Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

Silver priced against the S&P 500 is sitting near its lowest reading in half a century, a level that has preceded every major multi-year silver rally of the past fifty years. In this episode Felix Nikolas Prehn traces two rule changes driving the shift. First, Basel 3 net stable funding requirements now force banks to hold 85 per cent cash backing against unallocated paper silver, pushing them towards physical metal and raising costs on what was once a profit centre. Second, China replaced its 25 year old silver export regime at the start of this year with tight licensing, restricting outflows from refiners that handle an estimated 60 to 70 per cent of global refined silver exports. Meanwhile COMEX registered inventories have fallen from 114 million ounces to roughly 76 million, the world has run a silver supply deficit for six consecutive years, and the solar industry alone consumes about 20 per cent of annual mine output. Felix outlines a three signal framework and stresses that silver remains highly volatile.

In this episode:
00:00 Silver to S&P 500 ratio near a 50 year low
03:00 How the ratio chart has preceded past silver rallies
07:00 Basel 3 and the 85 per cent unallocated silver funding rule
10:52 China tightens silver export licensing after 25 years
14:11 Chinese silver imports surge and solar demand at 20 per cent of supply
16:36 COMEX vault drawdowns and paper leverage at 7.6 to 1
19:00 Three signal framework for silver and stocks
22:47 Volatility warning and risk management guidance

Sources mentioned:
Bank for International Settlements (Basel 3), https://www.bis.org
Silver Institute (World Silver Survey), https://www.silverinstitute.org
COMEX (CME Group), https://www.cmegroup.com
Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com
Brinks, https://www.brinks.com

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

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The petrodollar system built in 1974 tied Saudi oil sales to the dollar and recycled the proceeds into American assets. Felix Nikolas Prehn explains how the recent missile strike on Riyadh's main airport has accelerated a quiet shift in Saudi Arabia's security and financial alignments. With defence pacts now signed with Turkey and Pakistan, and calls going to Paris and Islamabad rather than Washington, the episode examines whether the other side of the original bargain still holds. It covers Saudi Arabia's sale of roughly 11 billion dollars in US treasuries in a single month, the fixed riyal peg maintained since 1986, the mBridge payment system that bypasses the dollar, and central banks continuing to buy gold through its worst quarter since 2013. Prehn argues the key signal to watch is Saudi Arabia's official gold reserves, a number that has barely moved for years but may soon start climbing.

In this episode:
00:00 Missile strike on Riyadh airport and US response
00:57 Origins of the 1974 petrodollar arrangement
04:07 The Saudi riyal peg and foreign reserves
06:30 Saudi treasury sales and shifting alliances
07:48 Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea and shipping costs
09:07 mBridge and alternatives to dollar settlement
10:18 Central banks buying gold into a downturn
10:59 Portfolio checks for oil shock exposure

Sources mentioned:
The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com
Saudi Central Bank (SAMA), https://www.sama.gov.sa
mBridge (BIS project), https://www.bis.org

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

I break down the growing signs that the US Treasury is leaning on the bond market while long-term yields keep rising anyway. Then I connect that bond math to real life: mortgage rates, inflation pressure tied to AI spending, and how concentrated the stock market has become. 

• how Treasury yields act as the price of money for mortgages, loans, and pensions 
• why foreign demand is fading and why the Fed is no longer the default buyer 
• what Treasury buybacks signal and why shifting to short-term bills changes the risk 
• Morgan Stanley’s R versus G framework and what happens when interest costs outrun growth 
• how AI investment can push inflation higher through chips, hardware, and software pricing 
• why AI-driven stock market concentration looks like a classic bubble setup 
• three practical moves: map what you own, check companies for debt risk, stop assuming long bonds are safe 

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Japan's 30-year government bond yield hit a record 4.18 per cent, a event Felix Nikolas Prehn argues is a dress rehearsal for what awaits the United States and other heavily indebted economies. The episode traces the so-called widow maker trade, which bet against Japanese bonds for three decades and has now finally paid off, wiping more than 200 billion dollars from Japanese equities in a single session. Prehn draws parallels between today's AI-driven speculation and the NASDAQ bubble of 2000, noting that global yields have reached levels not seen since 2007 or earlier. He examines how the dollar has lost roughly 88 per cent of its purchasing power since 1971 and warns that the paper gold market carries far more claims than physical metal in vaults. Many gold funds, he notes, hold no actual bars, leaving holders with promises rather than protection.

