First Bite

Taco Bell held its inaugural Live Más Live event Friday in a popup space on the Las Vegas Strip, harnessing a little extra energy from the city amid its Super Bowl revelry.

We’ve spent a lot of time in recent years talking about chicken. Justifiably so — demand for the protein surpassed beef as younger consumers in particular prefer chicken’s health-halo, versatility, and portability. 

But during all of this, a number of chains have been reworking their burgers, pouring time and money into upgrading the sandwiches themselves, as well as the equipment used to make them, ensuring their core products are top of mind for an increasingly sophisticated consumer who still very much loves beef. 

Among them is McDonald’s. And when McDonald’s makes adjustments, the industry is wise to pay attention. Other brands sharpening their focus on burgers recently include Red Robin, Jack in the Box, and Mellow Mushroom.

Last month, the U.S. Supreme Court agreed to hear Starbucks’ appeal of one of many labor-related lawsuits filed against the Seattle-based coffee chain. This appeal is Starbucks’ response to an Aug. 2022 U.S. district court decision, which ordered the coffee chain to reinstate seven previously fired workers in Memphis, Tenn., who were terminated earlier that year during an attempt to unionize the store.

Chipotle’s Q4 2023 results far exceeded expectations, as well as the industry at large, with Tuesday’s report showing a same-store sales increase of 8.4%. Revenue increased 15.4% to $2.5 billion, while restaurant level operating margin increased to 25.4%, or about 140 basis points.

The company also opened a record 121 new restaurants during the quarter, 110 of those in the Chipotlane model. The highlight of the company’s report, however, was its transaction gain of 7.4%. This is compared to a 1.6% decline across the limited-service segment in the quarter, according to Placer.ai data, as well as negative traffic recently reported by both Starbucks and McDonald’s.

If this all sounds familiar, it’s because Chipotle reported traffic increases of over 4% in Q3, compared to negative 4.2% industrywide. Notably, Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol said this time around the chain has shown strength across all income cohorts – a different tune than McDonald’s, which reported earlier this week it has experienced negative transactions from lower-income consumers.

The National Restaurant Association released its annual 2024 State of the Industry report, and unsurprisingly, technology is one of the top concerns both for consumers and operators. In fact, according to the report, more than three-quarters of operators believe that technology gives them a competitive edge. But they still believe they have a long way to go, as only 13% of operators said that their restaurant technology is leading-edge. To remedy this gap in technology investment, 60% of operators said they plan to invest in consumer-facing technology in 2024, while just over half plan to invest in kitchen-facing technologies.

McDonald’s reported mixed results from its Q4 and full-year earnings report Monday morning. The company’s quarterly same-store sales, at 3.4%, fell short of expectations and were weighed down by the war in the Middle East.

Domestically, same-store sales were up 4.3%, mostly in line with expectations but well below the company’s performance in its most recent quarters. U.S. same-store sales in Q4 2022 were up over 10%, for instance, while the company is up over 30% versus where it was in 2019. CEO Chris Kempczinski said he expects the rest of this year to play out similarly to Q4, which is “normalized growth.”

In the U.S., McDonald’s is navigating transaction reductions from its lower-income consumers making $45,000 and below. Kempczinski noted that these consumers are likely opting to eat at home as grocery/supermarket inflation has cooled faster than food-away-from-home. The company is focused on re-engaging these customers this year.

A U.S. District Court judge has granted food supplier US Foods default judgment in its July lawsuit against Boston Market for unpaid bills, starting in 2022. Although Judge Manish Shah explained that default judgment is a “harsh sanction,” in this case both the court and plaintiffs had no choice because Boston Market had “intentionally dodged their obligations to the court” in a display of “bad faith to avoid this case.”

Chipotle founder Steve Ells’ semi-automated, plant-based restaurant, Kernel — which raised $36 million in Series A funding last summer — has received some superstar investors and an official opening date. New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones and Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (the latter is a known strict vegetarian) have received equity stakes in Kernel in exchange for their monetary investments in the budding company, according to The New York Post.

Although the first quarter is usually one of the highest-performing times of the year for Starbucks — including both pumpkin spice and red cup season — Starbucks saw a traffic downturn for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2023, with North America comparable sales up only 5%, driven mostly by menu price increases.

During the Starbucks earnings call on Tuesday, CEO Laxman Narasimhan pointed to the Israel-Palestine conflict as a source of friction in both the Middle Eastern markets and in the U.S., where there have been calls for boycotts of Starbucks from supporters on both sides of the conflict. Narasimhan also explained that slower spending in China contributed to headwinds for the quarter — an issue that was highlighted by Luckin Coffee overtaking Starbucks as the number one coffee chain in China this November.

As January ends, fourth-quarter earnings for the restaurant industry begin. This quarter laps the last quarter of 2022 where winter storm Elliot ravaged the country with blistering cold and snow. That’s compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 where restaurants were able to celebrate that Christmas landed on a Monday and overall favorable weather through the end of the year.

That means the editors at NRN are anticipating same-store sales increases across many brands though some segments are expected to lag. Mainly casual dining except for Darden, most likely, because of the company’s immense popularity. Five of Darden’s brands landed on our report, America’s Favorite Chains and we expect their earnings to show as much.

Expect the next week to hold some big numbers as Brinker, McDonald’s, Chipotle, and Yum Brands report.

However, investors have said that they expect the consumer to soften in 2024 so this may be the last bit of good news for a while.