Focus on Politics

One week into the official election campaign and the hyperbole is flying thick and fast.

"That's absolute nonsense" - Labour leader Chris Hipkins

One week into the official election campaign and the hyperbole is flying thick and fast.

Distractions persisted throughout the week, with protesters at the major parties' campaign launches, outrage over advertising, and MPs spreading blatant misinformation.

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Labour's campaign launch debuted its free dental policy for under-30s and National put on a slick made-for-TV affair, with both facing disruption attempts from supporters of fringe political parties.

National cried foul over a union advert calling Christopher Luxon risky and out-of-touch - then had to defend its own attack ads.

Labour meanwhile came under criticism for spreading misinformation after its MPs were caught over-egging their scare campaign as their polling continues to slide.

This week's Focus on Politics is RNZ's first roundtable discussion covering the major happenings of the 2023 election campaign. Political editor Jane Patterson, deputy political editor Craig McCulloch, and political reporter Anneke Smith spoke to Morning Report host Corin Dann about the first official week on the road.

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The Parliamentary term came to an end this week after a tumultuous term, and Labour and National's election campaigns are launching this weekend - with just six weeks remaining before the big day.

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'This is a classic MMP drag race we're entering into, where every vote will count' - Megan Woods

The Parliamentary term came to an end this week after a tumultuous term, and Labour and National's election campaigns are launching this weekend - with just six weeks remaining before the big day.

Knowing voters will ultimately decide their future, the parties spoke about their position and plans for the coming campaign - and considerations for any negotiations afterwards.

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Labour

Labour's campaign chair Megan Woods with leader Chris Hipkins at the launch of a new housing development. (file photo)

The incumbent Labour Party is campaigning for a third term but it will be an uphill battle, with the latest 1News-Verian poll predicting National and ACT could comfortably form the next government. Labour gave voters a taste of its campaign strategy this week, warning of cuts and changes under a potential National-ACT government.

Labour campaign chair Megan Woods tells RNZ's Katie Scotcher campaigns are a contest of ideas and "we will run a positive and a clean campaign - but that does not mean that we will not engage in a robust contest of ideas".

"The guarantee we make to every New Zealander is that we will play the ball - not the person - but we should be holding National and ACT to account for the ideas that they're putting out there," Woods says.

"I actually think the campaign is in really good shape, and I think that, you know, we've been in this situation before. It feels a bit like 2005 - there's everything to fight for. We need to be re-elected so we can ensure the gains we've made are bedded in and we can continue to make those positive changes for New Zealand."

She says the polls are not surprising, major rival National's party vote has barely shifted in the past year, and there is plenty of time left in the campaign. …

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The government's pointed to vapes as a key weapon in the war against cigarettes.

"This was a sluggish government response," - Health Coalition Aotearoa co-chair Boyd Swinburn

The government's pointed to vapes as a key weapon in the war against cigarettes.

In the rush to reach its smokefree targets, however, there are fears the horse has bolted - with children exposed to a whole new addiction.

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Vapes were in an unregulated wild-west market until 2020, when the government set a minimum age of 18, banned advertising, and restricted flavours to tobacco, menthol and mint - unless sold by specialist retailers. Those retailers have since continued to spread, many within reach of their most vulnerable customers: children.

Vaping in under-18s tripled between 2019 and 2021.

Education Minister Jan Tinetti told RNZ's education correspondent John Gerritsen vaping was being raised with her constantly: "I have principals that tell me this is just about their number one issue - particularly in secondary," she says. "I think out of the four schools that I went into last week, every single one of them brought vaping up to me."

Health Coalition Aotearoa co-chair Boyd Swinburn says the government's been slow to respond.

"There's a few years that we didn't have any regulations on the books and the vape shops have sprouted up like mushrooms - and dairies cut themselves in half to be able to sell vapes because they've got such a high profit margin that it makes them a bit irresistible really. So now we're having to deal with reversing that trend, which is much harder than having to prevent it in the first place."

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has long talked about striking a balance between discouraging children from taking up the habit while encouraging it as a tool to help smokers quit.

The smokefree goal has been championed by Health Minister Ayesha Verrall, whose world-first legislation prohibiting anyone born after 2008 from ever being able to buy tobacco came into force in January.

Health Minister Ayesha Verrall

Combined with ever-increasing excise taxes and reductions in nicotine levels and retailer numbers, smokers have never had more reasons to quit…

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Set the table for bread and butter - or in this case, fruit and veg: Labour fired its opening election campaign salvo on Sunday with a starkly populist pitch for tax-free produce.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins at the GST announcement on Sunday.

"Some of the tax purists will say that we should not do this... they are not the ones who are struggling" - Chris Hipkins

Set the table for bread and butter - or in this case, fruit and veg: Labour fired its opening election campaign salvo on Sunday with a starkly populist pitch for tax-free produce.

The party is pushing ahead with the long-rumoured policy despite hiccups in the announcement and near-universal opposition from experts - including in its own ranks: a clear sign the party is putting polling ahead of principle.

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It was the week Labour woke up to the election. From his home turf in Lower Hutt, Labour leader Chris Hipkins announced the plan to cut GST from unprocessed fruit and vegetables - a cost-of-living balm in tough times.

Eating your greens went down a treat with supporters, and a poll last month from Talbot Mills - Labour's pollster - found two-thirds in support. Critically, 80 percent of swing voters supported it, and nearly 70 percent said they'd be more likely to vote Labour as a result. A balm, then, to Labour's sliding poll numbers too.

The policy runs counter, however, to expert consensus - including members of Labour's caucus - who have long rubbished the policy, tax theory and international evidence showing it would be little help to those struggling and impose new, expensive burdens on the tax system.

RNZ spoke to 12 tax policy experts and economists: the closest to a supporter that could be found was a former advisor to Finance Minister Grant Robertson saying it should be considered - but it wouldn't be his first choice.

Hipkins says the policy's not intended to help tax experts - but the government's own tax working group had highlighted that only a small portion of savings from removing the tax would flow through to lower prices at the checkout, the majority ending up instead in the pockets of supermarkets and producers. As an untargeted measure, the small savings that do get passed on would be of more overall benefit to the well-off: an inefficient way to help the needy, considering the cost to the taxpayer. …

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ACT has not only held onto the 10-fold increase in voter support it enjoyed last election, it's maintained a stable caucus and gained further traction.

ACT's leader David Seymour (centre-right) is known to many New Zealanders; his MPs like Karen Chhour, Brooke van Velden and Nicole McKee (left-to-right) less so.

ACT has not only held onto the 10-fold increase in voter support it enjoyed last election, it's maintained a stable caucus and gained further traction.

With polls anticipating an even bigger stable of MPs after October, the minor party is lining up for a potentially major say in the shape of the next government.

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The results have also trended towards the National Party being able to form a government solely with libertarian ACT's support, meaning not just more MPs, but seats in Cabinet, i.e. coveted ministerial positions.

The mid-July 1News-Verian poll projected 46 seats for National and 15 for ACT, just reaching the 61-seat threshold for being able to form a majority government. Newshub-Reid at the end of last month had National and ACT with one further seat each. Most recently though, the Taxpayers Union-Curia poll had National with 44 seats and ACT on 17 - an even bigger proportion for the smaller party.

Read more:

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However, that last poll also had New Zealand First returning to Parliament, and while National and ACT could form a government on those numbers, the margin is incredibly slim. ACT has also ruled out working with NZ First, which has been appealing to a similar voting base.

National has been careful to avoid alienating either party, and exactly how that shakes out will be a question that remains unanswered until after the election.

What seems clear is ACT is on track for expansion and a bigger role in decision-making than ever before. 

Leader David Seymour has become a familiar face in New Zealand politics, but the other candidates aren't so well known.

Who are they? And what do they want to achieve in Parliament? …

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With recent polling giving both major parties cause for concern and the election less than three months away, the countdown is on - and the policies are starting to roll out.

"There is no clear winner coming out of any of the opinion polls at the moment and that means that it's game on," - Chris Hipkins

With recent polling giving both major parties cause for concern and the election less than three months away, the countdown is on - and the policies are starting to roll out.

Labour has launched accusations of fiscal mismanagement over one of National's this week, but had to defend against the same after worsening economic forecasts.

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National's leader Christopher Luxon started the week with a 10-year, nearly $25b plan promising a suite of new roads and rapid transit in Auckland.

Labour's Transport Minister David Parker was soon crying foul on National's costings, saying they did not take inflation costs into account and were in some cases years out of date; he estimated just four of the 13 new roads were between $2.4b and $4.8b short based on the latest costings.

National said it used officially provided costings, and lambasted Labour's own financial nous -  but the question of how that shortfall would be filled remained unanswered.

That was the first "fiscal hole" of the week, a callback to Steven Joyce's dubious 2017 accusation that Labour was $11.7b short in funding its promises, and Labour's 2020 better-received accusation in return.

National says its 2023 transport policy would be funded from three sources: taxes, reallocations, and $9.5b in private equity. Hipkins targeted the latter on Tuesday to reveal the week's second "fiscal hole" - a rather ambitious use of the phrase.

"The National Party now appear to have a $10b hole in their transport plans, where they think the Infrastructure Commission can just magic up $10b out of nowhere," he said. "Even if it was coming through things like private equity, through public private partnerships, end of the day someone's still got to pay for that."…

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Tragic circumstances putting a halt to the political career of one of Labour's rising stars, East Coast MP Kiri Allan, was just the start of the party's headaches this week.

East Coast MP Kiri Allan resigned her ministerial portfolios this week after being charged over her involvement in a car crash in Wellington.

"I cannot express the remorse I feel," - Kiri Allan

Tragic circumstances putting a halt to the political career of one of Labour's rising stars, East Coast MP Kiri Allan, was just the start of the party's headaches this week.

Along with speculation over its tax plans and signs of caucus disunity, leader Chris Hipkins is left with an incredible challenge to refocus Labour on the fast-approaching election.

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Details were murky when the news broke on Morning Report: one person in custody after a two-car crash on Evans Bay Parade in Wellington about 9pm Sunday. Extraordinarily, that person was believed to be Justice Minister Kiri Allan, a detail confirmed by Prime Minister Chris Hipkins shortly after.

Hipkins said Allan was in extreme emotional distress at the time of the crash.

She was released about 1am, having been charged with careless use of a vehicle and refusing to accompany a police officer; and fined for returning an infringement-level alcohol breath test. Hipkins said her position in Cabinet was no longer tenable - something Allan agreed with, resigning all her portfolios. That afternoon, she confirmed on social media she would not contest the upcoming election including her East Coast electorate seat.

"For now, it is time to step out of the arena ... to heal myself and chart a new course," she wrote. "To the Prime Minister, I have undermined you and the trust you placed in me to do an important job for New Zealand. I cannot express the remorse I feel. I am so, so sorry."

She had recently been open about her struggles with mental health, posting on social media about taking time off after a relationship break-up. She took further leave during Parliament's two-week recess, pending a discussion with Hipkins about a series of claims - strenuously denied - of poor working relationships with staff.

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Justice Minister Kiri Allan resigns after being charged over car crash…

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In Focus on Politics, RNZ deputy political editor Craig McCulloch breaks down Labour's law-and-order week and the tragic events which brought it to an end.

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Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson says this election is the final chance to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, curb environmental degradation, and reduce inequality.

Marama Davidson

"We've got to be more bold. We've got to keep being bold," - Marama Davidson

Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson says this election is the final chance to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, curb environmental degradation, and reduce inequality.

Following bruising internal ructions over the past year, they will need to use this weekend's AGM to redirect supporters' frustration over lack of climate action into an increased vote.

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The party has spent this Parliamentary term in an unusual position, with two ministers outside Cabinet under MMP's first majority government. On one hand it has meant freedom to criticise the direction Labour was taking - Shaw saying he was "frustrated" eight times in two minutes during the party's State of the Planet event this year being one example.

That frustration with Labour is something the party is hoping to leverage in its election campaign. "We are already having people coming to us and being quite explicit, they've come from Labour, they're really interested to hear more," Davidson says. "So that's already happening. So we've got to be more bold. We've got to keep being bold."

But despite Labour's ministerial woes and the absence of Jacinda Ardern's so-called star power in this election, polls are showing little sign of cut-through with fence-sitters on the left. It's a contrast with ACT and National on the right, which Davidson puts down the Greens' "solution-focused" approach rather than criticism.

"Because we're not a lazy political party - and that strategy is appealing to the worst of us rather than the best of us, it gets particular cut-through that is quite click-bait driven," she says.

You can expect to hear more of their policies over the next three months, including the release of their manifesto on Sunday. They do also have a third player in the left-leaning bloc to contend with. Te Pāti Māori recently called for Shaw to step down as Climate Minister. …

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Prime Minister Chris Hipkins' week-long trip to China centred on a meeting with China's President Xi Jinping, one of the world's most powerful men.

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins meets with President Xi Jinping.

"I was able to re-register New Zealand's concerns and restate our position," - Chris Hipkins

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins' week-long trip to China centred on a meeting with China's President Xi Jinping, one of the world's most powerful men.

Amid tense geostrategic conditions and with a trip to NATO in Europe looming, the stakes were sky high - but his diplomatic dance with the dragon was largely a success.

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The meeting with Xi took place late on Tuesday (NZ time), featuring the usual pleasantries and ceremonial handshaking. In opening statements ahead of their 40-minute behind-closed-doors chat, they spoke about the strength of the China-New Zealand relationship.

"Our bilateral ties have continued to grow in a sound and steady manner. Amid the changing international landscape, our relationship has remained robust and strong," Xi said, his words translated.

He said he always attached great importance to the relationship, described Hipkins' visit as "very meaningful", and said the international community was watching closely.

Hipkins himself noted the milestone of 50 years of diplomatic relations, and said the meeting "builds on the foundations laid before me".

Read more:

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PM on China visit: 'There is a huge market here for NZ products

Hipkins meets Xi: behind the handshakes NZ walks increasingly fine line

Nanaia Mahuta: China meeting was 'robust'

PM having to find his diplomatic feet fast ahead of high-stakes China visit

RNZ Political Editor Jane Patterson - on the ground in Beijing - described it as a warm reception but noted the layout of the meeting: seated some distance from one another at a large table in the enormous Great Hall of the People on the edge of Tiananmen Square.

Hipkins and Xi meet in China, surrounded by officials and delegates.

Afterwards, Hipkins described the meeting as "warm and constructive" and "at no point adversarial", but relatively high level…

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