A former OpenAI researcher correctly saw where the AI boom was headed, built a hedge fund around that prediction, and watched it grow to roughly $45 billion in assets.
Then July happened.
Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness fund lost 67% of its portfolio, wiping out roughly $35 billion. But the interesting part of this story is that his original bet on AI may not have been wrong.
So how do you lose $35 billion while being right about the bigger trend?
In this episode of First Sip, I break down what happened, what a hedge fund actually is, how leverage can multiply both your wins and losses, and how a margin call can force you to sell an investment even when you still believe in it.
More importantly, we get into the lesson that applies far beyond Wall Street: being right doesn’t matter if you don’t have enough runway to survive being early.
If you’re building a business, investing, using debt, or betting on an idea you believe in, this is a story worth understanding.
Stay tuned, stay curious, and as always, enjoy your first sip.
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