In FPL, much like with the study of history, we must analyze the past to better inform our actions in the future. We must never repeat the same mistakes—such as buying Diogo Jota. He was part of a combined Liverpool and Arsenal sextuple-up that netted me a grand total of two returns. How glorious. In response, we conduct a thorough dissection of the best players to invest in for FPL managers who still have their first Wildcard. Who can replace our underwhelming Liverpool and Arsenal assets (read: liabilities)? We explore the potential of Crystal Palace players with an excellent upcoming fixture run, the possibility of an Ollie Watkins resurgence sans Jhon Durán, and the fearsomeness of an in-form Newcastle attack powered by Joelinton. The indefatigable Brazilian also prompts us to look into the prevalence of true ambipedality in the Premier League. Who knew Aaron Hickey and Santi Cazorla had so much in common?

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As the midway point of the season approaches, both Jacob and Jiayang find themselves in the rather strange position of still having their first Wildcard and yet lacking any desire to use it. We try to discuss the best options position-by-position, but are quickly faced with the slightly depressing truth that there simply aren’t that many truly desirable players in the game right now. The situation is especially dire among the midfielders and forwards—so dire, in fact, that we even toy with the idea of playing four defenders plus six attackers (instead of the typical seven). The dryness of the current state of the game dovetails nicely with a brief discussion about Jacob’s generally conservative style of playing FPL—is such a philosophy overly lenient towards middling performers, letting them linger in one’s team far beyond their welcome?

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Title says it all, really. Five losses and a draw after being up 3-0 … there has surely never been a bleaker moment in a Pep team. Maybe Rodri really is just that important, as Jacob explains through an insightful “field tilt” visualization. Our first Dilemma Deliberation is more theoretical (though very applicable): Is it better to start a goalkeeper from a worse defense against a worse attack, or a goalkeeper from a better defense against a better attack? We posit that it’s quite helpful to imagine yourself owning an attacker from each of the opposing teams and comparing how confident you feel in each attacker. On a very practical note, we then consider a few teams whose fixtures are about to plummet and look at potential replacements for popular assets from these teams. Along the way, Darwin Núñez, Alejandro Garnacho, Timo Werner, and Adama Traoré get mentioned in the same group; brownie points if you can figure out what it is! Finally, we round the episode off with captaincy—would it be madness to captain any player against City? In their current pep-less (intentionally lowercase, mind you) state, perhaps not …

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The Premier League may have taken last weekend off, but here at the Fortress, dilemmas have been brewing—and this is the episode where we bring them to the fore. To start, we revisit the idea of selling Haaland by exploring other permutations that the extra cash can fund. Regular listeners will know that we’re a very interdisciplinary podcast; accordingly, Jiayang references Hegel’s assertion that changes in quantity may eventually result in changes in quality as a metaphor to question how close managers are to actually committing to the act. Soon afterwards, we arrive at our first unanswerable question: How much weight should we be putting on small nuggets of information—like the fact that Haaland will likely be facing Dragusin instead of Van de Ven? Our second Dilemma Deliberation centers around a case study of Jiayang’s team: is it worth it to bring in Palmer for a -8 hit? To answer this question, we spontaneously decide to do something unprecedented: we transplant our captaincy segment right into the heart of our Dilemma Deliberations. In the process, we stumble across our second unanswerable question: What’s the tradeoff between sample accuracy and sample size, particularly at this point in the season when only 11 games have been played? After much grappling, we finally land on our third unanswerable question: Is intentionally creating sunk costs a winning strategy? Though definitive conclusions remain elusive, we hope the act of posing and confronting such questions are continually advancing the game forward. There is beauty in trying.

Today’s episode centers around a single Tweet from FPL 420 (@420fpl) at 5:45 PM on October 27, 2024: “😂Your GW10 points were mostly decided weeks ago mate.” Despite the seemingly light-hearted, jovial tone evoked by the laughing emoji, the statement struck us as being quite profound. There is genuine evidence corroborating this claim—just take the all-too-painful example of Jiayang buying Colwill instead of Aina to replace Hall in GW 6, resulting in a remarkable 20-point swing (an excellent demonstration of the macroeconomic phenomenon of the “multiplier effect”). If our past determines our present and our present determines our future, then which temporal state should we live in? We then pivot to the question of how viable it is to have three premium midfielders at the expense of Haaland—and in the process of conducting a cost-benefit analysis using the likelihood of owning the best captaincy option each gameweek, Jacob strays dangerously close to revisionism before Jiayang reels him in.

For the most part, I try to employ a well-balanced mixture of professionalism and wittiness when writing these episode blurbs. But from the bottom of my heart, that was one of the most enjoyable episodes I’ve ever had the pleasure of recording. Regular listeners will know that the Fortress enters flow state whenever we sink our teeth into a particularly juicy thought experiment—and the one explored in this episode might just be our crown jewel. It all started when Jiayang asked Jacob if he would be happy owning a player whose points were guaranteed to follow the pattern of a sinusoidal function; the odyssey that ensued (or rather, in keeping with the general principle of opting for active over passive voice, “the ensuing odyssey”) takes us on a whirlwind from the nostalgia of James Ward-Prowse’s classic 150-point seasons to the contemporary pertinence of the Palmer-Son-Saka hokey-cokey. Sit back, relax, and enjoy this timeless classic (if you know, you know)...

This week, Jiayang had to get a lot off his chest. His transfer in Solanke accumulated a grand total of 0.11 xGI in a four-goal demolition of West Ham, Calvert-Lewin and Eze continued to contend for the coveted title of Biggest Twat in his team, and his captain Haaland decided to do his best Colorado River impression by extending his dry run for yet another gameweek. Dilemma Deliberations-wise, we begin by focusing on Arsenal’s and Aston Villa’s poor upcoming fixtures (“well-endowed on the y-axis and challenged on the x-axis,” as one might say). Then, we turn our attention towards the bigger-picture question of whether or not we ought to listen to our guts—though perhaps the answer depends on whether or not our gut microbiomes are healthy and well-balanced. And finally, despite Haaland’s three successive blanks, it seems like he simply MUST be our captain for GW 9—but what if our guts are leading us towards Mbeumo against Ipswich at home? These are the questions…

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Today, Donald Trump mentioned UTDTrey in a Tweet—which can only spell disaster for Trump’s campaign, since nobody can escape the Trey jinx. It’s no surprise, then, that the team he reps has steadily been on the decline since he joined Twitter. As Jacob says, United are towing the line between being hated and being forgotten—and for a franchise like Manchester United, the latter might be worse. Gameweek 6 also saw City draw to Newcastle, Arsenal avoid dropping points at the death against Leicester, and a certain Cole Palmer become the first and only player in Premier League history to score four goals in one half of football. We start our Dilemma Deliberations with this starboy—is now the time? Should he have been included in our discussions about the trifecta of Haaland, Salah, and Saka last week? What even is the word for trifecta, but … four? Quadfecta? Superfecta? We then conjecture about whether or not the Philip Walter Foden train is fast approaching the station, and round off the segment with a theoretical lament on our abysmal team values (but seriously, it’s an important issue!). Finally, captaincy indeed seems to be a decision between our newly minted Fantastic Four—which fixture looks like the friendliest of the bunch?

Mikel Arteta almost pulled off the low block of the century against Man City, condemning City to feed their onslaught through Rúben Dias—hardly the most creative player in their team. Due to the nature of this low block (and perhaps due in part to his ghosting tendencies), Kai Havertz completed a grand total of 0 out of 5 attempted passes over the course of the 90 minutes. Nonetheless, he is a contender for the third best Arsenal asset to own, behind Saka and Gabriel, and this assessment forms the meat and potatoes of this episode of the FPL Fortress. Elsewhere, we also discuss whether the nearly 800,000 managers who have bought Luis Díaz made a good choice, as well as a grave mistake that Wildcarders and non-Wildcarders alike seem to be making. Finally, captaincy this week seems to be a relatively close call between the Trifecta—Saka at home to Leicester, Salah away to a Wolves that conceded 6 to Chelsea, or Haaland against a thoroughly unremarkable Newcastle?

The talk of the town is the Gameweek 6 Wildcard. Are Arsenal’s and City’s good fixtures enough to warrant pressing the button? Just how in the mud does your team need to be in order for the Wildcard to be worth it? In this episode, we try to work through these questions and analyze the cheap Isak replacements—though there are many options, few are all that exciting. And for once, the obvious captaincy choice doesn’t seem to be Haaland—but what do you do if you don’t have Mo?