Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

We challenge the obsession with a blockbuster AI IPO and focus on the force underneath it: rapid money supply growth that inflates asset prices and quietly erodes purchasing power. We connect Treasury buybacks, Federal Reserve plumbing, and crowded tech positioning to the real question investors should ask: whether their wealth is actually growing after inflation. 

• the $1.4 trillion AI IPO as a symptom of liquidity 
• why big-name buyers are not treating the valuation as a joke 
• US money supply growth and what it does to asset prices 
• how “green numbers” can hide falling purchasing power 
• Treasury debt buybacks and the Fed as the ultimate backstop 
• suppressed long-term rates making stocks and housing look irresistible 
• concentration risk when everyone owns the same tech names 
• why selling gets brutal when there are no buyers left 
• sector rotation as the difference between trained money and headline investing 
• Bill Gates’ warning on AI negatives and retirement account risk 

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Oil price spikes have preceded every major market downturn of the past 50 years, and the current surge linked to the Iran conflict follows the same pattern. Felix Nikolas Prehn walks through the chain reaction from rising energy costs to inflation, frozen monetary policy and falling consumer sentiment. He highlights that physical oil delivered to Asia is trading above $150 a barrel even as paper futures sit near $115, a divergence that suggests real scarcity beyond what headline prices convey. Gold and silver have sold off alongside equities in what amounts to an everything crash. Drawing on a Bank of America research note written for institutional clients, he outlines the case for a coming policy panic, a weakening dollar and eventual rebounds in consumer discretionary stocks, software and consumer finance. He counsels against chasing oil or defence stocks and stresses risk management over headline watching.

In this episode:
00:00 Bank of America institutional research note on the oil crisis
00:33 Oil spikes and market crashes over the past 50 years
03:00 Physical oil at $150 versus paper price at $115
07:40 The domino chain from oil to inflation to rate policy
10:34 Why gold and silver are failing as safe havens
12:24 Stagflation risk and the Fed being unable to act
14:15 Bank of America on policy panic and beaten down sectors
18:54 Risk management rules and following money flows

Sources mentioned:
Bank of America (institutional research note), https://www.bankofamerica.com
Goldman Sachs (inflation forecast), https://www.goldmansachs.com
Federal Reserve (oil price scenarios), https://www.federalreserve.gov
CME COMEX, https://www.cmegroup.com

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

Oil prices have surged to 126 dollars a barrel after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, but the real threat runs deeper than the petrol pump. Felix Nikolas Prehn, an economist and former investment banker, explains a three-link chain reaction. First, the supply disruption raises energy, food and fertiliser costs because the region produces roughly 30 per cent of global fertiliser. Second, resurgent inflation traps the Federal Reserve, which cannot cut rates without stoking prices further, while 29 trillion dollars of government debt worldwide must be refinanced at far higher interest rates this year. Third, governments respond by borrowing yet more to subsidise energy bills, creating a self-reinforcing loop that pushes rates and debt still higher. Prehn argues that both the bond and equity portions of typical retirement portfolios face pressure, and outlines a framework centred on following institutional capital flows, auditing personal exposure to bonds and variable costs, and building a cash buffer before volatility deepens.

In this episode:
00:00 Oil shock from the Strait of Hormuz blockade
02:00 Inflation spreading beyond fuel to food and electricity
08:00 Fed trapped between rate cuts and rising inflation
11:00 The 29 trillion dollar global debt refinancing wall
14:00 Bond and stock portfolios squeezed from both sides
17:00 Government subsidies creating a self-reinforcing debt loop
21:00 Who benefits: asset owners versus salaried workers
23:00 Three-step survival framework: follow money, audit pressure points, position early

Sources mentioned:
Federal Reserve (stock ownership data and inflation forecasts), https://www.federalreserve.gov
Metal Minute (shipping and metals tracking tool)

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

Gold prices fell roughly 20 per cent from their all-time highs in a matter of weeks, even as conflict erupted in the Middle East. Felix Nikolas Prehn explains how three rapid margin hikes on the COMEX exchange triggered a liquidation cascade that forced smaller traders to sell, while large banks weathered the storm and bought the dip. He examines France's quiet removal of 129 tons of gold from the Federal Reserve and the official explanation he finds unconvincing, alongside German calls to repatriate gold held in New York. The episode also covers a UBS research note from China showing resilient ETF inflows and a new regulatory programme allowing ten major Chinese insurers to allocate up to one per cent of assets to gold. Central banks globally purchased 1,050 tons last year. Felix concludes that the paper price and the physical market are telling very different stories.

In this episode:
00:00 France removed 129 tons of gold from the US Federal Reserve
01:53 Gold fell 20 per cent from highs despite Middle East conflict
02:47 Three COMEX margin hikes in two weeks triggered forced selling
04:13 Turkey sold 60 to 120 tons of gold to defend the lira
08:38 France's official explanation for the gold move questioned
13:54 COMEX paper trading versus physical delivery divergence
17:47 UBS China trip finds strong institutional gold demand
18:55 Chinese insurers authorised to invest up to one per cent in gold

Sources mentioned:
UBS precious metals research note (Joni Teves)
CME Group (COMEX exchange), https://www.cmegroup.com
Banque de France, https://www.banque-france.fr
Deutsche Bundesbank, https://www.bundesbank.de
PICC (People's Insurance Company of China)
China Life Insurance

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

JPMorgan's latest market intelligence note outlines two distinct trading scenarios tied to the Middle East ceasefire and names the sectors and positioning each one favours. Felix Nikolas Prehn walks through the report's key findings, starting with a 7,200 target for the S&P 500 and a bullish case for large-cap technology stocks driven by expected strong earnings and deeply bearish institutional positioning. The note highlights that hedge fund leverage has fallen sharply from its 12-month high, meaning a resumption of risk appetite could channel significant capital back into equities. Historical data cited in the report show that when positioning is this bearish, the S&P 500 has returned 8.2 per cent over the following three months on average. If the ceasefire collapses, JPMorgan expects oil to rise towards 125 dollars, the dollar to strengthen and energy and defence stocks to outperform while most other sectors decline.

In this episode:
00:00 JPMorgan note and its limited distribution to institutional clients
01:42 S&P 500 target of 7,200 and the bullish case for tech stocks
05:23 Hedge fund leverage drop and what re-leveraging would mean for equities
05:55 Retail sentiment data showing heavy selling and potential for a chase
10:36 Historical 8.2 per cent three-month return when positioning is this bearish
12:31 Bullish list: small caps, discretionary, financials, precious metals miners
17:03 Bearish scenario: oil to 125 dollars, energy and defence stocks favoured
20:35 Airlines and other sectors most vulnerable if the ceasefire fails

Sources mentioned:
JPMorgan Market Intelligence Report

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

Gold just recorded its worst month in thirteen years, falling 12 per cent, yet the largest investment banks remain positive on the metal. Felix Nikolas Prehn walks through recent research from UBS and Goldman Sachs, explaining that the sell-off was driven by a liquidity squeeze rather than deteriorating fundamentals. Hedge funds sold gold to cover leveraged losses elsewhere, while central banks continued buying for a fifteenth consecutive month. China launched a programme allowing insurance companies to allocate up to 1 per cent of assets to gold, a move UBS says has not yet been fully deployed. The reports cite stagflation risk, a weakening dollar, likely interest rate cuts and rising government deficits as structural supports for the metal. Prehn outlines a three step framework for evaluating any asset: track institutional positioning, watch for contrarian signals when the crowd panic sells, and assess whether the long term trend remains intact.

In this episode:
00:00 Wall Street research notes on gold introduced
00:48 Central banks dumping US debt and buying gold
03:48 Gold drops 12 per cent in its worst month in 13 years
05:00 Hedge fund liquidity squeeze explained
07:39 Turkey gold swap clarified
12:48 UBS and Goldman Sachs research findings
18:13 China insurance programme opens gold allocation
22:19 Three step framework for evaluating assets

Sources mentioned:
UBS, https://www.ubs.com
Goldman Sachs, https://www.goldmansachs.com
World Gold Council, https://www.gold.org
JP Morgan, https://www.jpmorgan.com

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

Gold has served as money for five millennia, yet most people misunderstand its role in a modern portfolio. In this episode Felix Nikolas Prehn, economist and former investment banker, argues that gold is not an investment but a store of value, a measuring stick that exposes the declining purchasing power of fiat currencies. He traces the history from the Bretton Woods agreement through the 1971 Nixon shock, showing how the US dollar has lost roughly 93 per cent of its value since the gold link was severed. He then examines why central banks bought over 1,000 tonnes of gold in 2025, driven by de-dollarisation, sanctions risk and sovereign debt concerns. Felix concludes that gold functions as a lie detector for governments and that the current macro shift deserves serious attention.

