ong-term government bond yields in the US and Germany have dropped significantly, raising questions on the solidity of the economic recovery.
There are at least four factors holding back the recovery: the reacceleration of Covid infections, the loss of purchasing power caused by inflation, the tightening of lending conditions in China and a the prospect of a less accommodative Fed.
This is a combination that implies a certain degree of uncertainty in the immediate term, but which should be positively resolved.
Audio recorded on 29.07.2021

The stock markets performed well in the week, after hinting at a correction that was ultimately avoided. Focus is mostly on the Delta variant of the virus and on the UK’s experiment in going ahead in any case with the full removal of restrictions. The fact that, for the time being, the rise in infection numbers is not translating into more hospital admissions is reassuring. This week the Fed meeting will be in the spotlight, to reap any indications on the timing and technicalities of the tapering
Audio recorded on 26.07.2021

Audio recorded on 19.07.2021

During the week, the decline of both short- and long-term interest rates rapidly shifted market focus back onto the solidity and timeline of a full-fledged economic recovery. All the more so in light of news that the new Delta variant is spreading at a fast pace in the emerging countries, and is also starting to raise concerns in countries that are at an advanced stage of their vaccination campaigns, such as the United Kingdom.
Audio recorded on 12.07.2021

Discover the economic news marked out the financial markets in the month of June.
Biden’s European tour, Europe among variants and recovery fund, Italy believes in the recovery.
Audio recorded on July 2nd 2021.

The main object of interest driving the market is the dynamic between post-pandemic cyclic recovery, bottlenecks generating temporary inflation peaks and the Federal Reserve’s plan, which lately changed its message by initiating the removal of monetary stimulus across the next months. Despite all this, the central bank’s conduct reflects the market’s expectations, thus helping to maintain a low volatility.
Audio recorded on 30.06.2021

The markets are stabilising again and have resumed pricing in a normalisation of the macroeconomic picture going forward, after the previous week’s setback in the wake of the Fed meeting, that had set the stage for a future interest rate hike.
Andrea Conti, in charge of Eurizon’s Macro Research team, offers his Macroeconomic analysis and explains the reasons behind the markets’ reaction in our weekly rendezvous.
Audio recorded on 28.06.2021

Last week’s main event was the FOMC meeting, that envisaged two rate hikes in 2023, in light of the improvement of the macro scenario and of the labour market, and of the progress made on the health front. However, the statements made by the US central bank have not persuaded the markets, as the 2-year rate segment of the curve has started to rise back after staying effectively unchanged for months.
Audio recorded on 21.06.2021

The markets performed positively, reacting composedly to rising US inflation. By no chance, the Fed considers current inflation levels as transitory, and singles out the labour market as the true indicator of the state of the recovery. In Europe, the ECB confirmed its accommodative stance in support of a lagging growth trend.
Audio recorded on 14.06.2021

The markets remained marginally bullish but very cautious. The main theme investors are currently focusing on is when the recovery will be deemed sufficiently sure-footed to allow Central Banks to start gradually removing the stimulus introduced during the pandemic emergency.
Audio recorded on 07.06.2021