In this episode:
00:00 Japan's 30-year bond yield hits an all-time high of 4.18 per cent
01:00 The widow maker trade finally pays off after three decades
05:02 How the Bank of Japan suppressed rates by buying its own debt
06:02 The yen weakens as the price of sustained money printing
07:02 AI capital spending collides with rising global interest rates
08:04 Parallels between today's valuations and the NASDAQ 2000 crash
10:05 US 30-year yields touch 5.3 per cent amid a global bond sell-off
12:09 The dollar has lost 88 per cent of purchasing power since 1971

Sources mentioned:
Financial Times (global bond sell-off reporting), https://www.ft.com
Warren Buffett (referenced via associate remarks on internet bubble)
Kevin Warsh (Federal Reserve)

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

A monetary reset is already under way, according to Felix Nikolas Prehn, a former investment banker who traces four concurrent developments back to a single cause. European central banks are shipping gold home from New York vaults for the first time in decades. Norway's sovereign wealth fund has proposed cutting roughly 80 billion dollars of US treasury holdings. Twenty one of the world's largest banks, including Goldman Sachs, Citi and Bank of America, have announced a joint US dollar stablecoin set to launch in 2027. Meanwhile the US president has publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to cut rates ahead of its September meeting. Prehn argues these moves all reflect eroding trust in the existing dollar system and draws a parallel with the Netherlands' gold conversion request in 1971, which preceded the end of dollar gold convertibility. He concludes that holding diversified hard assets and businesses with pricing power is a more prudent stance than remaining fully concentrated in a top heavy index.

In this episode:
00:00 The September Fed deadline and presidential pressure on rate cuts
01:02 Gold physically leaving American vaults for Europe
05:09 S&P 500 concentration in ten stocks driving 72 per cent of gains
07:41 Gold as a trust barometer for the dollar system
09:11 The 1971 Dutch gold request and the Nixon shock parallel
12:14 Norway's sovereign wealth fund trimming US treasuries
13:45 Japan's market wobble as the first crack in the system
14:47 Twenty one banks building a digital dollar stablecoin for 2027

Sources mentioned:
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, https://www.newyorkfed.org
Norges Bank Investment Management (Norway sovereign wealth fund), https://www.nbim.no
Jan Nieuwenhuijs (gold analyst)
GENIUS Act (US stablecoin legislation)
Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett), https://www.berkshirehathaway.com

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

The US Treasury's decision to double its debt buyback programme and run it through to early November is the focus of this episode. Felix Nikolas Prehn, a former investment banker, traces how the government is creating new money to purchase its own long-dated bonds at the same time as Japan, historically the most loyal foreign holder of American debt, sold roughly 88 billion dollars of US bonds in a single month. He sets out how real world inflation since 2020 has, in his view, exceeded 100 per cent, and notes that the dollar has lost roughly 93 per cent of its value since 1971 on official figures alone. He examines the additional pressure of an estimated one trillion dollars in corporate borrowing for AI data centres, the physical movement of gold out of US vaults at record levels, and the concentration of S&P 500 gains in just ten names. He concludes that holding assets with real pricing power matters more than ever when the money supply is expanding this fast.

In this episode:
00:00 Treasury doubles its debt buyback programme through to November
01:00 Physical gold leaving US vaults at record export levels
01:33 Japan sells 88 billion dollars of American debt in one month
04:05 Real inflation since 2020 estimated at well over 100 per cent
05:36 How the buyback mechanism works and who pays for it
06:36 Fed rate expectations diverge from government loosening
13:46 AI buildout adds roughly one trillion dollars in new corporate debt
17:19 Pattern matches the 1971 closing of the gold window

Sources mentioned:
US Treasury refunding statement, https://home.treasury.gov
Japanese investor holdings of US debt (Ministry of Finance Japan), https://www.mof.go.jp/english/
US Bureau of Labour Statistics (dollar purchasing power), https://www.bls.gov

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

A missile strike in Saudi Arabia kicks off a chain reaction that can end in higher inflation and a weaker dollar, even if you never follow foreign policy. We connect the 1974 petrodollar deal, the Saudi riyal peg, central bank gold buying, and what to check in your own holdings before the market reprices risk. 
• the missile strike as a currency and portfolio story 
• why oil spikes hit gas, groceries, heating, then investments 
• the 1974 oil for dollars arrangement and why it supports the US dollar 
• how the Saudi riyal peg forces Saudi rates to shadow the Fed 
• what it means when Saudi trims US Treasuries 
• the physical risk in shipping routes and refinery targets 
• the financial side door of non dollar settlement systems like mBridge 
• why central bank gold buying matters even when gold prices fall 
• a simple at home checklist to map holdings and stress test for inflation 

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👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

We break down why America’s jump in borrowing costs signals a credit reset that can ripple through mortgages, pensions, and stock valuations long before mainstream headlines change. We connect cracked corporate bond charts in AI-linked giants to broad market weakness, then map out why silver and long-term bonds could become opportunity zones if the Fed is forced to respond. 

