Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

The US strategic petroleum reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1982 after 26 consecutive weeks of withdrawals. Felix Nikolas Prehn, an economist and former investment banker, argues this drawdown is not about supply shortages but about suppressing the oil price to keep inflation figures manageable while the government prepares to print more money. He links the reserve depletion to two other developments: the US Treasury doubling its own debt buybacks to four billion dollars per operation, and the fact that three private companies, SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, are now valued above 45 years of public tech listings combined. Household exposure to equities has reached a record, with five stocks making up 30 per cent of the S&P 500. Prehn notes that central banks are buying gold at the fastest pace since 1997 and that informed sellers are rotating out of technology names into cash generating businesses. He concludes that the dollar has lost 93 per cent of its purchasing power since 1971 and that the same pattern is being repeated.

In this episode:
00:00 US strategic petroleum reserve at a 44 year low
01:02 Three signals appearing at the same time
02:33 Debt trap and why inflation is the only political exit
04:37 Venezuelan oil cannot meet reserve specifications
05:38 Manufactured calm before an inflation spike
08:41 Treasury doubles buybacks of its own debt
11:46 Three private firms worth more than 45 years of IPOs
15:19 Informed money rotates into boring toll booth businesses

Sources mentioned:
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve data, https://www.energy.gov
US Department of the Treasury, https://home.treasury.gov
Berkshire Hathaway, https://www.berkshirehathaway.com
SpaceX, https://www.spacex.com
Anthropic, https://www.anthropic.com
OpenAI, https://www.openai.com

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

The dollar reset now under way is not a dramatic redenomination but a slow widening gap between official inflation figures and actual living costs. Felix Nikolas Prehn traces the chain from mortgage rates approaching 8 per cent to the bond market repricing risk at levels last seen before the 2008 crisis. He outlines Bill Ackman's argument that rate rises may be feeding rather than fighting inflation, because AI capital spending and embedded financing costs pass straight through to consumer prices. The episode then examines how the government is changing the PCE calculation method, which one Wall Street strategist estimates could shave half a percentage point off reported inflation without any price in a shop falling. Prehn shows how the Treasury's TGA account is injecting tens of billions into the banking system independently of the Fed, effectively making the Treasury the real central bank. He concludes that the combination of reported lower inflation and quietly looser liquidity amounts to a slow transfer from savers to the government.

In this episode:
00:00 Mortgage rates jump toward 8 per cent overnight
01:00 Bill Ackman argues rate rises may feed inflation
05:01 AI spending ignores higher borrowing costs
07:01 The Fed faces two losing doors on rates
10:32 Government changing how PCE inflation is measured
13:05 Prices up 2200 per cent since 1940
14:06 The quiet dollar reset plan explained
15:36 Treasury TGA account becomes the real central bank

Sources mentioned:
Bill Ackman
Tom Lee, Fundstrat
US Treasury General Account (TGA), https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov
Federal Reserve PCE inflation measure, https://www.bea.gov
New York Fed conference on overnight lending, https://www.newyorkfed.org

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

Money supply in America is growing at its fastest pace since 2022, reaching 23 trillion dollars, and Felix Nikolas Prehn argues this matters more for stock prices than the economic headlines suggest. The episode sets out why high oil prices now benefit American shareholders rather than draining the economy, given that the United States produces roughly 66 per cent more crude than Saudi Arabia. It examines the collapse in real estate job openings, which halved between July and August to their lowest level in the available data, and explains how that weakness may give the Federal Reserve cover to stop raising rates. Prehn notes that 82 per cent of S and P 500 constituents are down even as the index rises, meaning printed money is flowing into a narrow band of stocks rather than lifting the broad market. He draws on the AAII sentiment survey, where 48 per cent of respondents expect lower prices, and historical episodes in which extreme bearishness preceded strong rallies.

In this episode:
00:00 Scary headlines each have a second half the news omits
02:01 America is the largest oil producer and benefits from high prices
04:06 Oil company fundamentals and cash flows are improving
05:07 82 per cent of S and P 500 stocks are down despite index gains
06:37 Skilled money follows the trend rather than buying and holding
07:38 Real estate job openings halved to their lowest recorded level
09:10 Weak housing data may give the Fed cover to ease off rates
10:11 The stock market is not an economic thermometer

Sources mentioned:
U.S. Energy Information Administration (oil production data), https://www.eia.gov
Federal Reserve M2 money supply data, https://www.federalreserve.gov
Bureau of Labour Statistics (job openings data), https://www.bls.gov
American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey, https://www.aaii.com

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

Financial repression is the mechanism by which governments keep interest rates below the rate of inflation, quietly transferring wealth from savers to the state. In this episode Felix Nikolas Prehn traces the policy from a recent presidential admission that inflation will pay off the national debt very rapidly to a Bank for International Settlements study showing the same method erased 2 to 3 per cent of GDP in debt each year after the Second World War. He sets out why the four conventional options for addressing 40 trillion dollars of US debt, raising taxes, cutting spending, defaulting or debasing the currency, leave only debasement as politically survivable. He examines the widening K-shaped economy, presents an hours of work index now at 341 compared with 100 in 2000, and warns that forcing rates down risks eroding the dollar's reserve status if confidence breaks.

In this episode:
00:00 President states inflation will pay off the debt
02:34 The full quote from the magazine interview
04:11 Treasury secretary says the US can grow out of 40 trillion
05:14 Financial repression defined and explained
06:16 Post-war debt erased by holding rates below inflation
06:46 Four options for 40 trillion and why only one survives
10:41 Why interest rates must be forced below inflation
15:40 Hours of work index at 341 versus 100 in 2000

Sources mentioned:
Time magazine interview with the president
Bank for International Settlements study on financial repression (2011), https://www.bis.org
CNBC interview (2016), https://www.cnbc.com
Washington Post interview, https://www.washingtonpost.com
Alan Greenspan quote on printing money
Federal Reserve wealth distribution data, https://www.federalreserve.gov
Ray Dalio on beautiful deleveraging

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

Global bond markets start to fracture at the same time gold takes a sharp hit, and we connect those headlines into one coherent debt story. We walk through why gold can drop at the start of a crisis, how financial repression quietly erodes purchasing power, and what to look at in your portfolio before the herd catches up. 

• Japan’s record 30-year bond yield as the first domino for global borrowing costs 
• France-led European bond selloff spreading to major economies as the “safe room” warms up too 
• US debt interest costs surging while the “strong economy” narrative fails to explain synchronized global yield rises 
• Three mechanical reasons gold falls even when risk rises: stronger dollar, crowded positioning, margin and stop-loss cascades 
• Paper gold versus physical metal and why screen prices can mislead during liquidity stress 
• Financial repression explained in plain English: rates held below inflation as a quiet tax on savings 
• “Hours of work” inflation lens that reframes what an income can actually buy over time 
• Practical moves: avoid panic selling, resize positions, and filter holdings by dependence on cheap debt 
• Why gold often sells off first in crises, then rallies once money printing accelerates 

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

Bond yields are climbing simultaneously in Japan, Europe and the United States, and Felix Nikolas Prehn argues these are not separate headlines but a single debt crisis unfolding across the developed world. Japan's 30-year yield has reached an all-time high while carrying debt of roughly 260 per cent of output. France's bond selloff is spreading to Italy, Belgium and Greece, and even German yields are rising. In America, annual interest on federal debt has reached 1.25 trillion dollars. Gold has fallen alongside these moves, which Prehn attributes to dollar strength, a crowded trade and forced selling through margin calls on the paper market. He traces the same pattern in the 1970s and 2008, when gold dropped early in a crisis before repricing sharply higher once money printing accelerated. Broad money supply is now growing at its fastest pace in four years, and Prehn concludes that governments intend to inflate the debt away through sustained financial repression.

In this episode:
00:00 Japan 30-year bond yield hits all-time high
03:17 Europe's bond selloff spreads from France to Italy, Belgium and Greece
04:19 US debt interest reaches 1.25 trillion dollars a year
05:28 Three reasons gold is falling despite the debt crisis
09:37 Financial repression explained and the plan to inflate debt away
12:13 Hours of work index shows real purchasing power has tripled in cost
14:03 Historical pattern of gold dropping before repricing higher
16:08 How to assess portfolio exposure through a debt lens

Sources mentioned:
Bank of Japan, https://www.boj.or.jp/en/
Alan Greenspan

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

Government debt levels in the United States and other major economies have reached a point where the only politically viable exit is sustained inflation funded by money printing, according to Felix Nikolas Prehn, economist and former investment banker. The episode traces how the US used the same approach after the Second World War and in the 1970s, and how Japan has run a version of it since the 1990s. Felix examines the rapid growth in M2 money supply, the concentration of stock market gains in a narrow band of AI related companies, and the risk of an eventual correction when capital spending overshoots. He discusses central bank gold purchases as a response to the freezing of Russian reserves, the limited alternatives to the dollar, and the likelihood that AI will prove deflationary over time but not before a speculative bubble bursts. His conclusion is that holding cash is a near certain loss and that assets, despite their risks, remain the rational choice.

In this episode:
02:00 Negative economic signals but why stocks can still rise
05:20 M2 money supply growth and government stimulus
10:37 Inflation as the only tool to reduce government debt
14:14 Hours of work index and real cost of assets
17:43 AI spending bubble and the risk of a sharp correction
25:02 Japan as a template for US debt management
30:52 Central bank gold buying after Russian asset freezes
35:14 Dollar dominance and stablecoins as a prop for demand

Sources mentioned:
Federal Reserve M2 money supply data, https://www.federalreserve.gov
AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) sentiment survey, https://www.aaii.com
Prehn Institute
Jim Rogers

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

We lay out what it means when a US president says inflation can “pay off” the national debt and why that turns savers into the funding source. We break down financial repression, the deadline created by high rates, and how to choose the side of the trade that benefits when dollars buy less. 
• the full quote and why it signals policy intent 
• why politicians avoid tax rises, spending cuts, and default 
• financial repression as rates below inflation 
• how savers quietly cover the bill through lost purchasing power 
• the post World War II precedent for inflating debt away 
• why today’s bond yields and refinancing create a ticking clock 
• how forced rate cuts change markets and portfolios 
• checking inflation exposure and spotting “zombie” stocks 
• who wins and loses in a K-shaped economy 
• the risk of weakening dollar trust and capital flight 

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👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

Scary headlines sound like a sell signal, but I walk through the “second half” of each story and why it can point to opportunity instead of panic. I connect oil, housing, Fed policy, investor fear, and money supply to one simple question: which way is the money moving?

• high oil prices as a potential tailwind for US producers and energy supply chains 
• why the biggest winner from expensive oil can be America 
• using quality signals like revenue, profit, and cash flow instead of buying “oil” broadly 
• S&P 500 concentration risk and why most constituents can be down while the index looks fine 
• why professional money follows flows and trends rather than holding forever 
• housing as the first place rate pressure breaks and how that affects Fed decisions 
• why the stock market can rise during ugly economic periods and fall during strong job markets 
• AAII investor bearishness as a contrarian indicator when fear gets extreme 
• M2 money supply growth, liquidity, and why cash can melt under inflation 
• practical mindset shift from “how’s the economy” to “where’s the money going”

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

We connect the sudden jump in US mortgage rates to the bond market and lay out why the Fed can look tough while inflation pressures keep building underneath. We also explain how a change to the PCE inflation calculation and quiet Treasury liquidity moves can create a growing gap between official numbers and real-life bills. 

• how the 10-year Treasury yield drives 30-year mortgage rates 
• why investors, not the Fed, set the price of borrowing for homes 
• Bill Ackman’s argument that higher rates can raise prices through embedded financing costs 
• how AI spending and supply shortages can keep demand hot despite rate hikes 
• why buy and hold index fund logic gets harder when rates and prices rise together 
• what “follow the money” means and how institutions adjust positioning 
• how PCE methodology changes can lower reported inflation without lowering prices 
• why long-run inflation acts like a quiet transfer from savers to big borrowers 
• what the Treasury General Account signals about hidden liquidity support 

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks