Tuesday 14th Februarey 2023

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US CPI is released later today and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says we can expect a market reaction whichever way it comes out. Certainly, markets are divided, with bond yields rising today suggesting rising expectations for central bank hikes, whereas equities are also up suggesting an easier path. That expectation of a path with less rate hikes comes from a New York Fed Inflation Survey which showed that household income is expected to fall this year, which it is assumed will ease price pressures. But we’ve also seen evidence of US retail spending picking up post-Christmas. Clearly opinion is divided on today’s number so, as Rodrigo puts it, ‘expect fireworks’.

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