Frontrunner

The markets have moved down since the beginning of November. The London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE) May '25 contract reached a high of £195/t on 1st November before slowly drifting off to a low of £191.50/t. The Marché à Terme International de France (MATIF) December '24 contract followed a similar track, opening November with a high of £221.50/t before drifting off to a low of €212.25/t.

During intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

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The beginning of the week saw wheat futures markets extend their losses, with London wheat futures losing almost 8% of their value since the peak on 3rd October. Improving wheat crop prospects for Argentina this season, as well as for the EU and UK in 2025, encouraged the selling.  

The Rosario Grains Exchange raised its Argentina wheat production estimate to 19.5 million tonnes following recent rains. It also raised the wheat export estimate to 13.3 million tonnes, which if achieved would be the second highest ever. Crop ratings for Argentinian wheat increased from 31% to 38%, ‘good/excellent’. 

During intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

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Having seen a spell of speculative fund short covering propel wheat futures prices to multi-week highs earlier this month, markets have subsequently eased lower again.

Questions remain over Russian wheat exports and the country’s 2025 wheat production potential. However, in the near positions there is a more than adequate supply and with good cover, buyers are back on the side lines. Russian weekly wheat shipments remain at about one million tonnes per week, but this week the country missed out in one international tender. 

During intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

For other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribe

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The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report last Friday but presented no bullish surprises which contributed to a softer spell for world wheat prices.

Minor cuts in production for Brazil, the EU, India and Russia, partly offset by increases for Ukraine, sees world production down 2.8 million tonnes on the previous estimate to a total of 794.08 million tonnes. However, this is still almost four million tonnes up on last year.

During intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

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Geopolitical issues triggered spells of speculative short covering in futures markets this week. Trader concerns over the wider repercussions of a potential retaliation by Israel against Iran increased crude oil prices by over 3% on Monday to over $80/t, its highest since 19th July. This had a positive impact on other commodity markets, including wheat.

Away from the tensions in the Middle East, Russian missile strikes on two Ukrainian Black Sea ports, including Odessa, resulted in damage to grain carrying vessels - another reminder of the potential risk around shipping from the world’s cheapest wheat source. 

During intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

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Towards the end of last month, speculative traders extended their short positions in Paris wheat futures. They expected weaker prices due to the poor EU wheat export pace and Russia and Ukraine dominating world wheat trade.

Latterly, adverse EU weather raised concerns for winter planting which triggered some short covering and a lift in futures prices. However, news broke on Tuesday that Iran had launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel accelerated the short covering, leading to a sharp jump in all wheat futures markets. 

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

For other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribe

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Further speculative fund short covering helped wheat prices move higher earlier this week. London wheat futures recovered £3 from last week's low, although further gains to match other wheat futures markets were capped by another spell of sterling strength. The pound reached its highest level against the euro and the US dollar since April 2022, with investors attracted by the Bank of England leaving the UK base rate unchanged as the Federal Reserve cut US interest rates by 0.5%. 

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

For other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribe

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The end of last week saw the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) publish its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Any expectations for a bullish report to boost prices were dashed.

World production was cut 1.5 million tonnes to 796.88 million tonnes and there was also a 900,000-tonne rise in consumption which presented a potential marked cut in year-end stocks. However, increases for carry-in Canadian stock to this season to align with StatsCan leaves year-end stocks up 600,000 tonnes on last month to a total of 257.22 million tonnes. Despite this being eight million tonnes down on last year, the market subsequently found ready sellers.

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

For other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribe

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Wheat futures prices have stabilised over the past week, sitting approximately 7% above their August lows. There is an increasing number of supporting elements to hold prices up, but nothing sufficient enough to move them on to another level yet.

Strong Russian and Ukraine exports dominate world trade and spot Russian wheat offers remain anchored at about $218/t FOB, failing to follow outside markets higher. The lack of rain and low soil moisture for drilling crop '25 is an additional watch for an extensive area covering Eastern Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan. Russian winter drilling is reported to be at its slowest pace since 2013 because of the dryness. According to the Ukraine Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, just 2% of Ukraine winter wheat area is planted due to record high temperatures and dryness.  

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

For other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribe

Follow Frontier Agriculture on Twitter at www.twitter.com/FrontierAg

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Wheat markets have enjoyed a buoyant start to September. Just three days into the new month Paris futures topped a 9% price gain from their contract lows seen trading during the last week of August. With the US and EU harvests nearing completion and harvest farm selling pressure drying up, trade liquidity has become an issue at the lower price levels. Speculative short covering has provided buying interest, although the primary negative wheat price driver remains in play. 

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

For other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribe

Follow Frontier Agriculture on Twitter at www.twitter.com/FrontierAg

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.