The uncertainty clouding the markets a few weeks ago seems to have eased, while not disappearing entirely. The markets are experiencing a consolidation phase in waiting to assess the debate on the tax reform in the US and how the anti-Covid vaccine will be distributed. The virus is still a decisive factor, but is raising fewer fears, at least on the financial markets.
Audio recorded on 23.11.2020

Last week interest rates rose marginally, in a context from which the markets drew positive signals from the outcome of the US elections and the announcement of Pfizer-BioNtech’s anti-Covid 19 vaccine. New macro data due for release in the week.
Audio recorded on 16.11. 2020

Discover the major economic news marked out the financial markets in the month of October.
Watch the video available from November 13th 2020.

Biden President, split Congress. The markets are satisfied with the outcome of the US election, because of the new president’s profile and because they see in the two souls of Congress a path to obtain a more effective post-Covid fiscal package. The Covid pandemic will remain the main theme between now and the end of 2020. Analysis and positioning, by Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research Team.
Audio recorded on 09.11.2020

November 2020: economic cycle, view and portfolios update.
Audio recorded on 28.10.2020

The uncertain phase continues on the market. For the time being, uncertainty seems mostly concentrated in Europe, due to the sharp increase in new infections, whereas the US market seems to be pricing in a more positive scenario, in waiting for fresh post-election stimulus. In the background, macro data in the US are being confirmed solid, and in Europe the first effects of the new wave of the epidemic are showing in the worsening of services sector confidence indices.
Audio recorded on 26 Oct. 2020

The transition phase continues. The markets are still being guided by virus containment, the US presidential elections, and macro data, although the second wave of the Coronavirus is less scary, as containment measures as strict as those imposed in March do not seem to be on the horizon. For what concerns the presidential election in the US, voting intention polls are awarding Biden victory, but investors would also be content if Trump were confirmed… Important macro data releases due this week.
Audio recorded on 19 Oct. 2020

The evolution of the contagion curve, macro data, and the US elections, are still the main themes guiding, economy, although the overall cycle does not seem to be in question. More in detail, the markets are less concerned with Covid-19, as the authorities do not seem inclined to take drastic measures. In the voting intention polls, Biden remains ahead of Trump in the race for the US presidency, although Trump could make a comeback.
Audio recorded on 12.10.2020

The transition phase is being extended by the effort to contain the coronavirus pandemic and by the uncertainty tied to the US presidential elections, that remain the key themes in the present phase. Macro data are also in the spotlight, although expectations now harder to beat. Stefano Cucchi, of the Eurizon Macro Research team, shares his views.
Audio recorded on 28 Sep. 2020

The transition phase on the markets continues, albeit without casting major doubts on the scenario, as rates have been stable for several months now. On its part, the Fed has reasserted it will remain ultra-accommodative until inflation stabilises (2023?). Higher uncertainty in the near term, when the evolution of Covid-19 infection cases and the US elections will remain decisive. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research team, shares his views.
Audio recorded on 21 Sep. 2020