Monday 4th April 2022Non-farm payrolls gave the hawks at the Fed the ammunition they wanted, and bond yields have responded. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the data on Friday has cemented in the expectation of a 50bp rate hike at their next meeting. The ECB is still reticent to talk about bringing their schedule forward, even though Friday’s Eurozone inflation numbers were a lot higher than expectations. Today we get to hear how the BoE’s Andrew Bailey expects to balance rising inflation against an economy that has already slowed (possibly to zero). And what of the RBA? Will tomorrow bring a signalling of a faster path to a rate hike? Also today, has oil fallen too far? The situation in Ukraine looks like it won’t end soon, yet oil is less than 10% higher than before the invasion.

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