Eurizon's podcast

During the week, the decline of both short- and long-term interest rates rapidly shifted market focus back onto the solidity and timeline of a full-fledged economic recovery. All the more so in light of news that the new Delta variant is spreading at a fast pace in the emerging countries, and is also starting to raise concerns in countries that are at an advanced stage of their vaccination campaigns, such as the United Kingdom.
Audio recorded on 12.07.2021

Discover the economic news marked out the financial markets in the month of June.
Biden’s European tour, Europe among variants and recovery fund, Italy believes in the recovery.
Audio recorded on July 2nd 2021.

The main object of interest driving the market is the dynamic between post-pandemic cyclic recovery, bottlenecks generating temporary inflation peaks and the Federal Reserve’s plan, which lately changed its message by initiating the removal of monetary stimulus across the next months. Despite all this, the central bank’s conduct reflects the market’s expectations, thus helping to maintain a low volatility.
Audio recorded on 30.06.2021

The markets are stabilising again and have resumed pricing in a normalisation of the macroeconomic picture going forward, after the previous week’s setback in the wake of the Fed meeting, that had set the stage for a future interest rate hike.
Andrea Conti, in charge of Eurizon’s Macro Research team, offers his Macroeconomic analysis and explains the reasons behind the markets’ reaction in our weekly rendezvous.
Audio recorded on 28.06.2021

Last week’s main event was the FOMC meeting, that envisaged two rate hikes in 2023, in light of the improvement of the macro scenario and of the labour market, and of the progress made on the health front. However, the statements made by the US central bank have not persuaded the markets, as the 2-year rate segment of the curve has started to rise back after staying effectively unchanged for months.
Audio recorded on 21.06.2021

The markets performed positively, reacting composedly to rising US inflation. By no chance, the Fed considers current inflation levels as transitory, and singles out the labour market as the true indicator of the state of the recovery. In Europe, the ECB confirmed its accommodative stance in support of a lagging growth trend.
Audio recorded on 14.06.2021

The markets remained marginally bullish but very cautious. The main theme investors are currently focusing on is when the recovery will be deemed sufficiently sure-footed to allow Central Banks to start gradually removing the stimulus introduced during the pandemic emergency.
Audio recorded on 07.06.2021

US and Europe on the path for economic reopening. Draghi: We need vaccinations and respect for the rules
Audio registered on June 7th 2021.

The medium-term scenario appears to be positive, but the volatility of economic data and inflation gives reason to stay alert. The directional low exposition approach from last month is reconfirmed, with neutral positioning on the main activities and pro-cyclic exposition from the Eurozone (underweight on Bund, overweight regarding stock markets) where we think positive surprises might take place.
Audio recorded on 27.05.2021

Caution prevailing on the markets, in waiting to verify the Fed’s next moves in light of excellent business confidence data at the global level, and of US inflation, that if confirmed in the medium term, would mean much stronger than expected growth, potentially prompting the removal of monetary stimulus. However, the Fed is also monitoring the US labour market USA, still distant from 2019 levels.
Audio recorded on 24.05.2021