Fixed Interests

In the latest Fixed Interests Podcast,Tony Stringer, Managing Director, Global Sovereigns and Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, discuss the Global Economic Outlook for 2019, noting global growth prospects have deteriorated significantly since December 2018.

Shelly Shetty, Co-head of Sovereigns—Americas, and Richard Francis, Primary Fitch Analyst for Colombia, discuss the fiscal and growth challenges for Colombia and how the new government is trying to tackle those issues.​

Tony Stringer Managing Director, Global Sovereigns and Erich Arispe, Director, Fitch Ratings, discuss the Positive Outlook for Russia which reflects continued progress in strengthening the economic policy framework underpinned by a more flexible exchange rate, a strong commitment to inflation-targeting and a prudent fiscal strategy. This policy mix has increased the economy's resilience to shocks and helped preserve macroeconomic and financial stability despite the heightened sanctions' risk

Public finances in several developed markets look exposed when the next recession eventually strikes, with potential negative consequences for some sovereign ratings.

Persistently high fiscal deficits leading to rising debt burden and high government financing needs has led Fitch to downgrade Costa Rica. Charles Seville, Head of North America Sovereigns, and Carlos Morales, Director, Sovereigns, discuss Costa Rica in more detail, exploring the reasons behind the downgrade and how this negative outlook may be resolved.

Tune into our latest Fixed Interest podcast with Brian Coulton, Chief Economist and Tony Stringer, COO, Global Sovereigns Group, who discuss what's in store for the global economy in 2019.

For more content providing in-depth insight into credit in 2019, including reports, videos and webinars visit our dedicated Credit Outlook page https://your.fitchratings.com/outlooks-2019.html

Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).

Tune into the latest Fixed Interests and listen to James McCormack, Global Head of Sovereigns, and Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, discuss how global growth prospects remain robust despite rising trade tensions and political risks.

Accelerating private investment, tightening labor markets, pro-cyclical US fiscal easing and accommodative monetary policy are all supporting above-trend growth in advanced economies. While China’s growth rate is holding up better than expected so far in the face of slowing credit growth; Russia and Brazil continue to recover slowly.

Political risk is a key determinant of sovereign creditworthiness, Ed Parker, Head of EMEA Sovereign Ratings and James McCormack, Global Head of Sovereign Ratings, say.

They highlight that political and governance issues were the driving or supporting factors in a cumulative 47% of sovereign downgrades, rating crises, or defaults from 1997 to present. They point to current political events that may negatively affect ratings such as:

• Activity in the Korean Peninsula

• The Gulf and wider Middle Eastern tensions

• US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal

• Global oil prices

Tune into the latest Fixed Interests and listen to James McCormack, Global Head of Sovereigns & Supranational Group, Fitch Ratings and Andrew Fennell, Director, Sovereigns, Fitch Ratings, discuss Fitch’s recent affirmation of China’s ‘A+’ rating. James and Andrew explore current policy settings, the growth outlook, and provide insights into the deleveraging story whilst giving Fitch’s view on whether household debt will become a credit issue.