Everyday Economics

Higher interest rates are creating a growing challenge for commercial real estate as loans mature and property values fall. On this episode of Everyday Economics, Chris Krug and Dr. Orphe Divounguy break down what happens when an office or apartment building owner has to refinance at today's higher rates.

They discuss:

• Why higher rates can mean higher debt service and lower property values
• What happens when commercial real estate loans mature
• Why businesses are holding onto workers despite slower hiring
• How AI and productivity are changing business decisions
• What falling commercial property values could mean for city tax revenue
• How lenders and borrowers may be affected as loans are refinanced

Everyday Economics is part of The States, The Center Square's daily news magazine.

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Americans are still spending — but they’re changing where and how they spend.

Consumer spending is up 4.5% from a year ago, but households are increasingly trading down to cheaper stores, lower-priced goods and more affordable housing. PhD economist Orphe Divounguy explains why that matters for the economy and for the Federal Reserve.

More than half of new homes sold in August were priced below $400,000, compared with about 46% a year earlier. With mortgage rates rising above 7%, Divounguy expects builders to continue offering incentives, cutting prices and shifting toward smaller, less expensive homes.

The bigger question is whether businesses can continue raising prices. With consumers becoming more price-sensitive and the labor market remaining weak, businesses are struggling to pass higher costs from tariffs and energy onto shoppers.

Chris Krug and Orphe also break down what to watch in Wednesday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report and why core PCE could remain around 3.3% year over year.

Everyday Economics is hosted by Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy and is brought to you by The Center Square Newswire Service.

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Mortgage rates are around 7.2% — and the housing market is increasingly splitting into two very different experiences.

PhD economist Orphe Divounguy explains why higher rates are keeping many buyers on the sidelines while luxury housing continues to perform well. Builders are responding with major incentives, including an estimated $44,000 per home in rate buy-downs and closing-cost assistance to get buyers across the finish line.

At the same time, inventory is rising in parts of the country, giving buyers who can afford to transact more bargaining power. But for many households, higher borrowing costs and a weaker labor market are making homeownership increasingly difficult.

Chris Krug and Orphe also examine what this divide could mean for state tax revenues, particularly as governments rely on income taxes, sales taxes and capital gains.

Everyday Economics is hosted by Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy and is brought to you by The Center Square Newswire Service.

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The Federal Reserve just raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4%. But what does the rate hike actually mean for Americans?

Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy examine the Fed’s decision and the growing divide between savers and borrowers. Higher-income households with homes and investments may benefit from higher rates, while younger households, renters and borrowers face higher costs for credit cards, auto loans and mortgages.

Divounguy describes it as a “two-speed economy,” with interest-rate-sensitive parts of the economy struggling to keep up while the highest-income households continue to do relatively well.

The rate hike could also affect state and local governments. Higher borrowing costs can make infrastructure and public projects more expensive, potentially putting additional pressure on government budgets and taxpayers.

The discussion also looks ahead to new home sales, builder incentives, inflation expectations and whether rising energy prices are spreading into the broader economy.

Everyday Economics is hosted by Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy and is brought to you by The Center Square Newswire Service.

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The Federal Reserve faces a major decision this week: raise interest rates or hold them steady as energy prices push inflation higher.

Markets are pricing in a strong chance of a quarter-point rate hike, but PhD economist Orphe Divounguy argues the Fed should hold. His concern: the current inflation increase is being driven largely by a supply shock in energy, while the underlying economy is showing signs of weakness.

Core inflation is around 2.4%, wage growth is easing, hiring remains near a decade low and recent economic growth has been heavily concentrated in AI investment. Divounguy argues that raising interest rates can cool demand — but it cannot produce more oil or directly fix an energy supply shock.

Chris Krug and Orphe Divounguy also examine the growing divide inside the Federal Reserve, inflation expectations, the labor market and whether Chairman Kevin Warsh's hawkish comments at Jackson Hole have created a credibility problem heading into Wednesday's decision.

The key question: Is another rate hike necessary to fight inflation, or could it risk over-tightening an already fragile economy?

Everyday Economics is hosted by Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy and is brought to you by The Center Square.

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President Trump made promises to lower prices on everything from gas and groceries to electricity, mortgages, prescription drugs and childcare. But how much control does a president actually have over the prices Americans pay?

Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy break down eight major price categories and examine what drives them — from energy costs and supply shocks to interest rates and federal policy.

Gas, beef, groceries, electricity and childcare have all become more expensive, while 30-year mortgage rates and prescription drug prices have moved in the opposite direction. The discussion also looks at the role of tariffs, the Middle East conflict, Federal Reserve policy and Medicare drug-price negotiations.

So which prices can a president meaningfully influence, and which are largely determined by forces outside the White House?

Everyday Economics is hosted by Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy and is brought to you by The Center Square Newswire Service.

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America is pouring money into artificial intelligence — but the productivity gains have yet to fully show up in the economy.

Employers added 162,000 jobs in August and unemployment held at 4.1%, but PhD economist Orphe Divounguy says the latest labor market data look more like a stabilization than a true rebound. Hiring remains weak, real wages are falling, long-term unemployment is rising, and the labor force is nearly a million workers smaller.

At the same time, businesses are making massive investments in AI infrastructure. Equipment and intellectual property investment accounted for a significant share of recent economic growth, while construction spending has shifted heavily toward data centers.

So where is the payoff?

Chris Krug and Orphe Divounguy examine whether AI is actually increasing productivity, why businesses are still figuring out how to use the technology, and what could happen to workers as AI changes the skills employers need. They also compare today's transition to previous technological shifts, including the adoption of electricity.

Everyday Economics is hosted by Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy and is brought to you by The Center Square.

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The U.S. economy is making a massive bet on artificial intelligence, pouring capital into data centers, chips and power infrastructure — much of it financed with debt. But the productivity payoff investors are expecting has yet to show up in the broader economic data.

Economist Orphe Divounguy explains why AI productivity growth is becoming less of an upside surprise and more of a requirement for the economy to justify the enormous investment. With roughly $40 trillion in government debt and real interest rates remaining elevated, the stakes of the AI boom are much bigger than the technology sector alone.

In this episode of Everyday Economics, Chris Krug and Dr. O break down who is ultimately carrying the risk of the AI investment boom — and why the economy may need the payoff sooner rather than later.

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Home builders are cutting prices and offering incentives, but buyers are still struggling to get into the housing market. New home sales fell to a 607,000 annual pace in July, while housing inventory jumped to 9.6 months of supply — the highest level since January. Builders are responding with rate buy-downs, closing-cost assistance and price cuts averaging about 6%.

PhD economist Orphe Divounguy explains why the housing market is increasingly split into winners and losers, with luxury homes holding up while the middle of the market — roughly $500,000 to $800,000 — remains stuck. Mortgage rates around 6.7% are making it difficult for buyers to enter the market, while builders in the South and Sun Belt face growing inventories after years of heavy construction. Meanwhile, markets in the Midwest and Northeast continue to face a shortage of housing.

Everyday Economics is hosted by Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy and is brought to you by The Center Square.

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The economy may look strong on the surface, but a closer look at the numbers reveals a much narrower and weaker expansion. In his first Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pointed to a 4.1% unemployment rate, strong business investment and rising corporate profits as signs of a resilient economy. But much of that growth is being driven by the massive AI buildout, while housing, construction and other parts of the economy continue to struggle.

PhD economist Orphe Divounguy explains why the U.S. economy is increasingly operating at two speeds, why roughly 80% of second-quarter GDP growth came from equipment and intellectual property spending tied to the AI boom, and why the labor market may be weaker than the headline unemployment rate suggests. With hiring near its lowest level since the aftermath of the Great Recession and the labor force shrinking, the Fed faces a difficult decision over whether to raise interest rates or wait for more data.

Everyday Economics is hosted by Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy and is brought to you by The Center Square.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.