US and Europe on the path for economic reopening. Draghi: We need vaccinations and respect for the rules
Audio registered on June 7th 2021.

The medium-term scenario appears to be positive, but the volatility of economic data and inflation gives reason to stay alert. The directional low exposition approach from last month is reconfirmed, with neutral positioning on the main activities and pro-cyclic exposition from the Eurozone (underweight on Bund, overweight regarding stock markets) where we think positive surprises might take place.
Audio recorded on 27.05.2021

Caution prevailing on the markets, in waiting to verify the Fed’s next moves in light of excellent business confidence data at the global level, and of US inflation, that if confirmed in the medium term, would mean much stronger than expected growth, potentially prompting the removal of monetary stimulus. However, the Fed is also monitoring the US labour market USA, still distant from 2019 levels.
Audio recorded on 24.05.2021

April inflation in the US beat expectations, bringing volatility back to the markets and restarting the uptrend of 10-year government bond rates. This is a dynamic investors are notoriously monitoring with particular attention in the present phase of the economic cycle, and that carries a number of question marks. However, the Fed has offered reassurances and, for the time being, the markets seem to be accepting them.
Audio recorded on 17.05.2021

Investor approach to the stock markets returns positive and pro-cyclical, once again thanks to the interest rate market, that was confirmed stable. All the major global stock markets scored gains, Europe and Japan the week’s top performers. US labour market data push back any discussion on the removal of monetary and fiscal stimulus.
Audio recorded on 10.05.2021

In this monthly view from April the increase in vaccinations is evident: now Europe too is ready to go, while Biden declares himself ready to sustain the US’ economic recovery.
Audio recorded on 4.05.2021

The context we are referring to continues to look optimal, but priced for the majority. The US are quickly recovering, increased vaccinations in the Eurozone should be favouring it from a macroeconomic perspective, and China is at its re-acceleration peak.
The profile of our investment choices become less pro-cycle, by profiting off the US' duration underweight and the equity market's overweight.
We're reinforcing the duration underweight for German titles and increase our relative preference for European stocks.
Audio recorded on 29.04.2021

The financial markets took a breather last week, with government bond rates effectively unchanged at the previous week’s levels, as also global stock indices. Investors are now awaiting confirmative evidence both from vaccines and macro data. In this sense, PMI indices were favourable, in the United States especially.
Audio recorded on 26.04.2021

Another positive week of the financial markets, and for the stock markets in particular, that consolidated the gains scored over previous weeks, thanks to the stabilisation of government rates and fiscal stimulus, as well to the progress being made by the vaccination campaign.
US inflation rising but still under control.
Audio recorded on 19.04.2021

The stabilisation of US government bond rates continues. Ten-year rates consolidated below the 1.70% mark, and combined with the advancement of the vaccination campaigns, and with fiscal and monetary support, are driving the stock markets and the recovery. Central banks confirm they will stick to their accommodative policies.
Audio recorded on 12.04.2021