In this episode:
00:00 Why every major civilisation chose gold as money
02:00 Properties that make gold suited to be money
05:00 Gold is a store of value, not an investment
08:50 Bretton Woods and the dollar gold peg
11:30 Nixon ends convertibility in 1971
15:00 How money printing erodes purchasing power
19:00 Central banks buying record amounts of gold
26:00 Risks and opportunities in holding gold and silver

Sources mentioned:
Federal Reserve, https://www.federalreserve.gov
World Gold Council, https://www.gold.org
International Monetary Fund, https://www.imf.org
Bank for International Settlements, https://www.bis.org
COMEX (CME Group), https://www.cmegroup.com

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

The petrodollar system, established in 1974 when Saudi Arabia agreed to price oil exclusively in US dollars, is gradually losing its grip as BRICS nations trade in local currencies and demand for US Treasury bonds weakens. Felix Nikolas Prehn, an economist and former investment banker, traces the consequences: falling bond prices, rising interest rates and downward pressure on stock valuations. He argues the United States is pivoting toward friendshoring, securing energy access through Venezuela and eyeing Cuba, which holds some of the world's largest untapped deposits of cobalt, nickel and rare earth elements essential for batteries, defence and artificial intelligence. Prehn contends the smart money is watching the Caribbean rather than the Middle East, and that a weaker dollar favours hard assets such as gold and critical minerals. He advises reviewing dollar dependent holdings and long term bonds, and considering exposure to mining, infrastructure and supply chain firms in the western hemisphere.

In this episode:
00:00 Why the petrodollar shift matters for portfolios
03:29 Gold and silver miner trades from the past year
05:29 How the 1974 petrodollar agreement worked
07:14 Bond prices, interest rates and stock valuations
09:19 US friendshoring strategy and Venezuela energy access
11:49 Cuba's untapped cobalt, nickel and rare earth deposits
15:01 Mining, infrastructure and supply chain positioning
17:08 Weaker dollar outlook and the case for hard assets

Sources mentioned:
BRICS nations local currency trade arrangements
JP Morgan quarterly earnings reports, https://www.jpmorganchase.com
IAMGOLD Corporation (IAG), https://www.iamgold.com
US Geological Survey (cobalt and nickel data), https://www.usgs.gov

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

The Bretton Woods monetary order is being actively restructured by the people who run it, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has called for a fundamental reset of the global financial system. Felix Nikolas Prehn traces the arc from the 1944 agreement through the Nixon shock of 1971 to the present day, where the dollar's share of global reserves has fallen from 71 per cent to under 58 per cent and central banks are buying gold at record pace. He outlines three policy moves: a managed dollar devaluation of 20 to 40 per cent under the so called Mar a Lago Accord, bank deregulation to unwind post 2008 rules, and tariff driven reshoring guided by a 3-3-3 framework of 3 per cent GDP growth, 3 per cent deficit and 3 million extra barrels of energy per day. He concludes that holding only cash or only US equities carries concentrated risk, and that diversification into hard assets and geographic exposure is prudent preparation.

In this episode:
00:00 Bessent announces a Bretton Woods realignment
02:18 How the original 1944 Bretton Woods system worked
04:02 Nixon ends the gold standard and fiat money begins
07:07 Three policy moves: weaker dollar, deregulation, trade restructuring
12:19 BRICS de-dollarisation and central bank gold buying
14:13 Two scenarios: soft landing versus crisis driven change
15:01 Three risks: cash trap, dollar concentration, timing trap
17:37 Opportunities in hard assets, US manufacturing and diversification

Sources mentioned:
Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary, https://home.treasury.gov
Stephen Miran, Council of Economic Advisers, https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/
International Monetary Fund, https://www.imf.org
World Bank, https://www.worldbank.org
Plaza Accord (1985)
CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System)

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

Banks can fail you without “losing” your money, because access is the first thing that disappears when systems break or regulators step in. We map the pattern behind recent lockouts and hacks, then lay out a practical plan to protect cash flow and spot opportunity without trading headlines. 
• Japan’s shared banking backend and why one failure can hit many banks 
• Paraguay’s bank shutdown and how deposit insurance limits create real pain 
• the myth of steady 10% stock market returns and why decades matter 
• the common pattern across hacks: third-party vendors and invisible plumbing 
• why the IMF and G7-style drills signal rising systemwide cyber risk 
• what “digital dollars” can mean when money includes a freeze function 
• five-step checklist: cash buffer, second bank, insurance limits, paper backup, scam defense 
• why cybersecurity stocks can drop during peak fear and how we watch for a better entry 

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks