Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

The US Treasury's decision to double its debt buyback programme and run it through to early November is the focus of this episode. Felix Nikolas Prehn, a former investment banker, traces how the government is creating new money to purchase its own long-dated bonds at the same time as Japan, historically the most loyal foreign holder of American debt, sold roughly 88 billion dollars of US bonds in a single month. He sets out how real world inflation since 2020 has, in his view, exceeded 100 per cent, and notes that the dollar has lost roughly 93 per cent of its value since 1971 on official figures alone. He examines the additional pressure of an estimated one trillion dollars in corporate borrowing for AI data centres, the physical movement of gold out of US vaults at record levels, and the concentration of S&P 500 gains in just ten names. He concludes that holding assets with real pricing power matters more than ever when the money supply is expanding this fast.

In this episode:
00:00 Treasury doubles its debt buyback programme through to November
01:00 Physical gold leaving US vaults at record export levels
01:33 Japan sells 88 billion dollars of American debt in one month
04:05 Real inflation since 2020 estimated at well over 100 per cent
05:36 How the buyback mechanism works and who pays for it
06:36 Fed rate expectations diverge from government loosening
13:46 AI buildout adds roughly one trillion dollars in new corporate debt
17:19 Pattern matches the 1971 closing of the gold window

Sources mentioned:
US Treasury refunding statement, https://home.treasury.gov
Japanese investor holdings of US debt (Ministry of Finance Japan), https://www.mof.go.jp/english/
US Bureau of Labour Statistics (dollar purchasing power), https://www.bls.gov

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

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A missile strike in Saudi Arabia kicks off a chain reaction that can end in higher inflation and a weaker dollar, even if you never follow foreign policy. We connect the 1974 petrodollar deal, the Saudi riyal peg, central bank gold buying, and what to check in your own holdings before the market reprices risk. 
• the missile strike as a currency and portfolio story 
• why oil spikes hit gas, groceries, heating, then investments 
• the 1974 oil for dollars arrangement and why it supports the US dollar 
• how the Saudi riyal peg forces Saudi rates to shadow the Fed 
• what it means when Saudi trims US Treasuries 
• the physical risk in shipping routes and refinery targets 
• the financial side door of non dollar settlement systems like mBridge 
• why central bank gold buying matters even when gold prices fall 
• a simple at home checklist to map holdings and stress test for inflation 

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We break down why America’s jump in borrowing costs signals a credit reset that can ripple through mortgages, pensions, and stock valuations long before mainstream headlines change. We connect cracked corporate bond charts in AI-linked giants to broad market weakness, then map out why silver and long-term bonds could become opportunity zones if the Fed is forced to respond. 

• defining the credit reset in plain English and why yields reprice everything 
• showing how higher Treasury yields collide with $40T in government debt 
• walking through the three policy doors and why inflationary money printing is tempting 
• reading bond market stress in Oracle, SpaceX, Meta-linked financing, and Paramount 
• explaining concentration risk as AI becomes a huge share of index performance 
• unpacking the $1.6B silver outflow and how trend funds plus leverage create forced selling 
• outlining why metals can benefit when the Fed expands liquidity, with clear risks if it does not 
• making the contrarian case for long-term bonds and how duration cuts both ways 
• emphasizing process over predictions, plus position sizing and downside control 

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The Federal Reserve is losing its grip on long term interest rates, according to senior Goldman Sachs traders who describe the central bank as more passenger than driver. Felix Nikolas Prehn walks through the mechanism: technology companies building AI infrastructure are on track to issue more debt than the US government next year, with borrowing approaching 1.3 trillion dollars. That wave is absorbing global savings, pushing bond yields higher and creating inflation before any productivity gains arrive. Meanwhile, central banks have doubled annual gold purchases to over 1,000 tonnes, absorbing roughly a third of new mine supply and thinning the market available to other buyers. Goldman's metals desk calls the recent gold pullback an elongated pause rather than a top, viewing 4,000 dollars an ounce as a floor. Silver offers larger potential moves in both directions owing to its far thinner investment market. The episode concludes that inaction carries its own considerable risk.

In this episode:
00:00 Goldman traders say the Fed is now a passenger
01:33 Gold desk calls the dip an elongated pause
04:38 AI borrowing set to dwarf US government debt
06:10 The global savings glut era is declared over
08:41 AI spending is inflationary before productivity arrives
09:42 Government bond buybacks called a firecracker in a hurricane
16:48 Central banks doubled gold purchases to over 1000 tonnes
20:24 Silver offers bigger upside but violent drops

Sources mentioned:
Goldman Sachs cross-asset trading desk, https://www.goldmansachs.com
Tony Kim, Goldman Sachs global metals trading
Mark Wilson, Goldman Sachs equity franchise sales

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

Gold pulled back roughly 20 per cent from its highs, yet central banks bought a record amount in a single quarter, spending some 40 billion dollars on the metal. Felix Nikolas Prehn connects this buying spree to a broader pattern: Bank of America data showing productivity and consumer confidence falling together for the first time since 2008, despite 1.5 trillion dollars already spent on AI. He examines the concentration risk inside the S and P 500, where 70 per cent of this year's gains came from just ten AI related stocks. He outlines the BRICS backed Unit settlement system, designed to bypass SWIFT and underpinned by 40 per cent gold, potentially launching later this year. Drawing parallels with the 1940s, when the Federal Reserve pinned rates to absorb government debt and inflation halved the purchasing power of savings in six years, he argues the same debt playbook is repeating now with US debt again above 120 per cent of GDP.

In this episode:
00:00 Productivity and consumer confidence fall together for the first time since 2008
03:32 1.5 trillion dollars spent on AI with no measurable productivity gain
05:05 Altman, Amodei and Musk call to slow AI development
06:06 Ten stocks account for 70 per cent of S and P 500 returns this year
11:12 Central banks bought a record amount of gold in a single quarter
13:14 The Unit settlement system backed by 40 per cent gold explained
14:46 Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan gold price targets up to 6000 dollars
17:23 The 1940s debt playbook and how it quietly eroded savings

Sources mentioned:
Bank of America (Michael Hartnett research)
Goldman Sachs, https://www.goldmansachs.com
JP Morgan, https://www.jpmorgan.com
ING, https://www.ing.com
Financial Times, https://www.ft.com
Kitco, https://www.kitco.com
OpenAI (Sam Altman), https://www.openai.com
Anthropic (Dario Amodei), https://www.anthropic.com

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

Sulphuric acid may be an obscure commodity, but its sudden disappearance from global markets matters. Felix Nikolas Prehn explains how Russia's export ban, following China's earlier cut, removes the two largest suppliers of a chemical essential to fertiliser production. The remaining supply depends on Middle Eastern sulphur shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, the same chokepoint carrying a fifth of the world's oil. With crude above one hundred dollars a barrel and Chevron's chief executive stating that price buffers are exhausted, Prehn argues that energy and food inflation will arrive together. He then examines how Washington's sanctions programme is pushing foreign holders away from the dollar, why hedge funds sitting on 2.2 trillion dollars of leveraged treasury positions pose a systemic risk, and why central banks have bought 22 billion dollars of gold in three weeks. He concludes that the Federal Reserve is trapped between defending the bond market and defending the currency, and that the likely outcome is further money printing.

In this episode:
00:00 Russia bans sulphuric acid exports, following China's earlier cut
01:02 Half the world's sulphur transits the Strait of Hormuz
02:02 Oil above one hundred dollars and rising
03:05 Fertiliser shortage threatens food prices
04:05 Chevron CEO says price buffers are exhausted
06:40 Dollar weaponised through sanctions on Iran
10:43 Hedge funds hold 2.2 trillion dollars in leveraged treasury trades
17:53 Fed trapped between bond market and dollar stability

Sources mentioned:
Chevron (CEO remarks on fuel crisis), https://www.chevron.com
US Treasury (Operation Economic Outcast sanctions), https://home.treasury.gov
Federal Reserve, https://www.federalreserve.gov

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

Gold and its role during supply side inflation form the core of this episode. Felix Nikolas Prehn, an economist and former investment banker, traces the parallels between the current environment and the 1970s oil shock, when gold rose from roughly 100 dollars to 850 dollars. He argues that raising interest rates does not address inflation driven by energy input costs and instead punishes borrowers while leaving the underlying price pressure intact. The episode examines how 8 trillion dollars of US government debt must be refinanced at higher rates, why the debt to GDP ratio now matches post war levels, and how that constrains the authorities from holding rates high long enough to suppress inflation. Central banks are responding by buying gold at the fastest pace since the late 1990s. Prehn concludes that inflation is likely to run hotter than official figures suggest, eroding the purchasing power of cash and concentrated equity portfolios alike.

