Frontrunner

The end of last week saw the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) publish its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Any expectations for a bullish report to boost prices were dashed.

World production was cut 1.5 million tonnes to 796.88 million tonnes and there was also a 900,000-tonne rise in consumption which presented a potential marked cut in year-end stocks. However, increases for carry-in Canadian stock to this season to align with StatsCan leaves year-end stocks up 600,000 tonnes on last month to a total of 257.22 million tonnes. Despite this being eight million tonnes down on last year, the market subsequently found ready sellers.

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

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Wheat futures prices have stabilised over the past week, sitting approximately 7% above their August lows. There is an increasing number of supporting elements to hold prices up, but nothing sufficient enough to move them on to another level yet.

Strong Russian and Ukraine exports dominate world trade and spot Russian wheat offers remain anchored at about $218/t FOB, failing to follow outside markets higher. The lack of rain and low soil moisture for drilling crop '25 is an additional watch for an extensive area covering Eastern Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan. Russian winter drilling is reported to be at its slowest pace since 2013 because of the dryness. According to the Ukraine Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, just 2% of Ukraine winter wheat area is planted due to record high temperatures and dryness.  

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

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Wheat markets have enjoyed a buoyant start to September. Just three days into the new month Paris futures topped a 9% price gain from their contract lows seen trading during the last week of August. With the US and EU harvests nearing completion and harvest farm selling pressure drying up, trade liquidity has become an issue at the lower price levels. Speculative short covering has provided buying interest, although the primary negative wheat price driver remains in play. 

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

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This season’s leisurely pace of EU wheat exports is contributing to market negativity. To the week ending 25th August, exports are ahead by 238,000 tonnes to a total of 3.927 million tonnes which compares with 5.038 million tonnes last season.

There is a lower surplus of around 27 million tonnes which is four million tonnes below last year. According to analysts Stratégie Grains, this figure will leave a carryover stock almost four million tonnes lower than the carry in. Therefore, it would be premature to be overly concerned for the slower export pace at this stage. 

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

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Poor EU wheat export demand, particularly for French wheat, sent Paris wheat futures to their lowest levels since the middle of March. 

EU wheat shipments were up just 337,000 tonnes on the week to 3.553 million tonnes which compares to 4.527 million tonnes in the same period last year. Romania is the top EU shipper so far with close to 1.5 million tonnes, almost three times the French pace. Egypt has received the most wheat with imports of 505,000 tonnes, followed by Nigeria and Morocco.

The UK is number five on the list, having taken 202,000 tonnes already - which includes German milling wheat. The low protein issues, coupled with the low planted area of UK bread making varieties for this harvest, is limiting availability for our domestic millers. German milling wheat imports look set to be the largest since 2012 as a result and could exceed one million tonnes.

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

For other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribe

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On Monday this week the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its August World Agricultural Supply Demands Estimate (WASDE). Traders expected to see a slight increase in US wheat production, but despite seeing a higher yield, the USDA also saw a smaller harvested area. This left US wheat production dropping from the previous estimate of 54.66 million tonnes to 53.93 million tonnes. 

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

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Improving production prospects for US wheat and corn has encouraged speculative funds to build near record short positions in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures, sending markets to contract lows at the end of July. The subsequent weakness in the US dollar – which has enabled US grains to be more competitive in export markets - has allowed for a modest wheat price recovery, but strong crop ratings temper any notable buying enthusiasm.

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

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Up until Wednesday, the past week has seen the bears take control of the market.

London wheat futures for the November contract opened at £195.75/t last Thursday before shedding £8.50/t to a low of £187.25/t on Tuesday – they recovered by close of play Wednesday.

Paris wheat futures for the December contract followed a similar pattern. They opened at €231.25/t last Thursday, then dropped by €9.75/t to a low of €221.50/t and recovered on Wednesday by closing at €227.50/t. 

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

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Reports of poor quality and plunging crop ratings triggered a sharp price rally for wheat futures markets earlier this week, as the French wheat harvest progressed northwards. Paris wheat futures found strength, adding 12 euros from its recent low last week.

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

For other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribe

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Last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its July World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimates (WASDE) report, making notable increases for 2024 world wheat production which was increased by 5.4 million tonnes on the previous report.

This was particularly bearish data which triggered another wave of speculative fund selling and subsequently, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures lost a further 6% of their value - striking new contract lows.

Higher US wheat supply is the main reason for the total increase, with the USDA seeing the US wheat harvested area rising to 38.8 million acres. Yields are seen rising by 2.4 bushels per acre on the USDA's previous estimate to a total of 51.8 bushels per acre. This leaves a crop of 54.6 million tonnes - up 3.6 million tonnes on previous estimate and is the largest US wheat crop since 2016.

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

For other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribe

Follow Frontier Agriculture on Twitter at www.twitter.com/FrontierAg

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