, retail sales, and GDP data. The episode also covers weak economic data from the UK, an encouraging economic outlook for China, and predictions for the Bank of Japan's upcoming policy decisions. Additionally, the show provides a snapshot of upcoming global political and economic events.

00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:46 Global Macro Perspective
00:55 US Economic Data Insights
02:05 UK Economic Data Analysis
02:37 China's Economic Performance
02:47 Upcoming Week's Key Events
03:41 Focus on Japan
05:37 Trump Administration's Impact
07:56 Conclusion and Closing Remarks

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Welcome to the Long & Short, an audio blog production by Eurizon SLJ Capital that takes a look at the macroeconomic themes of the past week and has been recorded for professional investors. This is an audio version of a LinkedIn newsletter written by Neil Staines, published on the 10th of January 2025.

In the first edition of 2025 of "The Long & Short," Neil Staines explores the impact of bond vigilantes on global markets and monetary policy: 

• The Bank of Japan is gradually moving toward policy normalisation. The debate centres on whether the next 25bp rate hike will occur in January or March.
• UK fiscal policy, perceived as a consumer-level tightening, has exacerbated market concerns, driving up yields and highlighting potential dovish shifts in monetary policy.
• We continue to see gradual disinflation and growth moderation, though unsustainable U.S. debt and fiscal policies could heighten market risks.
• Market assumptions about the inflationary and contractionary effects of Trump’s fiscal and immigration policies may be overly simplistic, risking mispriced expectations.
• The continuation of disinflation and growth moderation aligns with Fed projections, though higher U.S. yields pose challenges for the dynamics of government and corporate debt.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction to the Long and Short
00:25 Japanese Interest Rate Expectations
01:55 In Reeves we Trusst?
04:13 Top Trumps? 
05:46 Cuts both ways?
07:28 The Long & Short of it…
08:46 Disclaimer and Legal Information

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' produced by Eurizon SLJ Capital, Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the current macroeconomic themes dominated by expectations of policy evolution under Trump 2.0. The episode explores the complex UK macro backdrop, including Gilt market volatility, CPI, GDP, and retail sales forecasts. It also delves into European and Chinese economic dynamics, the impact of higher energy prices, and the trajectory of fiscal stimulus measures. The discussion includes the US economic outlook, focusing on the CPI and retail sales for December, the final week of the Biden administration, and the start of the Q4 earnings season. 

00:00 Introduction and Overview

00:48 UK Market Analysis

02:49 Global Economic Outlook

06:06 US Market Focus

08:17 Conclusion and Disclaimers

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.