In this episode:
00:00 Fed raises rates into an oil shock
01:02 Farming input costs and diesel prices surge
03:34 Supply side versus demand side inflation explained
08:08 Energy costs multiply through the economy
09:39 Dollar purchasing power decline since 2000
12:43 Government debt refinancing at higher rates
14:17 Volcker era compared with current debt levels
19:55 Central bank gold buying at fastest pace in decades

Sources mentioned:
Financial Times, https://www.ft.com
US Federal Reserve, https://www.federalreserve.gov
John Boyd Jr. (American farmer)

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

The US strategic petroleum reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1982 after 26 consecutive weeks of withdrawals. Felix Nikolas Prehn, an economist and former investment banker, argues this drawdown is not about supply shortages but about suppressing the oil price to keep inflation figures manageable while the government prepares to print more money. He links the reserve depletion to two other developments: the US Treasury doubling its own debt buybacks to four billion dollars per operation, and the fact that three private companies, SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, are now valued above 45 years of public tech listings combined. Household exposure to equities has reached a record, with five stocks making up 30 per cent of the S&P 500. Prehn notes that central banks are buying gold at the fastest pace since 1997 and that informed sellers are rotating out of technology names into cash generating businesses. He concludes that the dollar has lost 93 per cent of its purchasing power since 1971 and that the same pattern is being repeated.

In this episode:
00:00 US strategic petroleum reserve at a 44 year low
01:02 Three signals appearing at the same time
02:33 Debt trap and why inflation is the only political exit
04:37 Venezuelan oil cannot meet reserve specifications
05:38 Manufactured calm before an inflation spike
08:41 Treasury doubles buybacks of its own debt
11:46 Three private firms worth more than 45 years of IPOs
15:19 Informed money rotates into boring toll booth businesses

Sources mentioned:
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve data, https://www.energy.gov
US Department of the Treasury, https://home.treasury.gov
Berkshire Hathaway, https://www.berkshirehathaway.com
SpaceX, https://www.spacex.com
Anthropic, https://www.anthropic.com
OpenAI, https://www.openai.com

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

The dollar reset now under way is not a dramatic redenomination but a slow widening gap between official inflation figures and actual living costs. Felix Nikolas Prehn traces the chain from mortgage rates approaching 8 per cent to the bond market repricing risk at levels last seen before the 2008 crisis. He outlines Bill Ackman's argument that rate rises may be feeding rather than fighting inflation, because AI capital spending and embedded financing costs pass straight through to consumer prices. The episode then examines how the government is changing the PCE calculation method, which one Wall Street strategist estimates could shave half a percentage point off reported inflation without any price in a shop falling. Prehn shows how the Treasury's TGA account is injecting tens of billions into the banking system independently of the Fed, effectively making the Treasury the real central bank. He concludes that the combination of reported lower inflation and quietly looser liquidity amounts to a slow transfer from savers to the government.

In this episode:
00:00 Mortgage rates jump toward 8 per cent overnight
01:00 Bill Ackman argues rate rises may feed inflation
05:01 AI spending ignores higher borrowing costs
07:01 The Fed faces two losing doors on rates
10:32 Government changing how PCE inflation is measured
13:05 Prices up 2200 per cent since 1940
14:06 The quiet dollar reset plan explained
15:36 Treasury TGA account becomes the real central bank

Sources mentioned:
Bill Ackman
Tom Lee, Fundstrat
US Treasury General Account (TGA), https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov
Federal Reserve PCE inflation measure, https://www.bea.gov
New York Fed conference on overnight lending, https://www.newyorkfed.org

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

Money supply in America is growing at its fastest pace since 2022, reaching 23 trillion dollars, and Felix Nikolas Prehn argues this matters more for stock prices than the economic headlines suggest. The episode sets out why high oil prices now benefit American shareholders rather than draining the economy, given that the United States produces roughly 66 per cent more crude than Saudi Arabia. It examines the collapse in real estate job openings, which halved between July and August to their lowest level in the available data, and explains how that weakness may give the Federal Reserve cover to stop raising rates. Prehn notes that 82 per cent of S and P 500 constituents are down even as the index rises, meaning printed money is flowing into a narrow band of stocks rather than lifting the broad market. He draws on the AAII sentiment survey, where 48 per cent of respondents expect lower prices, and historical episodes in which extreme bearishness preceded strong rallies.

In this episode:
00:00 Scary headlines each have a second half the news omits
02:01 America is the largest oil producer and benefits from high prices
04:06 Oil company fundamentals and cash flows are improving
05:07 82 per cent of S and P 500 stocks are down despite index gains
06:37 Skilled money follows the trend rather than buying and holding
07:38 Real estate job openings halved to their lowest recorded level
09:10 Weak housing data may give the Fed cover to ease off rates
10:11 The stock market is not an economic thermometer

Sources mentioned:
U.S. Energy Information Administration (oil production data), https://www.eia.gov
Federal Reserve M2 money supply data, https://www.federalreserve.gov
Bureau of Labour Statistics (job openings data), https://www.bls.gov
American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey, https://www.aaii.com

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks