US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures continued to fall this week and by close of business on Thursday were 10% below the 4-year highs they peaked at in October. The increasing size of the Australian, Canadian and Indian wheat crops as well as a proposed increase in Russian export quota combine to signal ample wheat supplies and a bearish feel to markets.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES) increased its official Australian wheat crop estimate to what would be the second highest on record at 31.17 million tonnes. However, some private analysts see the potential for up to 35 million tonnes, which would equal the previous record set four years ago. Australian wheat futures have dropped to a 13-week low, highlighting the need to be competitive in export markets while still facing what is, effectively, a ban from the Chinese market.

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