• defining the credit reset in plain English and why yields reprice everything 
• showing how higher Treasury yields collide with $40T in government debt 
• walking through the three policy doors and why inflationary money printing is tempting 
• reading bond market stress in Oracle, SpaceX, Meta-linked financing, and Paramount 
• explaining concentration risk as AI becomes a huge share of index performance 
• unpacking the $1.6B silver outflow and how trend funds plus leverage create forced selling 
• outlining why metals can benefit when the Fed expands liquidity, with clear risks if it does not 
• making the contrarian case for long-term bonds and how duration cuts both ways 
• emphasizing process over predictions, plus position sizing and downside control 

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The Federal Reserve is losing its grip on long term interest rates, according to senior Goldman Sachs traders who describe the central bank as more passenger than driver. Felix Nikolas Prehn walks through the mechanism: technology companies building AI infrastructure are on track to issue more debt than the US government next year, with borrowing approaching 1.3 trillion dollars. That wave is absorbing global savings, pushing bond yields higher and creating inflation before any productivity gains arrive. Meanwhile, central banks have doubled annual gold purchases to over 1,000 tonnes, absorbing roughly a third of new mine supply and thinning the market available to other buyers. Goldman's metals desk calls the recent gold pullback an elongated pause rather than a top, viewing 4,000 dollars an ounce as a floor. Silver offers larger potential moves in both directions owing to its far thinner investment market. The episode concludes that inaction carries its own considerable risk.

In this episode:
00:00 Goldman traders say the Fed is now a passenger
01:33 Gold desk calls the dip an elongated pause
04:38 AI borrowing set to dwarf US government debt
06:10 The global savings glut era is declared over
08:41 AI spending is inflationary before productivity arrives
09:42 Government bond buybacks called a firecracker in a hurricane
16:48 Central banks doubled gold purchases to over 1000 tonnes
20:24 Silver offers bigger upside but violent drops

Sources mentioned:
Goldman Sachs cross-asset trading desk, https://www.goldmansachs.com
Tony Kim, Goldman Sachs global metals trading
Mark Wilson, Goldman Sachs equity franchise sales

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

Gold pulled back roughly 20 per cent from its highs, yet central banks bought a record amount in a single quarter, spending some 40 billion dollars on the metal. Felix Nikolas Prehn connects this buying spree to a broader pattern: Bank of America data showing productivity and consumer confidence falling together for the first time since 2008, despite 1.5 trillion dollars already spent on AI. He examines the concentration risk inside the S and P 500, where 70 per cent of this year's gains came from just ten AI related stocks. He outlines the BRICS backed Unit settlement system, designed to bypass SWIFT and underpinned by 40 per cent gold, potentially launching later this year. Drawing parallels with the 1940s, when the Federal Reserve pinned rates to absorb government debt and inflation halved the purchasing power of savings in six years, he argues the same debt playbook is repeating now with US debt again above 120 per cent of GDP.

In this episode:
00:00 Productivity and consumer confidence fall together for the first time since 2008
03:32 1.5 trillion dollars spent on AI with no measurable productivity gain
05:05 Altman, Amodei and Musk call to slow AI development
06:06 Ten stocks account for 70 per cent of S and P 500 returns this year
11:12 Central banks bought a record amount of gold in a single quarter
13:14 The Unit settlement system backed by 40 per cent gold explained
14:46 Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan gold price targets up to 6000 dollars
17:23 The 1940s debt playbook and how it quietly eroded savings

Sources mentioned:
Bank of America (Michael Hartnett research)
Goldman Sachs, https://www.goldmansachs.com
JP Morgan, https://www.jpmorgan.com
ING, https://www.ing.com
Financial Times, https://www.ft.com
Kitco, https://www.kitco.com
OpenAI (Sam Altman), https://www.openai.com
Anthropic (Dario Amodei), https://www.anthropic.com

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks