Russia’s military activity in Ukraine have had a significant influence on wheat prices over the past 11 months. Last May, wheat futures soared to record high levels as the Russian invasion of Ukraine halted Black Sea exports from one of the world’s primary wheat exporters. The subsequent arrival of a record Russian wheat crop - now put above 104 million tonnes - has resulted in notable wheat exports, increasing their market share in world markets. This has contributed to wheat futures prices falling back to levels not seen before the conflict. This week, official analysts raised this season’s Russian wheat export estimate to 45.5 million tonnes, up from 33 million tonnes last season. Cheap Russian wheat sales saw the country’s export pace rise by one million tonnes per week in December. 

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